mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 23, 2020 20:26:45 GMT -5
USC falls to Utah. USC now has its first Q2 loss to 90th Utah on the road. USC is now 2-7 against Q1 and 6-1 against both Q2 and Q3. This should drop their NET a good bit, too. Probably our first good result since last night's game.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 25, 2020 20:18:15 GMT -5
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jester
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Post by jester on Feb 26, 2020 15:14:01 GMT -5
Of teams that have 4+ Q1 wins and 9+ combined Q1 Q2 wins, all are ranked in AP 25 or receiving votes except for :
Oklahoma (0 Q3/Q4 losses) SOS 32 Georgetown (0 Q3 /Q4 losses) SOS 21
Providence (4 Q3 /Q4 losses) SOS 11 NC State (3 Q3 /Q4 losses) SOS 72
Will be interesting to see how we compare to those teams 3 games from now. Not out of it yet. Note: Providence, NC state, Oklahoma are last 4 in in Lunardi brackets.
Also of note, those teams beat ranked teams recently.
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jester
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Post by jester on Feb 26, 2020 15:22:39 GMT -5
Also of similar note, Texas Tech (NET 21) profile vs Gtown is:
Q1 3-9 vs 4-10 Q2 4-1 vs 5-2 Q3 3-0 vs 1-0 Q4 8-0 vs 5-0 SOS: 93 vs 21 Road: 3-6 vs 4-5
Which is to say 7-10 vs Q1/Q2 vs 9-12 vs Q1/Q2, and 11-0 vs Q3/Q4 vs 6-0 Q3/Q4.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 15:32:19 GMT -5
Our metrics stink. Definitely not out of it yet, but those it needs to be fixed. A NET of 59 won't cut it. Of the four teams you listed, the Hoyas have the worst NET, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rating. Those are the metrics the committee will at least look at, along with SOR, which the Hoyas edge out Providence for second to last.
A win tonight could change all that and give another Q1A win, but as of now, the metrics are terrible for a bubble team.
All of those teams also now have a better Q1 record than the Hoyas with NC State being 5-4, Providence being 7-8 and Oklahoma going to 4-9. The Hoyas sit at 4-10 against Q1, as SMU fell to 81 in the NET.
As of now, Oklahoma's resume as good as the Hoyas or better in every category, except road record. NC State has a huge advantage in Q1 record, but has three Q3 losses and is 4-4 against Q2. But, they have better metrics and a just as good if not better road record (5-6 for NC State vs 4-5 for the Hoyas). Their huge advantage against Q1 really puts them over the top. Providence has the Q1 advantage, the H2H advantage (though it really is just a last resort tiebreaker), better metrics and a better Q2 record. Providence is punished for their bad losses, but being 10-8 against Q1 and Q2 will be very hard to deny. Especially for a team that has worse metrics and lost H2H matchups twice.
A win tonight could improve the metrics and with some help from our opponents (Texas jumping 16 spots or dropping 10 to make Oklahoma lose a Q1 win, SMU jumping 6 spots, DePaul not falling two ranks and St. John's not falling 5 ranks) really boost the resume. But for now, the Hoyas have to win games and pick up their play.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 15:36:22 GMT -5
Also of similar note, Texas Tech (NET 21) profile vs Gtown is: Q1 3-9 vs 4-10 Q2 4-1 vs 5-2 Q3 3-0 vs 1-0 Q4 8-0 vs 5-0 SOS: 93 vs 21 Road: 3-6 vs 4-5 Which is to say 7-10 vs Q1/Q2 vs 9-12 vs Q1/Q2, and 11-0 vs Q3/Q4 vs 6-0 Q3/Q4. I think Texas Tech has one of the most overrated resumes right now, right next to Duke. But again, the same problem as before. Their metrics absolutely destroy ours. They are 38 spots higher in the NET, 15 better in SOR, 52 spots ahead in BPI, 35 spots higher in KenPom and 48 spots higher in Sagarin. While their wins aren't impressive, those numbers really are.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 26, 2020 15:44:35 GMT -5
Also of similar note, Texas Tech (NET 21) profile vs Gtown is: Q1 3-9 vs 4-10 Q2 4-1 vs 5-2 Q3 3-0 vs 1-0 Q4 8-0 vs 5-0 SOS: 93 vs 21 Road: 3-6 vs 4-5 Which is to say 7-10 vs Q1/Q2 vs 9-12 vs Q1/Q2, and 11-0 vs Q3/Q4 vs 6-0 Q3/Q4. I think Texas Tech has one of the most overrated resumes right now, right next to Duke. But again, the same problem as before. Their metrics absolutely destroy ours. They are 38 spots higher in the NET, 15 better in SOR, 52 spots ahead in BPI, 35 spots higher in KenPom and 48 spots higher in Sagarin. While their wins aren't impressive, those numbers really are. We have four quality wins starting us in the face. It’s a long shot but if we take 3, we might be deserving of these breakdowns. Otherwise these comparisons are moot
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 26, 2020 15:45:57 GMT -5
Our metrics stink. Definitely not out of it yet, but those it needs to be fixed. Especially the metrics. A NET of 59 won't cut it. Of the four teams you listed, the Hoyas have the worst NET, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rating. Those are the metrics the committee will at least look at, along with SOR, which the Hoyas edge out Providence for second to last. A win tonight could change all that and give another Q1A win, but as of now, the metrics are terrible for a bubble team. All of those teams also now have a better Q1 record than the Hoyas with NC State being 5-4, Providence being 7-8 and Oklahoma going to 4-9. The Hoyas sit at 4-10 against Q1, as SMU fell to 81 in the NET. As of now, Oklahoma's resume as good as the Hoyas or better in every category, except road record. NC State has a huge advantage in Q1 record, but has three Q3 losses and is 4-4 against Q2. But, they have better metrics and a just as good if not better road record (5-6 for NC State vs 4-5 for the Hoyas). Their huge advantage against Q1 really puts them over the top. Providence has the Q1 advantage, the H2H advantage (though it really is just a last resort tiebreaker), better metrics and a better Q2 record. Providence is punished for their bad losses, but being 10-8 against Q1 and Q2 will be very hard to deny. Especially for a team that has worse metrics and lost H2H matchups twice. A win tonight could improve the metrics and with some help from our opponents (Texas jumping 16 spots or dropping 10 to make Oklahoma lose a Q1 win, SMU jumping 6 spots, DePaul not falling two ranks and St. John's not falling 5 ranks) really boost the resume. But for now, the Hoyas have to win games and pick up their play. This, unfortunately, is pretty much dead on. It's almost nail in the coffin time. A win tonight would keep the flame alive.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 15:52:42 GMT -5
I think Texas Tech has one of the most overrated resumes right now, right next to Duke. But again, the same problem as before. Their metrics absolutely destroy ours. They are 38 spots higher in the NET, 15 better in SOR, 52 spots ahead in BPI, 35 spots higher in KenPom and 48 spots higher in Sagarin. While their wins aren't impressive, those numbers really are. We have four quality wins starting us in the face. It’s a long shot but if we take 3, we might be deserving of these breakdowns. Otherwise these comparisons are moot Based on these quality games left, two MAY get it done with some good luck around us, our metrics really improving and a good BE showing.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 26, 2020 18:41:50 GMT -5
Sorry folks, was out of the country on vacation until late last night. It was probably for the best that I didn't have access to watch FS1 on Saturday night.
2/25 Bracket Matrix update has the Hoyas 3rd team out (higher than I thought we'd be), in 18/126 brackets (14%). Lag doesn't appear to be an issue either; Hoyas are in 9/52 of brackets (17%) updated 2/25 and 9/74 of brackets (12%) updated 2/24. The bigger problem is that the last team in (NC State) appears in 95/126 brackets (75%), so it will likely take more than just one win tonight to jump those 3 spots to get back onto the right side.
Tonight's games to track:
Bubble: 9 seed: Virginia won at Virginia Tech 9 seed: Florida vs. LSU 10 seed: Rhode Island won at Fordham 12 seed (top AQ): ETSU won at Wofford 12 seed (second AQ): UNI won vs. Evansville 1st team out: Stanford vs. Utah 2nd team out: Richmond won at GW 4th team out: Arkansas vs. Tennessee
BE: St. John's loss at Nova
OOC: Samford loss at Western Carolina American won vs. Lafayette Penn State won vs. Rutgers (a pretty big game for us with Rutgers in free fall towards the cut line) UNCG loss vs. Furman UMBC loss vs. Binghamton Syracuse won at Pitt
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Eurostar
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Post by Eurostar on Feb 26, 2020 21:39:12 GMT -5
All you guys are wasting time on these metrics. It comes down to wins and losses. Can't keep losing games and get in to the tournament. Usually need 20 wins to get in. I don't care what the metrics say, but you cant lose to Depaul (bottom of BE) and call it an ok loss because it was on the road.
This team unfortunately is going to end up like many of the Hoyas teams in the past 5 years where we lose the vast majority of our games in February/March. At least we have an excuse this year.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 26, 2020 22:53:19 GMT -5
Can we change this to NIT watch? We prob need to win 1-2 more to even get a spot.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 22:57:26 GMT -5
Believe it or not, losing by 21 will hurt your metrics. You can say this wasn't the best possible result.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 26, 2020 23:09:43 GMT -5
Think we need at least 2 wins for an NIT bid, including NYC Wed. I hate admitting this, but even without an NCAA berth this year, at least that would be an understandable result given what has transpired on/off the court this season.
Less than that? There are some difficult conversations that will have to happen in about 3 weeks.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 23:18:46 GMT -5
I think two would almost lock in NIT berth considering they got rid of the .500 rule, of course, it depends on the NIT auto bids though.
And sticking to the thread title, NCAA hopes are virtually as dead as dead can be. But, if you are delusional enough, if the team goes 2-1 and wins two in MSG, there's a very good argument. Considering wins would have to come either @creighton or home to Nova AND Neutral to SHall/Nova/Creighton and St. Johns. 3-0 isn't happening though. I can guarantee that.
So.. take that as you will. I will still pay attention to the NCAA bubble because I think it's fun. But the Hoyas are a "Next Four Out" caliber team with dwindling opportunities and the opposition finally winning games.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 26, 2020 23:32:29 GMT -5
Minnesota's tournament collapse has been worse than ours. So there's that.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 26, 2020 23:54:58 GMT -5
I think two would almost lock in NIT berth considering they got rid of the .500 rule, of course, it depends on the NIT auto bids though. And sticking to the thread title, NCAA hopes are virtually as dead as dead can be. But, if you are delusional enough, if the team goes 2-1 and wins two in MSG, there's a very good argument. Considering wins would have to come either @creighton or home to Nova AND Neutral to SHall/Nova/Creighton and St. Johns. 3-0 isn't happening though. I can guarantee that. So.. take that as you will. I will still pay attention to the NCAA bubble because I think it's fun. But the Hoyas are a "Next Four Out" caliber team with dwindling opportunities and the opposition finally winning games. 2-1 and two wins in MSG would make it interesting on paper. Unfortunately, Hoyas haven't won two consecutive games without a full week of rest since UMBC and Samford. And there are no such layoffs remaining on the schedule.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 27, 2020 0:09:57 GMT -5
I think two would almost lock in NIT berth considering they got rid of the .500 rule, of course, it depends on the NIT auto bids though. And sticking to the thread title, NCAA hopes are virtually as dead as dead can be. But, if you are delusional enough, if the team goes 2-1 and wins two in MSG, there's a very good argument. Considering wins would have to come either @creighton or home to Nova AND Neutral to SHall/Nova/Creighton and St. Johns. 3-0 isn't happening though. I can guarantee that. So.. take that as you will. I will still pay attention to the NCAA bubble because I think it's fun. But the Hoyas are a "Next Four Out" caliber team with dwindling opportunities and the opposition finally winning games. 2-1 and two wins in MSG would make it interesting on paper. Unfortunately, Hoyas haven't won two consecutive games without a full week of rest since UMBC and Samford. And there are no such layoffs remaining on the schedule. Yep. Not likely at all. Which is precisely why it is for the more delusional crowd. I don't see it happening. I think the best chance is getting really lucky and hoping the committee overlooks games like this where Mac and Omer didn't play and pulls a Notre Dame a few years back. Except, there are no bid stealers so we'd actually make the tourney, unlike that Notre Dame team.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 27, 2020 13:44:21 GMT -5
I have no delusions of NCAAs but a win against X and StJs should secure a NIT bid for Jiggy...I could see this team gritting out a few Ws in the NIT...🙏🏾
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 27, 2020 16:22:55 GMT -5
I feel this is the best place to put this. How did the Hoyas NET increase after yesterday's disaster?
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