Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Mar 17, 2008 0:31:47 GMT -5
I think the selection committee did something interesting by placing us second and Wisconsin third in the Midwest. It allowed for the fact that our conference is considerably better than the one the Badgers won but gave the Badgers a semi-home court against us in the potential Sweet Sixteen matchup, essentially making the seeding a wash even though they might be expected to play higher seeds (14 & 6 vs 15 & 7, even though our 7 & 10 are both ranked higher in the polls than their 6) to get there. This seems to indicate that the committee thought we were really no better than them, despite the seed, and that they were willing to put the combination of us and the highest 3-seed up against the lowest 1-seed (Kansas) since they couldn't put Texas there. I like the fact that they put Tennessee in UNC's region, mitigating the Charlotte advantage to some degree and I really like their choice to put Duke in DC instead of Raleigh, making them work at least a little to get to the regionals. I also find it peculiar that both the 10 and 11 seeds in our region got semi-home games against higher seeds - it should be an interesting first 2 rounds! I don't buy the semi home court aspect in regard to Wisconsin. Madison is 425 miles away from Detroit (DC is 525). As a former resident of Detroit I can testify that Big Ten loyalty is almost non-existent - it is all about the individual teams and specific rivalries - and I am pretty sure I never met a Wisconsin fan in 15 years in the area. Detroit will be a neutral court. I agree. There's no semi-home court for the Badgers in Detroit. |
|
|
|
Post by grokamok on Mar 17, 2008 1:55:35 GMT -5
I don't buy the semi home court aspect in regard to Wisconsin. Madison is 425 miles away from Detroit (DC is 525). As a former resident of Detroit I can testify that Big Ten loyalty is almost non-existent - it is all about the individual teams and specific rivalries - and I am pretty sure I never met a Wisconsin fan in 15 years in the area. Detroit will be a neutral court. I agree. There's no semi-home court for the Badgers in Detroit. OK, then. Let's just say that it will be a neutral court if we both make it and that, given the press rankings of our respective opponents in the second round, we may very well have the harder time getting there (though I agree USC might be a tough out), making our position in the the region, in comparison to one in which we were the three and Wisconsin the two, worth little more than the right to wear home unis. That said, it is nice to have the lower number next to our name in the brackets. |
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Mar 17, 2008 2:50:23 GMT -5
I don't buy the semi home court aspect in regard to Wisconsin. Madison is 425 miles away from Detroit (DC is 525). As a former resident of Detroit I can testify that Big Ten loyalty is almost non-existent - it is all about the individual teams and specific rivalries - and I am pretty sure I never met a Wisconsin fan in 15 years in the area. Detroit will be a neutral court. Madison is alot easier drive to Detroit. It is all flat and the speed limit is 70 mph the majority of the way. The only roadbump is getting through Chicago. DC to Detroit takes alot longer. You either have to go through West Virginia or Pennsylvania (low speed limit, traffic enforcment) and alot of big city traffic (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toledo) Basically from the DC area you would have to fly, wheras anyone in Wisconsin could take a road trip. But tickets are alot more expensive from IAD - Det compared to Madison - Detroit. Also there are alot more UW alum in Michigan. Not many Georgetown alum are out there. Not to mention the fact that you are in the Heart of Big Ten country out in Michigan. So, yeah it is a semi-homecourt advantage even though on paper it may not look like it. |
|
|
|
Post by professorhoya on Mar 17, 2008 2:55:52 GMT -5
However having said that I think we match up quite well with Wisconsin. They don't really have the athletic rebounding shotblocking big men that could give us trouble, so Hibbert should have a field day.
It should be a tough game but we matchup welll with UW.
|
|
Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
|
Post by Locker on Mar 17, 2008 6:12:49 GMT -5
I don't really like our draw at all. Wisconsin is a good team; Gonzaga and Davidson aren't walkovers. Most importantly, USC is one of the teams I wanted no part of -- so much better than their seed. How the heck is Vandy a 4 seed and USC and 6? Southern Cal would be at least a five poiint favorite in that game. Anyone notice Duke got half a bracket with no big men in it? Their huge weakness and no one in their bracket can exploit it. 7 seeds aren't supposed to be walkovers (see 2006 Hoyas). We could have done better with the second round matchup and we could have done worse. Seems fair. I have no idea what to make of Wisconsin. The disparity between the computer models (love them) and the eyeball test (ugly) is huge for the Badgers. Hopefully Roy would take care of Butch the way he dominated Aaron Gray last year. And I agree USC is dangerous, but I'd rather face them than Wisconsin. I'm glad they are where they are. Or would you rather just pencil the Badgers in to Detroit? |
|
nychoya3
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,674
|
Post by nychoya3 on Mar 17, 2008 8:38:37 GMT -5
Just watching ESPN, seeing who people were picking. Both Bilas and Digger had us losing in the Elite Eight to Kansas. Actually, both had all four top seeds in the final four. Way to go out on a limb guys.
|
|
GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
|
Post by GUJook97 on Mar 17, 2008 8:52:01 GMT -5
I don't really like our draw at all. Wisconsin is a good team; Gonzaga and Davidson aren't walkovers. Most importantly, USC is one of the teams I wanted no part of -- so much better than their seed. How the heck is Vandy a 4 seed and USC and 6? Southern Cal would be at least a five poiint favorite in that game. Anyone notice Duke got half a bracket with no big men in it? Their huge weakness and no one in their bracket can exploit it. 7 seeds aren't supposed to be walkovers (see 2006 Hoyas). We could have done better with the second round matchup and we could have done worse. Seems fair. I have no idea what to make of Wisconsin. The disparity between the computer models (love them) and the eyeball test (ugly) is huge for the Badgers. Hopefully Roy would take care of Butch the way he dominated Aaron Gray last year. And I agree USC is dangerous, but I'd rather face them than Wisconsin. I'm glad they are where they are. Or would you rather just pencil the Badgers in to Detroit? I agree. I dont see who else you'd really expect other than Gonzaga or Davidson at 7 and 10. In fact, I was much more worried last year to play middle of the road major conference teams like BC or Texas Tech, who could bang us around. I think a lot of the teams in our half of the bracket are well-coached and disciplined, but those teams dont worry me. The teams that worry me are quick guard and pressing teams(Lville-like) and bruisers(Pitt-like). |
|
The Stig
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,844
|
Post by The Stig on Mar 17, 2008 9:14:24 GMT -5
7 seeds aren't supposed to be walkovers (see 2006 Hoyas). We could have done better with the second round matchup and we could have done worse. Seems fair. I have no idea what to make of Wisconsin. The disparity between the computer models (love them) and the eyeball test (ugly) is huge for the Badgers. Hopefully Roy would take care of Butch the way he dominated Aaron Gray last year. And I agree USC is dangerous, but I'd rather face them than Wisconsin. I'm glad they are where they are. Or would you rather just pencil the Badgers in to Detroit? I agree. I dont see who else you'd really expect other than Gonzaga or Davidson at 7 and 10. In fact, I was much more worried last year to play middle of the road major conference teams like BC or Texas Tech, who could bang us around. I think a lot of the teams in our half of the bracket are well-coached and disciplined, but those teams dont worry me. The teams that worry me are quick guard and pressing teams(Lville-like) and bruisers(Pitt-like). From what I recall neither BC nor Texas Tech were Top 25 teams last year. Both Gonzaga and Davidson are. As somebody from Wisconsin, I really don't see Detroit as any advantage to the Badgers. Wisconsin fans travel very well regardless of where they're playing. |
|
|
|
Post by jerseyshorehoya on Mar 17, 2008 9:24:03 GMT -5
One thing I didn't understand. On ESPN, Tom O' Connor clearly stated that Georgetown is playing in Raleigh instead of Duke because Georgetown had priority as the Selection Committee had them higher ranked then Duke. Since Georgetown couldn't play in DC, they had the next "choice" of venue, Raleigh being the closest.
If this is the case, and Georgetown is seeded higher than Duke, shouldn't Georgetown play a lower ranked #3 seed than Duke is playing?
Frankly, I think it is all about ticket allocation. They didn't want Duke and UNC in the same region and Duke is a big enough draw and close enough to DC.
His explanation doesn't seem to wash with respect to the Hoyas drawing Wisconsin and Duke getting Xavier.
|
|
|
|
Post by dajuan on Mar 17, 2008 9:56:13 GMT -5
One thing I didn't understand. On ESPN, Tom O' Connor clearly stated that Georgetown is playing in Raleigh instead of Duke because Georgetown had priority as the Selection Committee had them higher ranked then Duke. Since Georgetown couldn't play in DC, they had the next "choice" of venue, Raleigh being the closest. If this is the case, and Georgetown is seeded higher than Duke, shouldn't Georgetown play a lower ranked #3 seed than Duke is playing? Frankly, I think it is all about ticket allocation. They didn't want Duke and UNC in the same region and Duke is a big enough draw and close enough to DC. His explanation doesn't seem to wash with respect to the Hoyas drawing Wisconsin and Duke getting Xavier. It's tricky because when you get to 2 and 3 seeds, they're placed based on geographical location and based on the ranks of the other seeds 1-3. In this case, it would have been pretty ty of the selection committee to put Wisconsin as the 3 seed in the West region. There's a balancing act between geography and the teams' ranks within their seed. |
|
kchoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Enter your message here...
Posts: 9,934
|
Post by kchoya on Mar 17, 2008 10:39:14 GMT -5
According to ESPN 1988 Kansas = Manning and the miracles? I thought the 86-87 Hoyas = Reggie and the miracles? Growing up in KC, it was definitely Danny and the Miracles. I think KU's "miracles" probably had more of a national usage than GU's "miracles." |
|
|
|
Post by musiccityhoya on Mar 17, 2008 10:41:37 GMT -5
pitt in the final four...gtown over duke title game
|
|
idhoya
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,177
|
Post by idhoya on Mar 17, 2008 10:45:45 GMT -5
no way duke makes it.
|
|
royski
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,300
|
Post by royski on Mar 17, 2008 12:10:41 GMT -5
Duke in the TITLE game? They sure better not have to see UCLA or Stanford on the way there. Those bigs would eat them alive.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Mar 17, 2008 12:16:27 GMT -5
Let's not evaluate anything based upon the top 25 polls please. Those are about the most useless metric available.
By definition, though, isn't a 7 seed supposed to be a top 28 team? And the 10 seed is a top 40 team. You aren't supposed to get byes all the way through to the Elite 8. These games will not be easy--but considering who we might have drawn, I'm not entirely terrified.
|
|
|
|
Post by grokamok on Mar 17, 2008 12:24:34 GMT -5
One thing I didn't understand. On ESPN, Tom O' Connor clearly stated that Georgetown is playing in Raleigh instead of Duke because Georgetown had priority as the Selection Committee had them higher ranked then Duke. Since Georgetown couldn't play in DC, they had the next "choice" of venue, Raleigh being the closest. If this is the case, and Georgetown is seeded higher than Duke, shouldn't Georgetown play a lower ranked #3 seed than Duke is playing? Frankly, I think it is all about ticket allocation. They didn't want Duke and UNC in the same region and Duke is a big enough draw and close enough to DC. His explanation doesn't seem to wash with respect to the Hoyas drawing Wisconsin and Duke getting Xavier. It's tricky because when you get to 2 and 3 seeds, they're placed based on geographical location and based on the ranks of the other seeds 1-3. In this case, it would have been pretty Editedty of the selection committee to put Wisconsin as the 3 seed in the West region. There's a balancing act between geography and the teams' ranks within their seed. That and the fact that Wisconsin already played (and lost to) Duke this season. While a meeting in the sweet sixteen is not strictly prohibited, I think the committee tries to avoid likely matchups of teams that have already played during the season until the elite eight. |
|
hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,488
|
Post by hoyarooter on Mar 17, 2008 12:55:23 GMT -5
I'm happy to see us in a bracket with Wisconsin. On the other hand, I don't think we'll be seeing them. Assuming we get to Detroit (no guarantee, but I like our chances), I'll think we'll be seeing USC there, and that will be a very tough game. But whoever said a Sweet 16 game should be easy? USC's defense is legit. They played UCLA three times, and held them to under 40% shooting every time. That's not a fluke.
|
|
canissaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 524
|
Post by canissaxa on Mar 17, 2008 13:27:14 GMT -5
Here's a link to log5 analysis of the entire tournament. www.jfwiii.net/blog/?p=584Here's a link to a Monte Carlo simulation using Sagarin and Pomeroy numbers: dberri.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/an-instant-analysis-of-the-ncaa-tournament/Also has an interesting link to tradesports.com which appears to be some sort of trading floor for sports betting. Don't know much about UMBC other than the fact that we regularly beat up on them when I played tennis for GU years ago. I saw a bit of their game against Hartford. Did appear to be shooting awfully well, but the Hartford's defense wasn't too impressive. Don't know much about the 'zags or Davidson (and I doubt that Davidson's semi-home court advantage was factored in to the analysis above). I saw a bit of the 'zags against San Diego. They looked pretty decent, but didn't bring the fire they needed to beat a team that wanted it more in the conference tourney (sound familiar?). That said, they seemed well coached and kept their composure well even when behind. I imagine that they will play with a chip on their shoulder against Davidson given then many people are picking them as an upset victim. It also seems like they've got some size down low (#5 in effective height) and they rebound pretty well. Plus they get to the free throw line at a pretty good clip. The more I look at the numbers, the more I worry about Gonzaga more than Davidson (since we do pretty well when asked to shut down prolific guards and somewhat unbalanced attacks). Another interesting tidbit about Gonzaga: according to this thread (http://www.guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?t=9875), they traditionally play a lot of zone and play it well, but have been doing it less this year. On the other side of the court, I think it is encouraging that Gonzaga had one of their worst offensive outings against Washington State, whose defense I believe has some resemblence to our own. If we get through the first weekend, I agree with many posters that Wisconsin appears to be less of a match up issue for us than some other possibilities, but at the same time , I seriously respect Wisconsin and think they should be a 2 seed ahead of Duke without question. I would rather play Wisconsin than Louisville (obviously, the committee wouldn't do that) or Stanford or Clemson or Tennessee, although I think Wisconsin is a better team than all of them (except perhaps Tennessee). I would also rather play Duke than Wisconsin for what that's worth. I think people that are picking USC over Wisconsin with a lot of assurance are somewhat surprising--Pomeroy doesn't even favor them in the first round against K-State! I would rather play any of the 1 seeds other than KU (except North Carolina and that's only because of the home court advantage), but I'm hoping Kansas's tourney jinx continues and somehow we won't have to. I suppose that Memphis is a worse matchup for us, but KU can flat out play. It'll be a fun game to watch if we both get that far. |
|
|
|
Post by juanjohnhoya on Mar 17, 2008 16:58:57 GMT -5
"pitt in the final four...gtown over duke title game"
Not sure about Pitt being anywhere NEAR the final four. I keep getting the sensation that Pitt is Syracuse from two years ago, who blew their wad in the BET and had nothing left for the big dance.
|
|
Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,912
|
Post by Big Dog on Mar 17, 2008 17:09:51 GMT -5
"pitt in the final four...gtown over duke title game" Not sure about Pitt being anywhere NEAR the final four. I keep getting the sensation that Pitt is Syracuse from two years ago, who blew their wad in the BET and had nothing left for the big dance. Reason enough to pause over picking either Pitt or Georgia to do much in the NCAAs |
|
