24-25 Big East Discussion

[rhw485]

I think it's kinda hard to overstate how bad of a start it's been for the Big East generally in non conference play. 

An easy way to show it is looking at Bart Torvik's T-Rank but exclude the preseason projections.  For people who want to check me, just change the date range to start on November 4th as opposed to November 1st.

Team	Season Long TRank	Exclude Preseason	Difference
UConn	12	26	-14
St Johns	17	32	-15
Marquette	23	34	-11
DePaul	106	61	45
Creighton	19	86	-67
Xavier	69	144	-75
Nova	62	159	-97
Seton Hall	101	160	-59
Georgetown	105	179	-74
Providence	73	192	-119
Butler	94	214	-120

Now obviously there's a ton of noise here, these numbers will move wildly with every game played (which is why the season long rank is more stable).  Like I dont think anyone is worried about UConn / St Johns / Marquette / Creighton.  But some other notes

• DePaul is literally the only Big East team that looks to be outperforming preseason expectations
• Appreciate Hoya fans are very excited with the potential of this team and the fact that we won the first two games.  Just a little reminder that beating Lehigh (who lost to Northwestern by 45 and Columbia now) by 8 and Fairfield (who lost to RI by 38 and beat NH by 6) by 12 does not, on its own, imply a ton of progress.  There's tons of reasons to rationalize why those were not blowouts, but good teams blow out bad teams.  
• Butler, Seton Hall, Nova and Providence (who had to sneak by Hampton and Central Conn) potentially joining us and maybe DePaul (not fully bought in yet) in terms of performances means the conference could have a VERY soft bottom.  And yes we all might round robin win games against each other, but for the teams making the tournament any losses to those teams could be bad

The team this most likely to impact is Xavier imo.  Assuming the top 4 continue to separate themselves and show up, Xavier being the 5th team in this version of the Big East will not be an easy sell if they land on the bubble.  They're going to have to punch up and win against that top tier because there's potentially way more real landmines at the bottom

[EtomicB]

Nov 14, 2024 9:56:52 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

I think it's kinda hard to overstate how bad of a start it's been for the Big East generally in non conference play. 

An easy way to show it is looking at Bart Torvik's T-Rank but exclude the preseason projections.  For people who want to check me, just change the date range to start on November 4th as opposed to November 1st.

Team	Season Long TRank	Exclude Preseason	Difference
UConn	12	26	-14
St Johns	17	32	-15
Marquette	23	34	-11
DePaul	106	61	45
Creighton	19	86	-67
Xavier	69	144	-75
Nova	62	159	-97
Seton Hall	101	160	-59
Georgetown	105	179	-74
Providence	73	192	-119
Butler	94	214	-120

Now obviously there's a ton of noise here, these numbers will move wildly with every game played (which is why the season long rank is more stable).  Like I dont think anyone is worried about UConn / St Johns / Marquette / Creighton.  But some other notes

• DePaul is literally the only Big East team that looks to be outperforming preseason expectations
• Appreciate Hoya fans are very excited with the potential of this team and the fact that we won the first two games.  Just a little reminder that beating Lehigh (who lost to Northwestern by 45 and Columbia now) by 8 and Fairfield (who lost to RI by 38 and beat NH by 6) by 12 does not, on its own, imply a ton of progress.  There's tons of reasons to rationalize why those were not blowouts, but good teams blow out bad teams.  
• Butler, Seton Hall, Nova and Providence (who had to sneak by Hampton and Central Conn) potentially joining us and maybe DePaul (not fully bought in yet) in terms of performances means the conference could have a VERY soft bottom.  And yes we all might round robin win games against each other, but for the teams making the tournament any losses to those teams could be bad

The team this most likely to impact is Xavier imo.  Assuming the top 4 continue to separate themselves and show up, Xavier being the 5th team in this version of the Big East will not be an easy sell if they land on the bubble.  They're going to have to punch up and win against that top tier because there's potentially way more real landmines at the bottom

Barring injuries Xavier looks to be the 2nd best team in the conference but I do get your overall point that the BE looks weak this season after the top 5.

[rhw485]

Nov 14, 2024 10:11:42 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Nov 14, 2024 9:56:52 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

Barring injuries Xavier looks to be the 2nd best team in the conference but I do get your overall point that the BE looks weak this season after the top 5.

Appreciate your assessment, I haven't gotten eyes on them yet.  But if you look at what their resume is shaping up to be:

• 3 games in but tough-ish start on computer metrics.  Only beat TSU by 9, IU Indy (ranked 346th!) by 14.  Smoked Jackson State but they're 331st.  It basically was the bare minimum result to not hurt yourself.
• Non-conference schedule has upcoming opportunities but they're interesting: home vs. Wake (2pt faves) on Saturday is huge.  Then neutral vs. South Carolina (2pt dogs), at TCU (6 pt dogs), at Cincinnati (9 pt dogs).  
• No other non-con of consequence, and then you roll into the soft Big East

Now if they really end up finishing 2nd in Big East, none of this will matter.  But lets say they beat Wake and South Carolina and lose to TCU and Cincy.  What Big East record are they going to need?  You're talking about 10 potential wins not being particularly impactful or against teams that aren't even going to be near the bubble.  Will those all stay in Quad 2 or will those teams be Quad 3 at home?  Do they need to go 13-7 / 14-6 in that scenario?  

I hope they take care of business this weekend (and might sprinkle a little action on them to do so)

[EtomicB]

Nov 14, 2024 11:26:54 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

Nov 14, 2024 10:11:42 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Barring injuries Xavier looks to be the 2nd best team in the conference but I do get your overall point that the BE looks weak this season after the top 5.

Appreciate your assessment, I haven't gotten eyes on them yet.  But if you look at what their resume is shaping up to be:

• 3 games in but tough-ish start on computer metrics.  Only beat TSU by 9, IU Indy (ranked 346th!) by 14.  Smoked Jackson State but they're 331st.  It basically was the bare minimum result to not hurt yourself.
• Non-conference schedule has upcoming opportunities but they're interesting: home vs. Wake (2pt faves) on Saturday is huge.  Then neutral vs. South Carolina (2pt dogs), at TCU (6 pt dogs), at Cincinnati (9 pt dogs).  
• No other non-con of consequence, and then you roll into the soft Big East

Now if they really end up finishing 2nd in Big East, none of this will matter.  But lets say they beat Wake and South Carolina and lose to TCU and Cincy.  What Big East record are they going to need?  You're talking about 10 potential wins not being particularly impactful or against teams that aren't even going to be near the bubble.  Will those all stay in Quad 2 or will those teams be Quad 3 at home?  Do they need to go 13-7 / 14-6 in that scenario?  

I hope they take care of business this weekend (and might sprinkle a little action on them to do so)

Admittedly I'm biased toward the offensive side of the game, on that end only Uconn has looked better to me. Defense is what's hurting their metrics thru 3 games.

I haven't seen the teams on their upcoming schedule but I'd be surprised if they lose to SC or TCU so if they can split Wake & Cinnci then they've done well for themselves.


They'll get 14 wins in the conference this year given that they'll probably go 7-1 against SH,Dep, Gtown & Butler. If Hopkins isn't going to be himself the PC won't give them much comp either.

[DanMcQ]

[MCIGuy]

Nov 14, 2024 9:29:05 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Nov 14, 2024 9:10:06 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Hopefully, Sorber is to Villanova what Jason Hart was to Georgetown.

Did Sorber ever visit Nova?

I thought Sorber was a PC lean prior to Cooley & staff coming to Gtown

Pretty sure Villanova was in his final four. He also mentioned how he was a Villanova fan growing up.

[MCIGuy]

Nov 14, 2024 9:10:06 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Hopefully, Sorber is to Villanova what Jason Hart was to Georgetown.

Been thinking the same thing since he committed to Georgetown. But I feel Sorber is the bigger get.

[jackofjoy]

Nov 14, 2024 13:34:08 GMT -5 DanMcQ said:

Fire Danny Hurley!

[EtomicB]

Nov 14, 2024 15:29:06 GMT -5 MCIGuy said:

Nov 14, 2024 9:29:05 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Did Sorber ever visit Nova?

I thought Sorber was a PC lean prior to Cooley & staff coming to Gtown

Pretty sure Villanova was in his final four. He also mentioned how he was a Villanova fan growing up.

www.zagsblog.com/2023/05/17/four-star-2024-center-thomas-sorber-commits-to-georgetown/

Sorber, the 6-foot-9, 250-pound big man from Archbishop Ryan (PA), chose Georgetown over La Salle, Maryland, Miami and Penn State.

[rhw485]

Nov 14, 2024 12:58:14 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

Nov 14, 2024 11:26:54 GMT -5 rhw485 said:

Appreciate your assessment, I haven't gotten eyes on them yet.  But if you look at what their resume is shaping up to be:

• 3 games in but tough-ish start on computer metrics.  Only beat TSU by 9, IU Indy (ranked 346th!) by 14.  Smoked Jackson State but they're 331st.  It basically was the bare minimum result to not hurt yourself.
• Non-conference schedule has upcoming opportunities but they're interesting: home vs. Wake (2pt faves) on Saturday is huge.  Then neutral vs. South Carolina (2pt dogs), at TCU (6 pt dogs), at Cincinnati (9 pt dogs).  
• No other non-con of consequence, and then you roll into the soft Big East

Now if they really end up finishing 2nd in Big East, none of this will matter.  But lets say they beat Wake and South Carolina and lose to TCU and Cincy.  What Big East record are they going to need?  You're talking about 10 potential wins not being particularly impactful or against teams that aren't even going to be near the bubble.  Will those all stay in Quad 2 or will those teams be Quad 3 at home?  Do they need to go 13-7 / 14-6 in that scenario?  

I hope they take care of business this weekend (and might sprinkle a little action on them to do so)

Admittedly I'm biased toward the offensive side of the game, on that end only Uconn has looked better to me. Defense is what's hurting their metrics thru 3 games.

I haven't seen the teams on their upcoming schedule but I'd be surprised if they lose to SC or TCU so if they can split Wake & Cinnci then they've done well for themselves.


They'll get 14 wins in the conference this year given that they'll probably go 7-1 against SH,Dep, Gtown & Butler. If Hopkins isn't going to be himself the PC won't give them much comp either.

As someone who has watched Gtown so closely the last few years, not worrying about defense is certainly a....choice 

[jwp91]

Nova is getting handled by UVA. Hopefully the transitive law of athletics will apply when we play them.

[novafan2]

Villanova is the new DePaul, I watched from a distance how Georgetown had fallen on hard times and now seeing it happen to Nova. Villanova is just incredibly bad this year and will be lucky to win 4 conference games. I think Georgetown is in good hands now with Ed Cooley as he is a massive improvement from Ewing. As long as Villanova stay with Neptune, the program will be at or near the bottom of the Big East standings.

[professorhoya]

Nov 15, 2024 18:56:28 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Nova is getting handled by UVA. Hopefully the transitive law of athletics will apply when we play them.

Stephan A Smith Cackle. How bout them Mediocre Kyle Neptune!
I been telling you he’s mediocre from the beginning.
Lost to a Tony Bennetless, UVA.
It’s Over!

[professorhoya]

Nov 15, 2024 19:51:41 GMT -5 novafan2 said:

Villanova is the new DePaul, I watched from a distance how Georgetown had fallen on hard times and now seeing it happen to Nova. Villanova is just incredibly bad this year and will be lucky to win 4 conference games. I think Georgetown is in good hands now with Ed Cooley as he is a massive improvement from Ewing. As long as Villanova stay with Neptune, the program will be at or near the bottom of the Big East standings.

It’s a shame that Jay Wrights hand picked choice was blocked by that father what’s his name who was infatuated with Medicore Kyle Neptune. It all could have been so different.

The deterioration in the head fakes and pivot foot skills that were second nature to Wrights players is horrifying to see.

[traversb]

Got a bad feeling our conference woes get worse in College Park tonight. Hopefully Butler to hangs on.

[jwp91]

Nov 15, 2024 19:51:41 GMT -5 novafan2 said:

Villanova is the new DePaul, I watched from a distance how Georgetown had fallen on hard times and now seeing it happen to Nova. Villanova is just incredibly bad this year and will be lucky to win 4 conference games. I think Georgetown is in good hands now with Ed Cooley as he is a massive improvement from Ewing. As long as Villanova stay with Neptune, the program will be at or near the bottom of the Big East standings.

You will have a better appreciation for the walk through the desert that we have been on. To go from the top of the world to the bottom of the conference is a tough journey. Fortunately, you still have Eric Dixon who is probably good for a few wins all by himself.

[EtomicB]

Nov 15, 2024 20:01:25 GMT -5 professorhoya said:

Nov 15, 2024 19:51:41 GMT -5 novafan2 said:

Villanova is the new DePaul, I watched from a distance how Georgetown had fallen on hard times and now seeing it happen to Nova. Villanova is just incredibly bad this year and will be lucky to win 4 conference games. I think Georgetown is in good hands now with Ed Cooley as he is a massive improvement from Ewing. As long as Villanova stay with Neptune, the program will be at or near the bottom of the Big East standings.

It’s a shame that Jay Wrights hand picked choice was blocked by that father what’s his name who was infatuated with Medicore Kyle Neptune. It all could have been so different.

The deterioration in the head fakes and pivot foot skills that were second nature to Wrights players is horrifying to see.

Who was the hand-picked choice Professor?

[traversb]

Nov 15, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -5 traversb said:

Got a bad feeling our conference woes get worse in College Park tonight. Hopefully Butler to hangs on.

Very happy to be wrong here. Shaka can flat out coach his tail off. For Marquette only to have 7 turnovers on the road this early in the season is incredible. Definitely shows the value of continuity and a team buying in.

[zxhoya]

Nov 15, 2024 22:31:04 GMT -5 traversb said:

Nov 15, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -5 traversb said:

Got a bad feeling our conference woes get worse in College Park tonight. Hopefully Butler to hangs on.

Very happy to be wrong here. Shaka can flat out coach his tail off. For Marquette only to have 7 turnovers on the road this early in the season is incredible. Definitely shows the value of continuity and a team buying in.

Watched the Marquette @ Maryland and a couple of observations:
Marquette is better than their #15 national ranking and will battle UConn for the BE regular season champion.

Maryland looks to be very talented and deep, and Marquette defeated them on the road in a very hostile environment. Very competitive and entertaining game.

Derrick Queen, I see why he was ranked a 5 Star. Kid can do it all, not overly explosive but very agile and his BBall IQ is next level. He handles and passes like a guard and defends both in the paint and the perimeter, He's 1 and done most likely.

Would have loved to have seen the Scrimmage that we had vs them, Sorber vs Queen.

[jwp91]

If we beat Maryland in a scrimmage, there is a chance we could be pretty good… right?

Same with UVA who beat Nova?