I think it's a 50/50 decision no matter what--you either stay or leave--but I appreciate both guys for giving their insights as of right now.
He's absolutely right. Since there are two options, the probability for each to happen is 50%. It's like a coin flip, you can't say that it's 70-30 that heads will come up. God, it's like these guys never took a statistics class.
"Those who live in the past are cowards and losers" Mike Ditka
I'm surprised by the number of people who feel that Jeff and Roy will make this decision together, or that one's decision will significantly impact the other's...
Sure, these guys are friends and teammates but...they have repeatedly stated that they will make the decision that is best for them individually. They play different positions, are evaluated by NBA scouts based on very different criteria, have different strengths/weaknesses, are at markedly different developmental stages, have different skill ceilings, will be going to different NBA teams with different needs, will go at different stages in the lottery (1-5 possible for Roy, 6-10 probable for Roy/possible for Jeff, 10+ probable for Jeff), have different family situations...like different flavors of ice cream...
Jeff and Roy are acting independently.
"I thought it was good, but I prayed just to make sure it was," said the 7-foot-2 Hibbert.
Ugh...Stop trying to apply statistics here. This is just Jeff's way of saying, at this moment, he's more likely to return to school than leave. Not to say that won't change....Roy is saying he's undecided either way. Judging from some of the color Roy's given, it's clear that he believes top 3 is in his grasp next year -- if he can be guaranteed of that this year (i.e., the Hawks' giving him the Shelden Williams treatment), there's no way he'll wait until next year. Otherwise, if he hears he'll fall down the board a bit, he may come back to Georgetown.
I bet these guys are hearing all kinds of numbers right now...When so many people are talking Top-5, Top-10, Top-This, Top-That, millions of dollars, it's hard not to get caught up in it and stay in the draft. Hasn't anyone walked onto a car lot/Best Buy/open house and purchased something you didn't intend to that day? Obviously you're on site to gather information on something that you plan on buying at some point, but if the deal's good enough, or your impulses/spouse's, family's or friend's support get the best of you, you take the plunge.
Last Edit: Apr 18, 2007 13:27:18 GMT -5 by HoNYaSaxa
Since there are two options, the probability for each to happen is 50%. It's like a coin flip, you can't say that it's 70-30 that heads will come up. God, it's like these guys never took a statistics class.
I always hate myself for doing this, but . . .
Why would the pre-existing condition that there are only 2 outcomes determine the probability of these outcomes?
For a normal die, there is a 1/6 (~17%) probability that any of it's 6 sides will come up. For a loaded die, this isn't the case. Or, let's say you have ten cards, 7 hearts and 3 clubs, shuffled and face down. Before you turn over 1 of the cards, you know it's either a heart or a club (only 2 options), but what are the odd that it's a heart?
For a sillier example, you are either alive or dead. What are the odds that you will be alive tomorrow? By your logic, the odds are 50:50 (only 2 choices). So, since there's a 50% probability that you'll be dead tomorrow, the chances of making it through one month (30 days, therefore 30 50:50 propositions) is 1 in 1,073,741,824 (~a billion to 1).
Last Edit: Apr 18, 2007 13:32:49 GMT -5 by CO_Hoya
Hasn't anyone walked onto a car lot/Best Buy/open house and purchased something you didn't intend to that day? Obviously you're on site to gather information on something that you plan on buying at some point, but if the deal's good enough, or your impulses/spouse's, family's or friend's support get the best of you, you take the plunge.
No idea what you're talking about but if anyone wants to buy my mini-disc player, pm me.
"I thought it was good, but I prayed just to make sure it was," said the 7-foot-2 Hibbert.
I'm surprised by the number of people who feel that Jeff and Roy will make this decision together, or that one's decision will significantly impact the other's...
Sure, these guys are friends and teammates but...they have repeatedly stated that they will make the decision that is best for them individually. They play different positions, are evaluated by NBA scouts based on very different criteria, have different strengths/weaknesses, are at markedly different developmental stages, have different skill ceilings, will be going to different NBA teams with different needs, will go at different stages in the lottery (1-5 possible for Roy, 6-10 probable for Roy/possible for Jeff, 10+ probable for Jeff), have different family situations...like different flavors of ice cream...
Jeff and Roy are acting independently.
They are teammates. We should stop assuming that they are friends. Everyone sees them and says they are both nice guys and great basketball players, they must be good friends. I personally don't think they are. They are NEVER seen together on campus, unless it's the whole team together. They no longer live together -- Jeff, Jon, and Tyler live with Vernon. Watch the NCAA tourney press conferences: They sit right next to each other, say nice things about one another, but hardly ever do they look at each other or speak TO the other guy. People that know both say that they are not friends.
They certainly seem to play well together on the court and I'm not saying I think they openly hate each other or anything, but I strongly doubt that this will come down to Jeff wanting to spend an extra year with Roy, or vice versa.
Jeff's relationship with Jon and Tyler is a whole other story, however.
"Who do you like to win the national championship?" Katz asked.
"I'm going to bet on Georgetown because they're my alma mater," Clinton replied. "I'm loyal, and they're playing great."
Post by ExcitableBoy on Apr 18, 2007 13:50:03 GMT -5
hoyals05 said:
healyhoya said:
I'm surprised by the number of people who feel that Jeff and Roy will make this decision together, or that one's decision will significantly impact the other's...
Sure, these guys are friends and teammates but...they have repeatedly stated that they will make the decision that is best for them individually. They play different positions, are evaluated by NBA scouts based on very different criteria, have different strengths/weaknesses, are at markedly different developmental stages, have different skill ceilings, will be going to different NBA teams with different needs, will go at different stages in the lottery (1-5 possible for Roy, 6-10 probable for Roy/possible for Jeff, 10+ probable for Jeff), have different family situations...like different flavors of ice cream...
Jeff and Roy are acting independently.
They are teammates. We should stop assuming that they are friends. Everyone sees them and says they are both nice guys and great basketball players, they must be good friends. I personally don't think they are. They are NEVER seen together on campus, unless it's the whole team together. They no longer live together -- Jeff, Jon, and Tyler live with Vernon. Watch the NCAA tourney press conferences: They sit right next to each other, say nice things about one another, but hardly ever do they look at each other or speak TO the other guy. People that know both say that they are not friends.
They certainly seem to play well together on the court and I'm not saying I think they openly hate each other or anything, but I strongly doubt that this will come down to Jeff wanting to spend an extra year with Roy, or vice versa.
Jeff's relationship with Jon and Tyler is a whole other story, however.
True, you've proved that Roy & Jeff are not best friends. But they don't have to be in order to influence each other.
Right now there are exactly two Georgetown students who have declared for the draft. Both are juniors, and both have expressed considerable interest in returning for their senior years despite having tremendous earning potential in the NBA next year.
They both (Roy especially) have talked about their desire to win a championship next year. If one guy is leaning towards staying, don't you think he would be leaning on the other guy to stay too? Despite what Twerp fans would have you believe, Jeff & Roy are both capable of seeing that their title chances are better if they are both back than if only one returns.
How would I describe myself? Three words: hardworking, alpha male, jackhammer… merciless… insatiable.
They are teammates. We should stop assuming that they are friends. Everyone sees them and says they are both nice guys and great basketball players, they must be good friends. I personally don't think they are. They are NEVER seen together on campus, unless it's the whole team together. They no longer live together -- Jeff, Jon, and Tyler live with Vernon. Watch the NCAA tourney press conferences: They sit right next to each other, say nice things about one another, but hardly ever do they look at each other or speak TO the other guy. People that know both say that they are not friends.
They certainly seem to play well together on the court and I'm not saying I think they openly hate each other or anything, but I strongly doubt that this will come down to Jeff wanting to spend an extra year with Roy, or vice versa.
Jeff's relationship with Jon and Tyler is a whole other story, however.
True, you've proved that Roy & Jeff are not best friends. But they don't have to be in order to influence each other.
Right now there are exactly two Georgetown students who have declared for the draft. Both are juniors, and both have expressed considerable interest in returning for their senior years despite having tremendous earning potential in the NBA next year.
They both (Roy especially) have talked about their desire to win a championship next year. If one guy is leaning towards staying, don't you think he would be leaning on the other guy to stay too? Despite what Twerp fans would have you believe, Jeff & Roy are both capable of seeing that their title chances are better if they are both back than if only one returns.
Thats certainly a fair point.
"Who do you like to win the national championship?" Katz asked.
"I'm going to bet on Georgetown because they're my alma mater," Clinton replied. "I'm loyal, and they're playing great."
Since there are two options, the probability for each to happen is 50%. It's like a coin flip, you can't say that it's 70-30 that heads will come up. God, it's like these guys never took a statistics class.
I always hate myself for doing this, but . . .
Why would the pre-existing condition that there are only 2 outcomes determine the probability of these outcomes?
For a normal die, there is a 1/6 (~17%) probability that any of it's 6 sides will come up. For a loaded die, this isn't the case. Or, let's say you have ten cards, 7 hearts and 3 clubs, shuffled and face down. Before you turn over 1 of the cards, you know it's either a heart or a club (only 2 options), but what are the odd that it's a heart?
For a sillier example, you are either alive or dead. What are the odds that you will be alive tomorrow? By your logic, the odds are 50:50 (only 2 choices). So, since there's a 50% probability that you'll be dead tomorrow, the chances of making it through one month (30 days, therefore 30 50:50 propositions) is 1 in 1,073,741,824 (~a billion to 1).
I was being sarcastic, making fun of RDF's claim that it's 50-50 for each because there are two options, but thanks for the analysis. Sorry sarcasm doesn't translate well in writing.
"Those who live in the past are cowards and losers" Mike Ditka
Post by bubbrubbhoya on Apr 18, 2007 14:40:07 GMT -5
dajuan said:
cohoya said:
I always hate myself for doing this, but . . .
Why would the pre-existing condition that there are only 2 outcomes determine the probability of these outcomes?
For a normal die, there is a 1/6 (~17%) probability that any of it's 6 sides will come up. For a loaded die, this isn't the case. Or, let's say you have ten cards, 7 hearts and 3 clubs, shuffled and face down. Before you turn over 1 of the cards, you know it's either a heart or a club (only 2 options), but what are the odd that it's a heart?
For a sillier example, you are either alive or dead. What are the odds that you will be alive tomorrow? By your logic, the odds are 50:50 (only 2 choices). So, since there's a 50% probability that you'll be dead tomorrow, the chances of making it through one month (30 days, therefore 30 50:50 propositions) is 1 in 1,073,741,824 (~a billion to 1).
I was being sarcastic, making fun of RDF's claim that it's 50-50 for each because there are two options, but thanks for the analysis. Sorry sarcasm doesn't translate well in writing.
Yeah, I was 50-50 on whether your original post was sarcastic, but since there were two choices, I couldn't make up my mind.
We are...the Beast of the Big East. We are...Georgetown...Georgetown...GEORGETOWN!
CO_Hoya: Yet another reason HoyaTalk will never jump the shark. (Although I have it on very sound authority from RDF that chances are 50:50 that it will, indeed, do so).
I don't think this has been posted yet, or if this will be buried in this thread, but a portion of the Comcast video of Jeff and Roy talking about their decision on whether to turn pro is posted at:
Personally, and I've said this many times before, I don't think they're turning pro, because I think they realize they won't go in the top 3, which is where the real money is. Roy can be number 1 next year (which is mucho bucks), and Jeff should be top 5.
Also, I think they realize they both need to develop some more, and they both want a GU degree and a national championship.
Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Apr 18, 2007 21:10:53 GMT -5
Knowing the questions that prompted some of those statements would be nice.
I mean the questions could have been something like:
"Jeff, you're rumored to be going to Philadelphia or Atlanta - do you feel you can turn those programs around or would you rather come back for your senior year?"
I think it's a 50/50 decision no matter what--you either stay or leave--but I appreciate both guys for giving their insights as of right now.
He's absolutely right. Since there are two options, the probability for each to happen is 50%. It's like a coin flip, you can't say that it's 70-30 that heads will come up. God, it's like these guys never took a statistics class.
Well my sarcasm didn't come through either--should've used a smiley face--but at least it got a good laugh.
So I was checking out ESPN's draft machine, and I ran it about a dozen times. In no scenario did Jeff go above the 13th pick, and Roy never went higher than 10. If that's where they're falling, they could definitely do themselves a favor by coming back. For some reason, I thought they were projected much higher - but if they are late lottery picks, an additional year in college (during which they may well be the most famous players in the college game) will only help them. I'm starting to be more optimistic that at least one of them will be back.
Post by HoyaAtHeart on Apr 20, 2007 8:15:11 GMT -5
guru said:
So I was checking out ESPN's draft machine, and I ran it about a dozen times. In no scenario did Jeff go above the 13th pick, and Roy never went higher than 10. If that's where they're falling, they could definitely do themselves a favor by coming back. For some reason, I thought they were projected much higher - but if they are late lottery picks, an additional year in college (during which they may well be the most famous players in the college game) will only help them. I'm starting to be more optimistic that at least one of them will be back.
And there other mocks that have them anywhere from 4-9. So should they leave if "thats where they're falling"?
ESPN's mock also has Joakim Noah around 3 or 4 and Chase Budinger in the lottery and he hasnt, nor will he declare.
Post by hoyaparanoia1984 on Apr 20, 2007 8:16:10 GMT -5
One thing is for sure about these two young men. There is a considerable amount of pressure on this decision and when they make it, either stay or go, they will probably feel like a cement truck was just lifted off their shoulders.
Hayes sent his starters back in for the final minutes of the 1968 game with Michigan, even though the top-ranked Buckeyes were ahead 44-14. And after fullback Jim Otis scored with 1:23 remaining, Hayes went for two points - on a pass, no less. When asked why he went for two, Hayes reportedly said, "Because we couldn't go for three!" -Woody Hayes
So I was checking out ESPN's draft machine, and I ran it about a dozen times. In no scenario did Jeff go above the 13th pick, and Roy never went higher than 10. If that's where they're falling, they could definitely do themselves a favor by coming back. For some reason, I thought they were projected much higher - but if they are late lottery picks, an additional year in college (during which they may well be the most famous players in the college game) will only help them. I'm starting to be more optimistic that at least one of them will be back.
And there other mocks that have them anywhere from 4-9. So should they leave if "thats where they're falling"?
ESPN's mock also has Joakim Noah around 3 or 4 and Chase Budinger in the lottery and he hasnt, nor will he declare.
If either of them really thinks they are going to go #4, then, yes, they should definitely go. I don't think any mocks will have them that high, though, esp. now with the confirmation of the Oden and Conley news. If I were them, I'd go only if I was convinced I was going to be a top 7 pick. If I was convinced I was top 10, I'd lean heavily toward leaving. But if I though there was a decent possibility I'd fall lower than that (which it seems like there is), I'd lean toward coming back.
Whatever - it's a tough call however you look at it. Just kind of thinking out loud here. Gonna be a long run up to the drop dead decision date
