daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,342
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 22, 2020 12:27:51 GMT -5
Ugh PC is looking strong against Marquette. My fear is even if we find a way to go 8-10, PC might steal our spot (unless Xavier fades).
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2020 16:29:08 GMT -5
Providence has really improved. But the real question is Purdue. With the loss today, they are 14-14 with three games left. Their numbers are excellent, but the results aren't because they are 4-11 vs Q1 with two Q3 losses. The Big Ten has very good metrics, which is really keeping some teams, like Purdue alive. Purdue has one Q1 game left, at Iowa. They have two Q2 games left, being home to Indiana and Rutgers, two bubble teams. If Purdue goes 2-1, they will finish the regular season 16-15. I don't know the stat off of the top of my head, but I don't think there has been a team with 16 losses that has made the tournament in the last 10 years. So unless Purdue wins their next three games, or goes on some miraculous run in the B10 tourney, I don't think they make it.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,342
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 22, 2020 17:29:53 GMT -5
Ok State beating up on Oklahoma. Very good result for us if it holds.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2020 18:10:25 GMT -5
Oklahoma just got destroyed. Now 1-10 against Q1. And that should improve the NET of Oklahoma State. Very good result for us. No idea how anyone could say Oklahoma is an at-large, especially after this.
While UCLA really looks like a bid stealer. They just beat Colorado in Boulder. UCLA is officially a team to monitor very closely.
|
|
hoyas315
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,096
|
Post by hoyas315 on Feb 22, 2020 19:42:26 GMT -5
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2020 19:45:52 GMT -5
Overtime in Davidson. CBSSN. Davidson just missed an FT to go up 4 and Rhode Island hits a three. Davidson winning would help.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,342
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 22, 2020 19:46:06 GMT -5
How is Oklahoma still not only in, but not even last 4 in?! And Xavier?Still safely in? 1 legit win over SHU. If you follow BracketMatrix you’ll note Lunardi has been far from the best.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 22, 2020 20:12:09 GMT -5
Overtime in Davidson. CBSSN. Davidson just missed an FT to go up 4 and Rhode Island hits a three. Davidson winning would help. Davidson held on to beat Rhode Island by 2. Rhode Island now has two big games against St. Louis and Dayton before the conference tournament.
|
|
lda05816
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 606
|
Post by lda05816 on Feb 22, 2020 22:56:41 GMT -5
Like most of us, I was extremely bummed after the loss Wednesday. It was a chance to take a strong step towards a bid. With that said, I think our current situation is quite interesting. I believe (and have seen mock brackets which agree) that we would be in if the tournament was selected today and not have to play in the first 4 even. The skepticism we have comes from whether we have enough gas in the tank and if Yurt/Mac are healthy enough to win enough down the stretch for a bid. It’s going to be difficult but a bid is very much still in play. Winning tomorrow night is almost a must given the Midwest road trip that is coming up. I’m not ready to give up hope yet. Sigh ok I’ve given up hope. 5th straight year left out of March Madness.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 23, 2020 1:18:06 GMT -5
It's very grim. 3-1 would because you would have to beat two ranked teams, and one on the road. 2-2 might with two wins in the BET or maybe just one if you get a committee that loves emphasizing quality wins, you win some big games, Mac returns and would play in the tournament and you get a committee that will actually look at injuries and weigh them as they did for that Notre Dame team a few years back. Oh and in that situation, there are no bid thieves or the bubble just collapses. So very slim. Very slim. I'm probably being a little pessimistic right now because this loss just really hurts, so it's probably best that we wait for Monday/Tuesday to see what the experts are saying about our chances but they are very slim. When is the last time a team was allowed in being four games under .500 in conference play?
There are still some big games tomorrow for the bubble, so while the thread lives, I may add some input on those games. IU vs Penn State is huge. For those of you still hoping for delusion and something drastically going our way, Penn State winning would help.
Overall, I'd say a 5-10% chance the Hoyas make it. At most.
|
|
|
Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 23, 2020 7:42:30 GMT -5
This won't drop us as far as you think. At least for now, it's still a Q1 loss. The larger problem is we are running out of time and winnable games.
Three out of four would almost surely do it given the wins it would take to get there. But how possible is winning any three of our last four?
Winning two out of four and then getting two wins in NY I think likely also does it.
Two out of four and then 1-1 in NY? Eesh. I'd hold out hope on Selection Sunday but it would be tough.
Win the next one and we can start talking again.....
|
|
rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
|
Post by rhw485 on Feb 23, 2020 9:31:36 GMT -5
This won't drop us as far as you think. At least for now, it's still a Q1 loss. The larger problem is we are running out of time and winnable games. Three out of four would almost surely do it given the wins it would take to get there. But how possible is winning any three of our last four? Winning two out of four and then getting two wins in NY I think likely also does it. Two out of four and then 1-1 in NY? Eesh. I'd hold out hope on Selection Sunday but it would be tough. Win the next one and we can start talking again..... I know it's Q1 loss (and more solidly a Q1 as their net will go up after beating us) but don't be surprised if we're off the page of next 4 out on a lot of monday bracket releases. Losing to a 1-win team in conference will subjectively move us down more than the metrics might. 55 in both NET and KenPom doesn't cut it
|
|
cthoya16
Century (over 100 posts)
Posts: 112
|
Post by cthoya16 on Feb 23, 2020 9:35:27 GMT -5
As bad as it looks with losing provy and DePaul, which were both very winnable games to put us in a good spot for a bid. I won’t quit on the season until the players have. This bunch post-defections has earned the support of the fan base by playing hard every single night regardless of how undermanned. Until we are eliminated from the BET this isn’t over.
I hope we can find away to steal one of the creighton / Marquette games and beat Xavier at home, anything can happen in that nova game. If we can play ourselves back on the bubble for the BET, i know this team will fight with all it has to make a little run at MSG. Get Jagan to the dance!!!
|
|
|
Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 23, 2020 10:15:39 GMT -5
This won't drop us as far as you think. At least for now, it's still a Q1 loss. The larger problem is we are running out of time and winnable games. Three out of four would almost surely do it given the wins it would take to get there. But how possible is winning any three of our last four? Winning two out of four and then getting two wins in NY I think likely also does it. Two out of four and then 1-1 in NY? Eesh. I'd hold out hope on Selection Sunday but it would be tough. Win the next one and we can start talking again..... I know it's Q1 loss (and more solidly a Q1 as their net will go up after beating us) but don't be surprised if we're off the page of next 4 out on a lot of monday bracket releases. Losing to a 1-win team in conference will subjectively move us down more than the metrics might. 55 in both NET and KenPom doesn't cut it Agree, next four out is best case scenario. Probably need the Marquette game just to get back near the cutline.
|
|
daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,342
|
Post by daveg023 on Feb 23, 2020 11:58:50 GMT -5
I just hope we can make the NIT. Based on what I’ve seen the last two games we aren’t beating anyone other than maybe Xavier that we have left. We are just gassed and out of answers.
The Butler game might be an aberration (we went 10-15 from 3). The St Johns game we were mighty lucky they collapsed. Really in my mind this team since Jan 1, has really only shown we are a tournament caliber team in the wins against Creighton and Butler, and even a good showing in defeat to Marquette. I think we’re fooling ourselves if we think this depleted roster has any chance of winning the remaining games at Marquette or Creighton or at home versus Nova.
Listen, I thought the season was over after the defections in December. Then we had a mini surge. I then feared it was over when we dropped to 1-3 in conference play and were non competitive in the losses. But this team hung around a lot longer than I thought, getting to Presidents Day still in the mix for a bid.
But it really was smoke and mirrors. I never really felt it was sustainable without even knowing Mac and Yurt would miss some of our most crucial games to stay above the fray given our tough final four contests.
I give Ewing credit for keeping the team together, stringing together a few wins, making adjustments, etc. But at the end of the day this roster is just too flawed and injured to think that we can compete with the bulk of the BE who are all Top 35 teams. If you took Nova or Creighton’s 4 best guys off their opening day roster, I don’t think they’d be faring much better than us. Effort and chemistry can only go so far.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 23, 2020 12:31:21 GMT -5
Indiana is beating up on Penn State right now.
Indiana Won.
|
|
hoyainla
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Suspended
Posts: 4,719
|
Post by hoyainla on Feb 23, 2020 14:36:02 GMT -5
Indiana all but locks up their spot in the tourney with the win today. That is one of the teams that we are comparable with that made a coaching change when we did.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 23, 2020 14:43:23 GMT -5
Indiana all but locks up their spot in the tourney with the win today. That is one of the teams that we are comparable with that made a coaching change when we did. Pretty much. I was completely wrong about them. They played a very good first half of offense. I still don't trust this team in the tournament, but I was wrong about them getting there.
|
|
mdtd
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,567
|
Post by mdtd on Feb 23, 2020 14:46:11 GMT -5
SMU also fell to a Q2 game yesterday. Yesterday was a good day to be a bubble team that won. But it was a really bad day to be the Hoyas.
|
|
Nevada Hoya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 18,431
|
Post by Nevada Hoya on Feb 23, 2020 15:02:01 GMT -5
It seems as if the only way to make the NCAAs is by winning the BET, which is extremely unlikely with our depleted lineup. So sad because our preseason hopes were very good. The only way we wouldn't make it was the we lost some important players to transfer and a couple of critical injuries. Who would know!
|
|