CTHoya08
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Bring back Izzo!
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Post by CTHoya08 on Feb 28, 2020 7:33:51 GMT -5
Probably some helpful results elsewhere? Maybe a road game against MU is just really good for SOS?
One thing that has always bothered me about the "bracketology"/bubble-watch sites is that they often calculate SOS based on games played so far, not full schedule. That results in strange statements like "when we beat South Florida, our RPI got worse, but when we lost to Louisville, it got better." Nonsense. Those games were always on the schedule, and we were always going to get the SOS hit or benefit from playing them. Obviously conference tournaments are a wild card, but if the goal is to predict where teams will be for tournament selection and seeding, a "snapshot" of SOS is a dumb thing to look at. (I suspect that the bracket sites with better track records are already accounting for "future" SOS in order to provide more accurate predictions.)
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hoyaduck
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Hoya Saxa
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Post by hoyaduck on Feb 28, 2020 14:14:22 GMT -5
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Feb 28, 2020 15:12:24 GMT -5
Kill this thread. It’s over. 👎🏻
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DanMcQ
Moderator
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 29, 2020 7:19:52 GMT -5
Reads like somebody who finally got around to watching FS1 halftime show reruns then forgot to credit Steve Lavin who brought this up first.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 29, 2020 13:06:28 GMT -5
Kill this thread. It’s over. 👎🏻 Now, now - if we win the next 3 we have a chance! *ducks*
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 29, 2020 14:17:08 GMT -5
Bad start of the day if you are a bubble team. Not as bad if you are the Hoyas.
NC State hangs on to beat Pittsburgh, almost a huge loss for NC State. Texas beats Texas Tech in Lubbock Texas. A huge road win for Shaka Smart, who may have saved his job, probably not. Providence beats Nova in Nova. Luwane Pipkins showed up in a big way. And Gus Johnson calling that game was beautiful. He needs to call NCAA tournament games. Bt, that's beside the point.
This Texas win also may have given the Hoyas another, much needed Q1 win. 5-11 is much better than 4-11. If you don't think the Hoyas can beat Creighton, like a sane person, but have some delusional hope they can take the two home games, you need as many Q1 wins as possible. Texas and SMU moving up would be huge. Beating nova and losing @creighton would make us 7-12 against Q1 if SMU and Texas win games and stay above net 75 and 50 respectively. At this point, you need help. Winning on your own won't to it since they can't beat Creighton. 2-1 and one BE win could do it if the metrics rise significantly and these teams climb up the ranks, and the committee looks at the injuries and actually realizes this team is better with its guys. That's the most likely outcome to make the tourney. We're gonna need some help. But, you also have to take care of business tomorrow. If they don't, well create a new thread titled "NIT bid?"
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 29, 2020 14:39:18 GMT -5
Bubble teams (in Bold) playing now and until four
Florida at Tennessee Oklahoma at West Virginia Mississippi State at Missouri Western Carolina at ETSU
Games after four:
UMASS at Richmond Arkansas at Georgia Arizona State at UCLA Arizona at UCLA Duke at UVA Northern Iowa at Drake
And probably more, I might have missed some.
Other teams the Hoyas should root for:
Oklahoma State over Iowa State, Oklahoma State needs to stay above net #75 to stay as a good win UNCG over Chatanooga, UNCG needs to stay above NET #75 to avoid that becoming a bad loss
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Feb 29, 2020 16:38:21 GMT -5
FWIW, SMU is 15-1 at home this season.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 29, 2020 16:58:23 GMT -5
FWIW, SMU is 15-1 at home this season. Will always have the SMU game to look back fondly on. And it was witnessed by a former president!
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 29, 2020 21:39:21 GMT -5
Bubble teams (in Bold) playing now and until four Florida at TennesseeOklahoma at West Virginia Mississippi State at Missouri Western Carolina at ETSUGames after four: UMASS at RichmondArkansas at GeorgiaArizona State at USCArizona at UCLADuke at UVANorthern Iowa at Drake And probably more, I might have missed some. Other teams the Hoyas should root for: Oklahoma State over Iowa State, Oklahoma State needs to stay above net #75 to stay as a good win UNCG over Chattanooga, UNCG needs to stay above NET #75 to avoid that becoming a bad loss Underlined winners. Adding some commentary: Arkansas probably popped their bubble. Unless the committee values injuries, they are done for. Isaiah Joe going down was the killer. I don't know how many more games they'd have won with him, but him playing today and them still losing to UGA hurts. They'd have to do real damage in the conference tourney to stand a chance. ETSU survives on a late shot to beat Western Carolina. ETSU is a really, really good team. They deserve to safely be in the tourney, but they probably need to take two in the SOCON tourney to be an at-large.UNCG losing really hurts. They probably fall below NET #75 after their loss at Chattanooga. They get the Mocs again to open the SoCon tourney, and ideally take that one and the game over Furman in the next round, to keep the NET over 75. Oklahoma pretty much locked themselves into an NCAA bid after that. Also, West Virginia is like legit bad now. They are a team to pick against in the first round almost regardless of opponent. UVA is also basically a lock. Very nice to see Duke losing to two unranked teams in the same week. Just beautiful. Huff sealed the game with multiple huge defensive plays including a huge block on Vernon Carey late, one of his 10 blocks on the day. Of the games left, USC looks to be beating Arizona State, which is probably the ideal outcome? USC would only get a Q2 win vs ASu getting a q1 win. USC has a so-so resume at best and some luck and huge wins, they are very jumpable. EDIT: USC WIN UCLA is the Providence of the west. Mick Cronin is back. And, they play Arizona as a member of the first four out. We want Arizona to win, but I think the fighting Mick Cronin's of UCLA steal this one. EDIT: Yep, UCLA WIN Also, to bring in the conversation on something I've seen on other threads, a shooter like Jake Kyman who can get really hot and hits open shots, a pure shooter, would work well on a Ewing team. Plus, he's not going to be someone demanding a consistent spot on the rotation, so the minutes would work out better. Just a thought.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by mdtd on Mar 1, 2020 0:22:16 GMT -5
Bubble teams (in Bold) playing now and until four Florida at Tennessee Oklahoma at West Virginia Mississippi State at Missouri Western Carolina at ETSUGames after four: UMASS at RichmondArkansas at Georgia Arizona State at UCLAArizona at UCLADuke at UVANorthern Iowa at Drake And probably more, I might have missed some. Other teams the Hoyas should root for: Oklahoma State over Iowa State, Oklahoma State needs to stay above net #75 to stay as a good win UNCG over Chatanooga, UNCG needs to stay above NET #75 to avoid that becoming a bad loss I forgot to include: Memphis winning at Tulane and more importantly: Utah State losing to New Mexico. Utah State is a really talented team, but probably needs to beat San Diego State to make the tournament. Which would only happen in the final. So, most likely this Utah State team falls off of the bubble. However *ducks* I think they win the MWC.
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kbones17
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Post by kbones17 on Mar 1, 2020 3:27:08 GMT -5
Bubble teams (in Bold) playing now and until four Florida at Tennessee Oklahoma at West Virginia Mississippi State at Missouri Western Carolina at ETSUGames after four: UMASS at RichmondArkansas at Georgia Arizona State at UCLAArizona at UCLADuke at UVANorthern Iowa at Drake And probably more, I might have missed some. Other teams the Hoyas should root for: Oklahoma State over Iowa State, Oklahoma State needs to stay above net #75 to stay as a good win UNCG over Chatanooga, UNCG needs to stay above NET #75 to avoid that becoming a bad loss I forgot to include: Memphis winning at Tulane and more importantly: Utah State losing to New Mexico. Utah State is a really talented team, but probably needs to beat San Diego State to make the tournament. Which would only happen in the final. So, most likely this Utah State team falls off of the bubble. However *ducks* I think they win the MWC. I don’t think you need to duck. We are barely hanging on by a thread of the NIT bubble at this point. I commend you for following this as closely as you are but it ain’t going to make a difference for us.
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mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by mdtd on Mar 1, 2020 12:51:07 GMT -5
I forgot to include: Memphis winning at Tulane and more importantly: Utah State losing to New Mexico. Utah State is a really talented team, but probably needs to beat San Diego State to make the tournament. Which would only happen in the final. So, most likely this Utah State team falls off of the bubble. However *ducks* I think they win the MWC. I don’t think you need to duck. We are barely hanging on by a thread of the NIT bubble at this point. I commend you for following this as closely as you are but it ain’t going to make a difference for us. I genuinely enjoy following this, so this is nothing. But, I'd say the Hoyas are safely in the NIT as like a #3 or #4 seed as of now. Also, Utah State played San Diego State close twice. And they are really good. Though, it's not really the smartest thing to say after they blow a lead to New Mexico without two or three of their best players (they collapsed since losing everyone), so I ducked. Still ducking. If there's really no chance, like after a loss today, I probably won't post stuff here but I'd still follow it.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 1, 2020 17:50:23 GMT -5
FWIW, SMU is 15-1 at home this season. SMU just blew a 24 point lead with 13 minutes left to take away this one good thing we had going from this season.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Mar 4, 2020 6:22:35 GMT -5
Texas is actually making a case for a bid now. They are potentially getting into Top 50 territory and our neutral site win would become Q1. Sigh.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Mar 5, 2020 12:50:48 GMT -5
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Mar 5, 2020 15:12:48 GMT -5
When you’re on bubble watch for the NIT you know you are close to rock bottom, especially from a power conference. 😷
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Mar 6, 2020 15:15:54 GMT -5
For the NIT watchers: the first NIT auto bid (most likely) will be Northern Iowa. After their loss to Drake, they probably don't have enough on their resume to be an NCAA at-large team. Very talented team though. Second is Radford. Guards win games in March. Jermaine Marrow did just that. 36-10
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Mar 7, 2020 14:24:01 GMT -5
Amazing to think 2 weeks ago that SJU would be playing in the NIT and we won't but that is looking more and more likely though I wonder if they would do that if we beat them on Wednesday.
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Post by bicentennial on Mar 7, 2020 15:29:56 GMT -5
Here's hoping that yurt are mac are available to go Wednesday and that the rest of the team feels playing 30 minutes instead of 40 is just like going to a practice for 4 days next week. I wonder if Coach Patrick Ewing can get a pep talk from kemba before the tournament starts! UConn proved it could be done and then it was 5 games not just 4! I realize I probably need a good shrink for trying to stay optimistic this season!
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