richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 5, 2011 9:09:15 GMT -5
The question is how many Big East team make the Ncaa Tournament? Personally I dont think politically they can get 10 in. Right now IMO here are the locks: 1.PITT 2.ND 3.NOVA 4.L'VILLE 5.CUSE 6.HOYAS 7.UCONN
After that you have four teams on the bubble probably for 1 or 2 spots: 1. WVU- 15-6 (6-3)- Has a great chance to get in. The beat us, and purdue. Seven of there last 8 regular season games are verse ranked teams. With there remaining schedule if they go .500 there in. There biggest negative is loses against ST Johns and MARQ who there directly competing against on the big east bubble. 2. Cinn- 18-4 (5-4) Listen great record but a total paper tiger. Five of there remaining games are verse ranked teams. I cant see them beating more than one of these. Record wise there in but its a back door entry. 3. SJU- 13-8 (5-5) Unlike alot of other people I think they have a shot at getting it. That DUKE game was huge and they are viewed as an up and coming program. Obvioulsy they have had a ton of bad losses and not a ton of quality wins., but we have to look at them now. They survived a let down game against ruters and have a big non conferece game against UCLA today. Im not buring the johnies. 4. MARQ- 14-9 (5-5) As opposed to ST Johns all there losses are quality losses or narrow defeats. Lack of quality wins outside of syracuse is there biggest problem. With only two ranked teams left on the schedule it might be difficult to make that statement at years end.
It could go either way with these four teams but I think only one or two of them get in. Big east gets 9 bids max...
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Post by bigelephant on Feb 5, 2011 9:33:59 GMT -5
Cinnci is a lock and WVa, SJU,Marq will fight it out for the remaining spots. I think 10 total as of now.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 5, 2011 10:33:37 GMT -5
Everyone else is struggling. Those 4 big east teams could very easily get in. Compare those 4 big east teams to the other non locks around the country and they match up very well.
Let’s look at some teams. bad loss = RPI of 100 or above no bad losses = no losses out side top 50
BE bottom 4 at large bids: WV [15-6 (6-3), RPI: 13, SOS: 5] 5 top 50 wins 0 bad losses St. John’s [13-8 (5-5), RPI: 20, SOS: 2] 4 top 50 wins 2 bad losses Cincinnati [18-4 (5-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 125] 2 top 50 wins no bad losses Marquette [14-9 (5-5), RPI: 62, SOS: 28] 3 top 50 wins worst loss RPI 70
ACC: North Carolina [16-5 (6-1), RPI: 14, SOS: 15] 2 top 50 win 1 bad loss Boston College [14-8 (4-4), RPI: 41, SOS: 22] 1 top 50 win 1 bad loss Florida State [16-6 (6-2), RPI: 55, SOS: 92] 2 top 50 wins 1 bad loss Virginia Tech [15-6 (5-3), RPI: 61, SOS: 85] 2 top 50 wins 2 bad losses Maryland [14-8 (4-4), RPI: 75, SOS: 51] 1 top 50 win worst loss RPI 61
B10: Minnesota [16-6 (5-5), RPI: 26, SOS: 34] 3 top 50 wins 2 bad losses Illinois [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 34, SOS: 25] 4 top 50 wins 2 bad losses Michigan State [13-9 (5-5), RPI: 42, SOS: 6] 3 top 50 wins 1 bad loss Penn State [12-9 (5-5), RPI: 46, SOS: 4] 3 top 50 wins 1 bad loss
B12:
Kansas State [14-8 (3-5), RPI: 38, SOS: 11] 0 top 50 wins worst loss is RPI 89 Oklahoma State [15-7 (3-5), RPI: 45, SOS: 55] 3 top 50 wins 1 bad loss Nebraska [15-6 (3-4), RPI: 90, SOS: 146] 1 top 50 wins 2 bad losses Baylor [14-7 (4-4), RPI: 86, SOS: 83] 1 top 50 win 2 bad losses Colorado [ 14-8 (4-4), RPI: 89, SOS: 116] 4 top 50 wins 2 bad losses
SEC:
Florida [17-5 (6-2), RPI: 17, SOS: 8] 5 top 50 wins 3 bad losses Tennessee [15-7 (5-2), RPI 19, SOS: 3] 5 top 50 wins 1 bad loss Vanderbilt [15-6 (3-4), RPI: 23, SOS: 23] 3 top 50 wins 1 bad loss Georgia [15-6 (4-4), RPI: 37, SOS: 37] 2 top 50 wins no bad losses
Pac10:
Arizona [19-4 (8-2), RPI: 18, SOS: 46] 1 top 50 win 1 bad loss. Washington [15-6 (7-3), RPI: 32, SOS: 47] 2 top 50 wins 2 bad losses. UCLA [15-7 (7-3), RPI: 44, SOS: 35] 1 top 50 win 1 bad loss Washington State [15-7 (5-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 96] 1 top 50 win 1 bad loss
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richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 5, 2011 15:49:45 GMT -5
The St Johns loss today to UCLA really hurt there chances of an at large bid. They have Uconn, Pitt and Nova left of the schedule. They need to get two of them and take care of business. Lots of work to do.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Feb 5, 2011 16:56:32 GMT -5
one fewer than there should be
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MCIGuy
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Post by MCIGuy on Feb 6, 2011 8:45:08 GMT -5
The St Johns loss today to UCLA really hurt there chances of an at large bid. That's not true. They lost on the road to a non-conference opponent that itself has a legit shot of making the big dance. It's not as if the Johnnies lost to DePaul at home. As soon as St. John's beat Duke the game against UCLA became relatively unimportant. With St. John's RPI and SOS rankings the Red Storm could go 8 and 10 in Big East play and still have a good chance at making the NCAA tournament. If St. John's finishes 9-9 in conference they are a LOCK to make the dance.
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richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 6, 2011 8:56:21 GMT -5
That's not true. They lost on the road to a non-conference opponent that itself has a legit shot of making the big dance. It's not as if the Johnnies lost to DePaul at home. As soon as St. John's beat Duke the game against UCLA became relatively unimportant. With St. John's RPI and SOS rankings the Red Storm could go 8 and 10 in Big East play and still have a good chance at making the NCAA tournament. If St. John's finishes 9-9 in conference they are a LOCK to make the dance.[/quote]
I partially agree with you. I DO think that St Johns has a great chance at 9-9 come end of the regular season I just dont think that gets them in without winning two games in the BET. What im saying is they dont have as many chances at quality wins as other teams do. They play AT nova, and against Pitt and Uconn. It might come down to post BET and St johns is sitting with 18 wins, all im saying is that UCLA game would have helped alot. Listen, its all speculative all im saying sitting at 13 wins it would have helped to get that one in the bank....
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 6, 2011 10:00:37 GMT -5
it definitely would've helped especially because it would've been a win over a fellow bubble team. That being said, I think St. John's will be fine. The way I look at teams I tend to cancel their best wins and their worst losses based on the RPI. SO if you throw out the duke win and the Georgetown win but also forget about the fordham and st. Bonaventure losses. You still have a team that beat WV and ND Fellow bubble team NW. They still have plenty of chances at quality wins they get Uconn in the garden on thursday + @ cinci(RPI wise still quality plus fellow bubble team) @ Marquette(same thing) Pitt and @ Nova. They have 3 very winnable games in Depaul, USF, and @ Seton Hall to get them to 8 BE wins. Just get 1 or 2 of the remaining 5 and they're dancing.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 6, 2011 13:27:30 GMT -5
I think 10 make it:
Pitt, Cuse, UConn, Nova, ND, Gtown - in L'ville, West Va. - will make it Johnnies, Cinci, 'quette - two of these will make it, not sure which two though, depends on what happens this month / in the BET. Johnnies are likeliest, 'quette has some work to do.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 6, 2011 14:26:16 GMT -5
I have no idea.
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Feb 6, 2011 15:00:59 GMT -5
All the Bracketologies of the world are snapshots in time, of course. It's conceivable when taking that snapshot on the first weekend of February that Big East could see 11 teams in the Tournament, because right now the 9th-11th BE teams (Cincy, MU, and SJU) are all .500 in the conference. I realize the conference has a pretty broad middle right now (everything between 2nd and 11th can move around a lot), but it seems most likely that by the end of 18 games, some more separation will occur.
Since the BE went to 18 games, the 11th place team has been 7-11 each year. The 10th place team was 9-9 once (SHU last year) and 8-10 twice. I GUESS it's possible this year we could have a big soft middle with 3 or 4 9-9 or 8-10 teams between 8 and 11...but doesn't that seem like the kind of thing you say every year at this time?
Now, the BE middle--let's say the teams currently below GU--has a strong RPI: UConn (11), WVU (16), SJU (22), Cincy (37), MU less so (64).
But somebody has to finish 9th-11th, and those teams are probably going to be 9-9 or worse in conference...which means if either of the above 5 teams do it, they're absorbing at least 4 more losses in their last 8 or so games.
So what will happen: (1) those RPI numbers will dip; (2) there will be chances for "bad" losses against lower BE teams or fellow bubble teams; and (3) the "last 10 games" stat will look poor.
The question may become: is a 8-10 or 7-11 conference record too ugly to be overcome by the better parts of your resume? I say yes.
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lichoya68
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Post by lichoya68 on Feb 6, 2011 15:40:28 GMT -5
10 or eleven imo yup THAT STRONG
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Post by wrestlemania on Feb 7, 2011 0:35:09 GMT -5
not south florida -- there, I said it
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 7, 2011 11:24:35 GMT -5
I think 8-10 is enough for a team with a good RPI to get in from the Big east based on the week bubble and the strength of the BE.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 7, 2011 12:19:07 GMT -5
While I think it is reasonable to argue that, as of today, the conference can get 10 or even 11 in, I think 9 is probably the most the conference gets in at the conclusion of the conference tournaments. Two of those four "bubble" teams (WVU, Cincy, Quette, SJU) will likely drop a bunch of games down the stretch.
Btw, outside of Pitt and ND, I don't think all of the Top 7 mentioned above are locks. For instance, any team with a record of 6-4 in the league right now could foreseeably finish 8-10. Even Georgetown at 7-4 is not a lock. We have only 1 conference game remaining against a second tier BE team (South Florida) and that one is on the road. We have 6 tough first tier games ahead of us.
I think the top 7 are like to get in, but not all technically are locks (unless you are looking at it as a snapshot today).
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skyhoya
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Post by skyhoya on Feb 7, 2011 21:46:44 GMT -5
Only one team counts to me, the rest don't mean jack. looking for the six game winning streak to finish the season with two of them in the big dance in Houston.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 7, 2011 22:16:53 GMT -5
Yeah, I think FL is right. it's easy to take the snapshot now because the middle of the pack is at or about .500, but it's impossible for 11 teams to be that good at the end of the season. i honestly WVU as the team falling off and not getting in. They are a mess right now, and they still have to play Pitt, Lville, ND, Syracuse and UConn. They used to be a lock to win games at home, but they havent played all that well there lately.
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lurkerhoya
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Post by lurkerhoya on Feb 7, 2011 22:41:33 GMT -5
I say no more than 8, but with expansion, maybe 9. It would take a bizarre year in the BE where teams 9-11 somehow finished above 500 in conference play for the current projections to hold up. Teams below .500 in conference play will never be "snubbed" compared to the teams that typically would be left out.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 7, 2011 22:42:06 GMT -5
I agree.
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Post by Coast2CoastHoya on Feb 7, 2011 23:27:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I think FL is right. it's easy to take the snapshot now because the middle of the pack is at or about .500, but it's impossible for 11 teams to be that good at the end of the season. i honestly WVU as the team falling off and not getting in. They are a mess right now, and they still have to play Pitt, Lville, ND, Syracuse and UConn. They used to be a lock to win games at home, but they havent played all that well there lately. WVU lost to Pitt tonight, too.
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