TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 20, 2016 12:55:25 GMT -5
Currently, our raw offensive efficiency (unadjusted for competition) is 1.068 points per possession. That's 67th nationally. Last year, it was 1.032, and the two previous years it was right around 1.055. So, the efficiency is better this year, but not wildly so. Adjusted for competition, we're 53rd nationally this year. We finished 66th last year. So, again, better this year, but not terrifically. We might have fewer droughts in terms of time of game elapsed, but don't forget that a lot of that is pace of play (76th this year vs. 168th last year), so it doesn't necessarily mean we're doing much better overall, though it may seem that way. All that said, my sense is that the offense is improved, and will continue to improve as guys get more comfortable. Rodney is the closest thing we have to a ball stopper, and he's much "better" than DSR was because at least he does things quickly when he has the ball. So, our overall movement is much improved. And we don't have inefficient guys ending possessions (Isaac, for example) as often. The right guys are taking shots. If we can shore up the defense further, we're likely to get more easy transition opportunities also. Forget the numbers. Whereas the last few years I've found myself screaming at the TV (or at the game), "Would someone just take it to the hoop!", this year I've found myself screaming, "Can't anyone keep their man from taking it to the hoop!". No way this year we've had the regular extended droughts we had the last few years. Sure we've probably had a few but nothing like the ones we became accustomed to after Otto left. Don't you remember all those wonderful moments watching guys pass the ball around the perimeter only to clank a desperation 3 pointer? No, this year, with LJ and Pryor, we've had no problem scoring (if I recall Pryor's 3 point and FG percentages are ridiculous and LJ's aren't far behind). Nope this year it has to be all about defense. I really think the longer layoffs between games gave JT3 time to work with these guys and allowed these guys to figure some defensive things out. Anyone notice that Syracuse scored 105 points last night? You know what's funny? The 2013 team was the worst offense JT3 has had. They were 80th in the country in adjusted efficiency, which is the only time other than 2016 (and, as of now, this year) that their offense has been outside the top 50 in the country during his time here. The Hoyas haven't had a top 20 offense since 2010.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 20, 2016 12:52:57 GMT -5
They have had a few droughts this year where they go for a few minutes without a field goal, but they usually continue to score some points because they get to the line so much better than they did for the last few years. I think the offense is much more efficient than it has been for a couple of years. Maybe it is just a case of them having two legit scoring options this year than makes it seem better but they certainly seem to be a much more potent offense. The poor rebounding and careless turnovers are what could cost them games this year more than the offense. Currently, our raw offensive efficiency (unadjusted for competition) is 1.068 points per possession. That's 67th nationally. Last year, it was 1.032, and the two previous years it was right around 1.055. So, the efficiency is better this year, but not wildly so. Adjusted for competition, we're 53rd nationally this year. We finished 66th last year. So, again, better this year, but not terrifically. We might have fewer droughts in terms of time of game elapsed, but don't forget that a lot of that is pace of play (76th this year vs. 168th last year), so it doesn't necessarily mean we're doing much better overall, though it may seem that way. All that said, my sense is that the offense is improved, and will continue to improve as guys get more comfortable. Rodney is the closest thing we have to a ball stopper, and he's much "better" than DSR was because at least he does things quickly when he has the ball. So, our overall movement is much improved. And we don't have inefficient guys ending possessions (Isaac, for example) as often. The right guys are taking shots. If we can shore up the defense further, we're likely to get more easy transition opportunities also. In the first three games we played, we scored more than 1 point per possession, but only barely against Maryland (1.01ppp) and Arkansas St. (1.01ppp). We did run up the score against USC-Upstate (1.38ppp), but that was clearly a function of the competition. We were below 0.95ppp in every game in Maui. The competition isn't the same as in Hawaii, but since we got back to the continental U.S., we've cleared 1.1 ppp in every game, so we've definitely improved. And when you're averaging over 70 possessions, that 0.1 extra points per possession means another 7 points in the box score, which is also the difference between us being 9-2 (if we'd played better to start) or us being 5-6 (if we hadn't improved).
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 19, 2016 17:22:30 GMT -5
I mentioned this in another thread but Pryor is currently ranked 40th in the country in points per game. Still early but I think it is likely that the Hoyas got the best grad transfer in 2016 and maybe the best transfer of the year, period. He's 56th in offensive rating, 22nd in eFG% and 16th in true shooting percentage. He's been an offensive force.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 19, 2016 15:38:55 GMT -5
He's clearly the next Dwayne Wade. Mostly kidding but their skills and numbers are similar. DWade was a much better passer though and LJ is shooting from deep better this year. DWade was so good as a junior. 21.5 ppg, 6.3rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and shot 50.1% from the floor (although only 31.8% from a shorter three point line). Peak's obviously not DWade, but if you squint you can see the similarities in their stats.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 15, 2016 12:00:33 GMT -5
Ike's regression was almost entirely about losing his ability to shoot. I'm not a shot doctor or anything, but it looked mechanical, in that his shot lost that nice arc it had his freshman year, but who knows if it was mental issues leading to mechanical trouble, or some tweak he (or the coaching staff) introduced, or if he just got sloppy with his mechanics and then couldn't fix them again.
Of course, if he had kept his shot, that wouldn't have necessarily changed his lack of progress on the boards/with his handle/on defense
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 15, 2016 11:55:53 GMT -5
Appreciate the optimism, but the sad fact is that Georgetown has done this just once in the last 27 seasons. Oh my! I would not have thought this was the case. To be fair, prior to last year, Seton Hall hadn't won a BET since 1993, prior to 2015 Nova had only won one BET (in 1995) and prior to 2014 Providence had only won one BET (in 1994). So our 10 year drought isn't anywhere near as long as the 20+ year droughts that have been snapped in the past three years.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 13, 2016 14:31:14 GMT -5
I think this is a great thing. Before we used to he worried that the BE wouldn't provide enough quality wins. Now we have the opposite problem. We're either good or we're not, but at least the BE gives us opportunity to turn it around. Hoyas need to get past Syracuse before worrying about the conference. One game at a time. Well, the nice thing is that after the next six games, we'll pretty much know whether we have something or not.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 12, 2016 17:39:37 GMT -5
Finish above .500 in BE play and that will make a significant statement. We win 11 BE games and we should be in...and I am assuming a split with uconn and cuse and winning out our remaining non conference schedule. 19 wins however we get there should do it considering SOS. I think B&G has it right--18 wins and we're on the bubble, 19 wins gets us in for sure. If we can go 2-1 in non-conference play that means 10-8 and a BET win. KenPom currently has us projected at 15-16 (8-10), so we need to keep improving, but the Big East is definitely strong enough that a winning record and 18/19 wins will have us squarely in the RPI top 50 with enough good wins to get in, and, with Arkansas St. still a top 30 RPI team, the Hoyas could conceivably have a resume without a loss outside the RPI top 100 (assuming they don't lose to DePaul/SJU/UNC Greensboro/UConn).
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 10, 2016 19:13:58 GMT -5
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 10, 2016 10:54:55 GMT -5
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 10, 2016 10:53:31 GMT -5
Excellent article. My only real hope for the Hoyas tomorrow is the long layoff since Elon. There is some reason to believe that we just weren't ready for the competition we faced in November. Too many new moving parts that needed to be coordinated and incorporated. JT3 has to have seen enough by now to know what works and what doesn't. I have to believe that considering how deep we are that given a weeks worth of practice we will look much better tomorrow. Plus, MD, Ike, and Caleb have had an extra week to heal. But if we don't look better tomorrow then all bets are off for the remainder of the season. Yeah, that's kind of where I am. A win today would show this team is improving and has a chance to get better and make noise in the Big East. If they lose though, it's hard to believe they'll actually be able to make that improvement. Of course, last year's Wisconsin team, lost two home games to Milwaukee and Marquette in early December and then started out the Big 10 season 1-4 (and were 9-9 in mid-January) before finishing 12-2 and making the Sweet Sixteen. So the season isn't over, even if they lose, although if that's the hat we're hanging our hopes on, it's a pretty big long shot.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 9, 2016 16:29:07 GMT -5
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 7, 2016 17:36:27 GMT -5
Just have to disagree. We can't write off a loss to this team and think it won't be an indication of how we perform the rest of the season. These are the games that challenge our defensive intensity. If we can contain LaSalle's offense then we may have a chance against Xavier, Nova, Creighton, Marquette. If we can't then in my mind it is a good indicator that we will be destroyed by quality BE teams. The fact that these mid majors play a different type of game than many major programs doesn't mean that we can ignore the weaknesses they expose. Our adversaries in the BE are watching these games too. They will be sure to incorporate changes in their game plans to attack our deficiencies. We have to correct those deficiencies and not assume they won't hurt us down the road. I understand where you are coming from doc, it may be true from a tournament resume point of view that a lot (if not everything) rests on the next few days. My only issue is that your post seems to suggest that whatever state the team is in now is somehow fixed and will not change going forward. It seems to me that the Hoyas are in a state of extreme flux. Veteran players are adapting (somewhat painfully at times) to a new offensive and a new defensive scheme. The team is also incorporating new faces in key roles. There is very little if any continuity carrying over from last year's squad, which is causing a significant amount of inconsistency. It is quite possible that this match-up against LaSalle is catching the Hoyas at a vulnerable point in that transition and it could get very ugly. It is also possible (but seems unreasonably optimisitic) that things click and they roll past LaSalle. Regardless of what happens against LaSalle, I think it's unfair to discount the possibility that the team will have grown, adjusted and better incorporated those new concepts and players by the time they face their Big East foes. It's also possible they never adjust or even regress. I guess my point is this team is struggling with a lot of change. It's shown flashes of what it can do, but those have been overshadowed by large stretches of incredibly frustrating inconsistency and hesitancy. Basically, if the Hoyas don't win 2 of their next 3 games, they'll enter conference play at 6-6 and need to go 12-6 or 11-7 plus a BET win to get to 18 wins, which leaves almost no margin of error. And it's hard to see them getting in to the tournament with fewer than 18 wins. Ok. St. in 2015 is the only team to make the NCAAs with 18 wins in the past five years. I think we should make the NCAAs if we get 18 wins, considering how deep the Big East is, but 17 wins probably isn't enough to get off the bubble.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 7, 2016 15:12:39 GMT -5
True indeed, the same could be said about their perimeter players.. Gtown needs perimeter help more than they need frontcourt help next season and beyond imo.. As it stands now, in 2018 the program will have 2 experienced/ legit handlers(Waters & Mosely).. That's not a good look to me, have to start building a roster for the long term.. Imo Arch and Hart yes, the rest of their perimeter players, no. If you can get a center who does the things that chef does you have to take him. Chef anchored the 5th best defense in the nation last year. Adding pieces like that is building a team for the long term imo.. I'd take an impact guard, I'd take an impact defensive center. It comes down to the player and fit. You still need balance.. I like the idea of getting a defense first center because III is really good at developing big guys' offensive game. Get a shot blocker and then teach him how to set picks and some post moves, rather than the other way around.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 6, 2016 11:35:43 GMT -5
How many more games would we have won last year if Campbell just makes one or two more wide open shots? I think at least 3-5, and perhaps more. His improved play is a really good sign. Lol Well, we lost 9 games by five or fewer points, so, the answer there is probably a lot, but I can't say I've gone back and looked to see how many shots Tre missed (let alone if they were open shots)
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 3, 2016 14:57:52 GMT -5
Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense. Elon also seems to rebound pretty well. They average, as I recall, about 39 a game, roughly 7 more per game than we have. Looking over their roster, they do have some size with a couple players in the 6-10, 6-11 range. They don't have any particularly significant wins but do have, as I recall, a win against USF. It's not much, but it does show they can beat teams from a bigger league. Total rebounds isn't a particularly good way to measure how good a team is at rebounding, because it's dependant on the total number of missed shots and tempo. Rebounding percentage is a better stat, because it tells you how many of the available rebounds a team got. For example, Georgetown got 24 defensive rebounds against UMCP and 26 against Oregon, but did a better job against UMCP, because they got 72% of the possible defensive rebounds against UMCP and only 62% against Oregon. Elon's ranked 215th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, so they have not been a good rebounding team this year--they're actually the worst in both categories of our opponents so far, other than coppin State. I got these stats from KenPom, but you have to pay (it's only $20) to see team stats on KenPom's site. They're free on sports-reference.com though.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 2, 2016 16:11:21 GMT -5
I don't know anything about Mnuchin, other than reading one article, but there seems to be a consensus that there's a problem picking a big bank executive/veteran to run Treasury. My question is--what kind of background do people want out for Secretary of Treasury? It would seem that having experience in banking (financing, M&A, etc) would be very valuable for that position.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 2, 2016 7:53:20 GMT -5
These next two games are a perfect barometer for where our defense is right now. On talent, we win easily. On execution, we shall see. Agreed. December was the point when the season was lost last year (with the 7 game losing streak at the end making sure the season was really lost). I think UNC Greensboro is scarier than Elon because unlike Elon, UNC Greensboro's strengths (offensive rebounding, creating turnovers) matches up with our weaknesses. 2017 KenPom Rank: Elon--129 LaSalle--107 UNC Greensboro--156 2016 KenPom Rank: Monmouth--95 UNC Asheville--131 The good news is that Elon isn't well positioned to exploit our weaknesses (excluding guard penetration, because, like all teams we face, they have guards on their roster). Elon is not a good rebounding team (they're around 210 in off. & def. rebounding percentage) and they are the worst offensive rebounding team the Hoyas have faced that isn't Coppin State. The Hoyas need to dominate the glass on both ends. Elon's about average at protecting the ball, so it won't be easy for the Hoyas to create turnovers, but they should be able to get some, and Elon's defense is really bad (210th in defensive efficiency), so if they can create points off of turnovers, the Hoyas should be able to score enough in the half court to win.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Nov 30, 2016 18:19:06 GMT -5
I think the guards we recruited were floor leaders who passed, dribbled out of pressure, ran the offense and scored in high school. I think the reason they are not as good at in college is because, let's face it, overall they arent as good as the 4 and 5 star guards Duke, UK and others get. To me, JTII has recruited as well as he could. Coaching, that's another argument... Here are the guards JT3 has recruited since 2010.. I took the position label from HoyaSaxa.com 2010 - Starks & Bowen 2011 - Trawick 2012 - DSR 2013 - N/A 2014 - Peak & Campbell 2015 - Johnson 2016 - Mosely, Pryor & Mulmore 2017 - Waters Of the players listed above only Starks, Campbell & Waters do we know for sure played the lead guard role in HS.. That's 3 kids in 8 recruiting classes.. I believe JT3 could have done a better job recruiting ball handling guards.. I count three / four guards (Trawick, Peak, Mosely, Waters) with the lateral quickness / ability to stay in front of a decently quick guard on defense (and Trawick and Peak took two years to figure out how not to foul)
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Nov 30, 2016 10:27:03 GMT -5
Between now and the start of the BE season it has to be all about DEFENSE. This team is talented enough offensively to hang with the best. But it is our inability to stop the other team from scoring that has killed us not just this year but last year as well. Unless we see a marked improvement in our DEFENSE over the next 3 weeks we will be in for a long BE season. A good sign that we are getting there would be holding Coppin to less than 50 points. If we can't do that to what is clearly one of the worst teams in the country then I don't care how great we look offensively. Agreed. This game should look like the USC-Upstate game, except with fewer offensive rebounds given up.
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