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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 14, 2011 18:55:35 GMT -5
More and more I think about it, I think the BE is getting 10 max, even though they have 11 in right now according to most projections (and rightfully so).
Cinci is in huge trouble with Gates going into headcase mode. Of all the BE bubble teams, they have by far the worst SOS, and with their remaining schedule of Lville, at Prov., at GU, UConn, at Marquette, GU, they would be lucky to go 2-4 there. 8-10 in the BE without a deep run into the BET wont be enough to get them in with that SOS. I think it's safe to say that unless they split their 4 games against us, UConn, and Lville, they are going to miss the dance.
Marquette is also on shaky ground, but they've played a far more difficult schedule and have a much better chance to get to 9-9 by the end (SJU, SHU, at UConn, Prov, Cinci, at SHU). The Cinci-Marquette game will probably end up being a play-in game, and Marquette will be at home for that one.
Aside from the seven obvious locks: Pitt, ND, GU, Lville, Nova, UConn, Cuse (as much as we hate them, they realistically need just one more win to get in and they will get it somewhere), I think WVU and SJU have resumes that cannot be surpassed by many of the other bubble teams. WVU has 4 top 50 wins, SJU has 5, and both have top-25 RPIs and top 5 SOSs. Both probably need just one more win to clinch a berth.
So my guess is 10 bids for the BE, but again, still a lot of basketball to be played.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Feb 14, 2011 19:04:08 GMT -5
Aside from the seven obvious locks: Pitt, ND, GU, Lville, Nova, UConn, Cuse (as much as we hate them, they realistically need just one more win to get in and they will get it somewhere) Who says that has to happen? (Plus, I think they need two more wins). Come on, Rockaway. Think positive!Just think about it: Imagine the scene if Syracuse lost their last home game of the season.......to DePaul? Oh, it's too delicious to even think about. They might just go ahead and tear down the Carrier Dome on the spot. And then all drink some "kool-aid" to go on a spaceship and live in their alternate universe where they always win. ;D
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 14, 2011 19:30:24 GMT -5
Aside from the seven obvious locks: Pitt, ND, GU, Lville, Nova, UConn, Cuse (as much as we hate them, they realistically need just one more win to get in and they will get it somewhere) Who says that has to happen? (Plus, I think they need two more wins). Come on, Rockaway. Think positive!Just think about it: Imagine the scene if Syracuse lost their last home game of the season.......to DePaul? Oh, it's too delicious to even think about. They might just go ahead and tear down the Carrier Dome on the spot. And then all drink some "kool-aid" to go on a spaceship and live in their alternate universe where they always win. ;D Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm rooting like hell for them to lose out and make the committee decide if they want a 20-13 (7-11 BE) Cuse team that has lost 13 of 15 into the Dance. But, I've also seen Depaul. There are HS teams that could compete with that team. Cuse on a bad day would still beat them by double digits at home.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 14, 2011 20:56:08 GMT -5
With 20 wins and 9 conference wins, I think it is nice to note that the Hoyas are dancing no matter what happens the rest of the way. Nice work.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 14, 2011 21:51:55 GMT -5
With 20 wins and 9 conference wins, I think it is nice to note that the Hoyas are dancing no matter what happens the rest of the way. Nice work. While this is true I think everyone would be horrified if we were to lose out or heck even go 2-3 down the stretch.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 14, 2011 21:55:39 GMT -5
Not saying I expect us to lose out going down the stretch, just an observation that no matter what happens, we're securely in the NCAAs. Nice feeling to know we're in after starting 1-4 in conference when a tourney invite was very much in question.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 14, 2011 22:05:26 GMT -5
Oh, you mean Clemson, whose best wins are against (bubble at best) FSU and BC, and 12th in the BIG EAST Seton Hall?
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Post by wrestlemania on Feb 15, 2011 16:03:16 GMT -5
I'm most interested in how the four extra dance cards play out for the bubble teams in the larger conferences. If it works exclusively to their benefit (and remember Boeheim was pushing hard for expansion), then people have a right to be cynical about it.
And what's the deal with Lunardi? I know guys who bet pro wrestling that don't have his rate of success. Something fishy there . . .
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Feb 15, 2011 16:15:39 GMT -5
His picks and my edits:
Atlantic 10 (4): Xavier, Duquesne, Richmond, Temple.
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
Big East (10): Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, St. John's.
Big 10 (6): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota. (One between MSU and Minnesota, but not both)
Big 12 (6): Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas State
CAA (2): George Mason, James Madison (Add ODU.)
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Missouri State (Add Northern Iowa.)
Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, New Mexico. (Add UNLV.)
Pac 10 (3): Arizona, Washington, UCLA
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Alabama.
CUSA: Autobid only Add Memphis
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2011 9:19:01 GMT -5
Marquette is out at this point. I dont see any credible argument for them. They will have to beat UConn on the road or go deep in the BET. I am not sure they are even going to beat Seton Hall 1 of 2 times.
Although, I will say it would be fun to see a game a BE team play on the first 4 Tuesday - like Marquette-Michigan State.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 16, 2011 9:30:07 GMT -5
WVU could be in trouble, also. They close out with ND, @pitt, @rutgers, UCon, L'ville, any, or all, of which they may lose. They can play themselves out if they aren't careful.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 16, 2011 9:32:04 GMT -5
WVU has a great RPI profile, and wins over Purdue and others on their side. I think they'll pick off a couple of the home games and finish 9-9, making the tournament as a 7 or 8 seed. That's how bad the tourney field is this year.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 16, 2011 9:34:53 GMT -5
WVU has a great RPI profile, and wins over Purdue and others on their side. I think they'll pick off a couple of the home games and finish 9-9, making the tournament as a 7 or 8 seed. That's how bad the tourney field is this year. Agree. I wouldn't want to be them (on so many levels ;D), though. It would not surprise me if they did not make it. And for the record, I hope they knock off a few of 'em, esp. ND.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2011 9:44:31 GMT -5
Yeah, good points. The bubble is awful this year. I cant believe people are talking about MSU because they put up a good showing in losing to Ohio State, but they are probably right. MSU is going to get in if they beat Illinois and take care of business against crappy big ten teams. Plus, let's face it, the networks are salivating at the thought of a BE team vs an ACC/B10 team on opening Tuesday. Cant blame them. That would be cool.
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Post by westendhoya on Feb 16, 2011 9:59:27 GMT -5
St. Johns now a lock
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 16, 2011 10:23:08 GMT -5
I think the BIG EAST is looking like 9 solid teams right now, and two that will be on the bubble conversation until the end (Marquette and Cincy). In a 65-team format, those two seem to be in VaTech "just missed" category, but in a weak year with 68 teams...?
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HoyaChris
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 16, 2011 10:44:59 GMT -5
Marquette is out at this point. I dont see any credible argument for them. They will have to beat UConn on the road or go deep in the BET. I am not sure they are even going to beat Seton Hall 1 of 2 times. Although, I will say it would be fun to see a game a BE team play on the first 4 Tuesday - like Marquette-Michigan State. For Marquette to be out, somebody has to be in. Right now, Marquette's win over Notre Dame is the best win by a bubble team over anybody. If they get to 9-9 in conference - and they have a favorable schedule - they will be dancing.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2011 10:57:02 GMT -5
Why should I believe that they are going to get to 9-9? That's the whole point.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 16, 2011 11:02:17 GMT -5
They are certainly stumbling now, but I have to think they have a pretty good shot at beating Seton Hall, Provy and Cincy at home to get to 9-9.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 16, 2011 11:17:09 GMT -5
I dont know, they looked awful last night, and that was a huge, huge game for them.
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