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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 13:59:22 GMT -5
I think a BET run is still in the cards. We will win 2 games.
I actually think winning 3 games puts us back in consideration -- and that really only requires one incredible game in game 3. THIS IS DOABLE. Winning 4 games clinches an NCAA tournament appearance, but is next to impossible. All the posters saying we need to win the whole thing (all 5 games) and get an automatic spot are overreacting to last night's loss.
Check out this BET scenario below based on the seeding assumptions further below. This is unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility. If we win 3 games in the BET, we'll finish 10-12 against conference teams and 19-14 for the season. We'll have the #1 SOS and an RPI around 33. We'll end up with 3 wins against teams currently ranked in the top 5 in the country (Memphis and UConn earlier, plus whoever we would face in game 3). Additionally we'll have wins against #11 Nova from last week and possibly #25 Cuse in Game 2 (who we also have a win against earlier). At that point, I think we're back into consideration.
Game 1: GU vs USF (GU win = 8-11 against conference teams)
Game 2: GU vs Cuse (or maybe Providence or WVU) (GU win = 9-11)
Game 3: GU vs UConn (GU win = 10-11) (this win puts us back into consideration)
Game 4: GU vs Pitt (GU loss = 10-12) (this win would clinch going to the NCAA tournament)
PREDICTED SEEDING:
1 Louisville 16-2 (beat Seton Hall, win at WVU)
2 Pittsburgh 15-3 (beat Marquette and UConn)
3 Connecticut 15-3 (lose at Pitt)
4 Villanova 13-5 (beat Providence)
5 Marquette 13-5 (lose at Pitt, beat Cuse)
6 Syracuse 10-8 (lose at Marquette)
7 Providence 10-8 (lose at Nova)
8 West Virginia 10-8 (beat DePaul, lose to Louisville)
9 Cincinnati 9-9 (beat Seton Hall)
10 Notre Dame 8-10 (beat St. John’s)
11 Georgetown 7-11 (beat DePaul)
12 Seton Hall 6-12 (lose at Louisville, lose at UC)
13 St. John's 6-12 (lose at ND)
14 South Florida 5-13 (win at Rutgers)
15 Rutgers 1-17 (lose to USF)
16 DePaul 0-18 (lose at WVU, lose at GU)
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tjm62
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 855
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Post by tjm62 on Mar 4, 2009 14:07:56 GMT -5
Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul, let alone cuse and Uconn again.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:21:44 GMT -5
Because we just won at #11 Villanova. Because one of our key players Freeman was injured. Because (hopefully) we won't ever see Simms, Nikita, Omar, Clark and Vaughn all playing at the same time ever again. Because I know if we play Cuse again we'll win. Because once we get to UConn, in any one game, anything can happen. Because after losing three straight in overtime, our time has come. Because WE ARE... GEORGETOWN.
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bubbrubbhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
We are the intuitive minds that plot the course. Woo-WOOO!
Posts: 1,369
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Post by bubbrubbhoya on Mar 4, 2009 14:22:02 GMT -5
I BELIEVE
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 4, 2009 14:24:22 GMT -5
Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul, let alone cuse and Uconn again. Because this whole thing is supposed to be fun. There are enough horrible things going on in the world right now--why not dream a little bit about the Hoyas making a run? I know its not realistic, or any where near likely, but I can talk myself into thinking that the scenario hoyafreakinsaxa just laid out might happen and that's a heck of a lot more fun than dwelling in all the negativity. Remember, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. |
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mchoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 375
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Post by mchoya on Mar 4, 2009 14:28:57 GMT -5
Does the BET re-seed after each round under this new format, like the NHL?
If it doesn't, 3 wins gives us USF, probably Cuse, and a top 4 BE team. We wanted five Big East wins to close out the season before SJU; we'd be one shy of that number if we lose in the semis. That's not enough for me to be comfortable. We need to make it to the championship game for the NCAAs.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:29:26 GMT -5
Actually I'd say a two-win run is about 50-50 odds. Game 1 will be against a team that is actually worse than we are (yes, there are teams worse than we are). Game 2 will be against a team who's fans right now are also posting about how disappointing their team is performing, how unlikely a tournament run is, how bad their recent losses were. Then Game 3. The three-win run is unlikely, but doable.
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 14:38:59 GMT -5
Because we just won at #11 Villanova. Because one of our key players Freeman was injured. Because (hopefully) we won't ever see Simms, Nikita, Omar, Clark and Vaughn all playing at the same time ever again. Because I know if we play Cuse again we'll win. Because once we get to UConn, in any one game, anything can happen. Because after losing three straight in overtime, our time has come. Because WE ARE... GEORGETOWN. These fifi fairytale posts are pointless |
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:42:46 GMT -5
We need to make it to the championship game for the NCAAs. Right, that's my point. We "just" need to make it to the championship game to clinch going to the NCAAs, not win the whole thing like everyone has been posting. Further to that, making it to the semi-final doesn't clinch, but definitely does put us back into the conversation (depending on what other bubble teams do). I think it is realistic that we could win the first two games. That get's us to the game three, where a win puts us back into the conversation. In other words, it's realistic that we could get to a point where we have a one-game shot to get into the tournament (depending on other bubble teams, weak league champs winning their conference tournaments, etc.). |
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mchoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 375
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Post by mchoya on Mar 4, 2009 14:45:51 GMT -5
Because we just won at #11 Villanova. Because one of our key players Freeman was injured. Because (hopefully) we won't ever see Simms, Nikita, Omar, Clark and Vaughn all playing at the same time ever again. Because I know if we play Cuse again we'll win. Because once we get to UConn, in any one game, anything can happen. Because after losing three straight in overtime, our time has come. Because WE ARE... GEORGETOWN. These fifi fairytale posts are pointless While the hyperbole and grandiose language may be pointless, I believe the original question was "Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul, let alone cuse and Uconn again." There's no reason that winless DePaul beats us. Right now, that result is incomprehensible. The team only put up 36 points to North f'ing western (who runs the Princeton offensive with less talent than we have) will not beat us. |
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:47:36 GMT -5
These fifi fairytale posts are pointless What's the fairytale? You have to look at this step by step. BET GAME 1: We'll play a team worse than us. Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team worse than us? BET GAME 2: We'll play a team equal to us (Cuse, Providence or WVU). Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team equal to us? BET GAME 3: We'll play a top team. Is it a fairytale that in this one game we have a shot to win? Maybe it's a 30% chance. That's tough, but not a fairytale. Then if that 30% chance goes our way, we're back in the NCAA tournament conversation. #1 SOS, #33 RPI, 3 wins against current top 5 in country, 2 recent wins against 2 other ranked teams, 10-12 in Big East league play. What specifically do you disagree with? |
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mchoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 375
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Post by mchoya on Mar 4, 2009 14:50:12 GMT -5
We need to make it to the championship game for the NCAAs. Right, that's my point. We "just" need to make it to the championship game to clinch going to the NCAAs, not win the whole thing like everyone has been posting. Further to that, making it to the semi-final doesn't clinch, but definitely does put us back into the conversation (depending on what other bubble teams do). I think it is realistic that we could win the first two games. That get's us to the game three, where a win puts us back into the conversation. In other words, it's realistic that we could get to a point where we have a one-game shot to get into the tournament (depending on other bubble teams, weak league champs winning their conference tournaments, etc.). I think that a third win puts us in the conversation, but the conversation will be the third team on the wrong side of the bubble. We need win #4. |
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momzer
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 560
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Post by momzer on Mar 4, 2009 14:50:37 GMT -5
Stop drinking the Kool-Aid. Just get better for next year.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:52:57 GMT -5
Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul Because DePaul has lost 16 straight games and their last win was against Alcorn State last year. Yeah, we have serious problems, but that is a whole other level. |
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 14:54:57 GMT -5
Stop drinking the Kool-Aid. Just get better for next year. We get better for next year by starting to coach the players to play all 40 minutes of every single game like the NCAA tournament is on the line. |
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,737
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 4, 2009 14:55:36 GMT -5
What's the fairytale? You have to look at this step by step. BET GAME 1: We'll play a team worse than us. Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team worse than us? BET GAME 2: We'll play a team equal to us (Cuse, Providence or WVU). Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team equal to us? BET GAME 3: We'll play a top team. Is it a fairytale that in this one game we have a shot to win? Maybe it's a 30% chance. That's tough, but not a fairytale. Then if that 30% chance goes our way, we're back in the NCAA tournament conversation. #1 SOS, #33 RPI, 3 wins against current top 5 in country, 2 recent wins against 2 other ranked teams, 10-12 in Big East league play. What specifically do you disagree with? The problem is that you aren't aggregating the chances. Even before we lost to SJU, the issue with the "four in a row" scenario was that even if you have an 75% chance of winning all of those games (questionable), you only have about a 32% chance of winning all four. And when you have the most inconsistent team in college basketball, that number goes way down. In your new scenario, let's say we have a 75% chance (generous), a 50% chance (generous) and your 30% chance of winning. The chance of winning all three is just 11%. Now add another 30% chance and we're at like 4%. And that's before you factor in our inconsistency. |
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mrsixer123
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,283 
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Post by mrsixer123 on Mar 4, 2009 14:55:53 GMT -5
i guess you believe santa claus is real as well............................
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Mar 4, 2009 15:01:43 GMT -5
What's the fairytale? You have to look at this step by step. BET GAME 1: We'll play a team worse than us. Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team worse than us? BET GAME 2: We'll play a team equal to us (Cuse, Providence or WVU). Is it a fairytale that we'll beat a team equal to us? BET GAME 3: We'll play a top team. Is it a fairytale that in this one game we have a shot to win? Maybe it's a 30% chance. That's tough, but not a fairytale. Then if that 30% chance goes our way, we're back in the NCAA tournament conversation. #1 SOS, #33 RPI, 3 wins against current top 5 in country, 2 recent wins against 2 other ranked teams, 10-12 in Big East league play. What specifically do you disagree with? The problem is that you aren't aggregating the chances. Even before we lost to SJU, the issue with the "four in a row" scenario was that even if you have an 75% chance of winning all of those games (questionable), you only have about a 32% chance of winning all four. And when you have the most inconsistent team in college basketball, that number goes way down. In your new scenario, let's say we have a 75% chance (generous), a 50% chance (generous) and your 30% chance of winning. The chance of winning all three is just 11%. Now add another 30% chance and we're at like 4%. And that's before you factor in our inconsistency. So you're saying we have a chance... ;D |
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JPM32
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 216
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Post by JPM32 on Mar 4, 2009 15:04:31 GMT -5
With an 8-10 conference record and wins @ UConn, @ Villanova, and over Memphis and Syracuse, the Hoyas probably get in with 2 BE Tournament wins. With a 7-11 conference record, the Hoyas would need to win the BE Tournament and get the automatic bid.
That loss last night was just as devastating as it seemed. Any chance of an at large bid ended last night. We have to go to NYC and win the whole thing. And let's be honest - That isn't going to happen.
It's a rebuilding year.
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
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Post by Boz on Mar 4, 2009 15:09:04 GMT -5
Nothing wrong with optimism.
Are there really any posters here who won't be attending/tuning in on Saturday, logging in online next Tuesday, and -- hopefully -- setting time aside for the Hoyas after that first BET game?
If there are, I feel bad for you.
It's a lot more fun if you tune into each game thinking we can win it -- even if you end up disappointed/ticked off/frustrated -- than if you DON'T tune in because you're convinced we won't win.
And if you ARE watching, that means somewhere inside you, whether you consciously recognize it or not, you share the same hope as hoyafreakinsaxa.
I'm not very confident about the rest of this season, but I'll be watching......
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