Hoyas - Elon 12/4/16 Discussion

[DanMcQ]

Let's see what almost a week of practice will bring.

[njhoya78]

Practice? We're talking about practice?

[eastcoastteddy58]

Dec 1, 2016 13:17:36 GMT -5 njhoya78 said:

Practice? We're talking about practice?

We damn sure need it!

[drquigley]

Anyone looking seriously at Elon? 6-1 averaging 86 points per game. 50% from the field. Beaten some tough mid majors. Big. Folks, this game smells like trouble.

[tashoya]

Dec 1, 2016 23:16:35 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Anyone looking seriously at Elon? 6-1 averaging 86 points per game. 50% from the field. Beaten some tough mid majors. Big. Folks, this game smells like trouble.

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Dec 1, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5 tashoya said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:16:35 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Anyone looking seriously at Elon? 6-1 averaging 86 points per game. 50% from the field. Beaten some tough mid majors. Big. Folks, this game smells like trouble.

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

On twos, Elon is shooting 59.7%, good enough for 5th in the nation. We are 197/351 at defending twos. That alone gives me a lot of concern about this game. Our defense needs to show up or we will lose. They aren't a great three point shooting team, but not awful either. And they stink at free throws.

On the bright side, their defense isn't great. They don't force many turnovers (291/351), which is good. They also don't block many shots.

They're 6-1, but one win is against a non-Division I team. The other wins are against teams ranked: 184, 250, 231, 159, 233, and 254. So we will be their first high-major test (they also play Duke later on). So they have a good record and they have some strong attributes, but they're largely untested against better competition.

I am nervous about this one.

[Lethal_Interjection]

I wouldn't be shocked if someone from Elon have a career game against GU.

[GIGAFAN99]

These next two games are a perfect barometer for where our defense is right now. On talent, we win easily. On execution, we shall see.

[TBird41]

Dec 2, 2016 6:34:29 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

These next two games are a perfect barometer for where our defense is right now. On talent, we win easily. On execution, we shall see.

Agreed. December was the point when the season was lost last year (with the 7 game losing streak at the end making sure the season was really lost). I think UNC Greensboro is scarier than Elon because unlike Elon, UNC Greensboro's strengths (offensive rebounding, creating turnovers) matches up with our weaknesses.


2017 KenPom Rank:

Elon--129
LaSalle--107
UNC Greensboro--156

2016 KenPom Rank:

Monmouth--95
UNC Asheville--131


The good news is that Elon isn't well positioned to exploit our weaknesses (excluding guard penetration, because, like all teams we face, they have guards on their roster). Elon is not a good rebounding team (they're around 210 in off. & def. rebounding percentage) and they are the worst offensive rebounding team the Hoyas have faced that isn't Coppin State. The Hoyas need to dominate the glass on both ends.

Elon's about average at protecting the ball, so it won't be easy for the Hoyas to create turnovers, but they should be able to get some, and Elon's defense is really bad (210th in defensive efficiency), so if they can create points off of turnovers, the Hoyas should be able to score enough in the half court to win.

[glidehoyas (Inactive)]

Dec 2, 2016 1:34:47 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5 tashoya said:

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

On twos, Elon is shooting 59.7%, good enough for 5th in the nation. We are 197/351 at defending twos. That alone gives me a lot of concern about this game. Our defense needs to show up or we will lose. They aren't a great three point shooting team, but not awful either. And they stink at free throws.

On the bright side, their defense isn't great. They don't force many turnovers (291/351), which is good. They also don't block many shots.

They're 6-1, but one win is against a non-Division I team. The other wins are against teams ranked: 184, 250, 231, 159, 233, and 254. So we will be their first high-major test (they also play Duke later on). So they have a good record and they have some strong attributes, but they're largely untested against better competition.

I am nervous about this one.

I think the Hoyas press could shut this down to be honest with you, but yeah, we shall see.

[hoyarooter]

Dec 2, 2016 1:34:47 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5 tashoya said:

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

On twos, Elon is shooting 59.7%, good enough for 5th in the nation. We are 197/351 at defending twos. That alone gives me a lot of concern about this game. Our defense needs to show up or we will lose. They aren't a great three point shooting team, but not awful either. And they stink at free throws.

On the bright side, their defense isn't great. They don't force many turnovers (291/351), which is good. They also don't block many shots.

They're 6-1, but one win is against a non-Division I team. The other wins are against teams ranked: 184, 250, 231, 159, 233, and 254. So we will be their first high-major test (they also play Duke later on). So they have a good record and they have some strong attributes, but they're largely untested against better competition.

I am nervous about this one.

Are we "better competition"?

[bamahoya11]

Dec 1, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5 tashoya said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:16:35 GMT -5 drquigley said:

Anyone looking seriously at Elon? 6-1 averaging 86 points per game. 50% from the field. Beaten some tough mid majors. Big. Folks, this game smells like trouble.

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

Agreed. Elon seems to be a very talented team. I glanced at their stats Wednesday after our game and they have five players averaging in double figures and another two averaging around eight points per game. It's not just that they can score, it's that they seem to have a really balanced team with a lot of really reliable options. We don't right now, with only Pryor and LJ averaging in double figures.

Elon also seems to rebound pretty well. They average, as I recall, about 39 a game, roughly 7 more per game than we have. Looking over their roster, they do have some size with a couple players in the 6-10, 6-11 range. They don't have any particularly significant wins but do have, as I recall, a win against USF. It's not much, but it does show they can beat teams from a bigger league.

This game should be a good test to see if we are learning and growing. These guys will do some of the same things that Arkansas St and Oklahoma St tried to do to us. They won't come in intimidated, and they'll expect to have a chance to win. We can win this game, even by a large margin. But it'll take a 40-minute effort to do so.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Dec 2, 2016 19:38:25 GMT -5 hoyarooter said:

Dec 2, 2016 1:34:47 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

On twos, Elon is shooting 59.7%, good enough for 5th in the nation. We are 197/351 at defending twos. That alone gives me a lot of concern about this game. Our defense needs to show up or we will lose. They aren't a great three point shooting team, but not awful either. And they stink at free throws.

On the bright side, their defense isn't great. They don't force many turnovers (291/351), which is good. They also don't block many shots.

They're 6-1, but one win is against a non-Division I team. The other wins are against teams ranked: 184, 250, 231, 159, 233, and 254. So we will be their first high-major test (they also play Duke later on). So they have a good record and they have some strong attributes, but they're largely untested against better competition.

I am nervous about this one.

Are we "better competition"?

Are we better than teams in the 184-254 range (out of 351 teams)? Yes. That doesn't mean we are going to win the game, but we are most certainly better competition that the other teams they've played.

[TBird41]

Dec 2, 2016 19:39:13 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:42:15 GMT -5 tashoya said:

Agree. And not in the "we've looked bad and can't take anyone lightly" sense.

Elon also seems to rebound pretty well. They average, as I recall, about 39 a game, roughly 7 more per game than we have. Looking over their roster, they do have some size with a couple players in the 6-10, 6-11 range. They don't have any particularly significant wins but do have, as I recall, a win against USF. It's not much, but it does show they can beat teams from a bigger league.

Total rebounds isn't a particularly good way to measure how good a team is at rebounding, because it's dependant on the total number of missed shots and tempo.

Rebounding percentage is a better stat, because it tells you how many of the available rebounds a team got. For example, Georgetown got 24 defensive rebounds against UMCP and 26 against Oregon, but did a better job against UMCP, because they got 72% of the possible defensive rebounds against UMCP and only 62% against Oregon.

Elon's ranked 215th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, so they have not been a good rebounding team this year--they're actually the worst in both categories of our opponents so far, other than coppin State.

I got these stats from KenPom, but you have to pay (it's only $20) to see team stats on KenPom's site. They're free on sports-reference.com though.

[hoyapac]

Looking like 8.5 point favorites

[FrostbackHoya]

I'd love to see 20+ points in transition. It would make me feel like we can win some games this year even if the D never really finds itself.

[lichoya68]

MUST WIN NO GIMMES this will be closer than people thinks STOP EDDY yup defend and hustle for forty minutes or more PRYOR LJ AND AKOY meanary way up KEEP ROLLING MUST WIN MUST WIN did you hear that MUST WIN> goh oyas

[DanMcQ]

[wnyhoya]

[Nevada Hoya]

Good to hear Ike is ready to play. Hope it is not too premature.