Highsmith
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Post by Highsmith on Dec 13, 2016 10:37:41 GMT -5
I think it is still pretty up in the air. If you had asked me right after Maui, I would have said never. I've seen a little bit of a spark recently though....especially the LaSalle game. However, I am far from ready to say it is an upward trend. I think we will have a pretty good idea of what this team's chances to dance are by the new calendar year. We have Syracuse, UNC-Greensboro, Marquette and Xavier.....two road games and two home games. If we are 3-1 (not even going to suggest 4-0) over those games, I think we have a great shot. If we are 2-2, it will be tough. If we are 1-3 or worse.....forget about it. Obviously lots can happen over a season, but these games do a pretty good job of simulating the rest of what we have coming up.....a tough rivalry game on the road, a "should-win" at home, a tough league road game and a home game against one of the better teams in the league/country. We'll see what happens!
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Nevada Hoya
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Dec 13, 2016 14:02:02 GMT -5
Let's just focus on the Big East tournament ... remove all doubt and qualify automatically! Appreciate the optimism, but the sad fact is that Georgetown has done this just once in the last 27 seasons. Oh my! I would not have thought this was the case.
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 13, 2016 14:30:34 GMT -5
I'd put the current chances of making the NCAA Tournament at about 33%. The Arkansas State home loss was crushing - Arkansas State is currently KenPom #160 (Elon is KenPom #161). We have very little margin for error. Here are the paths as I see it:
- Win 3 remaining OOC games (at Syracuse, UNC Greensboro, UCONN), go 9-9 in the Big East and win at least one BET game. That would put us at 19-14 with at least a couple wins over top 50 opponents (Oregon and at Syracuse). Might be sweating on Selection Sunday, but the strength of the Big East probably gets us in. Would help if at least 1-2 of the Big East wins comes from Nova, Creighton, Butler, or Xavier). Also, can't lose to DePaul or St. John's in this scenario, as that would be another sub-top 100 loss. - Win 2 of 3 remaining OOC games (with the loss being to Syracuse), go at least 10-8 in the Big East (with at least 2 of the wins vs. Nova, Creighton, Butler, and Xavier) and win at least one BET game. No losses to DePaul or St. John's. Gets us to same overall record as above, possibly better if more than one BET win. - Win 1 of 3 remaining OOC games (with the losses being to Syracuse and UCONN, with the hope that UCONN plays much better/wins the AAC), go at least 11-7 in the Big East (with at least 3 of the wins vs. Nova, Creighton, Butler, and Xavier) and win at least one BET game.
If we only win the remaining games in which we should be favored (vs. UNC Greensboro, vs. St. John's, vs. UCONN, vs. Providence, at DePaul, vs. Seton Hall, vs. Marquette, vs. DePaul, and at St. John's), we'll have 15-16 going into the Big East Tournament. So, not only do we need to win the games in which we'll be favored, we need to pick off 3-4 winnable games in which we likely won't be favored. That will probably need to come from at Syracuse, at Providence, at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs. Butler, vs. Xavier - this assumes 0-4 vs. Villanova and Creighton.
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Post by practice on Dec 13, 2016 17:30:45 GMT -5
Ok ... perhaps we should not solely focus on winning the BE tournament (really it's been 27 years?!?!). However, projecting this team out past Saturday seems absurd to me. If they can repeat the performance against LaSalle, we'll likely improve to 7-4. One game at a time, onward and upward. This team is hopefully continuing to evolve and grow. The more success it finds, the better it gets.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 13, 2016 17:54:02 GMT -5
I'd put the current chances of making the NCAA Tournament at about 33%. The Arkansas State home loss was crushing - Arkansas State is currently KenPom #160 (Elon is KenPom #161). We have very little margin for error. Here are the paths as I see it: - Win 3 remaining OOC games (at Syracuse, UNC Greensboro, UCONN), go 9-9 in the Big East and win at least one BET game. That would put us at 19-14 with at least a couple wins over top 50 opponents (Oregon and at Syracuse). Might be sweating on Selection Sunday, but the strength of the Big East probably gets us in. Would help if at least 1-2 of the Big East wins comes from Nova, Creighton, Butler, or Xavier). Also, can't lose to DePaul or St. John's in this scenario, as that would be another sub-top 100 loss. - Win 2 of 3 remaining OOC games (with the loss being to Syracuse), go at least 10-8 in the Big East (with at least 2 of the wins vs. Nova, Creighton, Butler, and Xavier) and win at least one BET game. No losses to DePaul or St. John's. Gets us to same overall record as above, possibly better if more than one BET win. - Win 1 of 3 remaining OOC games (with the losses being to Syracuse and UCONN, with the hope that UCONN plays much better/wins the AAC), go at least 11-7 in the Big East (with at least 3 of the wins vs. Nova, Creighton, Butler, and Xavier) and win at least one BET game. If we only win the remaining games in which we should be favored (vs. UNC Greensboro, vs. St. John's, vs. UCONN, vs. Providence, at DePaul, vs. Seton Hall, vs. Marquette, vs. DePaul, and at St. John's), we'll have 15-16 going into the Big East Tournament. So, not only do we need to win the games in which we'll be favored, we need to pick off 3-4 winnable games in which we likely won't be favored. That will probably need to come from at Syracuse, at Providence, at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs. Butler, vs. Xavier - this assumes 0-4 vs. Villanova and Creighton. Arkansas St may be Kenpom 160 but their RPI is 26th. They're projected to end up with an RPI of 75. It won't look like a bad loss on paper.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Dec 13, 2016 18:05:27 GMT -5
I think it's pretty simple. If the Hoyas learn how to rebound by New Year's, they dance.
We're the second-tallest team in the Big East and dead last amongst all major conference teams in defensive rebounding. Its embarrassing and completely coachable. If JTIII fixes just that, the Hoyas can win games in conference and make the tourney.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Dec 14, 2016 16:13:29 GMT -5
The thing is you don't have to be that big to be a good rebounder. Otto always seemed to be in the right spot for a rebound. Freeman also was known to crash the boards. And DSR was a real pest under the boards. You can't watch replays of our games without noticing how Hayes has a terrible habit of watching the ball rather than putting a body on a guy first.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Dec 15, 2016 8:32:53 GMT -5
Appreciate the optimism, but the sad fact is that Georgetown has done this just once in the last 27 seasons. Oh my! I would not have thought this was the case. I'm just glad the Hoyas won a title it's hard to do. Yes, we are long over due though.
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Post by glidehoyas (Inactive) on Dec 15, 2016 8:37:05 GMT -5
The thing is you don't have to be that big to be a good rebounder. Otto always seemed to be in the right spot for a rebound. Freeman also was known to crash the boards. And DSR was a real pest under the boards. You can'ts watch replays of our games without noticing how Hayes has a terrible habit of watching the ball rather than putting a body on a guy first. Otto is a natural at grabbing rebounds and playing tough around the basket. His length bother's opponents. His ability to swing up and from the right and left sides of the ball for steal.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Dec 15, 2016 11:23:27 GMT -5
Ok ... perhaps we should not solely focus on winning the BE tournament (really it's been 27 years?!?!). However, projecting this team out past Saturday seems absurd to me. If they can repeat the performance against LaSalle, we'll likely improve to 7-4. One game at a time, onward and upward. This team is hopefully continuing to evolve and grow. The more success it finds, the better it gets. It's been 10 years. We won the BET in 2007. Hibbert emphatically ended Aaron Gray's Big East career. It was glorious.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Dec 15, 2016 11:55:53 GMT -5
Appreciate the optimism, but the sad fact is that Georgetown has done this just once in the last 27 seasons. Oh my! I would not have thought this was the case. To be fair, prior to last year, Seton Hall hadn't won a BET since 1993, prior to 2015 Nova had only won one BET (in 1995) and prior to 2014 Providence had only won one BET (in 1994). So our 10 year drought isn't anywhere near as long as the 20+ year droughts that have been snapped in the past three years.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Dec 17, 2016 23:52:33 GMT -5
I'm gaining hope on our chances as this is the longest streak of wins I can remember and against some quality albeit not great opponents. However, it's the not great opponents that we tend to struggle with so good to see us win the ones we should. However, today was huge as we were underdogs on the road in a hostile environment and that was big. I'm excited to watch games for the first time in a while. Last year and the start of this year it was feeling more like a chore than something I enjoyed.
I think the loss of Ike won't hurt this team a bit as he was a huge liability and there seemed to be some pressure to play him due to his recruiting hype. I give coach credit for sitting him down and then letting him go.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Dec 18, 2016 0:42:21 GMT -5
Our RPI went from 97 to 65 so we certainly got a nice boost there. Have to keep chipping away at that number.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Dec 18, 2016 0:51:45 GMT -5
Our RPI went from 97 to 65 so we certainly got a nice boost there. Have to keep chipping away at that number. I like that but what about KenPom?
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Dec 18, 2016 7:49:27 GMT -5
Our RPI went from 97 to 65 so we certainly got a nice boost there. Have to keep chipping away at that number. I like that but what about KenPom? 54
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Post by aleutianhoya on Dec 18, 2016 8:40:45 GMT -5
It's really too early to make any predictions with any confidence because our out of conference opponents' ratings will be so variable still. Who knows how low or high Ark. St. will be? Will that be merely a bad loss or will it be horrific? Impossible to know until they play their conference games. Same with the Oregon win. Or the Cuse win for that matter. Cuse ends up 15-16 things look different than if they are 18-13 or 20-11.
That said, at this stage if you plug 18 wins for us into an RPI predictor, we would be in the 50s, so that probably wouldn't do it. 19 probably would. 20 is a sure bet.
But again, it's really hard to know. My gut tells me that if we beat UConn and UNC-G, a winning BE record would be enough.
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TrueHoyaBlue
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Dec 18, 2016 8:47:14 GMT -5
Currently, 7 of our 9 Big East opponents are in the top 50 in KenPom.
I feel pretty comfortable that if we can win 19, we'll have enough quality wins to squeeze into the tourney. Not that I would want to stop there.
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Post by FrostbackHoya on Dec 18, 2016 8:48:18 GMT -5
I like that but what about KenPom? 54 I hear there's a website you can go check.
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Post by bicentennial on Dec 18, 2016 9:12:26 GMT -5
Yeah, you put in a search for kenpom 2016 and I bet you even Bing takes you there!
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Dec 18, 2016 10:45:21 GMT -5
One interesting thing is we match up pretty well with our BE opponents. Only Xavier(46) and Seton Hall(48) are top 50 in offensive rebounding. Only Providence (36) and Butler(33rd) are top 50 in forcing turnovers, Only Seton Hall(47) and DePaul (32) are in the top 50 at drawing fouls.
So not a lot of teams are set up to expose us. And it's not like teams are floating in the 51-100 range either(there are a few in there for forcing turnovers Xavier and creighton are in the 80s) for offensive rebounding most of the teams in the league are in the 200s in that stat.
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