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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 15:11:04 GMT -5
To think this team has the heart/balls to make any type of run in the BET is to admit you have not closely watched all the games this year.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 15:15:45 GMT -5
In your new scenario, let's say we have a 75% chance (generous), a 50% chance (generous) and your 30% chance of winning. The chance of winning all three is just 11%. Now add another 30% chance and we're at like 4%. I'm agreeing with you. I think we have a 11% chance of winning 3 games and being under consideration, and a 4% chance of winning 4 games and going to the tournament. A 1 in 10 shot at being under consideration is something still worth playing hard for and cheering for. It's not a fairytale. It's not Santa Clause.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 15:20:04 GMT -5
To think this team has the heart/balls to make any type of run in the BET is to admit you have not closely watched all the games this year. I'm not saying this is likely to happen, just that it's not completely ruled out like everyone is saying. Did you watch the comeback at Syracuse? The game at Villanova? We're on life support, but there's still a pulse.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 4, 2009 15:41:33 GMT -5
These fifi fairytale posts are pointless While the hyperbole and grandiose language may be pointless, I believe the original question was "Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul, let alone cuse and Uconn again." There's no reason that winless DePaul beats us. Right now, that result is incomprehensible. The team only put up 36 points to North f'ing western (who runs the Princeton offensive with less talent than we have) will not beat us. There is no reason that a weak St. John's team, 15 points behind with less than a half to play, without a basket for more than 13 minutes, beat us , that is incomprehensible . . . oops, never mind.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 4, 2009 15:43:21 GMT -5
With an 8-10 conference record and wins @ UConn, @ Villanova, and over Memphis and Syracuse, the Hoyas probably get in with 2 BE Tournament wins. With a 7-11 conference record, the Hoyas would need to win the BE Tournament and get the automatic bid. That loss last night was just as devastating as it seemed. Any chance of an at large bid ended last night. We have to go to NYC and win the whole thing. And let's be honest - That isn't going to happen. It's a rebuilding year. Bingo
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 15:45:34 GMT -5
You want to wager on DePaul? I'll take that bet. Loser goes streaking from The Tombs through the quad and into the gymnasium.
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mchoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
Posts: 376
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Post by mchoya on Mar 4, 2009 15:49:05 GMT -5
While the hyperbole and grandiose language may be pointless, I believe the original question was "Why are you assuming we can beat Depaul, let alone cuse and Uconn again." There's no reason that winless DePaul beats us. Right now, that result is incomprehensible. The team only put up 36 points to North f'ing western (who runs the Princeton offensive with less talent than we have) will not beat us. There is no reason that a weak St. John's team, 15 points behind with less than a half to play, without a basket for more than 13 minutes, beat us , that is incomprehensible . . . oops, never mind. But SJU beat ND this year at home. They proved that they could hang with a team like us. It wasn't outside the realm of possibility that we could lose to them.
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Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 18,482
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Post by Nevada Hoya on Mar 4, 2009 15:49:32 GMT -5
Right now I need something good to happen. The Hoyas' winning the BET certainly qualifies.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 15:49:55 GMT -5
Thank you Captain Obvious. Let's start rebuilding this season by winning two in a row. I guarantee right now that's going to happen. Then let's see if we can get a second win in the BET. If that occurs, we'll be facing UConn or Pitt or Louisville and who knows what can happen.
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Post by dmlake99 on Mar 4, 2009 15:57:36 GMT -5
I wish I could be this optimistic to dream up scenario's for an at large...I have drank the kool aid all year long about hope, young team, we will figure it out....so much kool aid my teeth are tinted red and I have a mustache....
After last night I threw the kool aid against the wall...you can quote SOS and RPI all you want...but the fact is that we are just not getting a bid unless we win the entire BET...CBS does a nice little bubble watch in their CBB section. Lists all of the "safe" teams and assumes that one of the "safe" teams win their respective conference....it will leave 13 bids out there for at large...I can definetly name 13 bubble teams more deserving then us..even after 3 BET wins....can you?? (without the blue and gray shades)
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hoyarad
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 521
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Post by hoyarad on Mar 4, 2009 15:57:54 GMT -5
Thank you Captain Obvious. Let's start rebuilding this season by winning two in a row. I guarantee right now that's going to happen. Then let's see if we can get a second win in the BET. If that occurs, we'll be facing UConn or Pitt or Louisville and who knows what can happen. I commend your optimism, but it flies in the face of everything we've witnessed over the last two months. Why, oh why, would you think we'll definitely beat DePaul? We are not playing like a team that can beat anyone right now. Hell, USF beat Cincinatti, a team we couldn't beat twice. Just too unpredictable this year to do anything but take a "wait and see" approach. Go Hoyas....
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 4, 2009 16:05:18 GMT -5
Thank you Captain Obvious. Let's start rebuilding this season by winning two in a row. I guarantee right now that's going to happen. Then let's see if we can get a second win in the BET. If that occurs, we'll be facing UConn or Pitt or Louisville and who knows what can happen. Hey Captain Oblivious - my response was not related to the "rebuilding year" comment, it addressed the comment - 100% accurate to all but the delusional - that the loss last night, as horrific and inexplicable as it was, absolutely doomed us in terms of an at-large bid. You can dream up all the scenarios you want, that loss, added to the Seton Hall and Cincy debacles, require a BET title to get us in.
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hoyarad
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 521
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Post by hoyarad on Mar 4, 2009 16:07:35 GMT -5
Geez...its the optimists versus the realists here! I agree with you Frazier
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royski
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,295
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Post by royski on Mar 4, 2009 16:08:24 GMT -5
I think 7-11 is too big of a pill for the committee to swallow. 4 wins would make a very interesting case, especially since at least 2 and possibly 3 would be marquee. I don't think 3 wins puts us in the conversation personally, right now we're not even on the bubble and I think the third win only starts some buzz. Anyway, I don't think this team is capable of such a run, but I'll certainly be rooting for them.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 16:17:52 GMT -5
I think 7-11 is too big of a pill for the committee to swallow. 4 wins would make a very interesting case, especially since at least 2 and possibly 3 would be marquee. I don't think 3 wins puts us in the conversation personally, right now we're not even on the bubble and I think the third win only starts some buzz. Anyway, I don't think this team is capable of such a run, but I'll certainly be rooting for them. Yeah, I basically agree with you. But do think 4 wins (extremely unlikely) gets us in; don't actually need to win it all. I just think the people who are doubting we can even beat DePaul have swung too far the other direction. Seriously, DePaul? DePaul hasn't won a single Big East game all season. They've lost 16 straight. Their best two wins are against the St. Louis Billikens and Liberty. And we're playing at home. We're going to win.
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JPM32
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 216
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Post by JPM32 on Mar 4, 2009 16:28:49 GMT -5
Thank you Captain Obvious. Let's start rebuilding this season by winning two in a row. I guarantee right now that's going to happen. Then let's see if we can get a second win in the BET. If that occurs, we'll be facing UConn or Pitt or Louisville and who knows what can happen. I was just saying that the SJU loss ended any chances this team had of getting an at large bid and therefore we have to win the BE Tournament to make the NCAAs. Considering how we have played season and that this is a rebuilding year, I think any rational person would have to agree that's simply not going to happen. The Hoyas should be able to dispose of South Florida on Tuesday but after that, it's not unrealistic at all to think they would have to beat Syracuse-Pittsburgh-UConn-Louisville in consecutive nights on a neutral floor to win the Big East. That would be a tall task for UNC, let alone a young Hoyas team. That doesn't mean I won't be watching every second of Hoyas action in NYC next week.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 16:43:13 GMT -5
Let me put what I'm saying another way, which I think we can all agree on. Here's my estimation of the odds: 90% chance to beat DePaul 80% chance to win 1 BET game, 0% chance to make tournament 50% chance to win 2 BET games, 0% chance to make tournament 10% chance to win 3 BET games, 15% chance to make tournament 4% chance to win 4 BET games, 80% chance to make tournament 0.05% chance to win 5 BET games, 100% chance to make tournament
Those odds suck. But let's stop believing once the season is over.
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richfame
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,266
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Post by richfame on Mar 4, 2009 16:57:42 GMT -5
This thread is so worthless. Can we once not micro manage every freaking scenerio when we CANNOT even win 2 games in a row. I mean ill watch every game and hope to hell we win but please stop. This team is the equivelent of a patient that has cancer, ebola zaire and dungy fever and has days to live.
Win the next 3 games then and then lets see this thread again...
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 16:58:47 GMT -5
I guarantee you we'll win the next two games.
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 18:03:59 GMT -5
I guarantee you we'll win the next two games. That and some more blind optimism will get us a ticket to the NIT
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