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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 5, 2017 20:32:54 GMT -5
Except, at the time of his losing seasons he did not. That is just not a fair comparison. Jay Wright started at Villanova, went thru a rebuild, then made the NCAA's 7 years in a row, before taking a year off to rebuild. How that compares to JT3 I do not understand. You can't rebuild for 3 years when you've been at the same school for 10 years. That's not rebuilding - that's consistent bad recruiting. We aren't on a three year rebuild. We were a 4 seed *two* years ago.
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hoyajinx
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Post by hoyajinx on Mar 5, 2017 20:43:47 GMT -5
That is just not a fair comparison. Jay Wright started at Villanova, went thru a rebuild, then made the NCAA's 7 years in a row, before taking a year off to rebuild. How that compares to JT3 I do not understand. You can't rebuild for 3 years when you've been at the same school for 10 years. That's not rebuilding - that's consistent bad recruiting. We aren't on a three year rebuild. We were a 4 seed *two* years ago. I would imagine he would be including next year because we will not appreciably better, and will likely be worse, than we were this year. The components to be a good team just aren't there. We need a solid 2018 recruiting class no matter who the coach is or the rebuilding will extend well beyond that.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Mar 5, 2017 20:55:11 GMT -5
We aren't on a three year rebuild. We were a 4 seed *two* years ago. I would imagine he would be including next year because we will not appreciably better, and will likely be worse, than we were this year. The components to be a good team just aren't there. We need a solid 2018 recruiting class no matter who the coach is or the rebuilding will extend well beyond that. The big bad four seed who $hit its pants all week having to play the mighty Eastern Washington only to lose to a five seed that all of the apologists said should have been ranked higher. Always good with the excuses. Eastern Washington still ranks as our best tournament win since our takedown of Belmont only to lose to 11 seed NC State.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by guru on Mar 5, 2017 20:58:33 GMT -5
Except, at the time of his losing seasons he did not. That is just not a fair comparison. Jay Wright started at Villanova, went thru a rebuild, then made the NCAA's 7 years in a row, before taking a year off to rebuild. How that compares to JT3 I do not understand. You can't rebuild for 3 years when you've been at the same school for 10 years. That's not rebuilding - that's consistent bad recruiting. Of course it's not fair. Or valid. It is a willfully ignorant comparison made by a poster who is now reduced to defending our head coach by pointing out that he has not had three consecutive losing seasons - yet.
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,599
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Post by guru on Mar 5, 2017 21:02:45 GMT -5
We aren't on a three year rebuild. We were a 4 seed *two* years ago. I would imagine he would be including next year because we will not appreciably better, and will likely be worse, than we were this year. The components to be a good team just aren't there. We need a solid 2018 recruiting class no matter who the coach is or the rebuilding will extend well beyond that. A four seed! (Nothing to sneeze at but really not something a program with our tradition should be reduced to trumpeting as a notable achievement) Two, er, *Two* years ago! (an eternity in today's college basketball world) ... and a second round loss to a lower seeded team. Maybe back to the drawing board?
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eagle54
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,471
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Post by eagle54 on Mar 5, 2017 21:03:20 GMT -5
That is just not a fair comparison. Jay Wright started at Villanova, went thru a rebuild, then made the NCAA's 7 years in a row, before taking a year off to rebuild. How that compares to JT3 I do not understand. You can't rebuild for 3 years when you've been at the same school for 10 years. That's not rebuilding - that's consistent bad recruiting. Of course it's not fair. Or valid. It is a willfully ignorant comparison made by a poster who is now reduced to defending our head coach by pointing out that he has not had three consecutive losing seasons - yet. Don't forget Penn State and Nebraska are in similar situations. Difference is, the Yates intramural teams take basketball more serious than those programs. Basketball is all we have.
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
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Post by This Just In on Mar 5, 2017 21:11:08 GMT -5
Of course it's not fair. Or valid. It is a willfully ignorant comparison made by a poster who is now reduced to defending our head coach by pointing out that he has not had three consecutive losing seasons - yet. Don't forget Penn State and Nebraska are in similar situations. Difference is, the Yates intramural teams take basketball more serious than those programs. Basketball is all we have. Sad state when the basketball program is being compared with other programs at football dominant Big 10 schools
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Mar 5, 2017 21:44:12 GMT -5
I can't think of a single P5 program that isn't rebuilding with a new coach that would accept back to back losing seasons without change. It's really hard to have losing seasons in CBB. This was discussed before. There are at least five major college schools in a similar position: 1. Nebraska: Three straight losing season under Tim Miles 2. Missouri: Three straight losing seasons under Kim Anderson 3. Washington State: Three straight losing seasons under Ernie Kent 4. Penn State: Consecutive non-winning seasons under Pat Chambers 5. Mississippi State: Consecutive non-winning seasons under Ben Howland (Perennial underachievers such as Rutgers and BC do not count.) Correct. It can be and is much worse for any number of other major-conference teams. The notion that two straight losing seasons means the coach is beheaded immediately is false.
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eagle54
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Post by eagle54 on Mar 5, 2017 21:57:56 GMT -5
This was discussed before. There are at least five major college schools in a similar position: 1. Nebraska: Three straight losing season under Tim Miles 2. Missouri: Three straight losing seasons under Kim Anderson 3. Washington State: Three straight losing seasons under Ernie Kent 4. Penn State: Consecutive non-winning seasons under Pat Chambers 5. Mississippi State: Consecutive non-winning seasons under Ben Howland (Perennial underachievers such as Rutgers and BC do not count.) Correct. It can be and is much worse for any number of other major-conference teams. The notion that two straight losing seasons means the coach is beheaded immediately is false. You said the same about Esh as pointed out by TJI. However, maybe your point was Esh was the better recruiter. Either way I think you have to check your credibility card and just admit we could have Jack the Bulldog calling the shots and you'd post the same nonsense. I do enjoy your posts and think that's what makes a message board but still funny.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Mar 6, 2017 9:08:42 GMT -5
I am not going to engage in a personal argument, but I will say the following:
I reject the "win-at-all-costs" or "treat athletics like a business" attitude that pervades college sports. I want GU to have no part in it. I think they can do so and still win, but I would rather lose doing things the right way that stoop to that level. That is my viewpoint and I am willing to take the good with the bad.
I was a PROUD supporter of Craig Esherick and believe he was terminated too soon. From my perspective, the proof was in the pudding of his final recruiting class, and I believe he would have turned things around- but we will never know, and that debate is over, but it taught me a lot. While I do not think Esh was a great game manager, he was a far cry from the incompetent moron that some tried to portray. The reality is that when things are bad, myriad Monday-morning QBs will come out of the woodwork to attack your every move. That is very sad.
Having said that, JT III's resume can stand on its own merits. His success speaks for itself. A number of posters seem to see some awful trend that is some sort of "death spiral" for GU basketball. When I watch, I see nothing of the sort. I see a team that has some flaws but has been one player away from being very solid even during the last two rough seasons. It is not as if blowouts have been the norm during that time. Rather than seeing a bunch of games that bad coaching somehow has lost, I have seen a lot of games I thought the team was lucky to be in and was in that position due in large part to preparation and strategy. Obviously, different fans perceive different things, and I respect that.
What I do not respect is the personal attacks on the coach, the program, and the fans who support GU basketball through thick and thin. If you want a new coach, make your case in a respectful and positive (and quite likely confidential) manner, but continue to support the team. Being a fan, to me, means being right there through thick and thin. Now is the thin part. It is not time to jump ship or attack the very program I support.
We can agree to disagree, and we can do it without trying to belittle other posters. Have enough confidence in your own opinion that you can voice in a respectful and honorable manner. There is no need to attack credibility, make references to Nazis, etc.
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miracles87
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,150
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Post by miracles87 on Mar 6, 2017 11:45:45 GMT -5
I am not going to engage in a personal argument, but I will say the following: I reject the "win-at-all-costs" or "treat athletics like a business" attitude that pervades college sports. I want GU to have no part in it. I think they can do so and still win, but I would rather lose doing things the right way that stoop to that level. That is my viewpoint and I am willing to take the good with the bad. I was a PROUD supporter of Craig Esherick and believe he was terminated too soon. From my perspective, the proof was in the pudding of his final recruiting class, and I believe he would have turned things around- but we will never know, and that debate is over, but it taught me a lot. While I do not think Esh was a great game manager, he was a far cry from the incompetent moron that some tried to portray. The reality is that when things are bad, myriad Monday-morning QBs will come out of the woodwork to attack your every move. That is very sad. Having said that, JT III's resume can stand on its own merits. His success speaks for itself. A number of posters seem to see some awful trend that is some sort of "death spiral" for GU basketball. When I watch, I see nothing of the sort. I see a team that has some flaws but has been one player away from being very solid even during the last two rough seasons. It is not as if blowouts have been the norm during that time. Rather than seeing a bunch of games that bad coaching somehow has lost, I have seen a lot of games I thought the team was lucky to be in and was in that position due in large part to preparation and strategy. Obviously, different fans perceive different things, and I respect that. What I do not respect is the personal attacks on the coach, the program, and the fans who support GU basketball through thick and thin. If you want a new coach, make your case in a respectful and positive (and quite likely confidential) manner, but continue to support the team. Being a fan, to me, means being right there through thick and thin. Now is the thin part. It is not time to jump ship or attack the very program I support. We can agree to disagree, and we can do it without trying to belittle other posters. Have enough confidence in your own opinion that you can voice in a respectful and honorable manner. There is no need to attack credibility, make references to Nazis, etc. I agree with everything but the Nazi part. The Internet wouldn't be fun if you couldn't call everybody a Nazi! Don't be a Nazi Nazi!!!! Ahem
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,599
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Post by guru on Mar 6, 2017 12:00:38 GMT -5
I am not going to engage in a personal argument, but I will say the following: I reject the "win-at-all-costs" or "treat athletics like a business" attitude that pervades college sports. I want GU to have no part in it. I think they can do so and still win, but I would rather lose doing things the right way that stoop to that level. That is my viewpoint and I am willing to take the good with the bad. I was a PROUD supporter of Craig Esherick and believe he was terminated too soon. From my perspective, the proof was in the pudding of his final recruiting class, and I believe he would have turned things around- but we will never know, and that debate is over, but it taught me a lot. While I do not think Esh was a great game manager, he was a far cry from the incompetent moron that some tried to portray. The reality is that when things are bad, myriad Monday-morning QBs will come out of the woodwork to attack your every move. That is very sad. Having said that, JT III's resume can stand on its own merits. His success speaks for itself. A number of posters seem to see some awful trend that is some sort of "death spiral" for GU basketball. When I watch, I see nothing of the sort. I see a team that has some flaws but has been one player away from being very solid even during the last two rough seasons. It is not as if blowouts have been the norm during that time. Rather than seeing a bunch of games that bad coaching somehow has lost, I have seen a lot of games I thought the team was lucky to be in and was in that position due in large part to preparation and strategy. Obviously, different fans perceive different things, and I respect that. What I do not respect is the personal attacks on the coach, the program, and the fans who support GU basketball through thick and thin. If you want a new coach, make your case in a respectful and positive (and quite likely confidential) manner, but continue to support the team. Being a fan, to me, means being right there through thick and thin. Now is the thin part. It is not time to jump ship or attack the very program I support. We can agree to disagree, and we can do it without trying to belittle other posters. Have enough confidence in your own opinion that you can voice in a respectful and honorable manner. There is no need to attack credibility, make references to Nazis, etc. This was a worthwhile post. I still vehemently disagree with your perspective - but this gives some insight into what's behind it. And as the administration is certainly in your camp, I hope your faith and patience will be rewarded.
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Post by practice on Mar 6, 2017 12:07:53 GMT -5
I am not going to engage in a personal argument, but I will say the following: I reject the "win-at-all-costs" or "treat athletics like a business" attitude that pervades college sports. I want GU to have no part in it. I think they can do so and still win, but I would rather lose doing things the right way that stoop to that level. That is my viewpoint and I am willing to take the good with the bad. I was a PROUD supporter of Craig Esherick and believe he was terminated too soon. From my perspective, the proof was in the pudding of his final recruiting class, and I believe he would have turned things around- but we will never know, and that debate is over, but it taught me a lot. While I do not think Esh was a great game manager, he was a far cry from the incompetent moron that some tried to portray. The reality is that when things are bad, myriad Monday-morning QBs will come out of the woodwork to attack your every move. That is very sad. Having said that, JT III's resume can stand on its own merits. His success speaks for itself. A number of posters seem to see some awful trend that is some sort of "death spiral" for GU basketball. When I watch, I see nothing of the sort. I see a team that has some flaws but has been one player away from being very solid even during the last two rough seasons. It is not as if blowouts have been the norm during that time. Rather than seeing a bunch of games that bad coaching somehow has lost, I have seen a lot of games I thought the team was lucky to be in and was in that position due in large part to preparation and strategy. Obviously, different fans perceive different things, and I respect that. What I do not respect is the personal attacks on the coach, the program, and the fans who support GU basketball through thick and thin. If you want a new coach, make your case in a respectful and positive (and quite likely confidential) manner, but continue to support the team. Being a fan, to me, means being right there through thick and thin. Now is the thin part. It is not time to jump ship or attack the very program I support. We can agree to disagree, and we can do it without trying to belittle other posters. Have enough confidence in your own opinion that you can voice in a respectful and honorable manner. There is no need to attack credibility, make references to Nazis, etc. Too bad the University seems to "treat athletics like a business", to wit paying their head coach nearly $3 million a year, building a $65 million practice facility to compete, playing in a NBA arena, offering athletic scholarships to "student" athletes who are less than scholars (Whittington, Egerson, Butler, Page ...), taking the lead in negotiating TV contracts (Fox over ESPN) for the league ... the list goes on. You, my friend, should start following Patriot League or Ivy League basketball. I've been a season ticket holder since 1995. I've seen the good, the bad and the ugly. We are now firmly past the bad and well into the ugly. The good was more than 3 years ago. 2014-15 was an OK team ... DSR was never going to lead us to the promised land ... the promise on that team was the great recruiting class which subsequently fell apart. I don't think any of the naysayers are calling for a pay-to-play or one-and-done system at Georgetown. There is an expectation that given the major investment -- DFW reported that GU spent $10M on Men's Basketball in 2012, before JT3's contract was re-upped -- that the school will produce a WINNING program that will be NATIONALLY or at least REGIONALLY relevant. Do you think that Nova, Creighton, Marquette and Butler are cesspools of malfeasance? I don't ... I think those schools are committed to winning basketball .. not at all costs, but they hold their coaches and programs accountable. There's a big difference between Ivy League basketball (which you seem to be advocating) and the 1992 Running Rebels.
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eagle54
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,471
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Post by eagle54 on Mar 6, 2017 20:30:44 GMT -5
I am not going to engage in a personal argument, but I will say the following: I reject the "win-at-all-costs" or "treat athletics like a business" attitude that pervades college sports. I want GU to have no part in it. I think they can do so and still win, but I would rather lose doing things the right way that stoop to that level. That is my viewpoint and I am willing to take the good with the bad. I was a PROUD supporter of Craig Esherick and believe he was terminated too soon. From my perspective, the proof was in the pudding of his final recruiting class, and I believe he would have turned things around- but we will never know, and that debate is over, but it taught me a lot. While I do not think Esh was a great game manager, he was a far cry from the incompetent moron that some tried to portray. The reality is that when things are bad, myriad Monday-morning QBs will come out of the woodwork to attack your every move. That is very sad. Having said that, JT III's resume can stand on its own merits. His success speaks for itself. A number of posters seem to see some awful trend that is some sort of "death spiral" for GU basketball. When I watch, I see nothing of the sort. I see a team that has some flaws but has been one player away from being very solid even during the last two rough seasons. It is not as if blowouts have been the norm during that time. Rather than seeing a bunch of games that bad coaching somehow has lost, I have seen a lot of games I thought the team was lucky to be in and was in that position due in large part to preparation and strategy. Obviously, different fans perceive different things, and I respect that. What I do not respect is the personal attacks on the coach, the program, and the fans who support GU basketball through thick and thin. If you want a new coach, make your case in a respectful and positive (and quite likely confidential) manner, but continue to support the team. Being a fan, to me, means being right there through thick and thin. Now is the thin part. It is not time to jump ship or attack the very program I support. We can agree to disagree, and we can do it without trying to belittle other posters. Have enough confidence in your own opinion that you can voice in a respectful and honorable manner. There is no need to attack credibility, make references to Nazis, etc. Too bad the University seems to "treat athletics like a business", to wit paying their head coach nearly $3 million a year, building a $65 million practice facility to compete, playing in a NBA arena, offering athletic scholarships to "student" athletes who are less than scholars (Whittington, Egerson, Butler, Page ...), taking the lead in negotiating TV contracts (Fox over ESPN) for the league ... the list goes on. You, my friend, should start following Patriot League or Ivy League basketball. I've been a season ticket holder since 1995. I've seen the good, the bad and the ugly. We are now firmly past the bad and well into the ugly. The good was more than 3 years ago. 2014-15 was an OK team ... DSR was never going to lead us to the promised land ... the promise on that team was the great recruiting class which subsequently fell apart. I don't think any of the naysayers are calling for a pay-to-play or one-and-done system at Georgetown. There is an expectation that given the major investment -- DFW reported that GU spent $10M on Men's Basketball in 2012, before JT3's contract was re-upped -- that the school will produce a WINNING program that will be NATIONALLY or at least REGIONALLY relevant. Do you think that Nova, Creighton, Marquette and Butler are cesspools of malfeasance? I don't ... I think those schools are committed to winning basketball .. not at all costs, but they hold their coaches and programs accountable. There's a big difference between Ivy League basketball (which you seem to be advocating) and the 1992 Running Rebels. Jay Wright's job has been made easy as all he has to do is pick through the pieces from the DC area that this program missed on. I also think Villanova at this point is a program with less issues than our own. Even though we tout this coach as the only one that can do that. Nova doesn't have the graduation issues, transfers and now ex players bad mouthing its coach. Seems to be beating us on all fronts.
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bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
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Post by bamahoya11 on Mar 6, 2017 21:19:48 GMT -5
Over the past couple days, I've been keeping up with the comments on the board and trying to think to myself what the program would look like if we keep JTIII. Although I support a change, I think 2003 and others have advanced plenty of reasonable, thoughtful arguments for retention. But then I looked at our roster, looked at our recruiting, and thought about where we are and where we would be if we keep JTIII. Here are the three outcomes I came up with in the "keep JTIII" scenario:
(1) The "Good" Outcome: 2017-18: The entire team returns in its current form, minus the seniors. JTIII uses Rodney Pryor's successful integration into Georgetown's system to lure another graduate transfer to the Hilltop to join the incoming class. The grad transfer essentially replaces Pryor's minutes and output. JTIII continues to tweak the offense, and freshman Tremont Waters is a sensation, leading the team in assists and scoring 10-12 points per game. Senior LJ Peak leads the team, and Marcus Derrickson and Jessie Govan take steps forward. Georgetown surprises everyone with a top 3 Big East finish and returns to the NCAA Tournament. The staff immediately uses the positive momentum to build its 2019 recruiting class. 2018-19: The team takes an immediate step back, as LJ Peak graduates and Waters hits a bit of a wall in his sophomore campaign. The Hoyas contend for an NCAA berth for a period but ultimately finish 7th in the Big East and slide into the NIT. Calls for JTIII to leave grow again. But the staff stays focused and hauls in a top 10 recruiting class that fits the school's profile. 2019-20: On the strength of its 2019 recruiting class, junior Tremont Waters leads Georgetown to a Big East regular season title and a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The team continues to haul in top 20 classes and a consistent top 20 program reemerges.
(2) The "Bad" Outcome: We don't improve. Waters struggles as a freshman and/or lacks the supporting cast around him to meaningfully improve from last season. The team continues to play poor defense and finishes with a sub-.500 record. JTIII is fired at the end of the season, but the strife and angst present on this board over the past few weeks continues in full force for a whole year. Chants begin filling Verizon by December and continue through Big East play. A messy, public divorce from the Thompsons become messier and more public, with dueling media columns and at times aggressive confrontations among fans at the Verizon Center. Former players pick sides, first anonymously and then publicly. The public unraveling affects our ability to attract a top-tier candidate, and the squabbling carries over into JTIII's successor's reign. Georgetown goes through a sustained period of struggles with no positive outcome in sight.
(3) The "Mediocre" Outcome: 2017-18: Georgetown improves just enough for JTIII to keep his job. The team is solidly above .500, wins a couple key games in non-conference play and finishes 7th in the Big East. Georgetown wins a game or two in the NIT, and the school announces that JTIII will stay. 2018-19: Georgetown again makes the NIT, this time barely, and it loses in the first round. Calls for JTIII's dismissal are loud, but the University retains him. 2019-20: Georgetown finishes 5th in the Big East and advances to the NCAAs as a 9 seed, losing in the first round.
I don't really see any outcomes beyond these three, particularly when it comes to a "good" outcome. However you draw it up, I think must of us would say that a "good" program is basically a top 20 program with solid recruits, consistent NCAA appearances, and regular contention in the Big East. To get back on that track, I think JTIII basically has to have some "magical" season that catapults our recruiting efforts a couple years down the line. As it sits, there is just too much apathy and we are too far behind to make a dent until something happens to spark a buzz within the program. If we keep the coach, the only thing I see to spark the buzz is winning.
Once I look at the outcomes this way, a change makes sense to me. For JTIII, the "good" outcome basically depends on a very fortunate outcome based more on hope than reason. The far likelier outcomes are a messy, prolonged public split or essentially basketball purgatory.
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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 6, 2017 21:35:54 GMT -5
Over the past couple days, I've been keeping up with the comments on the board and trying to think to myself what the program would look like if we keep JTIII. Although I support a change, I think 2003 and others have advanced plenty of reasonable, thoughtful arguments for retention. But then I looked at our roster, looked at our recruiting, and thought about where we are and where we would be if we keep JTIII. Here are the three outcomes I came up with in the "keep JTIII" scenario: (1) The "Good" Outcome: 2017-18: The entire team returns in its current form, minus the seniors. JTIII uses Rodney Pryor's successful integration into Georgetown's system to lure another graduate transfer to the Hilltop to join the incoming class. The grad transfer essentially replaces Pryor's minutes and output. JTIII continues to tweak the offense, and freshman Tremont Waters is a sensation, leading the team in assists and scoring 10-12 points per game. Senior LJ Peak leads the team, and Marcus Derrickson and Jessie Govan take steps forward. Georgetown surprises everyone with a top 3 Big East finish and returns to the NCAA Tournament. The staff immediately uses the positive momentum to build its 2019 recruiting class. 2018-19: The team takes an immediate step back, as LJ Peak graduates and Waters hits a bit of a wall in his sophomore campaign. The Hoyas contend for an NCAA berth for a period but ultimately finish 7th in the Big East and slide into the NIT. Calls for JTIII to leave grow again. But the staff stays focused and hauls in a top 10 recruiting class that fits the school's profile. 2019-20: On the strength of its 2019 recruiting class, junior Tremont Waters leads Georgetown to a Big East regular season title and a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The team continues to haul in top 20 classes and a consistent top 20 program reemerges. (2) The "Bad" Outcome: We don't improve. Waters struggles as a freshman and/or lacks the supporting cast around him to meaningfully improve from last season. The team continues to play poor defense and finishes with a sub-.500 record. JTIII is fired at the end of the season, but the strife and angst present on this board over the past few weeks continues in full force for a whole year. Chants begin filling Verizon by December and continue through Big East play. A messy, public divorce from the Thompsons become messier and more public, with dueling media columns and at times aggressive confrontations among fans at the Verizon Center. Former players pick sides, first anonymously and then publicly. The public unraveling affects our ability to attract a top-tier candidate, and the squabbling carries over into JTIII's successor's reign. Georgetown goes through a sustained period of struggles with no positive outcome in sight. (3) The "Mediocre" Outcome: 2017-18: Georgetown improves just enough for JTIII to keep his job. The team is solidly above .500, wins a couple key games in non-conference play and finishes 7th in the Big East. Georgetown wins a game or two in the NIT, and the school announces that JTIII will stay. 2018-19: Georgetown again makes the NIT, this time barely, and it loses in the first round. Calls for JTIII's dismissal are loud, but the University retains him. 2019-20: Georgetown finishes 5th in the Big East and advances to the NCAAs as a 9 seed, losing in the first round. I don't really see any outcomes beyond these three, particularly when it comes to a "good" outcome. However you draw it up, I think must of us would say that a "good" program is basically a top 20 program with solid recruits, consistent NCAA appearances, and regular contention in the Big East. To get back on that track, I think JTIII basically has to have some "magical" season that catapults our recruiting efforts a couple years down the line. As it sits, there is just too much apathy and we are too far behind to make a dent until something happens to spark a buzz within the program. If we keep the coach, the only thing I see to spark the buzz is winning. Once I look at the outcomes this way, a change makes sense to me. For JTIII, the "good" outcome basically depends on a very fortunate outcome based more on hope than reason. The far likelier outcomes are a messy, prolonged public split or essentially basketball purgatory. How about the "delusional" outcome? 2017-18: The entire team returns in its current form, minus the seniors. JTIII uses Rodney Pryor's successful integration into Georgetown's system to lure another graduate transfer to the Hilltop to join the incoming class. The grad transfer essentially replaces Pryor's minutes and output. JTIII continues to tweak the offense, and freshman Tremont Waters is a sensation, leading the team in assists and scoring 10-12 points per game. Senior LJ Peak leads the team, and Marcus Derrickson and Jessie Govan take steps forward. Georgetown surprises everyone with a top 3 Big East finish and returns to the NCAA Tournament. The staff immediately uses the positive momentum to build its 2019 recruiting class. 2018-19: Marcus and Govan build on their successful JR campaigns and with the help of Waters and Walker who is ready for minutes The Hoyas take some time to find their scoring without Peak, but end up making it as a 9 seed into the NCAAs. Calls for JTIII to leave grow again. The staff stays focused and hauls in a top 10 recruiting class that fits the school's profile. 2019-20: On the strength of its 2019 recruiting class, junior Tremont Waters leads Georgetown to a Big East regular season title and a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The team continues to haul in top 20 classes and a consistent top 20 program reemerges. While not truly delusional (that would involve a NC and one and dones), it would be quite the turnaround.
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bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
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Post by bamahoya11 on Mar 6, 2017 21:41:53 GMT -5
Hometown, your point re: the delusional outcome is taken. Indeed, I wanted to create a "good" outcome that sorta got us back to more or less where we were from say 2006-2013. Regular NCAA tournaments, good talent, but no huge promises (national championships, etc.). And when I did that, I realized how far away we are. I think a lot of the pro JTIII folks think that if we stick with it, those days will come back soon. Maybe they will, but a WHOLE lot of things have to go right for that to happen.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 6, 2017 21:58:44 GMT -5
I think a lot of the pro JTIII folks think that if we stick with it, those days will come back soon. Maybe they will, but a WHOLE lot of things have to go right for that to happen. I don't disagree. To turn things around things need to go right, we need to recruit well, even maybe be the beneficiary of a little luck too. But keep in mind if we start over with a new coach, a lot of the same things would need to happen for success. The odds of a JT3-like immediate success with a new coach are low, though not impossible.
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eagle54
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,471
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Post by eagle54 on Mar 6, 2017 23:08:20 GMT -5
I think a lot of the pro JTIII folks think that if we stick with it, those days will come back soon. Maybe they will, but a WHOLE lot of things have to go right for that to happen. I don't disagree. To turn things around things need to go right, we need to recruit well, even maybe be the beneficiary of a little luck too. But keep in mind if we start over with a new coach, a lot of the same things would need to happen for success. The odds of a JT3-like immediate success with a new coach are low, though not impossible. You are going to edit his statement like that? Even for you that is a new low. Dan isn't that a suspendable offense for changing a prior posters meaning?
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bamahoya11
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,831
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Post by bamahoya11 on Mar 7, 2017 0:13:00 GMT -5
I think a lot of the pro JTIII folks think that if we stick with it, those days will come back soon. Maybe they will, but a WHOLE lot of things have to go right for that to happen. I don't disagree. To turn things around things need to go right, we need to recruit well, even maybe be the beneficiary of a little luck too. But keep in mind if we start over with a new coach, a lot of the same things would need to happen for success. The odds of a JT3-like immediate success with a new coach are low, though not impossible. That's true, hiring a new coach means a commitment to a lengthy rebuild process. Assuming for a moment that we could hire a "good" new coach (and there are a whole lot of divisions on this board as to whom might be such a coach), I think the realistic expectation would be that he could make the Dance by the end of his third season. That means we are in the NCAA Tournament again in March 2020, and I wouldn't flinch if you were to tell me even that is a bit optimistic. Additionally, I think that's a barometer for making the field again, not necessarily winning a game. For what it's worth, that's basically the track that Wojo is on at Marquette. He took over a Marquette team that went 17-15 with no postseason the year before he arrived and is now poised to make the NCAA Tournament at the end of his third season. I would argue that something more or less like what Wojo has done would be a "good" outcome for us on the coaching front. That outcome is still lower than the "good" outcome that I laid out for JTIII, but it's also not just a crazy "delusional" outcome, which I suppose would be hoping for something like what Chris Holtmann did at Butler (immediately propelling a team coming off a losing season to the NCAAs and never looking back). But I also see more upside in taking on this challenge now. First, there is a very good chance that we end up in this spot next year, but only after a whole year of pulling off the band-aid. If we are going to separate from the Thompsons, I would argue that it's better to go ahead than do it now instead of after another year of this protracted fight in the media, among the program's stakeholders, and within the fan base. I think it does less damage. Second, having a new person at the helm would provide us with a spark in recruiting and evaluation. The new coach would have his own system and methods for evaluating talent. The new coach would also lend fresh eyes to the recruiting process, and this is the spark I think we most desperately need. We need more imaginative game planning and more careful recruitment and evaluation. And, whereas my long post above focused on the next three years, I think the new coach option might easily provide a more attractive 5-10 year outlook for the program. I'll meet you in the middle in two respects, though: (1) It will be hard to hire a "good" coach. Even this board can't agree on whether we hire an alum with connections to the Thompsons (what I've called the "Ewing plan"), a top-tier mid-major coach (e.g., Archie Miller), an up-and-coming but less proven mid-major coach (i.e., the guy at Monmouth or someone from a UNC-alphabet school), a guy who is focused on academics (e.g., Amaker), or a proven name from a major school looking for a change of scenery (e.g., Crean, Matta, etc.). Georgetown doesn't have institutional experience doing searches like this, and it's a bit of a reach to believe that they would suddenly manage to pull something like this off when, in my view, they've already mismanaged some of the smaller aspects of this situation in recent weeks (the SID's handling of the Villanova postgame, the lack of a media strategy to deal with media criticism, etc.). (2) If the administration stands behind JTIII, the fan base should try as best they can to be supportive. The fans actually have some ability to control the "bad" outcome that I discussed above by refusing to let any administrative decision completely tear apart the fan base. As you know, I'd like to see a change. But if we don't get one, I would actually recommend the opposite of angry letters, chants at the start of next season, and surrendering season tickets. I would suggest that we all then have to work that much harder to try to be supportive in any way that we can. And that we try to cheer the team on and encourage the staff. The fan base is also something that a recruit considers when deciding where they want to go to school. And I'd like prospective student athletes to think that we are a devoted, passionate fan base that also cares about them and will do everything we can to support them, whoever the coach is. So, I guess that's me making a direct counter to some of the others also in the anti-JTIII camp. I will not and would not encourage a sort of boycott of the program, although I do understand the frustration. Sorry for another long post in this conversation. I happen to think that, whatever happens, the next week is an important one for the men's basketball program. For one, it's the Big East Tournament, and we still have one last chance to make a run this year. But even if we do not, the administration will likely make its decision, and I think it's important for the fan base to try as hard as it can to come together.
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