Tournament chances

[lda05816]

I currently go back and forth when trying to figure out if this team ultimately goes dancing. I'm curious as to the current opinions the rest of you have. Because we are fans/fanatics we tend to be overly optimistic or pessimistic so I'd like to phrase the question this way. If you had to wager your life savings on yes or no, does this year's team make the tournament?

To lead it off, if I made the bet today, my savings would bet No.

[trillesthoya]

My bet is no. The big east is simply too strong this year and we didn't do enough in our non-conference schedule to make up for that.

There are several things that could change my mind though

-a convincing win against Syracuse definitely improves our chances, we need wins against teams with names not just the likes of USC Upstate. Also have a shot against UCONN. They've shat the bed this season but a UCONN W is still UCONN W

-all of our players returning to full health. injuries have been a bigger problem than people are talking about for this team. IMO a healthy Marcus, Akoy, Kaleb and Isaac really changes the tone of this team.

-Isaac returns to form. We need him if we are going to make any noise this season. He doesn't need to be THE guy, but he needs to be our number three option. If he does get back to where he was end of freshman year/beginning of sophomore year, this is a top three team in the big east. not sure if thats possible at this point though.

-At the end of the day though, we just need to get better at closing games out. If we had closed out better against Arkansas State and Maryland this team very well could have been ranked.

If we make these fixes, we are a force. Don't think we'll get all four of these though.

[blueandgray]

Finish above .500 in BE play and that will make a significant statement. We win 11 BE games and we should be in...and I am assuming a split with uconn and cuse and winning out our remaining non conference schedule.

19 wins however we get there should do it considering SOS.

[lda05816]

Dec 12, 2016 17:12:33 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

Finish above .500 in BE play and that will make a significant statement. We win 11 BE games and we should be in...and I am assuming a split with uconn and cuse and winning out our remaining non conference schedule.

19 wins however we get there should do it considering SOS.

My biggest concern is how we get to 11 BE wins. Let's assume we go 2-4 against Creighton, Nova and Xavier (which I'd view as a success right now). We'd then need to go 9-3 in the rest of the games. Seems difficult but here's to hoping!

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Based on the stats over at RPIforecast we can have a pretty good idea what it will take for us to make the dance.


You can play around here: www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Georgetown.html
And create scenarios.

For instance if say we won out OOC, sweep st. John's and Depaul, get swept by Nova and split everything else we'd end up with a record of 19- 12 and an RPI of 40. That would have us dancing.

IF we lose @ cuse but beat Uconn and UNC greensboro and do the rest we get a record of 18-13 and an RPI of 50. If we win a game or two in the BET that would likely be enough to squeak in.

If we win out OOC and sweep st. John's and Depaul while splitting with everyone we can get to a record of 20-11 and an RPI of 30.

I could see a scenario where we win out OOC, Sweep St. John's, DePaul, Providence, and Marquette, But get swept by Nova, Seton Hall, and Xavier(the latter two due to rebounding) and split with Creighton and Butler. That gets us a record of 19-12 with an RPI of 41. That's good enough.

Most optimistic scenario I could see would be Win out OOC, sweep St. John's, DePaul, Providence, and Marquette; and split with everyone else. That gets us a record of 22-9 and an RPI of 22.

I think we get to the tournament. I think we're going to continue to improve as the season progresses.


It's important to note that unlike last year we wouldn't technically have any bad losses on the schedule. Arkansas st is currently projected to finish with an RPI of 77. We already have one good RPI win in Oregon Projected RPI 27 and would have to pick up several more in conference.

[TBird41]

Dec 12, 2016 17:12:33 GMT -5 blueandgray said:

Finish above .500 in BE play and that will make a significant statement. We win 11 BE games and we should be in...and I am assuming a split with uconn and cuse and winning out our remaining non conference schedule.

19 wins however we get there should do it considering SOS.

I think B&G has it right--18 wins and we're on the bubble, 19 wins gets us in for sure. If we can go 2-1 in non-conference play that means 10-8 and a BET win. KenPom currently has us projected at 15-16 (8-10), so we need to keep improving, but the Big East is definitely strong enough that a winning record and 18/19 wins will have us squarely in the RPI top 50 with enough good wins to get in, and, with Arkansas St. still a top 30 RPI team, the Hoyas could conceivably have a resume without a loss outside the RPI top 100 (assuming they don't lose to DePaul/SJU/UNC Greensboro/UConn).

[drquigley]

Last game of season at home against Nova. Will be YUUUGE!

[Just Cos]

19 wins seems to put us in the 40s for RPI. I think that's enough (assuming no awful losses along the way).

[trillesthoya]

Dec 12, 2016 16:52:56 GMT -5 trillesthoya said:

-Isaac returns to form. We need him if we are going to make any noise this season. He doesn't need to be THE guy, but he needs to be our number three option. If he does get back to where he was end of freshman year/beginning of sophomore year, this is a top three team in the big east. not sure if thats possible at this point though.

lol nvm 

[McBricks]

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if the team made it to the Dance this year. I'm certainly not rooting against them but based on play to date and the announcement of Copeland leaving, it's hard to imagine the team coming together and getting better. However, there is a chance that maybe Copeland was a distraction and this causes them to bond and pull together. That's the fan in me hoping that some goodness can come out of all this. I'm not sure I'd put money on any of this happening, but there's a chance.

[eagle54]

Thinking this team can win OOC outright, sweep the bottom of the BE (of which we are one) and then split with the powers in the conference is a pipe dream. I have us at 17 wins and that's being optimistic. At least better then last year and maybe some NIT games.

[professorhoya]

Dec 12, 2016 19:46:19 GMT -5 McBricks said:

I'd be very pleasantly surprised if the team made it to the Dance this year. I'm certainly not rooting against them but based on play to date and the announcement of Copeland leaving, it's hard to imagine the team coming together and getting better. However, there is a chance that maybe Copeland was a distraction and this causes them to bond and pull together. That's the fan in me hoping that some goodness can come out of all this. I'm not sure I'd put money on any of this happening, but there's a chance.

Copeland's been horrible for the last half of last season and this. And it kind of coincides with the losing streak. So if anything it seems to have improved our chances since everyone felt obligated to start him and play him major minutes when healthy.

[vv83]

I know that people probably don't care about this too much - but the women's team is having a very strong season. 8-2, with the #4 RPI in the country! They have three really good players, and right now are in the "first four out" in ESPN bracketology. Their next game is in McDonough on 12/28 vs. the best BE women's program (DePaul). That game will provide a good sense of their prospects for the rest of the season. The BE is a pretty weak women's conference (compared to our standing as a pretty strong men's conference), so we won't get any RPI help from the conference season. they have to win a whole lot of conference games to make the tournament, but they have a chance. Given how the women's program fell apart after coach Flo left, it is impressive that the current coach has gotten them back up to such a competitive level in just a few seasons.

[blueandgray]

Not sure if anyone saw Seton Hall beat a ranked South Carolina team last night....but they are good!! I'd happily take a split wii Seton hall right now. I'd also take a split with Marquette. Got to win out against Provy, SJ, and DePaul.

[bostonfan]

I think it is a 50/50 chance right now to get into the big dance. They need to win the next two, and then beat UConn later in the year. After that you really just need to end up with a winning record in the conference, however you can do that and win one or two BET games. You won't be a high seed but you should get in.


They are good enough to be considered a dangerous team, simply because of LJ and Pryor. Those two can both go off for really big games and steal a few wins. If I had to bet on it today, I would say they find a way to sneak into the tournament this year.

[ColumbiaHeightsHoya]

500 in big east would do it and that isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter with Ike. Provy, Seton Hall, & Marquette are probably all better then us right now. If we somehow split with these teams and sweep St. J & Depaul, that gets us 7. We would need two W's from Xavier, Nova, Butler & Creighton. Possible yes, likely no. I am shooting low hoping to be surprised.

[practice]

Let's just focus on the Big East tournament ... remove all doubt and qualify automatically!

[GUJook97]

Dec 13, 2016 9:24:43 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

500 in big east would do it and that isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter with Ike. Provy, Seton Hall, & Marquette are probably all better then us right now. If we somehow split with these teams and sweep St. J & Depaul, that gets us 7. We would need two W's from Xavier, Nova, Butler & Creighton. Possible yes, likely no. I am shooting low hoping to be surprised.

Yeah, the good news is that 10-9 in the league would do it. The bad news is that is because there are 5 legitimately good teams ahead of us. If we can go 5-6 against those teams and Syracuse, we'd be in. At least it all there in front of us.

[DFW HOYA]

Dec 13, 2016 9:29:09 GMT -5 practice said:

Let's just focus on the Big East tournament ... remove all doubt and qualify automatically!

Appreciate the optimism, but the sad fact is that Georgetown has done this just once in the last 27 seasons.

[bostonfan]

Dec 13, 2016 9:24:43 GMT -5 ColumbiaHeightsHoya said:

500 in big east would do it and that isn't going to happen. Doesn't matter with Ike. Provy, Seton Hall, & Marquette are probably all better then us right now. If we somehow split with these teams and sweep St. J & Depaul, that gets us 7. We would need two W's from Xavier, Nova, Butler & Creighton. Possible yes, likely no. I am shooting low hoping to be surprised.

Seton Hall does look tough but I think a split with them is realistic. I don't agree that Providence and Marquette are better at this point. The four games against those two teams might be the deciding factor in getting in or the NIT. Win 3 of 4 and your in the Big Dance.

It will be an interesting BE season. The Hoyas should be competitive against every team in the league if they continue with their offensive efficiency and play with the intensity they have for the last few games. Last year they were in most games in the conference and found a way to lose most of them. Hopefully this year they find a way to win a few of the close ones.