sead43
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Post by sead43 on Mar 17, 2008 17:18:22 GMT -5
I don't buy the semi home court aspect in regard to Wisconsin. Madison is 425 miles away from Detroit (DC is 525). As a former resident of Detroit I can testify that Big Ten loyalty is almost non-existent - it is all about the individual teams and specific rivalries - and I am pretty sure I never met a Wisconsin fan in 15 years in the area. Detroit will be a neutral court. Madison is alot easier drive to Detroit. It is all flat and the speed limit is 70 mph the majority of the way. The only roadbump is getting through Chicago. DC to Detroit takes alot longer. You either have to go through West Virginia or Pennsylvania (low speed limit, traffic enforcment) and alot of big city traffic (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toledo) Basically from the DC area you would have to fly, wheras anyone in Wisconsin could take a road trip. But tickets are alot more expensive from IAD - Det compared to Madison - Detroit. Also there are alot more UW alum in Michigan. Not many Georgetown alum are out there. Not to mention the fact that you are in the Heart of Big Ten country out in Michigan. So, yeah it is a semi-homecourt advantage even though on paper it may not look like it. I don't know about having to fly from DC to Detroit. According to Mapquest, it's about a 8 1/2 hour drive. Compare that to the 10 hour drive to Atlanta, which plenty of people did last year, and it seems doable. |
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 17, 2008 17:42:25 GMT -5
detroit drive kinda sux. MD is easy and pretty scenic, but a bit rural...PA turnpike sucks for long stretches b/c there always seems to be construction and accidents, OH is easy and f[l]at and boring (kind of like their co-eds), mich is quick and relatively painless.
wiscy is a more well-known roadtrip since tons of big 10 fans do it every season btw AA and Madison.
Northwest owns detroit...the now defunct independence air used to fly into dulles for super cheap, but it is really NW and usairways now i think.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 17, 2008 20:26:27 GMT -5
Here's a link to log5 analysis of the entire tournament. www.jfwiii.net/blog/?p=584Kansas has a 37% chance of winning the tournament? Doesn't that seem just a tad high? |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Mar 17, 2008 20:26:31 GMT -5
Re: Pitt in the tourny- there is a reason they have always done well at MSG but relatively poorly in the NCAA, and it has to do with officiating. Pitt's brutal physical play is impressive and wins in the Big East, but take that away from them and start calling them for reaching and bulldozing their way to every ball and they will lose to a good team. You have to expect that out of three or four games (before San Antonio) they will meet some ACC/Pac 10 style officiating that will end their season.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 17, 2008 20:32:27 GMT -5
detroit drive kinda sux. MD is easy and pretty scenic, but a bit rural...PA turnpike sucks for long stretches b/c there always seems to be construction and accidents, OH is easy and f[l]at and boring (kind of like their co-eds), mich is quick and relatively painless. wiscy is a more well-known roadtrip since tons of big 10 fans do it every season btw AA and Madison. Northwest owns detroit...the now defunct independence air used to fly into dulles for super cheap, but it is really NW and usairways now i think. If you are driving then the best thing to do is avoid the PA turnpike all together. As long as it's not snowing, the Cumberland route through Western Maryland, West Virigina is toll free, high speed limit, no cops. Basically hop on Cumberland/68 right before Breezewood, PA, head west till you hit Morgantown and then go north to Washington, PA. Then you have the option of getting back on the PA turnpike or head into Wheeling, Ohio. |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Mar 17, 2008 20:33:27 GMT -5
Here's a link to log5 analysis of the entire tournament. www.jfwiii.net/blog/?p=584Kansas has a 37% chance of winning the tournament? Doesn't that seem just a tad high? Whoa- I don't do math nearly well enough to check his, but that looks crazy. |
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 17, 2008 20:37:10 GMT -5
I don't know about having to fly from DC to Detroit. According to Mapquest, it's about a 8 1/2 hour drive. Compare that to the 10 hour drive to Atlanta, which plenty of people did last year, and it seems doable. Mapquest is wrong on alot of things. It will probably tell you to take the PA turnpike, then you will get stuck on the two lane tollway and hit the logjam at Pittsburgh and then Cleveland and Toledo. If you can coordinate it to avoid rush hour then the cities aren't bad but Pittsburgh is always a bumper to bumper slow down for some reason. Driving South is an easy fast mindelss ride. You hardly hit any major cities/congestion, can go fast, and don't have to worry about cops. |
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royski
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Post by royski on Mar 17, 2008 20:38:08 GMT -5
Here's a link to log5 analysis of the entire tournament. www.jfwiii.net/blog/?p=584Kansas has a 37% chance of winning the tournament? Doesn't that seem just a tad high? Kansas has the #1 Pomeroy offense and the #1 Pomeroy defense. Unfortunately, we'll need to wait for log6 for them to incorporate the all-important Bill Self Choke Index. KU is clearly #1 as well in the BSCI. |
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Post by hoyasaxact on Mar 17, 2008 22:21:50 GMT -5
Digger just went way out on a limb: he chose Arkansas over Indiana as his upset alert in the East Region.
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Just Cos
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Post by Just Cos on Mar 17, 2008 23:00:59 GMT -5
Thompson Jr. on Dan Patrick show had some good insights.
- Can't believe the ACC received a 1 and 2 seed with only 4 teams getting in the tournament.
- Not sure how far G'town will go in the tournament due to more physical teams like Pitt giving them trouble.
- Jeff provided that physical element last year.
- Didn't appear to be a huge Love fan.
The rest was same old stuff.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 18, 2008 8:11:16 GMT -5
Thompson Jr. on Dan Patrick show had some good insights. - Can't believe the ACC received a 1 and 2 seed with only 4 teams getting in the tournament. Nice. Pops re-casting the ACC as a mid-major. I love it. ;D |
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Gold Hoya
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Post by Gold Hoya on Mar 18, 2008 9:45:28 GMT -5
Here's a link to log5 analysis of the entire tournament. www.jfwiii.net/blog/?p=584Kansas has a 37% chance of winning the tournament? Doesn't that seem just a tad high? Whoa- I don't do math nearly well enough to check his, but that looks crazy. Randomly, I know the guy who did the other projection that was linked above (direct link www.wagesofwins.com/NationalChamp.html) - I certainly trust his math, and he also has Kansas at 37% using KenPom ratings. Keep in mind Kansas has been #1 in Pomeroy most of the year and the quant models perceive Midwest as weaker than the East. In the quant models, GU is weaker than TN, thus the small advantage of Kansas over UNC is magnified by Kansas' greater chance of emerging from the Midwest (in a game against Wisconsin, not GU, according to the same models). |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 18, 2008 10:31:32 GMT -5
That latter posts shows the massive difference between Ken Pom and Sagarin -- Sagarin does not adjust for pace and so all the faster teams -- UNC, etc -- go up while the slower teams -- Wisconsin, Georgetown, go down.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 18, 2008 12:45:32 GMT -5
Well, this is all interesting, but it still doesn't explain in a way that my feeble mind can understand how Kansas's perceived advantage could be so enormous. If these metrics merely showed that Kansas was favored, I could accept that. But 37%? That's like saying that the rest of the field has less than a 2/1 edge over Kansas to produce a winner. We're not talking UCLA with Kareem here.
What was Pops' knock on Love? I would expect him to love Love (no pun intended). Because as we all know, All You Need Is Love (pun definitely intended).
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PDRHoya99
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Post by PDRHoya99 on Mar 18, 2008 13:22:49 GMT -5
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 18, 2008 15:07:47 GMT -5
Here's the answer on Kansas -- they are about as much of a lock to make the Elite Eight as anyone according to Pomeroy.
UNLV is ranked #53 -- that's not an 8 seed, which should be in the 29-32 range.
Kent State is ranked #66 -- that's not a 9 seed.
So Kansas is given a cakewalk to the Sweet Sixteen.
Vanderbilt is the most overrated #4 seed -- and most overrated in the tourney according to Pomeroy at #48, more fitting of an 11 or 12 seed than a 4.
Villanova is ranked in the 50s -- appropriate seed but not a threat, much like Siena.
Only Clemson is underseeded -- they should have been the 4 and a low four at that. But given how badly Vandy is overseeded by Pomeroy, it isn't offset.
So they get a cakewalk to the Sweet Sixteen, and there's a 39% chance they play a total joke of a team in the Sweet Sixteen (Vandy, Nova, Siena).
Cumulatively, under Pomeroy's system, KU has an 82% chance of making the Elite Eight.
Now, look at the other side of the Midwest. Pomeroy has Wisconsin as a 1 and Georgetown as a 2. That doesn't hurt Kansas much because they can only face one of us, though Wisconsin would be the best team a 1 would have to face. What's more important is the rest of our side.
USC is #20 -- underseeded.
K State is #15 -- vastly underseeded.
Gonzaga is #28 -- correctly seeded.
Davidson is #33, underseeded.
(UMBC/CS Fullerton are seeded fine).
The result is that GU (easiest 2, Wisconsin, should be a 1) have a fairly hard time reaching the Elite 8 relative to others. So while facing us is no cakewalk for Kansas, it's offset by the chance of K State or USC making it.
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The biggest single thing is Vandy, though. Basically, they are like an 11 or 12 seed in Pomeroy. Contrast that to UNC in the East, and Kansas has a better shot of making the Elite Eight than UNC the Sweet Sixteen (Pomeroy likes Indiana, which I don't anymore, Arkansas and Washington State a lot more than UNLV, Kent State and Vandy. Not a shocker).
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 18, 2008 19:36:15 GMT -5
Interesting. So I guess if they have an 82% chance of reaching the Elite 8, which is, I gather, a much higher likelihood than any other team has, then that accordingly skews their likelihood of winning the whole thing. If you buy into this (and I'm not saying it's illogical), then you should be betting on Kansas, because if you get, say, 4-1, that's damn good odds on a team with a 37% chance of winning it all.
The funny thing is that if we end up with a Final 4 of Kansas, UCLA, UNC and Texas, Kansas's likelihood of winning will be, I would think, way less than 37%. So their odds of winning when the field is complete may be far better than their odds of winning if we end up with a FF composed of top seeds.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 18, 2008 20:48:27 GMT -5
Rooter,
Yes. There's a good chance those other top seeds will get knocked off, increasing KU's chances of winning.
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bmartin
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Post by bmartin on Mar 18, 2008 21:18:45 GMT -5
Kansas' Pomeroy numbers are a mirage. They have some absurd home blowouts that skew their averages: 109-51 over Texas Tech; 85-49 over Nebraska; 85-47 over Eastern Washington; 86-53 over Yale; 87-46 over Northern Arizona; 88-51 over Ohio; 87-49 over Florida Atlantic; and so on.
They won home games by an average of more than 20 points. On the road, they were 8-3 and their offense was exceptional only three times: at BC, at Nebraska, at Colorado.
Kansas' advantage over Georgetown in defensive efficiency is entirely due to the big home blowouts. Kansas and Georgetown had roughly the same number of games with defensive efficiency worse than one point per possession (7 KU, 6 GU) and games with defensive efficiency between 90 and 100 (per 100 possessions) (10 KU, 12 GU). The difference is that KU had 9 games with defensive efficiency below 80, while Georgetown had 4.
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Post by mississippihoya on Mar 18, 2008 22:29:31 GMT -5
How much does level of competition impact the Pomeroy numbers? Our numbers are similar and all, but haven't we played tougher opponents than Kansas in general? Are they adjusted for this?
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