NCAA Why this year will be different

[Deleted]

Hi guys
After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better.
What do you guys think?

[HometownHoya]

Not sure how long we will make it in any single elimination tournament.

I do agree that the guy look fresher and the longer rotation has paid dividends. Additionally the depth we have is valuable depth. If Tre is on the bottom of our rotation we are in good hands. Obviously it isn't true with his play recently compared to White and even LJ but we know those two can turn it on too.

We still have a ton of potential and things seem to be clicking. Our seniors are doing what they need to/can and if the freshman start stepping up this can be a dangerous team. Then again, this has been an up and down season and in post season time, one down game and you're done.

[njhoya78]

I would have liked to have seen a little more consistency from the freshmen by this part of the season, especially heading into the Big East tourney. That being written, it seems that at least one of the freshmen has stepped up and played extremely well (even better than could have been hoped) in each game this season. Yesterday it was Tre Campbell; I doubt that any of us believed that he would handle the unexpected start in DSR's absence as well as he did.

If we can get two freshmen stepping up in each game, we will be a handful for almost any other team.

[GIGAFAN99]

I think we have done ourselves a disservice in the past by not having a low-post presence, shortening our rotation, and not killing sacred cows (like starting Lubick no matter what).

Check, check, and check this year. I don't know if we'll do better in the tournament this year but I have zero complaints about the position JTIII has put us in to succeed.

[bamahoya11]

I don't think we will know if we have fixed our NCAA tournament woes until about fifteen minutes into the first half of the first game.  If I were to sum up our problem these past few years it would be that we have failed to respond to runs by our opponent.   A smaller, beatable opponent will go on a 10-0 or 12-2 run and take the lead and our whole game seems to fall apart.   Players get nervous and start trying to do too much on both ends, and the game slips out of reach.   Hard to know if that is angst from the coaches, the players on that team, or both.  It's not yet clear to me if we have that instinct where we respond calmly and take the game back from our opponent, and nothing we see between now and then will answer that question for me.

There are reasons for optimism.   DSR is playing at a high level right now, and, if healthy he could put on a big show for the whole nation this March.   He is the type of player who can really carry us, but we need probably Isaac to step up as well.   Although our freshmen have hit a wall, and that concerns me, I do think Isaac continues to perform well overall and LJ has started to make small strides again I think.  He made several positive plays against Seton Hall.   Plus, I think our young guys will benefit from playing new opponents that haven't been scheming us for months.   Overall though I am happy with the team at this point.   I hope they can get some confidence in New York this week and win a couple in the BET.

I am still concerned about three point defense; that does leave us vulnerable to a potential 12 seed matchup if we end up on the 5 line.   Overall, though, we have done a decent job taking care of business in the regular season, and I am making a point to enjoy these next two weeks now instead of being the bundle of nerves I was two years ago (at least for now).

[Churchwell]

This team seems built to do well in the NCAA tournament...deep, able to play multiple styles, solid defense and rebounding, upperclassmen leadership, points that can come from surprising places which makes the Hoyas tough to prepare for. BUT...have they really strung together more than 2 great performances in a row this season? I'd like to think this is because the BE is just that good, but I worry that it's false hope. To me, getting to the Sweet Sixteen and putting up a dog fight against a top seed in that game would be a huge success. Beyond that is pure gravy.

[JB5]

Mar 8, 2015 10:29:51 GMT -5 @jerrylh said:

Hi guys
After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better.
What do you guys think?

From your keyboard to God's inbox.

[professorhoya]

Mar 8, 2015 10:29:51 GMT -5 @jerrylh said:

Hi guys
After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better.
What do you guys think?

Why jinx the team like that. If they lose it will just lead to you melting down on the board.

There are so many variables in the NCAA tournament. Yes, part of it is the makeup of our team but it also depends on whether we face a team that is a bad matchup (like Xavier which can take away Josh Smith with Uber Stainbrook), whether key players get in foul trouble or injured, or whether you face a hot unknown player like Seth Curry who goes on to become one of the best players in the NBA.

[sleepy]

Every year was different than the year previous in the tournament. Good defensive teams, great offensive teams, bad defensive teams, bad offensive teams, big teams, small teams, old teams, young teams. We've tried almost every combo out there. You can say this year is different, but all of those other years were different too. Maybe we will actually have a solid tournament appearance this year or maybe we can just add another few differences to the list of changes we've made this year. I just don't think there is any reason to be any more confident in this team than in the ones that came before them, frankly there is plenty of reason to be less confident.

[Big Dog]

The prior performances have absolutely no predictive power about what will happen this time out. The seeding, opponent caliber and style, and personnel will all be different. There is not and has never been any common thread running through these games indicative of the problem--something that was debunked starting with the silly Tom Boswell column on the matter a couple of years ago. This team is not as good as the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, or 2013 Hoyas teams if you put any stock in KenPom's ratings, but that does not mean it can't get lucky or play well at the right time. An appropriate expectation is a competitive first round game that we hopefully win as a slight favorite, followed by a dogfight in which we will be underdogs.

There is no need to go back over all of the prior history that has nothing to do with this team.

[FrazierFanatic]

If we play well we will win. If we don't, we won't. We have not played consistently well so far. But each game is its own challenge, and we have the ability to play well in each game. That is all it takes.

[sleepy]

Mar 8, 2015 21:47:43 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

The prior performances have absolutely no predictive power about what will happen this time out. The seeding, opponent caliber and style, and personnel will all be different. There is not and has never been any common thread running through these games indicative of the problem--something that was debunked starting with the silly Tom Boswell column on the matter a couple of years ago. This team is not as good as the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, or 2013 Hoyas teams if you put any stock in KenPom's ratings, but that does not mean it can't get lucky or play well at the right time. An appropriate expectation is a competitive first round game that we hopefully win as a slight favorite, followed by a dogfight in which we will be underdogs.

There is no need to go back over all of the prior history that has nothing to do with this team.

But it does have to do with the program. And while they don't have any predictive power, they also don't inspire confidence or much hope. I'm not a III critic but if he couldn't get teams that were much better than this one out of the first weekend, why should we have any hope he can get over the hump with this one?

[drquigley]

Defense, especially defending the 3, is key and I'm still not comfortable with ours. I posted on another thread how bad our 2-3 zone looked yesterday. Way too many easy baskets underneath and way too many shooters open on the wings. We've won a few games this year when those shooters missed open 3s. But in a one and done tourney we will probably find (as we always do) a team that gets ridiculously hot. By this point in the season I thought our D would be much better. Now I know you can find stats that say we are ...in the country in defense but other than the Nova game I haven't been impressed. But the personnel is there and maybe we can dial it up in the Garden and in the dance.

[Big Dog]

Mar 8, 2015 22:01:26 GMT -5 sleepy said:

Mar 8, 2015 21:47:43 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

The prior performances have absolutely no predictive power about what will happen this time out. The seeding, opponent caliber and style, and personnel will all be different. There is not and has never been any common thread running through these games indicative of the problem--something that was debunked starting with the silly Tom Boswell column on the matter a couple of years ago. This team is not as good as the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, or 2013 Hoyas teams if you put any stock in KenPom's ratings, but that does not mean it can't get lucky or play well at the right time. An appropriate expectation is a competitive first round game that we hopefully win as a slight favorite, followed by a dogfight in which we will be underdogs.

There is no need to go back over all of the prior history that has nothing to do with this team.

But it does have to do with the program. And while they don't have any predictive power, they also don't inspire confidence or much hope. I'm not a III critic but if he couldn't get teams that were much better than this one out of the first weekend, why should we have any hope he can get over the hump with this one?

It has to do with the emotional status of fans and with uninformed, lazy media narratives. None of these players care that Greg Monroe lost to Ohio or Roy Hibbert lost to Davidson.

III is a good basketball coach. We have like 300 basketball games of evidence of that. Only an idiot would weigh 5 random games over all of the rest of that. I understand media narratives have never worked that way and emotionally only the end matters--that's sports--but the rational thinker knows that III doesnt somehow magically lose his ability to win come tournament time. Eventually the right team will get the right matchup and play well at the right time. I hope it is this year. I would rather be going into battle with the 2008 or 2010 or 2012 or 2013 rosters, but this is a competent team that isn't going to lose to teams--only eventually to another good one. I think that can be later rather than sooner, but I don't have any control over it so I am not going to agonize about it right now. I am, however, going to bask for the next 8-11 days in being relevant and in the tourney after missing it last year.

[beenaround]

Mar 8, 2015 11:22:12 GMT -5 bamahoya11 said:

I don't think we will know if we have fixed our NCAA tournament woes until about fifteen minutes into the first half of the first game.  If I were to sum up our problem these past few years it would be that we have failed to respond to runs by our opponent.   A smaller, beatable opponent will go on a 10-0 or 12-2 run and take the lead and our whole game seems to fall apart.   Players get nervous and start trying to do too much on both ends, and the game slips out of reach.   Hard to know if that is angst from the coaches, the players on that team, or both.  It's not yet clear to me if we have that instinct where we respond calmly and take the game back from our opponent, and nothing we see between now and then will answer that question for me.

There are reasons for optimism.   DSR is playing at a high level right now, and, if healthy he could put on a big show for the whole nation this March.   He is the type of player who can really carry us, but we need probably Isaac to step up as well.   Although our freshmen have hit a wall, and that concerns me, I do think Isaac continues to perform well overall and LJ has started to make small strides again I think.  He made several positive plays against Seton Hall.   Plus, I think our young guys will benefit from playing new opponents that haven't been scheming us for months.   Overall though I am happy with the team at this point.   I hope they can get some confidence in New York this week and win a couple in the BET.

I am still concerned about three point defense; that does leave us vulnerable to a potential 12 seed matchup if we end up on the 5 line.   Overall, though, we have done a decent job taking care of business in the regular season, and I am making a point to enjoy these next two weeks now instead of being the bundle of nerves I was two years ago (at least for now).

Agree completely regarding the NCAA tournament. Well stated. I really think Copeland is going to have to step up. I think the past couple of games, the opposition has specifically gameplanned for him on defense, where earlier in the year, they did not. He will have to adjust to closer defensive scrutiny. Tre could also be a big help, with his quickness in the tournament, especially against quick, undersized pg's we see from low seeds.

[sleepy]

Mar 8, 2015 22:26:06 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

Mar 8, 2015 22:01:26 GMT -5 sleepy said:

But it does have to do with the program. And while they don't have any predictive power, they also don't inspire confidence or much hope. I'm not a III critic but if he couldn't get teams that were much better than this one out of the first weekend, why should we have any hope he can get over the hump with this one?

It has to do with the emotional status of fans and with uninformed, lazy media narratives. None of these players care that Greg Monroe lost to Ohio or Roy Hibbert lost to Davidson.

III is a good basketball coach. We have like 300 basketball games of evidence of that. Only an idiot would weigh 5 random games over all of the rest of that. I understand media narratives have never worked that way and emotionally only the end matters--that's sports--but the rational thinker knows that III doesnt somehow magically lose his ability to win come tournament time. Eventually the right team will get the right matchup and play well at the right time. I hope it is this year. I would rather be going into battle with the 2008 or 2010 or 2012 or 2013 rosters, but this is a competent team that isn't going to lose to Edited teams--only eventually to another good one. I think that can be later rather than sooner, but I don't have any control over it so I am not going to agonize about it right now. I am, however, going to bask for the next 8-11 days in being relevant and in the tourney after missing it last year.

To be completely honest, I agree with you 100% 95% of the time. Of course all those tournament games are unrelated, each with it's own story and cause and are small sample sizes with a combination of bad luck and poor execution on our part.

However, the other 5% of the time I can't help but wonder that there has to be some sort of link or cause of them all. I mean, it's not simply that we lose these games, we generally get completely blown out and dominated the lower seeded the team we are playing is. III is obviously a great coach, but maybe coaching during the tournament is a different beast that he is incapable of for some reason after 2007. In these moments I just think how unlikely it is that we could have 3 similar and terrible blow out losses in the first round to high seeds without there being a common link.

And then I remember having to play Seth Curry in North Carolina, Chris Wrights broken hand, Austin Freeman's diabetes diagnosis and I go back to the 95%.


All that being said,I don't think we are doing anything in this tournament because we leave 3 point shooters wide open in the corner 100% of the time. Our 3 point defense, despite the numbers, and propensity to turn it over and foul make us very likely to be "upset". At this point though, if we aren't going to win I'd like to see us try to out do the FGCU performance ( we set a pretty high bar with that one) rather than go out with a whimper like the NC State game. We have the reputation already, might as well live up to it and go out with a bang. Plus it always makes for entertaining offseason reading and we can add it to our other tournament scars. I don't think we will be seeded high enough, though I guess you should never count out the Hoyas ability to crown the new Cinderella. Where there is a will there is a way.

I'll be cheering hard for them through it all though. I really do like these guys and think they aren't currently overrated for once, which will help keep expectations in check. Hopefully they'll get a little lucky.

[Filo]

Mar 8, 2015 23:39:02 GMT -5 sleepy said:

Mar 8, 2015 22:26:06 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

It has to do with the emotional status of fans and with uninformed, lazy media narratives. None of these players care that Greg Monroe lost to Ohio or Roy Hibbert lost to Davidson.

III is a good basketball coach. We have like 300 basketball games of evidence of that. Only an idiot would weigh 5 random games over all of the rest of that. I understand media narratives have never worked that way and emotionally only the end matters--that's sports--but the rational thinker knows that III doesnt somehow magically lose his ability to win come tournament time. Eventually the right team will get the right matchup and play well at the right time. I hope it is this year. I would rather be going into battle with the 2008 or 2010 or 2012 or 2013 rosters, but this is a competent team that isn't going to lose to Edited teams--only eventually to another good one. I think that can be later rather than sooner, but I don't have any control over it so I am not going to agonize about it right now. I am, however, going to bask for the next 8-11 days in being relevant and in the tourney after missing it last year.

To be completely honest, I agree with you 100% 95% of the time. Of course all those tournament games are unrelated, each with it's own story and cause and are small sample sizes with a combination of bad luck and poor execution on our part.

However, the other 5% of the time I can't help but wonder that there has to be some sort of link or cause of them all. I mean, it's not simply that we lose these games, we generally get completely blown out and dominated the lower seeded the team we are playing is. III is obviously a great coach, but maybe coaching during the tournament is a different beast that he is incapable of for some reason after 2007. In these moments I just think how unlikely it is that we could have 3 similar and terrible blow out losses in the first round to high seeds without there being a common link.

And then I remember having to play Seth Curry in North Carolina, Chris Wrights broken hand, Austin Freeman's diabetes diagnosis and I go back to the 95%.


All that being said,I don't think we are doing anything in this tournament because we leave 3 point shooters wide open in the corner 100% of the time. Our 3 point defense, despite the numbers, and propensity to turn it over and foul make us very likely to be "upset". At this point though, if we aren't going to win I'd like to see us try to out do the FGCU performance ( we set a pretty high bar with that one) rather than go out with a whimper like the NC State game. We have the reputation already, might as well live up to it and go out with a bang. Plus it always makes for entertaining offseason reading and we can add it to our other tournament scars. I don't think we will be seeded high enough, though I guess you should never count out the Hoyas ability to crown the new Cinderella. Where there is a will there is a way.

I'll be cheering hard for them through it all though. I really do like these guys and think they aren't currently overrated for once, which will help keep expectations in check. Hopefully they'll get a little lucky.

Wow. LOL. I am as scarred as the next guy from the recent NCAA performance. Hell, I suffered through FGCU with my kids in tow. That was an awful awful awful experience. But even I am not that negative. Yikes.

[Nevada Hoya]

Mar 8, 2015 21:47:43 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

The prior performances have absolutely no predictive power about what will happen this time out.

Big Dog, you a market analyst?

[Highsmith]

I think a big difference between this year and past years is definitely the quality of depth. While in the past, as Big Dog pointed out, we have had better teams according to KenPom, we have had a much smaller margin of error. The guys we put out there were great, except when they weren't. And when they weren't, we had nothing else to go to. Otto was fantastic, but if he was off.....who could come in to replace him? Same with Markel. Same with many of the top guys of those teams mentioned earlier. This year we have options that can come in and lots of different looks we can use when our main options are struggling. I'm not sure that can be measured with KenPom or any other metric other than the fact that we didn't lose to any sub 50RPI teams this year. When we got beat, it was by a good team.....often in their place. Who knows what the matchups will be or how our guys will respond, but we've seen this team win with many different guys coming up big and it's been a long time since we could say that. Hopefully that is the difference this year.

[MCIGuy]

I'm sorry I still can't be bullish on this team. Not because the talent isn't there. Its because the team appears to lack any killer instincts. The losses to Providence and Xavier at home when the team appeared to be on the upswing was bad enough, but the defeat at the hands of St. John's was what really an even more telling indicator. Don't get me wrong. Losing to St. John's at MSG was in of itself no disgrace. I could accept such a loss, but it was the way in which the Hoyas lost. St. John's was aggressive and landed a few tough blows early on and in typical fashion of the III era, the Hoyas weren't able to counter and pretty much folded. This has been a common method to beat III's Hoyas: get on them early and the victory is pretty much guaranteed. The Hoyas never truly caught up after the first official timeout; soon after that they were down double digits and never threatened. I could have come away feeling better about the team if the Hoyas had kept it close, perhaps even taken the lead back, only to fall in the end. Instead it was a quick, lame death. Even worse it looked that despite having an entire week off to prepare for the Johnnies, there was no gameplan. Certainly there was no passion that could be seen from the team. Once the Hoyas lost that game in that manner I told myself to not put too much hope in the team making it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.


Plus there are other signs that don't bode well:

-The team has failed to come up with a way of taking advantage of Josh Smith on offense. Opposing defenses dictate to the Hoyas how many touches the Hoyas get. The Hoya players get frustrated and then stop trying. Then again III has been on the hilltop about ten years and none of his teams have ever been really good at feeding the post.

-LJ Peak has shown little to no progression in the second half of this season and thus his ability to be an important threat as a scorer has been diminished.

-Paul White has had an even bigger dropoff as the season went on and now seems too hesitant to do much of anything. Again where is the progression?

-Copeland's coming-out-party was great and looked to be enough to somewhat make up for Paul White's slump (and maybe even Peak') but as of the last couple of weeks Copeland hasn't really been all that much of a factor on the court either. Seeing Tre Campbell raise his level has helped pick up the slack to some extent but it would be so much better if his fellow frosh look as if they were firing on all cylinders too.

DSR has been fantastic, Jabril is playing his best ball ever, Bowen is reliable when needed and when used and Hopkins has had a stretch of being , at the very least, solid. But this team isn't going anywhere IMO unless III can get Josh and the freshmen going. As of right now I don't see signs f this that happening. Of course I hope I'm wrong.