GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 17, 2014 9:46:53 GMT -5
Doesn't Cosmo really have a point? "If I'm a professor..." you know this isn't actually a class right? He's just using an analogy to convey how most casual fans view the season.
The other part of this, and I think why the overachiever/underachiever argument is so divisive with JTIII is because he's the best scheduler in college basketball. Why does that matter? Well the last 6 years the average season is 22-11, 10-8 in conference and a sixth place finish. The end results were 4 first week NCAA exits and two NITs. That all looks pretty consistent for a good, solid coach. It's not setting the world on fire but it's a good resume.
But sweet mercy three of those teams were top three seeds. A team that finished 8th and couldn't get out of bed to even challenge Notre Dame at home got a #3 handle. For some that seed makes the season "more successful" and others the disappointment is more pronounced for the flameouts. But really last year was the only flameout of a team that back to front achieved at a high level all season.
Generally it's good because I don't think any coach is better at giving his team a chance to make the tournament than JTIII. But I think with the exception of last year, I'm not sure how much a reflection of our team's true tournament chances their seeding has been. Again, good skill to have. I like mid conference season tilts at the oh-so-neutral arena where we play our conference tournament as much as the next guy. It's smart.
But getting that seed isn't success. That seed is a tool to make a run in the tournament and without that, it's just a nice scheduling job metric. If you finish 8th, lose 11 games and bow out to Ohio, that's your season. That three seed isn't an achievement and no fan is going to give more weight to that than won-loss record, conference finish, and national tournament finish.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 19:36:19 GMT -5
Disagree (and laugh at the silly out-of-place Roy comment). Greg and Josh were on the roster at the beginning of the season and scheduled to play MSU, just as the two MSU players. Whether Greg was overrated or not who knows, but he would have been a better option at the 3 or 4 than what we had this year. With Josh and Greg on the floor, it would have created more space for Starks, DSR and what we know now was an improved Jabril post-injury, and we would have been better defensively. First of all, the Roy comment was meant to be out of place to underline the ridiculous of including Whittington and Josh. The point is those guys never had a chance of playing in that game -- whereas Payne and Dawson did -- so you might as well include anyone else that had no chance. Throw in Patrick Ewing. Whittington was never going to play as his injury was over the summer and we all knew he'd be out. Smith was no guarantee either and only by way of the NCAA was his inclusion on the roster assured. In either case it was clear neither would be playing well before the MSU game. Payne and Dawson were playing 2 games before our game and returned to their lineups two games after. The point is that there roster, as constructed when the season began, as maintained throughout the majority of the season and as is heading into the NCAA is their team. People can whine and complain about Whittington being gone but the writing was on the wall since last summer -- if not much much earlier quite frankly. And if you want to throw all that out the window and live in the fantasy world where Josh and Greg play for us, I still think we lose big time to a full-strength MSU. People on this board were arguing that we were worse with Josh Smith IN the lineup so I find it hard to figure out how he helps us defend Payne's athleticism and 3 point shooting. If you watched them against Michigan today it really shouldn't be a controversial point. Tyler Adams. You forgot Tyler Adams
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 17:55:57 GMT -5
Nope 2/3 of the first and second all conference teams are on this list. There's always exceptions but would you rather look for diamonds in the rough or diamonds in diamond piles? Your call. I'll take the top 5 RSCI recruits in the Big East next year and you take any 5 unranked recruits of your choosing. Do as much research as you want. Best aggregate career stats win a beer at MSG. I'm intrigued by this issue/claim of HS ratings. I've always suspected that after the top 30 it was pot luck. Perhaps I'm mistaken though. Certainly a beer would warrant further analysis. Beer always sweetens the deal. Here's another one. Josh is our only top 30 guy next year. So let's say both of the below teams get Josh. Team Top is DSR, Ike, Paul White, and LJ. Team Next is Reggie, Hop, Domingo, and Jabril. Pick your team. These things aren't perfect but they're not random either. This is a consensus, remember not just one service. Even though all the players above are ranked between 37 and 125, it's still pretty clear even sight unseen for our incoming class, which team most of us would pick.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 16:35:44 GMT -5
Doesn't this really point out how bad the recruit rankings are? McDermott, Cotton, Gardner, Edwin, Wragge, and other notables were not legit prospects according to them. Maybe run and dunk AAU tournaments are not the most predictive tools. Nope 2/3 of the first and second all conference teams are on this list. There's always exceptions but would you rather look for diamonds in the rough or diamonds in diamond piles? Your call. I'll take the top 5 RSCI recruits in the Big East next year and you take any 5 unranked recruits of your choosing. Do as much research as you want. Best aggregate career stats win a beer at MSG.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 16:11:13 GMT -5
I have to say, it is pretty remarkable that the Hoyas had 6103 of 6250 minutes (98%) played by RSCI ranked recruits in a league where only 4 other teams could even field 5 ranked players.
Draw whatever conclusions you want, but it's tough for the Hoyas to cry "talent deficit" to the rest of the league. You can try of course, but I'm betting opposing fans might roll their eyes.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 15:59:30 GMT -5
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 15:43:17 GMT -5
Fyi SF, basketball reference has all these now. Does it? That's cool -- where is it? I can't seem to find it. Is under "awards and honors" all the way at the bottom in High School Honors. I just stumbled upon it looking at recruiting info.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2014 15:25:11 GMT -5
Fyi SF, basketball reference has all these now.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 15, 2014 11:50:07 GMT -5
Change urgency to focus and I think you got it.
You never get the feeling these guys were "razor sharp" from tip save Senior Day. It's not laziness, apathy, or smugness. They're just in and out of the level of attention to detail needed to play at the highest level. Something like Hop just turning the ball over pounding it at the top of the offense or Nate just throwing it directly to Depaul. That's not talent or effort. It's just a mental lapse and these guys had a bunch of them.
Why they're not firing on all cylinders who knows? But they definitely weren't.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2014 16:43:19 GMT -5
Our most common lineup half the year was effectively 4 forwards in size with Whit and Otto-Lubick-Hop post-Greg. This year we have no lineup that has the forwards much less four. DSR and Trawick played more minutes than Hopkins and almost as many as Lubick. Our offensive lineup to close out games in the conference season was Starks-DSR-Trawick-Otto and whichever of Lubick, Hopkins, or Moses was having the better day or matchup. The minutes in the blowout home win vs. Syracuse were Starks 40, Porter 39, DSR 34, Trawick 33, Lubick 20, Hopkins 20, Ayegba 13, Bowen 1, so mostly a 3-guard lineup. Check the lineup stats on hoya prospectus.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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NIT bound
Mar 14, 2014 16:25:50 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2014 16:25:50 GMT -5
And actually 1999 is the Esherick loss as interim so that one is double counted. We beat UVA the next year.
So great history lesson. JTIII has as many first round losses in six years as the previous 26 years ('86, '97 -'99). Is that factually correct?
Also you can check if he has a reputation for this by asking any casual non-Hoya fan friend of yours. It avoids math and looking at hoya history project, as great a site as it is.
Win the NIT.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2014 9:31:37 GMT -5
Win it. This is especially true given JTIII's long history of losing more first round postseason games in 6 years than I believe we did between 1972 and 2004 total.
Prove you can win in a knockout tournament nationally. Let the talking heads snicker that it's "only" the NIT. It's important to win and get that mindset of survive and advance.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2014 20:59:23 GMT -5
Are you really stunned? We don't get the correlation between size and the effectiveness of our offense or defense. What's more bizarre is we have evidence during JTIII's tenure that our style predicated on winning in the half court is at its worst when we trot out three guards and two forwards. Totally lost on the staff it seems. We just throw out who we think are the "five best players" like it doesn't matter. The team did pretty well last year playing 3 guards and 2 forwards most of the time. The difference is you can't play with 3 guards and 2 forwards if only 2 of the 5 can shoot and none are plus rebounders. Our most common lineup half the year was effectively 4 forwards in size with Whit and Otto-Lubick-Hop post-Greg. This year we have no lineup that has the forwards much less four.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2014 17:48:14 GMT -5
No shock that SF was right. If Hopkins gets major minutes next year when we are into the BE season, we are in serious trouble. Either the frosh aren't as advertised or JTIII is way too stubborn. hm The problem is that none of them are centers. If Smith doesn't come through, or Hayes doesn't have some ridiculous breakthrough, we're looking at a lot of Hopkins next year. I'm frankly stunned that we didn't seem to strongly pursue a player like Delarosa. Are you really stunned? We don't get the correlation between size and the effectiveness of our offense or defense. What's more bizarre is we have evidence during JTIII's tenure that our style predicated on winning in the half court is at its worst when we trot out three guards and two forwards. Totally lost on the staff it seems. We just throw out who we think are the "five best players" like it doesn't matter.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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B. Hayes
Mar 13, 2014 10:48:59 GMT -5
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2014 10:48:59 GMT -5
Agreed. Hayes is disruptive because of his size. Our bigs foul almost 20 times per 40 minutes (which they actually can't do by the rules of the game). Any "We can't play Hayes, he'd foul too much" argument is a non-starter. Foul more than what? All our bigs foul out if given enough time.
Also here's a thought. How about letting him just protect the paint in a zone? Our zone sinks because we have too much empty space and we don't communicate. At least a big guy can help with one of those.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2014 9:52:52 GMT -5
Because HAL were three top 100 recruits that we've turned into a combined 11 years of basically zero development. There's plenty of blame to go around, but turning what those three players were in high school into an upperclassmen frontcourt that can't even be described as close to serviceable is not good. Does anyone know what was the recruiting ranking for Hopper, Moses and Lubick? Lubick #44 Ayegba #105 Hopkins #91
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2014 8:44:16 GMT -5
Here's what I think we all found out this year with Larry Brown back in college basketball: none of these college coaches are really that good. They're all extremely reliant on the whims of a bunch of kids. Their basketball coaching ability is ok but it's really about the talent. Do I think JTIII has a grand plan? Yes but I don't think it would work. I still think he underestimates the impact Roy had on the efficiency of both his offensive and defensive schemes. So this is what we get. Hopkins was recruited as a five-tool big man, and well what is reality to say otherwise?
I'm just hoping for Josh Smith to be trimmed down and eligible. Because if he falls into place, next year's team is very good. I don't think JTIII will do anything else proactively to correct our doughnut hole at center and I think he truly believes Hop can still start.
So here's to random chance. It worked for JTIII in 2007, and maybe it will again next year.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2014 23:04:49 GMT -5
Time for him to go. Moses shouldn't be on the court. Yeah, bring back Esh!! Let's dump JT3 and while we are at it, let's grant a release to Copeland, White and LJP....who needs those guys!?! FOOL!!! Come on. We've wasted Wright, Freeman, Monroe, and Macklin. Surely we can screw these new four up. I know he's here forever so JTIII should be hearing it. He has no job pressure at all. So let people vent. There's no actual firing going on so it's all just letting frustration go.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2014 22:59:43 GMT -5
2pts 7 rebs 0 blks 4 turnovers 5 fouls
So glad we didn't try Hayes. He might have cost us the win.
Eff me, these guys don't even touch the ball that much and they had 4 of our 11 turnovers. Aaron out-rebounded all three by himself at 6'6 off the bench. Are you kidding me?
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2014 22:42:44 GMT -5
i'm a big fan of jtiii, but I put this on the coaching Six years with all his recruits and a win over Belmont is the result. Not much to say. He had to prove he can build a team for the postseason.
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