The 2013-2014 Big East: An RSCI Breakdown

[hoyaboya]

I didn't want to post this until the season was officially over, but I went back and looked at the RSCI rankings for rotation players on each of the 2013-2014 Big East teams. The results are below. A few initial observations:

- Creighton, the only team not to have any players ranked in high school, remarkably overachieved by finishing second in the conference.
- Georgetown, which had the most RSCI players of any Big East team, clearly underachieved by finishing seventh in the conference.
- Villanova seemed to do the best job of recruiting guys in the 40-80 range that are great fits for the program (interestingly, 2 of Villanova's 6 RSCI-ranked players probably could have been Hoyas had we offered them - Jenkins and Hart)
- Marquette has a lot of talent coming back next year
- Getting lots of highly ranked players does not appear to be a requirement to win in this version of the Big East

Villanova

• Class of 2010
o James Bell: 54
o JayVaughn Pinkston: 58
• Class of 2011
• Class of 2012
o Daniel Ochefu: 45
o Ryan Arcidiacono: 56
• Class of 2013
o Kris Jenkins: 74
o Josh Hart: 97

Creighton

• None

Providence

• Class of 2009
o Kadeem Batts: 198
• Class of 2010
o Carson Desrosiers: 66
• Class of 2011
o Tyler Harris: 132
• Class of 2012
o Kris Dunn: 20
• 2013

Xavier

• Class of 2010
o Justin Martin: 73
• Class of 2011
o Dee Davis: 118
o Jalen Reynolds: 121
• Class of 2012
o Semaj Christon: 55
o Myles Davis: 119
• Class of 2013
o Brandon Randolph: 211


St. John’s

• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Sir’Dominic Pointer: 40
o Jamal Branch: 54
o D’Angelo Harrison: 62
o Phil Greene: 179
• Class of 2012
o Chris Obekpa: 62
o JaKarr Sampson: 78
• Class of 2013
o Rysheed Jordan: 31

Marquette

• Class of 2009
o Jamil Wilson: 40
• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Juan Anderson: 96
o Derrick Wilson: 151
• Class of 2012
o Steve Taylor: 88
• Class of 2013
o JaJuan Johnson: 35
o Deonte Burton: 53
o Duane Wilson: 59 (Hasn’t played this year)
o John Dawson: 193

Georgetown

• Class of 2010
o Joshua Smith: 20
o Nate Lubick: 44
o Markel Starks: 90
o Moses Abraham (Ayegba): 105
o Aaron Bowen: 141
• Class of 2011
o Mikael Hopkins: 91
o Jabril Trawick: 125
• Class of 2012
o DSR: 37
o Stephen Domingo: 105
• Class of 2013
o Reggie Cameron: 86


Seton Hall

• Class of 2009:
o Brian Oliver: 165
• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Steling Gibbs: 181
• Class of 2012
• Class of 2013
o Jaren Sina: 139

Butler
• Class of 2010
o Khyle Marshall: 125
• Class of 2011
o Roosevelt Jones: 126
• Class of 2012
o Kellen Dunham: 90
• Class of 2013
o Elijah Brown: 176

DePaul
• Class of 2010
o Brandon Young: 147
• Class of 2011
o
• Class of 2012
• Class of 2013
o Billy Garrett, Jr.: 105
o R.J. Curington: 254

[njhoya78]

Found the following lead paragraph on the RSCIhoops website, which is apropos:

Welcome to the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI). RSCI is pronounced “risky” because drawing definitive conclusion from any such rankings is, indeed, risky at best. Be that as it may ...

If they themselves caution against drawing "definitive conclusions from any such rankings," I think we can and should avoid making declarative statements based upon such rankings.

[professorhoya]

Mar 16, 2014 14:14:34 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

I didn't want to post this until the season was officially over, but I went back and looked at the RSCI rankings for rotation players on each of the 2013-2014 Big East teams. The results are below. A few initial observations:

- Creighton, the only team not to have any players ranked in high school, remarkably overachieved by finishing second in the conference.
- Georgetown, which had the most RSCI players of any Big East team, clearly underachieved by finishing seventh in the conference.
- Villanova seemed to do the best job of recruiting guys in the 40-80 range that are great fits for the program (interestingly, 2 of Villanova's 6 RSCI-ranked players probably could have been Hoyas had we offered them - Jenkins and Hart)
- Marquette has a lot of talent coming back next year
- Getting lots of highly ranked players does not appear to be a requirement to win in this version of the Big East

Villanova

• Class of 2010
o James Bell: 54
o JayVaughn Pinkston: 58
• Class of 2011
• Class of 2012
o Daniel Ochefu: 45
o Ryan Arcidiacono: 56
• Class of 2013
o Kris Jenkins: 74
o Josh Hart: 97

Creighton

• None

Providence

• Class of 2009
o Kadeem Batts: 198
• Class of 2010
o Carson Desrosiers: 66
• Class of 2011
o Tyler Harris: 132
• Class of 2012
o Kris Dunn: 20
• 2013

Xavier

• Class of 2010
o Justin Martin: 73
• Class of 2011
o Dee Davis: 118
o Jalen Reynolds: 121
• Class of 2012
o Semaj Christon: 55
o Myles Davis: 119
• Class of 2013
o Brandon Randolph: 211


St. John’s

• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Sir’Dominic Pointer: 40
o Jamal Branch: 54
o D’Angelo Harrison: 62
o Phil Greene: 179
• Class of 2012
o Chris Obekpa: 62
o JaKarr Sampson: 78
• Class of 2013
o Rysheed Jordan: 31

Marquette

• Class of 2009
o Jamil Wilson: 40
• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Juan Anderson: 96
o Derrick Wilson: 151
• Class of 2012
o Steve Taylor: 88
• Class of 2013
o JaJuan Johnson: 35
o Deonte Burton: 53
o Duane Wilson: 59 (Hasn’t played this year)
o John Dawson: 193

Georgetown

• Class of 2010
o Joshua Smith: 20
o Nate Lubick: 44
o Markel Starks: 90
o Moses Abraham (Ayegba): 105
o Aaron Bowen: 141
• Class of 2011
o Mikael Hopkins: 91
o Jabril Trawick: 125
• Class of 2012
o DSR: 37
o Stephen Domingo: 105
• Class of 2013
o Reggie Cameron: 86


Seton Hall

• Class of 2009:
o Brian Oliver: 165
• Class of 2010
• Class of 2011
o Steling Gibbs: 181
• Class of 2012
• Class of 2013
o Jaren Sina: 139

Butler
• Class of 2010
o Khyle Marshall: 125
• Class of 2011
o Roosevelt Jones: 126
• Class of 2012
o Kellen Dunham: 90
• Class of 2013
o Elijah Brown: 176

DePaul
• Class of 2010
o Brandon Young: 147
• Class of 2011
o
• Class of 2012
• Class of 2013
o Billy Garrett, Jr.: 105
o R.J. Curington: 254

why did you include Josh Smirh but not Brandon Austin & Rodney Bullock for Providence. seems inconsistent.

[hoyaboya]

Smith played in games during the 2013-2014 season, Austin and Bullock did not (at least from what I could tell on the Providence website listing season stats for Providence players).

www.friars.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2013-2014/teamcume.html

[professorhoya]

Mar 16, 2014 14:35:40 GMT -5 hoyaboya said:

Smith played in games during the 2013-2014 season, Austin and Bullock did not (at least from what I could tell on the Providence website listing season stats for Providence players).

www.friars.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2013-2014/teamcume.html

so you don't think it skews your stats to include a player who was suspended and not available to the team for the majority of the season. if we had had Smith we make the tournament in all likelyhood as our bigs would not have gotten in foul trouble and mentally collapsed like Hopkins and Lubick did as a result.

[SFHoya99]

First, thank you for doing the work.

But if you are using this for underperformance/overperformance, Smith shouldn't be listed. Or should be set aside. If you are using it for recruiting power, other injured and departed players should be on here.

Where are you getting RSCI rankings over 100? The website doesn't have RSCI rankings over 100. Using Rivals or a single recruiting service as a proxy is not accurate -- one of the whole points of the aggregation is that there are 150-200 players ranked in a Top 100 somewhere. For example, I think Trawick was 125 in Scout or ESPN -- where you have him listed, but he didn't make Rivals Top 150.

Once you adjust for that, it basically comes down to: Hopkins and Lubick have underperformed. Which we kinda knew. Factor in the Trawick injury and yeah, we didn't overperform, but we know where some of the issues are.

[SFHoya99]

I think you could also make the case for St. John's still being the biggest underperformer, or right there with us. Six Top 100 recruits, including #31? That's too much for a bubble team. We had 5 and DSR, so pretty similar.

[GIGAFAN99]

Fyi SF, basketball reference has all these now.

[SFHoya99]

Mar 16, 2014 15:25:11 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Fyi SF, basketball reference has all these now.

Does it? That's cool -- where is it? I can't seem to find it.

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 16, 2014 15:33:36 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Mar 16, 2014 15:25:11 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Fyi SF, basketball reference has all these now.

Does it? That's cool -- where is it? I can't seem to find it.

Is under "awards and honors" all the way at the bottom in High School Honors. I just stumbled upon it looking at recruiting info.

[SFHoya99]

I must be blind, because I don't see it. It's on each player's page?

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 16, 2014 15:51:50 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I must be blind, because I don't see it. It's on each player's page?

Here you go.


www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2010.html

[GIGAFAN99]

I have to say, it is pretty remarkable that the Hoyas had 6103 of 6250 minutes (98%) played by RSCI ranked recruits in a league where only 4 other teams could even field 5 ranked players.

Draw whatever conclusions you want, but it's tough for the Hoyas to cry "talent deficit" to the rest of the league. You can try of course, but I'm betting opposing fans might roll their eyes.

[bmartin]

Doesn't this really point out how bad the recruit rankings are?

McDermott, Cotton, Gardner, Edwin, Wragge, and other notables were not legit prospects according to them. Maybe run and dunk AAU tournaments are not the most predictive tools.

[GIGAFAN99]

Mar 16, 2014 16:18:30 GMT -5 bmartin said:

Doesn't this really point out how bad the recruit rankings are?

McDermott, Cotton, Gardner, Edwin, Wragge, and other notables were not legit prospects according to them. Maybe run and dunk AAU tournaments are not the most predictive tools.

Nope 2/3 of the first and second all conference teams are on this list. There's always exceptions but would you rather look for diamonds in the rough or diamonds in diamond piles? Your call. I'll take the top 5 RSCI recruits in the Big East next year and you take any 5 unranked recruits of your choosing. Do as much research as you want. Best aggregate career stats win a beer at MSG.

[bmartin]

Of course if you pick 50 players with both plus size and athleticism for their position who are being recruited by high majors then at least half of them should turn out to be good players.

I could just take the WCAC 1st Team every year and probably 80 percent will be All Conference in a major conference at some point of their careers. It isn't that hard to rank high profile players.

But the misses were not diamonds in the rough. They were overlooked because they did not fit the profiles. I doubt there was ever a time in their lives when Nate Lubick was a better basketball player than McDermott.

[vanman]

Mar 16, 2014 16:35:44 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Mar 16, 2014 16:18:30 GMT -5 bmartin said:

Doesn't this really point out how bad the recruit rankings are?

McDermott, Cotton, Gardner, Edwin, Wragge, and other notables were not legit prospects according to them. Maybe run and dunk AAU tournaments are not the most predictive tools.

Nope 2/3 of the first and second all conference teams are on this list. There's always exceptions but would you rather look for diamonds in the rough or diamonds in diamond piles? Your call. I'll take the top 5 RSCI recruits in the Big East next year and you take any 5 unranked recruits of your choosing. Do as much research as you want. Best aggregate career stats win a beer at MSG.

I'm intrigued by this issue/claim of HS ratings. I've always suspected that after the top 30 it was pot luck. Perhaps I'm mistaken though. Certainly a beer would warrant further analysis.

[MCIGuy]

Mar 16, 2014 16:11:13 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

I have to say, it is pretty remarkable that the Hoyas had 6103 of 6250 minutes (98%) played by RSCI ranked recruits in a league where only 4 other teams could even field 5 ranked players.

Draw whatever conclusions you want, but it's tough for the Hoyas to cry "talent deficit" to the rest of the league. You can try of course, but I'm betting opposing fans might roll their eyes.

Well, let's look at that.

DSR and Starks surely took up a huge chunk of those minutes between them.

Josh had gobbled up many minutes of his own before he was put on the shelf for the remainder of the year. His absence hurts because the minutes he put in came mostly from non-conference play. So we had him but not when it really mattered.

Now let us look at the rest.

I've made this argument about Nate already: his lack of development was a bit of a blow to the team. While fans here tended to excuse his weaknesses and failures while pounding on the ills of Hopkins and Bowen, the fact is that Nate has been a starter for three years and gave us only solid rebounding and admirable passing skills for a big man. If he had been a 12 to 14 points a game type of guy his last three years, as his high school ranking would indicate he had the potential to be, this team may have actually done serious post season damage the previous two seasons and now. I'm not blaming Nate for the team's disappointments, but I am saying that not having any better options to push him aside and limit his minutes meant that for three seasons our second or third highest ranked RSCI guy, depending on the season, was someone defenses did not have to take seriously. And yet he started each of those years. Was Nate overrated coming out of high school? Maybe. If he was it was still the job of the coaches to develop him and raise his game or sit him and play someone else if none of their work made a difference. If he wasn’t overrated and just needed some coaxing and some skill refinement in the paint, then that was an utter failure by III and Co.

Moses isn’t a huge disappointment based upon his RSCI score but he has been an overall disappointment nonetheless. Maybe it was because of the late heated recruiting battle to win his services or because JT said that Moses was the best shotblocker he had seen since Patrick Ewing! Yeah, that may have been over the top. Nonetheless I give Moses somewhat of a pass because of that injury he suffered that cost him to miss his entire soph season. Looked like he had turned the corner big time during KL and then he went down. Hasn’t been the same, not even in Kenner reportedly, since. Yet just as with Nate it is hard at times to judge if the bigs are at fault or is the system because the bigs rarely get a chance to do their damage in the paint. They spend most time on the perimeter setting screens and rarely get the ball down low even if they post up down there.


Outside a few stretch of games last season, I would have placed Jabril on the disappointment list based upon his score (which is not very high but still far better than some of the dudes who were the top performers in the conference). Then he went down and came back a changed man who could now shoot from long distance as well as drive. Add that to his energy and leadership and ability to play defense to some degree and it looks like he should be a real boost to the team next year. And this season once he returned from his aw injury he had six or so games in which he scored double figures. I’m not sure if Nate had that many double figure scoring games this year alone. The Hoyas lost Jabril for five crucial games which was huge. But did the Hoyas lose out on the guy who had become more potent on offense during those five games or had they lost out merely on the complimentary player scoring five points a game that he has been for most of the last two seasons?

Bowen? I seriously don’t think he even plays if Greg Whittington had been around entirely last season and this season. I saw so much season development in his game this year that it makes me wonder where he could be now if he had a chance to take those lumps on the court much earlier in his career.

Hopkins is just not consistently good. One out of every four or five games he puts on a performance that make you salivate over his abilities, but that isn’t enough to overcome all the other games in which he is a non-factor or a source of on-court negativity for the team. At this stage in his career he is a disappointment. Hopefully he will get a chance at redemption his senior season, especially if he can play most of his minutes at the four.

Domingo does not play. If he lived up to even his so-so RCSI rankings the Hoyas a team would have been better served. Is that another case of being overrated or is it a case of lack of development? Did we bring him in too early and then let him drift?

Cameron’s play this season as a frosh is about where I would have expected from a guy with his ranking coming out of high school who was known to have some struggles on defense. I may be higher on him than most; I really think he has a chance to be a dangerous shooter and scorer, even if it is from off the bench. At least he broke the rotation unlike Domingo. For those who may not think all that much of him just try imagining him playing for Creighton over the next few years in that system. Tell me he couldn’t thrive in such a system and for a team that was known for doing well despite having a handful of guys who weren’t exactly hawks on defense.


So it would appear that we have been hurt as a team from our four bigs. All were ranked but all four had huge deficiencies. They either could not score, or could not hold on to the ball, or could not rotate on defense, or could not rebound as well expected or could not stay on the court because of grades. And only one of them had anything resembling a jumpshot and that was Hopkins.

[MCIGuy]

Mar 16, 2014 16:57:16 GMT -5 bmartin said:

Of course if you pick 50 players with both plus size and athleticism for their position who are being recruited by high majors then at least half of them should turn out to be good players.

I could just take the WCAC 1st Team every year and probably 80 percent will be All Conference in a major conference at some point of their careers. It isn't that hard to rank high profile players.

But the misses were not diamonds in the rough. They were overlooked because they did not fit the profiles. I doubt there was ever a time in their lives when Nate Lubick was a better basketball player than McDermott.

Yet Nate was making All Tournament team virtually every time his team played in a high profile high school tournament, while no one knew who McBuckets was. You can argue that McBuckets may never had had the opportunities but can you just as easily make a case that Nate somehow wasn't deserving of all the recognition he was getting repeatedly during his final two years in high school? That somehow he had merely lucked out on all those double-double performances against some of the top teams and players in the nation?

[SFHoya99]

Mar 16, 2014 15:59:30 GMT -5 GIGAFAN99 said:

Mar 16, 2014 15:51:50 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

I must be blind, because I don't see it. It's on each player's page?

Here you go.


www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2010.html

Thanks.

Anyone over 100 is being based solely on Rivals and Scout rankings - which the RSCI site doesn't do but apparently basketball-reference is.