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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 6, 2020 9:48:45 GMT -5
Yes, yes, I know. The chances don't seem overly wonderful, given all that's working against us. But I thought I'd create a thread where discussions on this topic can be centralized and updated. After all, the season is unequivocally a success if we qualify, right?
As of games played 2/5, here's our profile:
Record vs. Q1: 4-9 (SMU, OK St., St. J. and Creighton) Record vs. Q2: 3-1 (Cuse, Texas, St. J.) Record vs. Qs 3-4: 6-0 SOS: 14 Other computer rankings considered by committee: Average of 54.
SMU, OK. St., and St. J. just barely sneak in as Q1. Truly just barely. So, once you dig in, our profile isn't quite as good as the numbers above indicate. We could easily be 1-9 in Q1 and 6-1 in Q2 tomorrow.
Still....we're right there. Just for comparison sake, the last four teams that get in the field per Lunardi's most recent bracket (I'm just using that to pick four teams that seem like competitors right now....I know he's not the most accurate): Miss. St., Purdue, VCU, and Memphis.
Miss. St. is 1-6 against Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, and 10-2 otherwise. Hard not to prefer our profile at this moment in time.
VCU is 1-4 vs. Q1 and 2-2 vs. Q2. Virtually all their wins are against Qs 3-4. Hard not to prefer our profile there too.
Memphis is 1-3 vs. Q1 and 4-1 vs. Q2. 11 of 16 wins against Qs 3 and 4. At worst, we're competitive there.
Purdue has a better profile than we do. They just had a blowout Q1 win last night -- 4-7 now in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. The computer rankings really like them too.
Bottom line: We have 8 regular season games left. All are quadrants 1 or 2. Even if we get unlucky and SMU, OK St, and StJ drop to Q2 wins, if we go 5-3, that would almost certainly do it.
I think 4-4 may well do it, though in that scenario we may need one or two of SMU, OK St. and St J to stay as Q1 wins. If they did, we'd end up with at least four Q1 wins (no other team would have more), a better Q2 record, fewer bad losses, and a better schedule than any team we'd be up against. I know our overall and conference records would be highly suspect, but it'd be really hard to keep us out given those variables.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 6, 2020 9:51:28 GMT -5
Yes, yes, I know. The chances don't seem overly wonderful, given all that's working against us. But I thought I'd create a thread where discussions on this topic can be centralized and updated. After all, the season is unequivocally a success if we qualify, right? As of games played 2/5, here's our profile: Record vs. Q1: 4-9 (SMU, OK St., St. J. and Creighton) Record vs. Q2: 3-1 (Cuse, Texas, St. J.) Record vs. Qs 3-4: 6-0 SOS: 14 Other computer rankings considered by committee: Average of 54. SMU, OK. St., and St. J. just barely sneak in as Q1. Truly just barely. So, once you dig in, our profile isn't quite as good as the numbers above indicate. We could easily be 1-9 in Q1 and 6-1 in Q2 tomorrow. Still....we're right there. Just for comparison sake, the last four teams that get in the field per Lunardi's most recent bracket (I'm just using that to pick four teams that seem like competitors right now....I know he's not the most accurate): Miss. St., Purdue, VCU, and Memphis. Miss. St. is 1-6 against Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, and 10-2 otherwise. Hard not to prefer our profile at this moment in time. VCU is 1-4 vs. Q1 and 2-2 vs. Q2. Virtually all their wins are against Qs 3-4. Hard not to prefer our profile there too. Memphis is 1-3 vs. Q1 and 4-1 vs. Q2. 11 of 16 wins against Qs 3 and 4. At worst, we're competitive there. Purdue has a better profile than we do. They just had a blowout Q1 win last night -- 4-7 now in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. The computer rankings really like them too. Bottom line: We have 8 regular season games left. All are quadrants 1 or 2. It'd really help if SMU, OK St and StJ stay as Q1 (or at least two of them do). Regardless, 5-3 would very likely do it. I think 4-4 may well do it, though we'd probably need one or two of SMU, OK St. and St J to stay as Q1 wins. If they did, we'd likely have more Q1 wins, a better Q2 record, fewer bad losses, and a better schedule than any team we'd be up against. I know our overall and conference records would be highly suspect, but it'd be really hard to keep us out given those variables. 5-3 is not out of the realm of possibility. We'd need to play great and get lucky.
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rhw485
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Post by rhw485 on Feb 6, 2020 10:17:48 GMT -5
I know the bubble is going to move a lot between today and selection sunday. The thing I can't get past is that the Big 10 has to start cannibalizing itself. It's so many teams that are all going to keep playing each other. I realize that keeps their SOS strong but if a few teams takesa bunch of the losses then they'll start to give up spots.
Now whether the Big East or ACC (only 3 teams in at most places) takes those spots is a different discussion. I'm not sure there's as many "bid thieves" scenarios as that needs mid major teams that would get in on their own. Dayton and Gonzaga jump out but I'm not sure there's as many as normal.
I do think this is where our non-con will help us. when in doubt I feel like the teams with a stronger non-con SOS get the benefit of the doubt. I still think it needs to be 8-10 not 7-11 but how we get to the 8 might matter less to need one at BE Tourney.
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vv83
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Post by vv83 on Feb 6, 2020 10:25:06 GMT -5
From a 'glass half full' perspective: over the last two games, our ball movement and overall defensive schemes/performance have been a significant improvement over previous Big East play. It has been our terrible shooting that has been the problem. We have missed a ton of good shots over the last two games. The terrible starts are of course the other issue. But if we can continue to move the ball on offense and play the level/style (mixing up schemes effectively) that we have displayed in the last two games - winning another 4 or 5 conference games down the stretch is definitely in play. we just need to hit more open/good shots, and get off to better starts.
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Post by wponds on Feb 6, 2020 10:27:41 GMT -5
Gotta get these two DePaul wins and payback against Providence. Then one/two of @ butler, @marquette, @creighton, Xavier, and Nova
It's doable, but margin for error is pretty thin. Gotta keep on fighting
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njhoya78
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 6, 2020 10:37:44 GMT -5
In my opinion...NCAA isn't happening unless this team is playing at the Garden on Friday night. Really no margin for error at this point.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 6, 2020 11:05:02 GMT -5
This thread makes me really sad to think how Pat really blew it with his scheduling last year. That team last year was a tournament team both in skill and results. From a gaming the system perspective this years schedule was almost perfect. I guess we can be thankful he figured it out.
As for this year I think our schedule will keep us in the conversation but when the committee actually takes a look at our resume and sees that as of right now we have 1 win over a tourney team it will do us in. Getting 4 wins over DePaul, providence and Xavier likely knocks them out which wouldn’t help that. It’s going to be very hard for us To finish in the Top 6 of the BE standing which will hurt from an optics stand point as well. We really need to get to 8 wins and then a win in the BET to really feel good.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 6, 2020 11:49:48 GMT -5
In my opinion...NCAA isn't happening unless this team is playing at the Garden on Friday night. Really no margin for error at this point. That may feel right when one looks at our results in a vacuum. But....we have to get to 68 teams somehow. If we get 4 or 5 more wins, I just don't know if there are enough teams having anything better than we do.
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joey0403p
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Post by joey0403p on Feb 6, 2020 12:30:58 GMT -5
Gonna be hard this year but not impossible
Think the eye test of our overall record will be tough in the ene
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 6, 2020 12:34:01 GMT -5
I think it's more on the record too. The committee is unlikely to select a team that is four games under .500 in conference play. Even with the resume, it's just really unlikely. Or the committee isn't taking a team that's record is three games above .500 overall. WThe record matters too.
That being said, 5-3 is the target. Winning five games is going to be huge. 4-4 could work, but at this point, it matters who those teams are (i.e. a win @ Butler carries much more significance in this case, so that would be a near must-win for tourney hopes at 4-4) AND winning at least one, most likely two at MSG. But at 5-3 it's going to be difficult to deny that team an NCAA tournament berth. But, it's about winning those games. Especially the ones you should win, like this weekend.
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95hoya
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Post by 95hoya on Feb 6, 2020 12:43:46 GMT -5
No chance. It's a bad team that has more losses in front of them.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 6, 2020 12:59:51 GMT -5
We win the next four: Depaul, butler, Providence, @depaul... Lose at Marquette, beat Xavier at home, lose at Creighton, beat Nova at home. That is 6-2. Highly unlikely. Let's say we drop the butler and Nova home game. That is 4-4. Probably on the wrong side and needing a strong BET. It is absolutely doable. We could win or lose any of these games as I think Seton Hall was our toughest match up followed by Nova. The NCAA stinks this year. There is basically Baylor, Gonzaga, and then the field. This is a great year to just try to scrap in because a sweet 16 birth is a matter of a few bounces going your way vs. overwhelming talent. Is it bad for me to cheer the downfall of UNC this year? Anthony is going to go pro and they will have gotten nothing from him for the effort.
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DFW HOYA
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Post by DFW HOYA on Feb 6, 2020 13:06:55 GMT -5
We win the next four: Depaul, butler, Providence, @depaul... Lose at Marquette, beat Xavier at home, lose at Creighton, beat Nova at home. That is 6-2. Highly unlikely. Let's say we drop the butler and Nova home game. That is 4-4. Probably on the wrong side and needing a strong BET. The good news is that, even with six/seven on the roster, there is no team it can't compete with. But the three point shooting is a major barrier to success. Missing 17 of 21 from three was the difference in Wednesday's game.
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hoyasaxa2003
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 6, 2020 18:20:12 GMT -5
I think it's more on the record too. The committee is unlikely to select a team that is four games under .500 in conference play. Even with the resume, it's just really unlikely. Or the committee isn't taking a team that's record is three games above .500 overall. WThe record matters too. It's not frequent, but this has happened before. Kansas State 1990 (17-14), Villanova 1991 (16-14), Georgia 2001 (16-14). Unless I am missing any, those are the only at larges to make the tournament with either 2 or 3 games above .500. That said, with the conference schedules growing to 20 games in many instances, and teams playing better schedules, I think it's inevitable that the lower at larges will end up with worse records in coming years (not to mention the 68 team field offering more chances than in the past).
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 6, 2020 18:52:00 GMT -5
We are a bit unlucky that Ok State has been awful since our win there. Also we totally played well enough to win one of Marquette or Butler and with either of those our standing today feels a lot different. Five wins is the bar. For what it’s worth TeamRankings.com says if we get to 18 wins (five more) are chances of being in are 66%. With 17 wins it’s only 21%, and this doesn’t take into account any optics of conference record or standing (which I think are totally in play), so these might even be overstated. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/georgetown-hoyas/bracketologyCan we sweep DePaul and beat PC, Xavier and win one more? Yes. But unlikely as this team just isn’t consistent enough nor has the margin for error for inevitable foul trouble, injury, bad bounces, fatigue, etc. Four wins will just not be enough. A 7th place BE team that’s 17-14 entering the BET, with it’s only win against a tournament team being Creighton, won’t cut it, even with a weak bubble.
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Post by michaelgrahmstylie on Feb 6, 2020 19:45:31 GMT -5
One game at a time.
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seaweed
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Post by seaweed on Feb 6, 2020 20:10:43 GMT -5
In my opinion...NCAA isn't happening unless this team is playing at the Garden on Friday night. Really no margin for error at this point. If this comes about because we ended Myles Powell’s BEast career on Thursday night getting revenge against the Hall, I am OK with that scenario.
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 7, 2020 11:07:16 GMT -5
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 7, 2020 11:59:18 GMT -5
Cinci came up with a big win at Wichita St. last night, which will likely pull them up into the field on the Matrix at next update. However, Tulsa's bad loss to UConn at home should drop them below us. Even with a crummy 3-7 conference record, the computer numbers that this team earned by playing a tough schedule is keeping us in the conversation at likely no worse than last 4-8 out. bracketmatrix.com/
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Bigs"R"Us
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Post by Bigs"R"Us on Feb 7, 2020 15:08:36 GMT -5
If we lose Saturday, we drop to 3-8. We would then need to finish 6-1 to end at .500. NCAA doesn’t look promising.
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