GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 22, 2018 18:41:53 GMT -5
I have another idea: let's not under-achieve relative to our recruiting class rankings within the conference.
2017 ended up to 5th (from 10th) with the late additions especially Pickett. 2018 is currently 5th but a late pick up like Akinjo would likely boost us to top 3. Of course, 2016 was 10th and 2015 was actually 3rd. So our 4 year average right now is around 6th. Not great but good enough to compete for the bubble.
From 2011 to 2014 for example our classes ranked 2nd, 1st, 8th (Cameron only), and 1st. The reason our current recruiting "feels" worse is when we were landing top 3 classes consistently, we finished top 3 in the conference three times in 10 years. So it seems like we need the top-ranked class every year just to contend for the postseason. We don't or more precisely, let's hope we don't. Recruiting is on the way up. Landing top 5 classes is key but turning them into top 5 finishes (or better) is more important for momentum.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 22, 2018 10:13:13 GMT -5
Agree. Jagan has some tools that can be a big part of the success of the team next year. Hard work (not to say hes not already putting in extra) this summer can get him in a spot to produce. Never know what can happen with injuries, foul trouble, etc. Jabril Trawick is a recent example of a guard who progressively got better and peaked in his senior year, so later improvement is certainly possible. I really don't see why so many people are so down on Mosely. No, he's not a great ball handling guard, but with McClung coming in (and hopefully another ball handler), I think Mosely will have to do that a smaller percentage of the time. Also, when you look at his shooting, Mosely's numbers actually don't look bad at all. He shot 51.9% from two, and 38.9% from three. He took very few threes, but still, his percentage was pretty high (and did not really suffer in conference play). I think that if we get guards who can actually handle the ball, Mosely's shooting skills will be more evident and useful. Of course, the other main thing Mosely can do is to lessen turnovers. His turnover rate was 28.2 for the season, and 30.7 in Big East play. Even if you kept his shooting percentages steady, if he lowered his turnovers, he'd instantly become an efficient player for us. But that's the problem, he was neither aggressive nor effective. He rarely shot and turned it over a lot. Obviously if he becomes both, he's good but that's anybody. I'm cheering for him because he's intelligent and athletic and you'd think he'd find a fit. I also see why there are skeptics though.
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 22, 2018 9:28:27 GMT -5
My point is that it doesn’t seem tougher to me. UConn was always going to hire a Coach and probably a good one. Because he was the brother of a former Duke PG that poses additional complications? He has done very little in the scheme of things. It could be much, much worse IMHO. Agreed. If you committed to Ollie because of his knowledge of the NBA, Pat is closer than Hurley. He didn't sound like he was married to the school.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 21, 2018 19:12:53 GMT -5
Yeah, 6'0 and 6'2 is not small. It's fairly average especially with Pickett and Blair in the rotation. Shouldn't be a concern.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 21, 2018 17:14:16 GMT -5
Yeah, this thread has quickly gone off track thanks to the typical negative spinning that never seems to cease. Anyway in my opinion with enough growth of this past season's freshman class (which, no, doesn't have to be miraculous), some seasoning for Ewing after a year at the helm and with recruits hopefully adding much needed ball-handling and more depth, I think this Hoya team can finish in the top half of the BE and make it to the tournament. My opinion would possibly be a lot less optimistic if the team had not bee neck-and-neck with tournament level teams for most of the BE regular season. But regardless of that my point was that it is a far less rosy view for next season if either or both Derrickson and Govan do not return. Huge points to DFW for turning your optimism about continuity into a trip down misery lane about lack of continuity. Takes a special kind of eeyore for that.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 16, 2018 23:34:31 GMT -5
UVA doesn't need recruiting. They recruit to their system so they don't need high level athletes to frustrate teams with their discipline. They also have no chance to win the NCAA tournament that way but do they care? Not sure really. They can have plenty of great seasons and if they aren't worried about going for a title, it works.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 15, 2018 22:51:19 GMT -5
Oats: "You can take bigs out of the game in college with the rules."
Well that's bottom lining it.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 15, 2018 8:34:14 GMT -5
Agreed. He's the only Juco we should be considering and is not Mulmore the sequel. Watch some Andres Feliz tubes. He could help us. That top tier of JUCO guards is dominated by guys that transferred out of high majors or mid majors. The JUCO guy YaBoy was talking about a page back is probably even better than these kids. I'll check him out. I started looking into the guards and Mitchell just seemed like obviously the best one even before he moved up to #1. I might have Mulmored some prematurely.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 15, 2018 7:12:58 GMT -5
Mitchell......Imagine the arguments we can have on this one. On one hand, he is the #1 ranked juco player. On the other hand, Mitchell averaged 2.9 points and 0.7 rebounds as a redshirt freshman in 2016. He played in 25 games and averaged 8.8 minutes at Baylor. On one hand, he's the #1 ranked JUCO player. On the other hand, we know he can play high major ball because Baylor fans were upset he left, he wasn't okay with only 8 minutes a game and he wanted the ball in his hands and he wanted to push himself to a higher profile situation. Oh wait, all of that is a good thing. Agreed. He's the only Juco we should be considering and is not Mulmore the sequel.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2018 21:09:29 GMT -5
I think I've watched every Mac video out there. I celebrate the guy's entire catalog. And I've watched a lot of Tremont Waters from last year and some from this year. Here's the thing - saying we need another PG and that we're probably going to need another PG to make the NCAA's isn't a slight against Mac - you can't go into a year with only 2-3 guys capable of taking the ball up the floor (Mosely, McClung, I don't want Blair attacking a press with 2 minutes to go) - one of them being a freshman. You could get completely derailed by foul trouble or injuries. We're losing two ballhandlers in Mulmore and Dickerson, only bringing in one at this point. We need another and we probably don't make the NCAAs without adding another good one who can keep turnovers under control but who can run a play or break a press late in the game. If you're suggesting I should watch the McClung videos because you think they are similar players, they aren't on any level. Waters is a very different player than McClung - he's a really capable scorer, but his court vision and passing are on a level we haven't really seen in a Georgetown uniform since that half season of Kenny Brunner, his handle is amazing, and he's probably a better distance shooter than McClung. I don't think anyone has ever argued against this. We need another point guard. The only issue seems to be whether Tremont would have decomitted regardless of whether the coach was III or Ewing. The consensus seems to be yes. Besides, who needs Tremont when my namesake, Sherewyn (sp), is still out there for the taking. Tremont is a great passing point but any shooting praise loses me a bit. Honestly I don't know if Mac is a great outside shooter (his points are often at the rim) but I'll take the over on the 29.7% Waters shot from three in the SEC for Mac in conference next year.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2018 10:02:35 GMT -5
For what its worth, our KenPom "luck" ranking was 286th in the country. 'Ken Pomeroy describes luck in his blog as “the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.” Said it before and I will say it again, that is not a definition of luck, it is a definition of suck. Sorry if that stings, but underperforming expectations is what it is, can't call it luck, even if you more accurately described it as "bad luck" since it only measures downward deviation. But that's better right? If it were pure luck, it's out of our hands. Instead real improvement even slight can move the needle substantially in results. Which I think is what people are saying.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 14, 2018 6:06:54 GMT -5
LeBlanc starting by BE anyway. If not, it means Johnson has stepped it up. I just don’t see it at this point. Mosely also needs to work. Kaleb I think also has to worry about Walker. Walker was out of position on defense and fouled too much but that's all freshman stuff. The one thing we saw is, he's physical and can shoot. Should be a great competition for frontcourt minutes.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2018 20:49:22 GMT -5
Love the optimism on this board, but let's not set expectations so high that making improvement next season is met with disappointment. Take stock of where we are - 5-13 in the conference, one or two bounces of the ball away from LOSING the SHU, Butler and both SJU games. I understand we were a possession away from some wins too, but don't take for granted the close wins when looking at the close losses. Without a dramatic change at the guard position, where is the improvement coming from? Govan and Derrickson are great, and I expect them to be the best frontcourt tandem in the BE, but we know late in games, they can be taken away. I am not putting too much on McClung. He looks like a scoring point guard, which would be welcomed, but he is just a freshman. Perhaps we pick up a grad transfer? Also, who is going to become an above average defender on this team? The defense was putrid this season, Govan/Derrickson are not going to become defensive stalwarts in their senior seasons. I am sticking with my Buzz Williams/Jay Wright blueprint for next season, I see 7-8 wins in conference being a sign of success. NIT would be solid, NCAAs would be a stretch goal, but possible if the right backcourt pieces fall into place. One clarification: the NCAAs and winning the BE is always the ultimate goal, but we are talking about what to expect. We were 286th in luck per kenpom. So it's not ignoring close wins to say we were close to 6-7 wins in conference or the Syracuse win. It's actually a thing. Now that "luck" might really be experience or guard play or bounces but it was not in our favor regardless.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2018 18:58:51 GMT -5
Mulmore averaged 12ppg in high school, volume scored in Juco and got 4 offers, one high major (guess who?)
Mac had 25 mid-major offers and then jumped on his first high major in August with Rutgers. Two months later "knock knock" who's there?" "Not Rutgers" and BC, Seton Hall, and Georgetown offer the same week. He committed to us and we're probably pretty happy he did because if it plays out after that season I think we can safely say his stock would rise.
The only thing Mac and Mulmore have in common is they both seem like hard workers and they're Hoyas. But that's where any similarities end from a talent perspective.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 13, 2018 10:09:48 GMT -5
We're saying HE'S GOTTEN BETTER. I did as well. But I think you made is seem like his AAU videos were so long ago they didn't matter. I do apologize for calling you a clown and idiot. Like someone else said on his AAU Mac didn't have to be the man, so he took it upon himself to get better at running the point guard position, being more a of a leader which made him a better leader for his team this season (mentally). He always had the gift of being talented. When he played for his high school team he was the man and he knew what he had to do. I think it's every players thing to get better during the off seasons. "It is a data point" as in it does matter. Specifically stated it's part of the assessment, just not the only part. Really have no idea what caused you to go off glide. I agree with you that the assessment shouldn't stop at AAU and that its just a part of the process of development.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2018 17:06:38 GMT -5
No matter where you stand on Mac, I'm not sure how AAU games almost a year old became the gold standard for evaluating him. I get the "well it's better competition" part and that's true but it's also a year ago. The difference between last year and this year for him is a pretty big jump. He averaged 29 a game last year. I think this year his worst game was 26. And he didn't just break a record, he broke everyone's records (Iverson, Tanner, Reddick) and won the state title.
AAU is a data point sure, and if he were overwhelmed by the competition and not just OK, it would be a red flag. But that's not the case and he's clearly a better player now. How much so we'll see.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 11, 2018 18:30:23 GMT -5
I don't think Whitt was a much better ballhandler but he was definitely a better defender and could mix it up a bit inside. But Pickett is actually the better scorer which is a pretty big deal. Whitt was a better defender but also more physically mature than Pickett. I vote Pickett after year one for upside all things considered.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 10, 2018 18:47:38 GMT -5
So here are my impressions from watching Leblanc in the State Championship. (Congrats to him by the way!) Wow. Great player. Pencil him in to start over Caleb Johnson at the 3. He is 6’7” and seemed to me to be primarily a 3/4. He is going to compliment MD and JG really well. Josh can play inside and outside so when MD and JG go outside, JL can slip down low and post up very well. We tried and failed to do this with Johnson on several occasions this year. When MD or JG post up, he seemed comfortable on the perimeter. He made 1 three in the game. He is a phenomenal rebounder. This is going to help us a lot. He can play above the rim and will do well playing with Mac. If we play Mac, Pickett, JL, MD and JG, that would be 4 players 6’7” or taller. That length will put a lot of pressure on opponents. The risk is that line-up might be 3-4 below average defenders. It is going to force Pickett to 1) improve his ball handling to take some of the responsibilities off of Mac, 2) develop or show us a post-up game since he could have 4-6” advantage most nights, and 3) improve his lateral quickness so that he can hold his own defensively and be less of a liability. If we recruit another strong guard, Pickett’s minutes look like the ones that could be at risk based on what I have seen so far. I loved everything I saw except his missed free throws. His % in the game was pretty bad. IMO, adding Mac to Leblanc to the team puts us in the top 1/2 of the conference and back into the NCAAs Couldn't agree more. This was my first time seeing him outside of highlights. I didn't realize how big he was and how disruptive his length is. That's immediately the lineup I thought of as well and nobody has to be terrified of fouling out. LeBlanc could probably play 5 in a pinch. So I think we could be more aggressive on defense and that would help. But yeah, he's good and probably one of the more ready freshmen in the conference.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 10, 2018 17:05:51 GMT -5
A lot of improvement this season from Blair. A lot of good to work on and improve. Needs to shake off the last game and work on ball handling, playing under pressure calmly, stronger passes, improving point skills, and get confidence in a solid calm shot. All good points. And a little defense couldn't hurt. I like that someone mentioned point guard skills. There's this notion that Jagan is more suited for a backup PG role if we don't land another recruit. I disagree. Neither is a point guard naturally but Blair has a bias for action which I think is a mindset you have to have to lead a team. He needs to learn PG skills sure, but so does Jagan but at least you know he won't disappear. Reminded me of Braswell's swagger and goldfish memory at times.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 8, 2018 9:28:39 GMT -5
There is one thing that I think we can all readily agree on re: this year’s team: Ewing’s team was much more fun to watch and plays an uptempo style that is critical to recruiting and playing success moving forward. I don’t disagree that he did a pretty good job with limited pieces, but I am very disappointed that with his name, our desperate needs and our new facility he hasn’t been able to lure an elite guard other than Mac into the fold. I have seen McClung twice this season, and I think he’s both very underrated and a potential college star. But we must have another option there. MUST. Neither Kaleb nor Jagan is an option as a legit second ball handler next season, which leaves you in one heck of a pickle with Mulmore and Dickerson leaving. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we are currently looking at a likely downgrade in the ballhandling category next season. Let that sink in after watching the most TO-prone GU team in decades. Rest assured we will not be looking at that. Our worst TO% offenders in conference play: Mulmore: 34.5% Mosely: 28.3% Dickerson: 23.4% Johnson: 23.0% Then it falls off a cliff to JP at 19% Dickermore is every bit as bad as Mosely. They are the definition of warm bodies as "seniors." LeBlanc has to be disastrous, Pickett and Blair (and even Mosely and Johnson) regress, and Mac put up TO numbers worse than every freshman guard in the past 10 years for us to be worse than this year. That's without another late PG pickup which I'm sure the staff is working on right now. There's this idea that "at least Dickermore can handle the ball." They can't. They just are the most PG-like thing we had.
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