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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 22, 2011 20:12:41 GMT -5
I was looking at MU's profile just the other day. They've played the compettion, they just don't get the wins. The only way they can complicate things is to finish 10-8. At 9-9, I think they don't show enough to help themselves considering that would mean a loss to UConn and Prov/Cincy/SHU and 5-5 in the last 10 heading into BET. Sure, they have 3 decent wins, but hell every team in the BE is going to have at least 1-2 solid wins a year. Cincy is probably going to be out too, IMO. Knock on wood, but between us and UConn, they should end up 9-9 as well with only 3 wins. Cincy, at least has a chance here though. Theoretically, they can go 3-1 with 2 huge wins in there to finish 11-7. They do that, they're in. WVU is interesting. They could easily finish 8-10, but let's assume 9-9. That'd be 4-6 heading into the BET with only 3 real wins. I'm figuring they go 2-2 down the stretch here though. If the discussion is really between these 3 teams, WVU certainly looks the strongest as of now. At least one of these teams will be a .500 or below team. We're looking at 10 max, and I'm gonna stick with 9 unless Cincy does something crazy. WVU has more than 3 real wins. Even if you want to exclude Cleveland St. and Cincy because you feel they will fall off the pace in the next 2 weeks, they've still beaten Vandy, Gtown, Purdue, and ND. Just can't see a team that has performed up to their level thus far with that kind of a SOS missing. I think you're right about Marquette and Cinci both probably feeling uneasy if they only go 9-9 in the BE, but I don't think the argument that they should be looked down upon because "every team in the BE is going to have at least 1-2 good wins this year." They are in competition with other bubble teams from other conferences, many of which have fewer or even no top 50 wins to speak of. Going into this week, B101's last 4 in were the following: BC, Colorado St., Nebraska and Gonzaga. Here are their relevant numbers: BC: RPI: 45, SOS: 19, 1-6 vs. Top 50 CSU: RPI: 47, SOS: 43, 2-4 vs. Top 50 Nebraska: RPI: 63, SOS: 80, 2-5 vs. Top 50 Gonzaga: RPI: 73, SOS: 90, 1-6 vs. Top 50 If we're going by Top 50 wins, Cinci and Marquette both have 3, which is more than any of these teams. Cinci's RPI of 38 is better than any of these teams, and it's unlikely to drop significantly with their slate of tough games coming up. I think if they beat either us or UConn down the stretch, they're in. Four top-50 wins and at least a .500 record in the best conference should do it. If they get to 9-9 by simply beating Marquette, I think it becomes dicey. So essentially, they get 3 shots at a berth, not counting the BET. I think Marquette, though, is in trouble because their RPI of 67 is really in a danger zone, and although their schedule down the stretch is easier than Cinci's, it also means they have less opportunities to impress the committee. If they're able to get to 9-9 by beating UConn along the way, it might be enough for the same reasons I think Cinci would get in. But simply beating Prov and SHU probably won't do it. The biggest thing is Marquette-Cinci play each other, so it's unlikely that both get in because one of two is going to get hurt by losing that game. But it's still possible given how weak the bubble is. My money is on 10 teams, with a very outside shot at 11.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 22, 2011 20:22:59 GMT -5
Of course, all of this is somewhat irrelevant because there's that BE tournament looming. No one is going to finish 9-9 -- they are either going to get at least to 10 wins or go 9-10.
The problem with going 9-9 is that if you lose in the first round of the BET, that might very well knock you out.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 22, 2011 20:35:10 GMT -5
Of course, all of this is somewhat irrelevant because there's that BE tournament looming. No one is going to finish 9-9 -- they are either going to get at least to 10 wins or go 9-10. The problem with going 9-9 is that if you lose in the first round of the BET, that might very well knock you out. True, but I think for example if Cinci beats us or UConn, I think they could survive a loss in the BET if it's against a team that wouldn't damage their profile. If they lose in the 8/9 game or the 7/10 game, odds are losing that game wouldn't completely kill them because it's against another Top-50 team. Now, if you drop a game against the likes of SHU or worse in your first BET game, that's probably the nail in the coffin.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 22, 2011 21:51:33 GMT -5
There's a decent possibility Cincy would be favored to beat us at home, too. So, I think it's giving them short shrift to say they are a 9-9 team. If they beat us once and one other game, I think they are pretty much a lock.
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TrueHoyaBlue
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 22, 2011 22:07:27 GMT -5
But if Marquette or Cincy is playing in the 8/9 game or the 7/10 game, it means they've already won a game on Tuesday, meaning they're probably looking at a 10-10 BE record, which would be difficult for the NCAA tournament to pass on, given the strength of schedule, the fact that both teams would be around 20 wins overall, the level of competition, the other bubble teams.
On the other hand, these are definitely in the way hypothetical category. What's not hypothetical is that unless they drop all four remaining games (unlikely) WVU has played their way into near-lock status, meaning a likely minimum of nine BE teams, pending the Bearcats and Golden Eagles fortunes.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 22, 2011 22:53:43 GMT -5
I'd say 10 is a lock unless anyone falls off. In my opinion Cinci and WV are in their profiles are too good to leave out. Marquette can still get in to make it 11, but it will be tough.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Feb 23, 2011 0:07:54 GMT -5
If cincy is favored against us in their place, I might actually buy a farm and bet it. To that end, anyone wanna go dutch on a farm?
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 23, 2011 9:11:04 GMT -5
If cincy is favored against us in their place, I might actually buy a farm and bet it. To that end, anyone wanna go dutch on a farm? Yikes, do we really think we are leaps and bounds better than Cincinnati? They beat up L'ville at home, and L'ville currently resides in 3rd place tied with us. If we dont play well tonight or next weekend, we will lose. As others have pointed out too, Cincinnati is playing for the tournament. Their entire season may rest on beating us once.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 23, 2011 10:44:00 GMT -5
If cincy is favored against us in their place, I might actually buy a farm and bet it. To that end, anyone wanna go dutch on a farm? Yikes, do we really think we are leaps and bounds better than Cincinnati? They beat up L'ville at home, and L'ville currently resides in 3rd place tied with us. If we dont play well tonight or next weekend, we will lose. As others have pointed out too, Cincinnati is playing for the tournament. Their entire season may rest on beating us once. Honestly if Cinci wins one game in their final 4 and 1 in the BET they're in. If they beat marquette and Uconn they can still get in with being swept by Georgetown.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 23, 2011 10:46:46 GMT -5
I expect Cincy to be favored at Cincy -- or very close.
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Feb 23, 2011 11:44:45 GMT -5
MOST TEN probably nine id say thats the time of the game tonite WRIGHT ??
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 23, 2011 12:04:16 GMT -5
MOST TEN probably nine id say thats the time of the game tonite WRIGHT ?? sometimes your diarrhea-style posting takes over the entire Last 10 Posts page for gods sake. Would you ever consider putting your thoughts and emoticons in one post instead of carpet-bombing every thread? Understand that there's some poetic lic-ense (see what I did there?) granted, but my god can it be annoying. /been building all season
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lichoya68
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OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
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Post by lichoya68 on Feb 23, 2011 12:07:08 GMT -5
my humble apologies BEAT CINNCY
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CTHoya08
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Bring back Izzo!
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Post by CTHoya08 on Feb 23, 2011 12:16:46 GMT -5
I, for one, am pretty nervous about beating Cincy in DC tonight.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 23, 2011 16:07:53 GMT -5
The only NCAA bid that really matters is ours, and I'm just so happy that we are at 21 overall wins, 10 conference wins, #5 RPI, and #3 SOS. We are IN, no matter what happens, and it's so nice that we are just playing to preserve/improve seeding. No bubble talk around here. Coming from 1-4 in conference, that simply is an amazing turn around. Well done, boys! Amen anch, do't think any of us would have predicted that we would be a lock at this point after that start. Now let's just hope the guys don't ease up even a little, we need all our effort and focus each night.
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lurkerhoya
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Post by lurkerhoya on Feb 23, 2011 19:44:28 GMT -5
Let's go Hoyas. Start Cincy's slide to the NIT tonight.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 24, 2011 19:20:12 GMT -5
I think one more win for Cinci at any point before Selection Sunday gets them in. Extremely close to being the 10th lock.
Marquette needs this one bad tonight. Hoping they get it for our own tie-breaking purposes.
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Post by nashvillehoyas on Feb 24, 2011 22:05:28 GMT -5
Marquette should be in after the big win at UConn. West Virgina, St. John's and Cincy should be fine. Eleven teams should be in.....At least 5-6 teams to Sweet 16 and one or possibly two teams in Final Four.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 24, 2011 23:17:32 GMT -5
Marquette should be in after the big win at UConn. West Virgina, St. John's and Cincy should be fine. Eleven teams should be in.....At least 5-6 teams to Sweet 16 and one or possibly two teams in Final Four. In for now, but they still have work to do. Drop 2 of the next 3 and they will have to make some noise in NYC.
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Post by AustinHoya03 on Mar 13, 2011 17:46:06 GMT -5
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