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Post by strummer8526 on Mar 4, 2009 18:06:05 GMT -5
Let me put what I'm saying another way, which I think we can all agree on. Here's my estimation of the odds: 90% chance to beat DePaul 80% chance to win 1 BET game, 0% chance to make tournament 50% chance to win 2 BET games, 0% chance to make tournament 10% chance to win 3 BET games, 15% chance to make tournament 4% chance to win 4 BET games, 80% chance to make tournament 0.05% chance to win 5 BET games, 100% chance to make tournament Those odds suck. But let's stop believing once the season is over. What part of your ass did you pull those out of?
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 18:12:05 GMT -5
I was trying to quantify roughly what I meant by my description of how I thought we still have a shot at putting together some wins in the BET, to show I don't have some overly optimistic perspective. People seem to take extreme positions like we have to win the whole thing to make the tournament and that we have absolutely no chance now of even beating DePaul. The only statistical reference I've seen is Pomeroy (for what it's worth) putting us at 98% to beat DePaul. Where would you put our odds?
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Post by FromTheBeginning on Mar 4, 2009 18:19:12 GMT -5
Scenarios, Hypotheticals, Probabililities - all a bunch of bull. The undeniable fact is that we DO NOT DESERVE TO BE IN THE TOURNAMENT unless we by some miracle win the BET. 7-11 teams do not belong in the tournament. A five BET win team does.
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Mar 4, 2009 18:19:54 GMT -5
I'll post more about this after Depaul, but 4 wins in the BET gives us a shot to make it as an at-large. 3 wouldn't unless many many bubble teams with better profiles now collapsed.
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 18:21:22 GMT -5
I was trying to quantify roughly what I meant by my description of how I thought we still have a shot at putting together some wins in the BET, to show I don't have some overly optimistic perspective. People seem to take extreme positions like we have to win the whole thing to make the tournament and that we have absolutely no chance now of even beating DePaul. The only statistical reference I've seen is Pomeroy (for what it's worth) putting us at 98% to beat DePaul. Where would you put our odds? Yeah the idea that we need to win the BET to make the tournament is about as "extreme" as Barbara Bush's current sex life
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 18:25:28 GMT -5
4 BET wins will most likely get us in the tournament. Which Barbara Bush are you referring to -- the grandmother or the daughter? Cause if you're talking about the daughter...
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 21:32:57 GMT -5
Nice to see almost every other bubble team going down as well. Maybe there is hope for a 4 win run to get us in.
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 22:09:01 GMT -5
The way the bubble teams are going down tonight we will be in the discussion if we win 3 games in BET now (depending who the wins come against)
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 4, 2009 23:20:46 GMT -5
That's what I've been saying all day, while all these people have been shooting back we have to win 5 games and that we can't even beat DePaul now. 3-4 wins in BET is a longshot but it's not a "fairytale."
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 4, 2009 23:38:33 GMT -5
The fairytale is thinking we can do it....I was just stating the consequences IF we do so
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 5, 2009 11:30:26 GMT -5
We win 4 or more games we make the tournament. We win 3 games we sweat it out on the bubble. Simple as that. We can do it hoyas.
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hoyarad
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 521
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Post by hoyarad on Mar 5, 2009 11:41:33 GMT -5
Not this year. I'd like for the Hoyas to just play well in the BET. We aren't a tournament team based on our record and performance. Some people will still say we belong in because of our SOS yada yada yada but I think conference record says a lot. If you can't beat the teams you should beat, you're done.
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Hoya50
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 805
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Post by Hoya50 on Mar 5, 2009 12:20:55 GMT -5
Hope? Let me tell you something, my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane. It's got no use for NCAA tourney dreams. You'd better get used to that idea.
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Post by westendhoya on Mar 5, 2009 12:27:42 GMT -5
The way the bubble is unfolding, the committee is going to give special emphasis on the conference tournaments this year. A run to the finals would get us in 100% while a run to the semi-finals would likely make us one of the last teams out yet that could also change depending on the circumstances around the country and the circumstances of our run. Also, looking at the list of 18 teams fighting for the last 8 spots makes me absolutely sick. sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3953853&name=katz_andy
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Post by strummer8526 on Mar 5, 2009 12:32:42 GMT -5
It's good to know we're worse than Tulsa this year.
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Post by hoyafreakinsaxa on Mar 5, 2009 15:27:31 GMT -5
We win 4 or more games we make the tournament. We win 3 games we sweat it out on the bubble. Simple as that. We can do it hoyas. Finally people are starting to agree with me. 4 wins and we make the tournament (i.e. we don't need to win it all). Three wins, we probably don't make it, but there's a chance. I guarantee we put together at least a two game winning streak.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,218
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Post by hoyarooter on Mar 8, 2009 4:16:38 GMT -5
Well, let's see. The seedings are now set, and our opponent, who you either "guarantee" that we will beat, or whom we have a 90% chance of beating, is the same team we couldn't beat despite leading them by 15 in the middle of the second half.
And our second opponent (should there be one), who we have a 50% chance of beating, has already beaten us twice, and is probably a top 20 team. But of course, they lost Dominic James, so we'll clearly have a 50% shot at winning that game.
Care to rethink that position at this point?
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MassHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,786
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Post by MassHoya on Mar 8, 2009 8:37:34 GMT -5
At this point, you would have to think Hoya Pride would kick in at some point. The real frustration has been that we have seen that they can play with a lot of teams, ex. UCONN, Memphis, Nova and really stink against teams or in situations they should dominate, ex St. John, Seton Hall, and an overwhelming inability to finish games. Not from a lack of effort or a lack of coaching, but most probably from a lack of focus.
Whether it takes 4 wins or 5 wins to get to the NCAA, the BET may well be this team's Big Dance. As has been mentioned repeatedly, thte brackets are about as favorable as could be. It would be nice to see them rise to the occasion, regardless of where they end up, and do some damage. It's time.
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Madgesdiq
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,434
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Post by Madgesdiq on Mar 8, 2009 9:37:50 GMT -5
I don't see the brackets as favorable.
I'd be surprised to see us playing on Wednesday.
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SirSaxa
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 747
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Post by SirSaxa on Mar 8, 2009 9:53:36 GMT -5
Have you ever been in a hitting slump? If not, surely you must have watched one of your favorite players go through one, right?
To me, that's where our Hoyas are. In the midst of a team-wide slump. They are simply unable to snap out of it and get their game back together. Personally, I recall one hitting slump that I went through. There was no explaining it. Certainly "trying too hard" was a part of it. But there was no real explanation. It must have been some kind of psychological block. How did I get out of it? A friend pitched to me. Starting with easy tosses, then working up, and suddenly I forgot all about the slump and just started smacking the ball hard all over the place.
Unfortunately, I don't believe our guys are going to be able to recover this season. IMHO, it will take getting away from the game, from the team. get out and play a little pickup, or don't touch a ball for a few weeks. Then they need to start to build up their individual skills and confidence before reassembling as a team, with the coaches -- who also need some time away. And the coaches need to figure out a new approach to get through to these kids. The Princeton doesn't need to change, but the way it is being taught to these kids? That needs to change. Because the aren't getting it.
I hope our kids can just relax. The season is over. There are no expectations. Just go out and have fun! What the heck, there's nothing more to lose at this point! GO HOYAS!
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