blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Dec 28, 2016 0:45:22 GMT -5
I tell myself this.....Without that Maryland experience, I am not sure we close out Oregon or Syracuse the way we did. We've learned from it and hopefully it will serve us well in conference play.
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Post by trillesthoya on Dec 28, 2016 0:49:10 GMT -5
I tell myself this.....Without that Maryland experience, I am not sure we close out Oregon or Syracuse the way we did. We've learned from it and hopefully it will serve us well in conference play. Definitely nowhere near as much urgency if we win against Maryland and Arkansas State. Would you guys trade a Maryland W and Arkansas St. W for losses to Cuse and Oregon? Probably not right? Remember that as Georgetown fans we can never have it both ways.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Dec 28, 2016 0:52:25 GMT -5
I tell myself this.....Without that Maryland experience, I am not sure we close out Oregon or Syracuse the way we did. We've learned from it and hopefully it will serve us well in conference play. Definitely nowhere near as much urgency if we win against Maryland and Arkansas State. Would you guys trade a Maryland W and Arkansas St. W for losses to Cuse and Oregon? Probably not right? Remember that as Georgetown fans we can never have it both ways. I wouldn't trade them just would think a well coached team that is better equipped should win. We can't have it both ways because most accept this program as is.
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Post by HometownHoya on Dec 28, 2016 10:50:53 GMT -5
Definitely nowhere near as much urgency if we win against Maryland and Arkansas State. Would you guys trade a Maryland W and Arkansas St. W for losses to Cuse and Oregon? Probably not right? Remember that as Georgetown fans we can never have it both ways. I wouldn't trade them just would think a well coached team that is better equipped should win. We can't have it both ways because most accept this program as is. It's hard to coach up those high pressure end of game situations. You can run as many scenarios as you want in practice but it will never replicate the real thing. Add in that it was early in the season before roles were well defined so Peak and Pryor weren't dominating the ball and you see the formula that led to those let downs. Could JT3 have called more timeouts? I don't remember how many he had at that point but the refs definitely gave both teams plenty of timeouts. That was a very quick collapse and one that even JT3 and the coaches haven't been a part of very often in their career. I honestly wouldn't trade UMD and Ark St for Cuse and Oregon currently. I'll take wins over our rival and a top 25 team over wins against a semi-rival/sniffing top 25 and mid-major team.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Dec 28, 2016 11:23:40 GMT -5
I keep pointing out that it may be unfair to compare the November and early December team with this group now. Playing 5 games in 8 days against very good teams that early in the season when you are trying to incorporate 3 new starters and a new offense was a recipe for disaster. Since Nov. 27th we've played 5 games. Our improved performance has to reflect more practice time between games. The game tonight will be important because it will show whether that extra time between games will show up against tough BE teams on the road.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 28, 2016 11:35:34 GMT -5
I tell myself this.....Without that Maryland experience, I am not sure we close out Oregon or Syracuse the way we did. We've learned from it and hopefully it will serve us well in conference play. Maybe you're right from an emotional standpoint, but from an execution standpoint I would disagree. We turned the ball over like crazy against pressure in all 3 games. The only difference was Maryland hit all their FTs, whereas Oregon and Cuse didn't. We still have to demonstrate at some point this season that we can hold up against end-of-game pressure without turning the ball over, because we haven't yet. Also, FWIW... RPI Forecast now has it at ~27% chance we'll finish with at least 19 wins (up from 19% right after Cuse). If you think 18 wins (with a predicted RPI now up to 55) is enough, it goes up to ~45%. Tonight is enormous.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Dec 28, 2016 14:58:39 GMT -5
I tell myself this.....Without that Maryland experience, I am not sure we close out Oregon or Syracuse the way we did. We've learned from it and hopefully it will serve us well in conference play. Maybe you're right from an emotional standpoint, but from an execution standpoint I would disagree. We turned the ball over like crazy against pressure in all 3 games. The only difference was Maryland hit all their FTs, whereas Oregon and Cuse didn't. We still have to demonstrate at some point this season that we can hold up against end-of-game pressure without turning the ball over, because we haven't yet. Also, FWIW... RPI Forecast now has it at ~27% chance we'll finish with at least 19 wins (up from 19% right after Cuse). If you think 18 wins (with a predicted RPI now up to 55) is enough, it goes up to ~45%. Tonight is enormous. Sorry Rockaway but tonight is not enormous. Saturday morning is enormous. Losing on the road to anyone in the BE not named St. John's or Depaul is acceptable. Winning at home against everyone in the BE (especially the top 4) is what will mae our season. So a win tonight would be nice but I'd trade it for a win on Saturday anytime.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Dec 28, 2016 15:57:01 GMT -5
Maybe you're right from an emotional standpoint, but from an execution standpoint I would disagree. We turned the ball over like crazy against pressure in all 3 games. The only difference was Maryland hit all their FTs, whereas Oregon and Cuse didn't. We still have to demonstrate at some point this season that we can hold up against end-of-game pressure without turning the ball over, because we haven't yet. Also, FWIW... RPI Forecast now has it at ~27% chance we'll finish with at least 19 wins (up from 19% right after Cuse). If you think 18 wins (with a predicted RPI now up to 55) is enough, it goes up to ~45%. Tonight is enormous. Sorry Rockaway but tonight is not enormous. Saturday morning is enormous. Losing on the road to anyone in the BE not named St. John's or Depaul is acceptable. Winning at home against everyone in the BE (especially the top 4) is what will mae our season. So a win tonight would be nice but I'd trade it for a win on Saturday anytime. Assuming we go 2-6 against the top 4 teams in the conference and sweep Depaul/SJU, if you want to get to 10 BE wins you're still going to have to sweep one of Marquette, SHU or Providence. Despite our struggles in Milwaukee, I still think Marquette would be the easiest of the three to pull off. That requires a win tonight.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Dec 28, 2016 18:00:23 GMT -5
Sorry Rockaway but tonight is not enormous. Saturday morning is enormous. Losing on the road to anyone in the BE not named St. John's or Depaul is acceptable. Winning at home against everyone in the BE (especially the top 4) is what will mae our season. So a win tonight would be nice but I'd trade it for a win on Saturday anytime. Assuming we go 2-6 against the top 4 teams in the conference and sweep Depaul/SJU, if you want to get to 10 BE wins you're still going to have to sweep one of Marquette, SHU or Providence. Despite our struggles in Milwaukee, I still think Marquette would be the easiest of the three to pull off. That requires a win tonight. If we go 2-6 against top 4 teams we are dead. Kiss NCAA goodbye. Gotta win at least 3 at home and hope for the huge win against Nova at home on last game of the season. Obviously a road win against these 4 would be great (and hey we beat Xavier on the road last year with a truly mediocre team).
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Dec 29, 2016 10:39:05 GMT -5
Rpi is up to 61. Oregon beating UCLA was apparently more important than our loss to Marquette.
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Post by HometownHoya on Dec 29, 2016 10:45:56 GMT -5
Tough game against a team we may end up fighting for a bubble spot. That said, winning on the road is always difficult and no one was predicting an undefeated run through BE play, a loss to a team like Marquette was expected this season, we had all just hoped it wouldn't be the first game of tournament play.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Dec 29, 2016 11:18:30 GMT -5
Tough game against a team we may end up fighting for a bubble spot. That said, winning on the road is always difficult and no one was predicting an undefeated run through BE play, a loss to a team like Marquette was expected this season, we had all just hoped it wouldn't be the first game of tournament play. It's another loss for a JT3-coached team at Bradley Center. It's is surprising that we didn't lose by more than 10 pts when we now know LJ wasn't 100%.
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Highsmith
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Post by Highsmith on Dec 29, 2016 12:20:15 GMT -5
This game(Marquette) in and of itself didn't do much to hurt our chances......the way we played doesn't inspire much confidence though. It seemed like we were on a slow upward track leading up this one and we just slid back down. If Peak is lost for any significant time, that makes things really tough. Maybe the best thing to come out of this will be that quote by Johnson on Marquette. If played right, that could/should inspire the players to kick it in gear. We'll see......Xavier will be bringing it for 40 minutes. If we can do the same, win or lose, I will feel better about our chances.....although a win would really help!!
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hoyajinx
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Post by hoyajinx on Dec 29, 2016 13:09:52 GMT -5
I can't see this as anything other than a team that is considerably more likely to lose games it should win rather than win games it should lose. There is no way we split against the teams not named Villanova. We are going to drop some home games against average teams in conference. We are just way too inconsistent and, unfortunately, even the best of our play so far hasn't been all that impressive.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Jan 10, 2017 11:04:23 GMT -5
Before I say anything else, let me preface this by saying that at 1-4, our tournament chances at the moment aren't that good. We don't have a ton of room for error. That said, if we can put together a small winning streak, we will be closer than it might seem.
Previously, I stated my opinion that: (1) We needed to go 4-0 against St. John's and DePaul (still very doable), (2) 4-2 against Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette (which means we'd have to go 4-0 in the remaining games), (3) and 2-6 against Butler, Creighton, Villanova, and Xavier.
Really, the biggest hole we dug ourselves was losing to both Marquette and Providence, though both were away games. Let's look at it by category:
St. Johns/DePaul: We are 1-0, with three games remaining. Playing St. John's at MSG will be tougher than last night, but the St. John's team we beat last night was horrible. We should win that (KenPom only puts us at 55%, though). Against DePaul, we are 73% to win away, and 90% to win at home. There are no guarantees we will win all three remaining games, but if this team has any chance at the tournament, it will need them. And, after last night, I think 4-0 is feasible.
That'd put us at 4-4 in the Big East.
Marquette/Seton Hall/Providence: We are 0-2, with games at home remaining against all three, and an away game at Seton Hall. These are tough games because these teams are similar quality. Right now, can we go 4-0 against the remaining set? I think that's highly unlikely. But, I think if we continue to get improved guard play, Derrickson continues to play well, and we get the normal contributions from others, 3-1 is feasible, especially since it really just requires us to win at home.
3-1 against these teams would put us at 7-5.
Villanova/Xavier/Creighton/Butler: We are 0-2 against them so far. This is really going to be crucial. Originally, I said 2-6 would be enough to get us to the tournament, but that was assuming 4-2 against the group above. At 9-9, I don't think that gets us there without two BET wins. But, let's say we improved and went 3-3 against this group. That'd put us at 10-8, and we'd easily be in the tournament. Keep in mind, these three wins would likely be top 25 wins, and great for our RPI. Again, very, very, tough. But not impossible.
I am not trying to project an overly optimistic viewpoint. The odds are heavily stacked against us in making the tournament. KenPom still projects us as 7-11 in conference. I am just putting forth the scenario above to show that while we would need to show a lot of improvement, it's still possible to make the tournament without crafting ridiculous scenarios (like going 4-0 against Villanova and Creighton).
NOTE: Updated around 1:30 pm to correct my typo on us not having lost to both Butler and Xavier already.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Jan 10, 2017 11:11:39 GMT -5
Before I say anything else, let me preface this by saying that at 1-4, our tournament chances at the moment aren't that good. We don't have a ton of room for error. That said, if we can put together a small winning streak, we will be closer than it might seem. Previously, I stated my opinion that: (1) We needed to go 4-0 against St. John's and DePaul (still very doable), (2) 4-2 against Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette (which means we'd have to go 4-0 in the remaining games), (3) and 2-6 against Butler, Creighton, Villanova, and Xavier. Really, the biggest hole we dug ourselves was losing to both Marquette and Providence, though both were away games. Let's look at it by category: St. Johns/DePaul: We are 1-0, with three games remaining. Playing St. John's at MSG will be tougher than last night, but the St. John's team we beat last night was horrible. We should win that (KenPom only puts us at 55%, though). Against DePaul, we are 73% to win away, and 90% to win at home. There are no guarantees we will win all three remaining games, but if this team has any chance at the tournament, it will need them. And, after last night, I think 4-0 is feasible. That'd put us at 4-4 in the Big East. Marquette/Seton Hall/Providence: We are 0-2, with games at home remaining against all three, and an away game at Seton Hall. These are tough games because these teams are similar quality. Right now, can we go 4-0 against the remaining set? I think that's highly unlikely. But, I think if we continue to get improved guard play, Derrickson continues to play well, and we get the normal contributions from others, 3-1 is feasible, especially since it really just requires us to win at home. 3-1 against these teams would put us at 7-5. Villanova/Xavier/Creighton/Butler: We are 0-1 against them so far. This is really going to be crucial. Originally, I said 2-6 would be enough to get us to the tournament, but that was assuming 4-2 against the group above. At 9-9, I don't think that gets us there without two BET wins. But, let's say we improved and went 3-3 against this group. That'd put us at 10-8, and we'd easily be in the tournament. Keep in mind, these three wins would likely be top 25 wins, and great for our RPI. I am not trying to project an overly optimistic viewpoint. The odds are heavily stacked against us in making the tournament. KenPom still projects us as 7-11 in conference. I am just putting forth the scenario above to show that while we would need to show a lot of improvement, it's still possible to make the tournament without crafting ridiculous scenarios (like going 4-0 against Villanova and Creighton). The highlighted quotes are understatements! Seriously, though, the most we can hope for at present is to beat UConn and Provy (both at home), which will then set us up to at least make the next three (@xavier, Creighton, butler) interesting and meaningful. Baby steps.
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Jan 10, 2017 11:40:26 GMT -5
I am sure we will make the Big East Tournament
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Jan 10, 2017 11:48:56 GMT -5
I am sure we will make the Big East Tournament Now you have jinxed us.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Jan 10, 2017 11:51:11 GMT -5
Before I say anything else, let me preface this by saying that at 1-4, our tournament chances at the moment aren't that good. We don't have a ton of room for error. That said, if we can put together a small winning streak, we will be closer than it might seem. Previously, I stated my opinion that: (1) We needed to go 4-0 against St. John's and DePaul (still very doable), (2) 4-2 against Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette (which means we'd have to go 4-0 in the remaining games), (3) and 2-6 against Butler, Creighton, Villanova, and Xavier. Really, the biggest hole we dug ourselves was losing to both Marquette and Providence, though both were away games. Let's look at it by category: St. Johns/DePaul: We are 1-0, with three games remaining. Playing St. John's at MSG will be tougher than last night, but the St. John's team we beat last night was horrible. We should win that (KenPom only puts us at 55%, though). Against DePaul, we are 73% to win away, and 90% to win at home. There are no guarantees we will win all three remaining games, but if this team has any chance at the tournament, it will need them. And, after last night, I think 4-0 is feasible. That'd put us at 4-4 in the Big East. Marquette/Seton Hall/Providence: We are 0-2, with games at home remaining against all three, and an away game at Seton Hall. These are tough games because these teams are similar quality. Right now, can we go 4-0 against the remaining set? I think that's highly unlikely. But, I think if we continue to get improved guard play, Derrickson continues to play well, and we get the normal contributions from others, 3-1 is feasible, especially since it really just requires us to win at home. 3-1 against these teams would put us at 7-5. Villanova/Xavier/Creighton/Butler: We are 0-1 against them so far. This is really going to be crucial. Originally, I said 2-6 would be enough to get us to the tournament, but that was assuming 4-2 against the group above. At 9-9, I don't think that gets us there without two BET wins. But, let's say we improved and went 3-3 against this group. That'd put us at 10-8, and we'd easily be in the tournament. Keep in mind, these three wins would likely be top 25 wins, and great for our RPI. I am not trying to project an overly optimistic viewpoint. The odds are heavily stacked against us in making the tournament. KenPom still projects us as 7-11 in conference. I am just putting forth the scenario above to show that while we would need to show a lot of improvement, it's still possible to make the tournament without crafting ridiculous scenarios (like going 4-0 against Villanova and Creighton). I wish we were 0-1 against Nova/Creighton/Xavier/Butler so far!
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Jan 10, 2017 13:00:16 GMT -5
At this point, I think it's more realistic that we get hot and win the BET than get to 10-8 in conference.
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