drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,386
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Post by drquigley on Mar 6, 2019 14:34:14 GMT -5
I just fear facing McDermott in the BET. Besides Wright, probably the best coach in the BE
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 6, 2019 15:15:34 GMT -5
We pretty much are lock to play Xavier or St. Johns or Creighton at this point, and Creighton is only likely if they go 2-0 while we go 0-2. I'm not sure what my pick would be given those choices as St. John's has had our number in this event lately and would be desperate if they lose again, Creighton has given us fits, and Xavier was the hottest team in the league going into tonight. While it may seem like the most illogical answer, I may lean towards Creighton, just because it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a season and we can't play much worse than we did against them last game. The "tough to beat a team 3 times" narrative just isn't true. This article ( coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/02/its-hard-to-beat-a-team-3-times/ ) is from a few years back but details that over 10 years the team who won the first 2 games wins the 3rd game 72% of the time. Creighton is an absolutely terrible match up for us and I'd prefer to play Xavier or SJU instead. If I had to pick between the 3, I'd choose Xavier. With that said, win tonight and avoid Wednesday. I would be interested in seeing the percentages split out between games where there is a sizeable point spread (e.g. a conference tourney game between a top seed and a low seed where the top seed is favored heavily) and games with small point spreads between 2 teams with comparable conference records. I suspect a pretty good portion of the 72% come from the former type of game.
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lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 606
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Post by lda05816 on Mar 6, 2019 15:35:20 GMT -5
The "tough to beat a team 3 times" narrative just isn't true. This article ( coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/02/its-hard-to-beat-a-team-3-times/ ) is from a few years back but details that over 10 years the team who won the first 2 games wins the 3rd game 72% of the time. Creighton is an absolutely terrible match up for us and I'd prefer to play Xavier or SJU instead. If I had to pick between the 3, I'd choose Xavier. With that said, win tonight and avoid Wednesday. I would be interested in seeing the percentages split out between games where there is a sizeable point spread (e.g. a conference tourney game between a top seed and a low seed where the top seed is favored heavily) and games with small point spreads between 2 teams with comparable conference records. I suspect a pretty good portion of the 72% come from the former type of game. I recently saw a fairly detailed chart on this topic but couldn’t remember where I saw it to include in my post. I would think you are correct. As it pertains to Creighton, I just think it’s a nightmare of a matchup for us and our chances to win in NYC aren’t bolstered because we lost the first 2 games.
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kettlehill
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,149
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Post by kettlehill on Mar 6, 2019 15:55:32 GMT -5
I remember way back when the Hoyas handled a very good Nova team twice- not so easily- then faced them a third time. The whole world thought the Hoyas would win easily. I was very worried-as were many other Hoya fans for sure mostly because of the “three times syndrome”- and was not all that surprised when Nova beat the Hoyas.......for the National Championship....
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,818
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Post by hoyazeke on Mar 6, 2019 16:21:08 GMT -5
I remember way back when the Hoyas handled a very good Nova team twice- not so easily- then faced them a third time. The whole world thought the Hoyas would win easily. I was very worried-as were many other Hoya fans for sure mostly because of the “three times syndrome”- and was not all that surprised when Nova beat the Hoyas.......for the National Championship.... For those of you guys that truly old enough to remember this game, did Nova use the same strategy of shooting every 2-3mins in the regular season?
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prhoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 23,358
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Post by prhoya on Mar 6, 2019 16:28:08 GMT -5
I remember way back when the Hoyas handled a very good Nova team twice- not so easily- then faced them a third time. The whole world thought the Hoyas would win easily. I was very worried-as were many other Hoya fans for sure mostly because of the “three times syndrome”- and was not all that surprised when Nova beat the Hoyas.......for the National Championship.... For those of you guys that truly old enough to remember this game, did Nova use the same strategy of shooting every 2-3mins in the regular season? I watched it and they used the strategy of not missing a shot no matter how difficult.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 6, 2019 16:34:34 GMT -5
I would be interested in seeing the percentages split out between games where there is a sizeable point spread (e.g. a conference tourney game between a top seed and a low seed where the top seed is favored heavily) and games with small point spreads between 2 teams with comparable conference records. I suspect a pretty good portion of the 72% come from the former type of game. I recently saw a fairly detailed chart on this topic but couldn’t remember where I saw it to include in my post. I would think you are correct. As it pertains to Creighton, I just think it’s a nightmare of a matchup for us and our chances to win in NYC aren’t bolstered because we lost the first 2 games. I agree about Creighton; they have handled us in large part because of their ability to shoot the 3, and defending the 3 is a weakness of ours, so not sure the familiarity of a 3rd meeting will help us much.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 6, 2019 16:47:34 GMT -5
I recently saw a fairly detailed chart on this topic but couldn’t remember where I saw it to include in my post. I would think you are correct. As it pertains to Creighton, I just think it’s a nightmare of a matchup for us and our chances to win in NYC aren’t bolstered because we lost the first 2 games. I agree about Creighton; they have handled us in large part because of their ability to shoot the 3, and defending the 3 is a weakness of ours, so not sure the familiarity of a 3rd meeting will help us much. I instinctively would have agreed with you, but if you check my 3PFG/Turnover thread, the Hoyas have the #1 3PFG% defense (33.4%) in conference through 16 games. And we have the 3rd best 3PFG% offense (36.8%). I'd have to double check, but I believe this means we have the best (or close to the best) 3PFG% differential statistic in the league when you net the two (+3.4%). We're actually quite good in Big East competition at guarding the 3PFG line, statistically.
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seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
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Post by seaweed on Mar 6, 2019 17:09:59 GMT -5
For those of you guys that truly old enough to remember this game, did Nova use the same strategy of shooting every 2-3mins in the regular season? I watched it and they used the strategy of not missing a shot no matter how difficult. As I recall, Pinckney had scored some low grade, heavily cut stuff in the first two games but found the pharma-grade for the finals. But my memory is biased
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NCHoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,927
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 6, 2019 17:16:38 GMT -5
Creighton moves the ball on offense better than any other team in the Big East while our defense is easily confused into bad positioning by good ball movement. Therefore, Creighton is our nemesis this season. I would very much like to avoid them in the BET. That said, I still want to avoid Wednesday, so let's worry about it later. Beat Depaul!
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 6, 2019 19:28:59 GMT -5
I agree about Creighton; they have handled us in large part because of their ability to shoot the 3, and defending the 3 is a weakness of ours, so not sure the familiarity of a 3rd meeting will help us much. I instinctively would have agreed with you, but if you check my 3PFG/Turnover thread, the Hoyas have the #1 3PFG% defense (33.4%) in conference through 16 games. And we have the 3rd best 3PFG% offense (36.8%). I'd have to double check, but I believe this means we have the best (or close to the best) 3PFG% differential statistic in the league when you net the two (+3.4%). We're actually quite good in Big East competition at guarding the 3PFG line, statistically. Thanks for the stats - I guess I just have a hallucinatory montage of Creighton 3's running on an endless loop through my subconscious!
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aristides
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 342
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Post by aristides on Mar 6, 2019 19:46:04 GMT -5
I think it’s more that they speed the Hoyas up beyond their comfort level and then capitalize on the ensuing mistakes.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,224
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 6, 2019 20:06:05 GMT -5
If Creighton wins out, Xavier beats St. John's and we lose both games, and we end up tied at 8-10 with St. John's, Seton Hall and Butler, where would we end up in the seeding? What about if it's just us, St. John's and Butler?
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Post by hoyaatheart55 on Mar 6, 2019 20:25:58 GMT -5
Holy cow Myles Powell.
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Post by wponds on Mar 6, 2019 20:32:39 GMT -5
Marquette had 22 turnovers in loss to Creighton, 18 tonight. Lets hope they don't fix it by Saturday
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,352
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 6, 2019 20:32:58 GMT -5
Couldn’t be a worse scenario other than a loss for us having Seton Hall win. Makes Marquette desperate, gives Nova the title, bumps Seton Hall ahead of us.
Outscored by 20 in the last 9 mins.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,352
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 6, 2019 20:51:03 GMT -5
The way our conference is beating up on each other its doing no one any favors in terms of metrics. Yet conversely in the Big 12 every team went into the conference schedule highly rated, and therefore every win or loss is a quality one and the rankings don't change; it's a circular reference.
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,352
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 7, 2019 9:02:36 GMT -5
If we beat MU they’d prob fall out of the rankings. Can’t recall a time the conference would be so poorly represented in the Top 25.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2019 9:28:41 GMT -5
it is also announced that Georgetown, Duke, Texas, and Cal will all host a pair of regional round games on campus.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 11, 2019 9:32:13 GMT -5
Fantastic news. Only question is whether we will be #1 going into the tourney or after?
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