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Post by HometownHoya on Mar 12, 2015 20:23:21 GMT -5
I'm sorry I still can't be bullish on this team. Not because the talent isn't there. Its because the team appears to lack any killer instincts. The losses to Providence and Xavier at home when the team appeared to be on the upswing was bad enough, but the defeat at the hands of St. John's was what really an even more telling indicator. Don't get me wrong. Losing to St. John's at MSG was in of itself no disgrace. I could accept such a loss, but it was the way in which the Hoyas lost. St. John's was aggressive and landed a few tough blows early on and in typical fashion of the III era, the Hoyas weren't able to counter and pretty much folded. This has been a common method to beat III's Hoyas: get on them early and the victory is pretty much guaranteed. The Hoyas never truly caught up after the first official timeout; soon after that they were down double digits and never threatened. I could have come away feeling better about the team if the Hoyas had kept it close, perhaps even taken the lead back, only to fall in the end. Instead it was a quick, lame death. Even worse it looked that despite having an entire week off to prepare for the Johnnies, there was no gameplan. Certainly there was no passion that could be seen from the team. Once the Hoyas lost that game in that manner I told myself to not put too much hope in the team making it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Plus there are other signs that don't bode well: -The team has failed to come up with a way of taking advantage of Josh Smith on offense. Opposing defenses dictate to the Hoyas how many touches the Hoyas get. The Hoya players get frustrated and then stop trying. Then again III has been on the hilltop about ten years and none of his teams have ever been really good at feeding the post. -LJ Peak has shown little to no progression in the second half of this season and thus his ability to be an important threat as a scorer has been diminished. -Paul White has had an even bigger dropoff as the season went on and now seems too hesitant to do much of anything. Again where is the progression? -Copeland's coming-out-party was great and looked to be enough to somewhat make up for Paul White's slump (and maybe even Peak') but as of the last couple of weeks Copeland hasn't really been all that much of a factor on the court either. Seeing Tre Campbell raise his level has helped pick up the slack to some extent but it would be so much better if his fellow frosh look as if they were firing on all cylinders too. DSR has been fantastic, Jabril is playing his best ball ever, Bowen is reliable when needed and when used and Hopkins has had a stretch of being , at the very least, solid. But this team isn't going anywhere IMO unless III can get Josh and the freshmen going. As of right now I don't see signs f this that happening. Of course I hope I'm wrong. Does this win help dispel some of your primary concerns? I agree about the freshman, we need them to step up if we want to make any noise. I'm surprised we didn't see much Bowen in the second, I didn't see him make too many mistakes in the 1st.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 12, 2015 20:31:42 GMT -5
Aaron flew by Chatham as the shot clock wound down in the second half, let him step by for an open 2, then let a big guy poke it away from behind on the start of a break. Just did not have it under control this time. Hit the delete button, we will need all hands tomorrow.
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Mar 12, 2015 20:33:44 GMT -5
I'm sorry I still can't be bullish on this team. Not because the talent isn't there. Its because the team appears to lack any killer instincts. The losses to Providence and Xavier at home when the team appeared to be on the upswing was bad enough, but the defeat at the hands of St. John's was what really an even more telling indicator. Don't get me wrong. Losing to St. John's at MSG was in of itself no disgrace. I could accept such a loss, but it was the way in which the Hoyas lost. St. John's was aggressive and landed a few tough blows early on and in typical fashion of the III era, the Hoyas weren't able to counter and pretty much folded. This has been a common method to beat III's Hoyas: get on them early and the victory is pretty much guaranteed. The Hoyas never truly caught up after the first official timeout; soon after that they were down double digits and never threatened. I could have come away feeling better about the team if the Hoyas had kept it close, perhaps even taken the lead back, only to fall in the end. Instead it was a quick, lame death. Even worse it looked that despite having an entire week off to prepare for the Johnnies, there was no gameplan. Certainly there was no passion that could be seen from the team. Once the Hoyas lost that game in that manner I told myself to not put too much hope in the team making it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Plus there are other signs that don't bode well: -The team has failed to come up with a way of taking advantage of Josh Smith on offense. Opposing defenses dictate to the Hoyas how many touches the Hoyas get. The Hoya players get frustrated and then stop trying. Then again III has been on the hilltop about ten years and none of his teams have ever been really good at feeding the post. -LJ Peak has shown little to no progression in the second half of this season and thus his ability to be an important threat as a scorer has been diminished. -Paul White has had an even bigger dropoff as the season went on and now seems too hesitant to do much of anything. Again where is the progression? -Copeland's coming-out-party was great and looked to be enough to somewhat make up for Paul White's slump (and maybe even Peak') but as of the last couple of weeks Copeland hasn't really been all that much of a factor on the court either. Seeing Tre Campbell raise his level has helped pick up the slack to some extent but it would be so much better if his fellow frosh look as if they were firing on all cylinders too. DSR has been fantastic, Jabril is playing his best ball ever, Bowen is reliable when needed and when used and Hopkins has had a stretch of being , at the very least, solid. But this team isn't going anywhere IMO unless III can get Josh and the freshmen going. As of right now I don't see signs f this that happening. Of course I hope I'm wrong. Does this win help dispel some of your primary concerns? I agree about the freshman, we need them to step up if we want to make any noise. I'm surprised we didn't see much Bowen in the second, I didn't see him make too many mistakes in the 1st. He only gave away a 3, caused 2 Hoya turnovers and killed 2 Hoya fast breaks in his limited time out there. Pretty impressive.
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MCIGuy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Anyone here? What am I supposed to update?
Posts: 9,427
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Post by MCIGuy on Mar 12, 2015 23:08:35 GMT -5
Does this win help dispel some of your primary concerns? Nope, just more of the same. Play sluggish against an inferior team and escape with a victory.
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aristides
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 342
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Post by aristides on Mar 13, 2015 5:32:44 GMT -5
Reluctantly, I have to agree. Someone needs to check the fuse box on Copeland. Tre has been a terrific boost of energy but Copeland brings so much to the table when he is playing well. He will be needed to make a deep run.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2015 5:50:43 GMT -5
They can't all be pretty. Was Arkansas in 2001, Northern Iowa in 2006, BC or Vandy in 2007, Xavier or Weber State in 1995? While we're at it, SMU in 84?
It's March! Creighton is a perfect March team. Good but not great (83 Pomeroy) but playing good basketball right now. You have to grind these out and you need an identity to fall back on if you're not playing well. The Hoyas' identity is break your back with Josh and break your heart with DSR. Oh and let's not forget lockdown defense. That's what I want to see against lesser teams.
Perfect 2nd round NCAA practice tonight versus Xavier. Let's see if they can do it again.
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,818
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Post by hoyazeke on Mar 13, 2015 7:28:46 GMT -5
Does this win help dispel some of your primary concerns? Nope, just more of the same. Play sluggish against an inferior team and escape with a victory. mci, it's not the same for any of our recent teams. The teams that we all cringe when reflecting back would have gone down 10-12 and then made one last run before losing by 5-8pts. This team reminds me more of 2006.
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This Just In
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Bold Prediction: The Hoyas will win at least 1 BE game in 2023.
Posts: 10,592
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Post by This Just In on Mar 13, 2015 7:29:01 GMT -5
Hi guys After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better. What do you guys think? After seeing last night's performance, do you still believe this? Does the team to you look like they are stepping up?
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Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,304
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Post by Cambridge on Mar 13, 2015 8:53:15 GMT -5
Hi guys After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better. What do you guys think? After seeing last night's performance, do you still believe this? Does the team to you look like they are stepping up? That is the oddest thing to post after a victory. Crawl back under your bridge.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 13, 2015 10:12:41 GMT -5
Hi guys After our recent early outs, I am sure this year is going to be different. Why?? Let me explain. Two years ago I started a thread Is Otto wearing down. No one agreed with me at the time, but I still think I was correct. Anyway what is different now. We have infinitely more depth and in the two weeks before this we only had one game per week. Add to that that DSR was rested yesterday and you have a team that is not worn down. I don't know how far we will get in the tournament, but I bet we look a whole lot better. What do you guys think? After seeing last night's performance, do you still believe this? Does the team to you look like they are stepping up? Survive and advance, my friend. Win a game when you play less than your best. That is what the postseason is all about. We won't win many more playing like last night- but we won't play like last night every game. Starting tonight.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 13, 2015 10:17:23 GMT -5
This year will be different because our history has been so bad that our opponent will be over confident going into our game and think they just have to show up and can sleep walk through the game.
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drquigley
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,386
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Post by drquigley on Mar 13, 2015 10:44:16 GMT -5
Three letters why we will do better this year - DSR! He is arrived as the man we need in the clutch a la Jeff Green. Sure we probably won't get beyond the sweet 16 but with DSR playing at this level we won't wash out in the first weekend. M
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 13, 2015 10:48:11 GMT -5
Three letters why we will do better this year - DSR! He is arrived as the man we need in the clutch a la Jeff Green. Sure we probably won't get beyond the sweet 16 but with DSR playing at this level we won't wash out in the first weekend. M I want to believe, but that's the exact same thing I said about Otto Porter going into the Big East Tournament.
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hoyazeke
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,818
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Post by hoyazeke on Mar 13, 2015 10:59:30 GMT -5
Three letters why we will do better this year - DSR! He is arrived as the man we need in the clutch a la Jeff Green. Sure we probably won't get beyond the sweet 16 but with DSR playing at this level we won't wash out in the first weekend. M I want to believe, but that's the exact same thing I said about Otto Porter going into the Big East Tournament. TBird, that year it was pretty much just Otto on offense. This year DSR has help and if like last night he is off for a half, Josh, Ike or Brilly can pick up the slack. If Otto had missed a game like SHU no way we would have won.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 13, 2015 11:44:10 GMT -5
This team is good, not great. As such, it may be subject to upsets like any other. I think the biggest thing people forget is that there isn't that much differentiation in college basketball.
Look at the game tonight. We are ranked higher than Xavier in almost every system, have a better record, etc. People will say "We should win." We will be favorites. But it's gonna be by like a point. And that means our win expectancy is going to be like 53%. That's essentially a toss-up.
But some people will peg it as a March failure if we lose. If both teams play normal, it's a coin flip.
Even when we are favored by six or something, it's usually only a 60-65% win expectancy. Whatever our first round game is, even a team without our history in our seed will likely only be a 60%-70% favorite or so.
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cheer48
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 180
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Post by cheer48 on Mar 13, 2015 11:57:23 GMT -5
this TEAM me thinks that even in my ole age I can remember this TEAM trashing Rollie and the Villa within recent memory, by something like 20.....This Team is pretty damned good for my bucks from the cheap seats..Doc
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 15,620
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Post by SirSaxa on Mar 13, 2015 12:10:13 GMT -5
this TEAM me thinks that even in my ole age I can remember this TEAM trashing Rollie and the Villa within recent memory, by something like 20.....This Team is pretty damned good for my bucks from the cheap seats..Doc I like your view from the "cheap seats" and I like the way you think too. My prediction is a Hoya W tonight!
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sleepy
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,079
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Post by sleepy on Mar 13, 2015 12:23:56 GMT -5
This team is good, not great. As such, it may be subject to upsets like any other. I think the biggest thing people forget is that there isn't that much differentiation in college basketball. Look at the game tonight. We are ranked higher than Xavier in almost every system, have a better record, etc. People will say "We should win." We will be favorites. But it's gonna be by like a point. And that means our win expectancy is going to be like 53%. That's essentially a toss-up. But some people will peg it as a March failure if we lose. If both teams play normal, it's a coin flip. Even when we are favored by six or something, it's usually only a 60-65% win expectancy. Whatever our first round game is, even a team without our history in our seed will likely only be a 60%-70% favorite or so. The thing about March is that you do not need to be a great team to make a run anymore. Good would do just fine. The problem is that we aren't just at risk to be upset, we are basically guaranteed to be upset at this point. The conversation about the March failures and why this year could be different is completely unrealistic because it's not as if most of the other losses SHOULD have happened. It's not as if we are consistently losing to better teams and teams we didn't have a chance to compete with and that the programs needs to seriously improve to make noise in March. It's quite the opposite in fact. The teams, individually, shouldn't have lost to the teams they lost to, although some were more understandable than others. If we were playing our average or normal game and lost, that would be one thing. With one or two exceptions, we are coming out a completely different team than the one who played the previous 30 games that season and getting thumped. The issue is we seem to play extraordinarily poorly during one game in March every year. Nothing we do during the offseason or season is going to change our ability to not play uncharacteristically terrible for one game of the year, or one half of the year as the case may be. So yea, the differentiation argument is a valid one in some respects, but it seems to be a better explanation for the NC State game, which no one really freaked out about. Our other March issues aren't caused by playing normal and losing in a coin flip. They are caused by playing abnormal and getting dominated. How we get eliminated in the tournament this year will probably determine whether it is perceived as a failure.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 13, 2015 12:45:22 GMT -5
This team is good, not great. As such, it may be subject to upsets like any other. I think the biggest thing people forget is that there isn't that much differentiation in college basketball. Look at the game tonight. We are ranked higher than Xavier in almost every system, have a better record, etc. People will say "We should win." We will be favorites. But it's gonna be by like a point. And that means our win expectancy is going to be like 53%. That's essentially a toss-up. But some people will peg it as a March failure if we lose. If both teams play normal, it's a coin flip. Even when we are favored by six or something, it's usually only a 60-65% win expectancy. Whatever our first round game is, even a team without our history in our seed will likely only be a 60%-70% favorite or so. The thing about March is that you do not need to be a great team to make a run anymore. Good would do just fine. The problem is that we aren't just at risk to be upset, we are basically guaranteed to be upset at this point. The conversation about the March failures and why this year could be different is completely unrealistic because it's not as if most of the other losses SHOULD have happened. It's not as if we are consistently losing to better teams and teams we didn't have a chance to compete with and that the programs needs to seriously improve to make noise in March. It's quite the opposite in fact. The teams, individually, shouldn't have lost to the teams they lost to, although some were more understandable than others. If we were playing our average or normal game and lost, that would be one thing. With one or two exceptions, we are coming out a completely different team than the one who played the previous 30 games that season and getting thumped. The issue is we seem to play extraordinarily poorly during one game in March every year. Nothing we do during the offseason or season is going to change our ability to not play uncharacteristically terrible for one game of the year, or one half of the year as the case may be. So yea, the differentiation argument is a valid one in some respects, but it seems to be a better explanation for the NC State game, which no one really freaked out about. Our other March issues aren't caused by playing normal and losing in a coin flip. They are caused by playing abnormal and getting dominated. How we get eliminated in the tournament this year will probably determine whether it is perceived as a failure. Good lord. We aren't guaranteed to be upset. If you really believe that, why are you watching? As for the rest, this is the real breakdown: 2 wins over lower seeded teams 2 Losses to underseeded, very good mid-majors who at least went to Elite Eight/Final Four 1 Close Loss to a lower seeded major conference school with NBA talent 2 Awful Upsets 2 NIT years It's not a good record by any means. It includes 5 seeding upsets, though three were closer to 60/40 or even 50/50 than the seedings would call out. So yeah, it sucks. But let's not paint it as a series of massive upsets. It's more like two massive upsets, a year where we could have made a run and lost another great team (2008) and the rest are more... we didn't make a run. Again, it's not a good record. It's not a mediocre record. It's bad. But people seem to portray all these games as Ohio/FGCU and they aren't. They are quite a bit different.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,791
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 13, 2015 12:51:41 GMT -5
We're gonna be something like a 5 or a 6 seed. They get upset by 11 seeds all the time. It's not uncommon, in fact, I think 12 seeds have a winning record over the last few years.
Our team is flawed. When we get three guys clicking on offense, we can be very good. But since we can't shoot and have a tendency to throw the ball away, that doesn't happen that often.
These aren't meant to be words of assurance. It's just that this thread seems to be full of people who think that this team is eternally doomed to never win in March because of III or a curse or the uniforms or something and a group that thinks because DSR made a shot yesterday that he really could've missed that everything has changed.
It hasn't. But good news is, curses aren't real. If we're a six seed, I suspect we go in as a slight favorite and the odds of us winning are 50-60%. And that'll be about the odds that we don't throw the ball away and Copeland hits some shots and they don't exploit the hell out of the corner three and DSR's onions shot goes in.
The game will of course be played in a ton of little micro-moments and it could go either way, but the reality is, we aren't going to be huge favorites so it is going to be impossible for it to be a huge upset in reality.
Totally agree that it's a perception problem, but it's hard for me to stress over the tourney. It is what it is. 6s lose to 11s a LOT. They win a lot, too. And unless we win the BET, we're not super likely to be a favorite in our second game.
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