lurkerhoya
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Post by lurkerhoya on Feb 8, 2011 16:04:08 GMT -5
MVC and WCC are both in the mix for multiple bids if the front-runners don't win their conference tournaments.
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MacHoya
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by MacHoya on Feb 8, 2011 19:15:04 GMT -5
In the history of the 64 team format, I would guess that 1-2 teams with a losing conference record have ever made the tournament. It's pretty silly to think my position is the one that doesn't bear out the reality of the field. But, I will stand corrected when a Big East team with a losing record makes it. According to data on the KenPom site, ten teams with losing regular season conference records have made the NCAA tournament in the years 2003 to 2010, three of which got in by winning their conference championship. Of the ten, four were from the ACC (MD '04 [conf champ], NCSt '05, MD '09 & G Tech '10), three were from the SEC (Bama '03, Ark '07 & Georgia '08 [conf. champ with 4-12 record]), and one each from the B10 (Iowa '05), Pac 10 (Arizona '08) and Big East (SUcks '06 [conf champ]). Of the seven non conference champs on this list, most ended up being ranked in the 20's and 30's on Pomeroy's final ranking for that year. Maryland's '09 team received Pomeroy's worst ranking of the group (#54).
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MacHoya
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Post by MacHoya on Feb 8, 2011 19:17:59 GMT -5
The Big East's 11th place team, St. Johns is currently 5-5 but is projected by Pomeroy to finish 8-10 and is ranked at #52. He projects the top ten Big East teams to finish at 10-8 or better. It would seem that St. John's has a reasonable shot at 9-9 if they can upset Seton Hall on the road and UConn at home while avoiding home upsets at the hands of Depaul or S. Florida.
Personally, I think it will take a 9-9 record and at least one win in the BE tournament for St. John's to get in. Regardless of whether one thinks Seton Hall or Providence (12th best team) is better than the 4th best teams in the ACC (Maryland / Clemson), B10 (Illinois) or SEC (Tenn, Georgia, Vandy), there is no way the Big East gets in 12 teams.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 8, 2011 21:26:36 GMT -5
Thanks for doing the research. Interesting stuff. But, i can even remember that the '09 MD team and the '10 Ga Tech team, like lurker said, really got in from making deep runs in their conference tourney.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 8, 2011 21:58:25 GMT -5
I still think the competitiveness of this years big east and the lack of good teams else where will really help these last few teams get in. BE 79.5% OOC win% 1.3% higher than conference #2 and 9% higher than the ACCs. BE with #1 conference RPI next highest is 0.1 lower and the ACC is 0.3 lower. It's also 0.1 higher than the highest conference RPI last year and the highest of any conference since 03-04.
There are currently 9 BE teams int he top 26 of the RPI and 10 in the top 35. 14 in the top 101.
Xavier just got a big bubble win @ Georgia tonight(which also helps cinci). BC and Clemson playing tonight also has bubble implications. Honestly a 8-10 BE team is more worthy than a 9-7 ACC team assuming those 9 don't include Duke or UNC.
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richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 10, 2011 19:39:46 GMT -5
A couple of really big games coming up in the big east that will help determine how many teams get into the tournament.
1. Tonights UCONN vs St Johns game. Honestly I belive St Johns needs to win either tonight or against Pitt. I believe both games are at home and Uconn being the easier game. St Johns really needs another Big regular season conference win.
2. DePaul at WVU- A must win for WVU With one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country, cuse,ND, Pitt, UCONN and L'ville this game is there last gimmee!
3. Marquette vs Hoyas- This game scares the crap out of me. Usually the team that needs the game most wins it. Marquette has by far the easiest road of the four bubble big east teams. A win against us would set the stage for a late season run for a tournament bid.
4. Finally St Johns vs The Natty- Huge bubble game, 2 wins for St johns and they are right there, two losses and a Natty win would get them to 20 wins and an unfortuante paper tiger lock for a tournament bid..
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Feb 10, 2011 21:14:22 GMT -5
Johnnies smoked UConn. Helping their case....
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 11, 2011 9:49:24 GMT -5
10
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superan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by superan on Feb 11, 2011 9:50:13 GMT -5
It makes me happy to see St. John's back. Not yet sure how I feel about Lavin.... but it is great for Big East basketball and the cohesion of the conference to have another non-football school be relevant again.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 11, 2011 10:09:38 GMT -5
Yeah, i say SJU is in for sure. I dont think you can predict that they'll finish 8-10 anymore. I think you'd have to predict them at 9-9, at least, and they'd be an absolute lock with their wins. I still think you guys are giving too much credit to Marquette and Cinci, and I agree with rich that WVU has a very tough schedule down the stretch. Marquette has to beat us or UConn, and that's what makes me nervous about Sunday. They are going to come out extremely desperate.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 11, 2011 10:10:54 GMT -5
3. Marquette vs Hoyas- This game scares the crap out of me. Usually the team that needs the game most wins it. Marquette has by far the easiest road of the four bubble big east teams. A win against us would set the stage for a late season run for a tournament bid. I was told I am not allowed to say things like this...
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lurkerhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by lurkerhoya on Feb 11, 2011 11:56:19 GMT -5
Add an upped fear factor to the UConn game. They don't "need" the game, but they're in danger of playing on Tuesday now. On that note, who wants to play SJU in March? Not me.
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damnhoya
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by damnhoya on Feb 11, 2011 15:29:26 GMT -5
From rivals. Currently projecting 10 Big East teams. Have Gtown as a 2 seed. 1 Big East team as a 1 seed (Pitt), 3 as 2 seeds (Gtown, Nova and ND), 1 as a 3 seed (UConn - that won't last), and 2 as 4 seeds (Cuse and Ville). collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1187508
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 11, 2011 16:10:58 GMT -5
3. Marquette vs Hoyas- This game scares the crap out of me. Usually the team that needs the game most wins it. Marquette has by far the easiest road of the four bubble big east teams. A win against us would set the stage for a late season run for a tournament bid. I was told I am not allowed to say things like this... Neither is Richfame! We are frickin' Georgetown, we have won 7 straight, and we are home against a middle-of-the-pack team. Don't get me wrong, there is certainly no guarantee of victory, we have to be ready to play and ready for a battle - but the players and staff know that, and we will be ready. C'mon guys, don't be "terrified" or "scared"; we have to be strong for our team!
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Feb 11, 2011 16:46:37 GMT -5
For what it's worth, the local afternoon guy down here just restated his opinion that the BE will get 10 bids "for sure" and barring a series of circumstances, he really thinks that 11 is the number.
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hifigator
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Post by hifigator on Feb 11, 2011 16:51:52 GMT -5
Hifi's point about favorites in the mid-majors is, to me, the biggest hurdle. The field was expanded obviously for money, but my gut feeling is that the Committee is going to see it as an invitation for bringing in more mid-majors. This will especially be true if a team like Oakland loses their tournament in the finals. Maybe they're not really a deserving team, but I could see them getting a nod over the BE's 9th or 10th team politically. But hifi's point misses the point: there are NO mid-major faves this year. None. That's why 10-11 Big East teams are likely to get in. The major conferences, Mountain West, A-10, CAA, and maybe perhaps C-USA (did I miss any?) are the only conferences that will feature an at-large bid. The rest are all one-bid conferences, period, with no favorites who need to "take care of business" to create room on the bubble. So it boils down to a question of whether you'd rather have the 12th best Big East team or the 4th best ACC/SEC/B10 team in your field of 68. I'm not going to argue semantics. My point was simply -- as is the case every year -- if those smaller conference tourneys are won by the favorite, who would likely otherwise occupy an at-large, then I really do see 11 BE teams getting bids. The larger field certainly helps that. I didn't mean to imply that there were some larger number of "deserving" teams among the smaller conferences to potentially gum things up. Illustration: did Utah St. loss to Idaho tarnish their resume' enough to mandate they need to win their tourney to get in? Many think so. Also, Cal St Mary's is looking strong, but if they win the tourney will Gonzaga get a bid because of their past? Most question their validity this year. What about San Diego St? They are certain to get in barring a total collapse, but how does that affect the bids? That's all I'm saying.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Feb 11, 2011 18:57:11 GMT -5
SDSU and BYU are getting in no matter what -- I guess if a third team won that tourney it could squeeze, but I don't think that's where to look.
St. Mary's has earned an at large, but Gonzaga hasn't -- so if GU wins the SMU wins the toruney, it's one for the WCC, and if not, two.
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hoyarooter
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 11, 2011 21:27:13 GMT -5
"Cal St. Mary's"? I didn't realize there was a University of California at St. Mary's. Thanks for enlightening me, hifi.
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richfame
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by richfame on Feb 12, 2011 14:27:10 GMT -5
The question is how many Big East team make the Ncaa Tournament? Personally I dont think politically they can get 10 in. Right now IMO here are the locks: 1.PITT 2.ND 3.NOVA 4.L'VILLE 5.HOYAS 6.UCONN After that you have five teams on the bubble probably for 3 spots: 1. WVU- 15-6 (6-3)- Has a great chance to get in. The beat us, and purdue. Seven of there last 8 regular season games are verse ranked teams. With there remaining schedule if they go .500 there in. There biggest negative is loses against ST Johns and MARQ who there directly competing against on the big east bubble. 2. Cinn- 18-4 (5-4) Listen great record but a total paper tiger. Five of there remaining games are verse ranked teams. I cant see them beating more than one of these. Record wise there in but its a back door entry. 3. SJU- 13-8 (5-5) Unlike alot of other people I think they have a shot at getting it. That DUKE game was huge and they are viewed as an up and coming program. Obvioulsy they have had a ton of bad losses and not a ton of quality wins., but we have to look at them now. They survived a let down game against ruters and have a big non conferece game against UCLA today. Im not buring the johnies. 4. MARQ- 14-9 (5-5) As opposed to ST Johns all there losses are quality losses or narrow defeats. Lack of quality wins outside of syracuse is there biggest problem. With only two ranked teams left on the schedule it might be difficult to make that statement at years end. 5.. CUSE- Now is officially on the bubble:) It could go either way with these five teams but I think only three of them get in. Big east gets 9 bids max... FIXED!
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 13, 2011 7:56:11 GMT -5
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