mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2020 12:44:10 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix as of last night has us in 91/116 brackets (78%), good for third to last team in (ahead of both AQs UNI and ETSU). Of course, this will be expected to drop after last night's defeat. However, I would not expect us to drop further than first four out by the time we take the court against Depaul. Thursday's games to track, with several key P12 games: Bubble: 9 seed: St. Mary's vs. Loyola Marymount 10 seed: Wichita St. vs. USF 10 seed: USC at Colorado10 seed: Arizona St. vs. Oregon11 seed AQ: UNI at Indiana St. 4th team out: Stanford at Washington OOC: Georgia St. at UT-Arlington These are the two most important in my eyes, and by a long shot. USC needs quality wins badly and has the opportunity tonight. I think ASU has a quality resume and a win tonight could solidify that. UNI is a team to monitor in Arch Madness and one that I think is really talented. But if USC loses tonight, home to Arizona is their last chance to get three q1 wins. None of those are Q1A wins and one is @#69 Oregon State, which very well could fall under Q2 by the end of the season. I really don't like USC's resume and I think a loss tonight puts them even lower. It would be hard to take a team with 2 Q1 wins and a slightly better NET than one with 5Q1 wins and a slightly worse NET. Another thing to monitor with UNI and bid stealers more specifically is how the committee this year is built. I remember seeing this somewhere, but the committee historically takes more mid-major teams when the committee chairs are overwhelmingly from Mid Major conferences. I think this year is a mid-major group, so bid stealers are going to be present this year. We have to hope that is minimized.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 20, 2020 21:27:22 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix as of last night has us in 91/116 brackets (78%), good for third to last team in (ahead of both AQs UNI and ETSU). Of course, this will be expected to drop after last night's defeat. However, I would not expect us to drop further than first four out by the time we take the court against Depaul. Thursday's games to track, with several key P12 games: Bubble: 9 seed: St. Mary's vs. Loyola Marymount 10 seed: Wichita St. vs. USF 10 seed: USC at Colorado10 seed: Arizona St. vs. Oregon11 seed AQ: UNI at Indiana St. 4th team out: Stanford at Washington OOC: Georgia St. at UT-Arlington These are the two most important in my eyes, and by a long shot. USC needs quality wins badly and has the opportunity tonight. I think ASU has a quality resume and a win tonight could solidify that. UNI is a team to monitor in Arch Madness and one that I think is really talented. But if USC loses tonight, home to Arizona is their last chance to get three q1 wins. None of those are Q1A wins and one is @#69 Oregon State, which very well could fall under Q2 by the end of the season. I really don't like USC's resume and I think a loss tonight puts them even lower. It would be hard to take a team with 2 Q1 wins and a slightly better NET than one with 5Q1 wins and a slightly worse NET. Another thing to monitor with UNI and bid stealers more specifically is how the committee this year is built. I remember seeing this somewhere, but the committee historically takes more mid-major teams when the committee chairs are overwhelmingly from Mid Major conferences. I think this year is a mid-major group, so bid stealers are going to be present this year. We have to hope that is minimized. I understand what you’re saying for the good of Georgetown- but for the good of the sport I will hope “mid-majors” (I hate that term) actually get some at-large bids; which will probably still be far fewer than deserved.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2020 21:28:15 GMT -5
Northern Iowa lost at Indiana State tonight. That might just end their at-large bid.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 20, 2020 21:30:25 GMT -5
Early but ASU and USC both up in their games.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 20, 2020 21:31:55 GMT -5
Northern Iowa lost at Indiana State tonight. That might just end their at-large bid. An underratedly huge result. Need these one bid conferences to stay one bid at all costs.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2020 21:41:57 GMT -5
These are the two most important in my eyes, and by a long shot. USC needs quality wins badly and has the opportunity tonight. I think ASU has a quality resume and a win tonight could solidify that. UNI is a team to monitor in Arch Madness and one that I think is really talented. But if USC loses tonight, home to Arizona is their last chance to get three q1 wins. None of those are Q1A wins and one is @#69 Oregon State, which very well could fall under Q2 by the end of the season. I really don't like USC's resume and I think a loss tonight puts them even lower. It would be hard to take a team with 2 Q1 wins and a slightly better NET than one with 5Q1 wins and a slightly worse NET. Another thing to monitor with UNI and bid stealers more specifically is how the committee this year is built. I remember seeing this somewhere, but the committee historically takes more mid-major teams when the committee chairs are overwhelmingly from Mid Major conferences. I think this year is a mid-major group, so bid stealers are going to be present this year. We have to hope that is minimized. I understand what you’re saying for the good of Georgetown- but for the good of the sport I will hope “mid-majors” (I hate that term) actually get some at-large bids; which will probably still be far fewer than deserved. I'm typically team mid-major actually. Northern Iowa is more talented, in my mind than any of the other bubble teams. But, a few bad nights and I don't see them getting an at-large. And I think it's inexcusable for major conference teams to have weak schedules and still get the benefit because of their conference. Especially because teams are less likely to schedule a mid-major than they would be either a low major or a high major. ETSU is another team I think is significantly better than some of these teams. I was team Belmont and UNCG at large last year. I still think UNCG is a top 50 team in the country. I wasn't trying to add an opinion to the mid-major section, that's just something I read that I think is really interesting and is something to consider. It was from a bracketologist by the name of Rusty Tutton who got 68/68 teams in the tournament right but wasn't great in seeding. It was from a Reddit AMA and I somehow found where I saved this, so I'll share exactly what he wrote. When asked: "How much do you study the tendencies of the committee to predict the field?" He responded with (VCU fan by the way, in case that adds bias): "So I wrote about this before last season. When Creighton moved to the Big East in 2013, the representation of the selection committee moved from 6 mid-majors/4 Power conferences to 5 from mids, 5 from power schools. This had a huge impact on the teams that were selected. From 2014-2018, the power conference members on the committee basically formed a unified front. Look at the last four in from 2013 and 2014. 2013 Boise State (Mountain West) La Salle (Atlantic 10) Middle Tennessee (Conference USA) Saint Mary's (West Coast Conference) 2014 Xavier (Big East) NC State (ACC) Tennessee (SEC) Iowa (Big Ten) After Creighton AD's tenure on the committee expired, they were replaced with another true mid major. So starting last year, the balance shifted back to 6 of 10 members being from mids. This is 100% the reason why Belmont was included and UNC Greensboro was the first team out. If Oregon hadn't won the P12 title, UNCG would have also made it." Just something to consider in m mind. This guy seems to think it has a significant effect on who is selected and with his perspective on this, I have to at least consider his take. It's something we should keep track of.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2020 22:41:53 GMT -5
Northern Iowa lost at Indiana State tonight. That might just end their at-large bid. An underratedly huge result. Need these one bid conferences to stay one bid at all costs. A10, SoCon, MWC, AAC and MVC With this loss, it may take the MVC out of potential bid stealing. UNI is going to be on the bubble at best if they win out and lose in the Arch Madness final to someone like Loyola (Chi). Also, UNI is the worst matchup of bubble teams for the Hoyas in the first four. A slower-paced team that can shoot the lights out. It would not be a fun game. I think that leaves four conferences A10: Dayton is getting in. Rhode Island is on the bubble and has opportunities left. They are a potential at-large, on the right side now and go at Davidson (q2 borderlineish Q1) and home to Dayton. Richmond is right on the bubble, first out in the Matrix, but only has one Q2 game left. You have those two teams and St. Louis (just can't shoot free throws, Davidson and VCu as potential bid stealers. SoCon: ETSU seems to be an at-large if their only loss is in the conference tourney final. UNCG and Furman are bubble teams. One will get a quality win in the conference tourney and that may be enough to bring an at-large. If not, they are still very capable of stealing a bid. ETSU is really good. MWC: San Diego State is a heavy favorite. Utah State is a bubble team that has real talent, but no opportunities left. Neemias Queta and Sam Merrill are excellent players. One good game against San Diego State (they've played two solid halves, just not in the same game) and they are stealing that bid. Monitor Nevada and their star Jalen Harris. Also, keep an eye on this Colorado State team. They've been solid recently and have solid guards and a big man who cleans up the glass. AAC: Cincy and Wichita State are on the bubble. After Cincy's bad loss last night, waved off at the buzzer, they have a Providence like resume. Wichita St seems too solid to miss the tourney in my eyes. And Houston is virtually a lock to make it. Tulsa is a team that has shown flashes, as is Memphis and SMU. I'd say the AAC is most likely to have a bid thief. I'd say these are all reasonable to expect. The A-10 is about teams that haven't performed to expectations and could open up, much like last year. The SoCon has UNCG playing Furman on Wednesday. That game is gigantic for the bubble. That game is going to determine a lot. UNCG already beat them once, if they do it again it may be a two-bid SoCon. The MWC has been dominated by San Diego State. I feel that SDSU always starts slow, but they put it together. Very good team ball. But, it's hard to beat quality teams three times.
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hoyaduck
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Post by hoyaduck on Feb 20, 2020 23:00:12 GMT -5
Sad week for this hoyaduck
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 20, 2020 23:43:55 GMT -5
An underratedly huge result. Need these one bid conferences to stay one bid at all costs. A10, SoCon, MWC, AAC and MVC With this loss, it may take the MVC out of potential bid stealing. UNI is going to be on the bubble at best if they win out and lose in the Arch Madness final to someone like Loyola (Chi). Also, UNI is the worst matchup of bubble teams for the Hoyas in the first four. A slower-paced team that can shoot the lights out. It would not be a fun game. I think that leaves four conferences A10: Dayton is getting in. Rhode Island is on the bubble and has opportunities left. They are a potential at-large, on the right side now and go at Davidson (q2 borderlineish Q1) and home to Dayton. Richmond is right on the bubble, first out in the Matrix, but only has one Q2 game left. You have those two teams and St. Louis (just can't shoot free throws, Davidson and VCu as potential bid stealers. SoCon: ETSU seems to be an at-large if their only loss is in the conference tourney final. UNCG and Furman are bubble teams. One will get a quality win in the conference tourney and that may be enough to bring an at-large. If not, they are still very capable of stealing a bid. ETSU is really good. MWC: San Diego State is a heavy favorite. Utah State is a bubble team that has real talent, but no opportunities left. Neemias Queta and Sam Merrill are excellent players. One good game against San Diego State (they've played two solid halves, just not in the same game) and they are stealing that bid. Monitor Nevada and their star Jalen Harris. Also, keep an eye on this Colorado State team. They've been solid recently and have solid guards and a big man who cleans up the glass. AAC: Cincy and Wichita State are on the bubble. After Cincy's bad loss last night, waved off at the buzzer, they have a Providence like resume. Wichita St seems too solid to miss the tourney in my eyes. And Houston is virtually a lock to make it. Tulsa is a team that has shown flashes, as is Memphis and SMU. I'd say the AAC is most likely to have a bid thief. I'd say these are all reasonable to expect. The A-10 is about teams that haven't performed to expectations and could open up, much like last year. The SoCon has UNCG playing Furman on Wednesday. That game is gigantic for the bubble. That game is going to determine a lot. UNCG already beat them once, if they do it again it may be a two-bid SoCon. The MWC has been dominated by San Diego State. I feel that SDSU always starts slow, but they put it together. Very good team ball. But, it's hard to beat quality teams three times. Yes, definitely need either Houston or Wichita St. to win the AAC. I worry less about the UNCG/Furman/ETSU group combining for two bids. A Utah State loss between now and early in the conference tournament would do wonders for us. So many of these bubble teams (even B10 ones) have so few Q1 opportunities left. A lot of times its either 1 or none. We have a minimum of 3 and possibly 4 remaining. Our fate is still very much in our hands.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 21, 2020 12:14:43 GMT -5
Like most of us, I was extremely bummed after the loss Wednesday. It was a chance to take a strong step towards a bid. With that said, I think our current situation is quite interesting. I believe (and have seen mock brackets which agree) that we would be in if the tournament was selected today and not have to play in the first 4 even. The skepticism we have comes from whether we have enough gas in the tank and if Yurt/Mac are healthy enough to win enough down the stretch for a bid. It’s going to be difficult but a bid is very much still in play. Winning tomorrow night is almost a must given the Midwest road trip that is coming up. I’m not ready to give up hope yet.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 21, 2020 12:41:30 GMT -5
A10, SoCon, MWC, AAC and MVC With this loss, it may take the MVC out of potential bid stealing. UNI is going to be on the bubble at best if they win out and lose in the Arch Madness final to someone like Loyola (Chi). Also, UNI is the worst matchup of bubble teams for the Hoyas in the first four. A slower-paced team that can shoot the lights out. It would not be a fun game. I think that leaves four conferences A10: Dayton is getting in. Rhode Island is on the bubble and has opportunities left. They are a potential at-large, on the right side now and go at Davidson (q2 borderlineish Q1) and home to Dayton. Richmond is right on the bubble, first out in the Matrix, but only has one Q2 game left. You have those two teams and St. Louis (just can't shoot free throws, Davidson and VCu as potential bid stealers. SoCon: ETSU seems to be an at-large if their only loss is in the conference tourney final. UNCG and Furman are bubble teams. One will get a quality win in the conference tourney and that may be enough to bring an at-large. If not, they are still very capable of stealing a bid. ETSU is really good. MWC: San Diego State is a heavy favorite. Utah State is a bubble team that has real talent, but no opportunities left. Neemias Queta and Sam Merrill are excellent players. One good game against San Diego State (they've played two solid halves, just not in the same game) and they are stealing that bid. Monitor Nevada and their star Jalen Harris. Also, keep an eye on this Colorado State team. They've been solid recently and have solid guards and a big man who cleans up the glass. AAC: Cincy and Wichita State are on the bubble. After Cincy's bad loss last night, waved off at the buzzer, they have a Providence like resume. Wichita St seems too solid to miss the tourney in my eyes. And Houston is virtually a lock to make it. Tulsa is a team that has shown flashes, as is Memphis and SMU. I'd say the AAC is most likely to have a bid thief. I'd say these are all reasonable to expect. The A-10 is about teams that haven't performed to expectations and could open up, much like last year. The SoCon has UNCG playing Furman on Wednesday. That game is gigantic for the bubble. That game is going to determine a lot. UNCG already beat them once, if they do it again it may be a two-bid SoCon. The MWC has been dominated by San Diego State. I feel that SDSU always starts slow, but they put it together. Very good team ball. But, it's hard to beat quality teams three times. Yes, definitely need either Houston or Wichita St. to win the AAC. I worry less about the UNCG/Furman/ETSU group combining for two bids. A Utah State loss between now and early in the conference tournament would do wonders for us. So many of these bubble teams (even B10 ones) have so few Q1 opportunities left. A lot of times its either 1 or none. We have a minimum of 3 and possibly 4 remaining. Our fate is still very much in our hands. I might have to add the Pac-12 to the list based off of how well UCLA is playing recently. That's something to monitor for sure. Could be exactly like last years Oregon team.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 21, 2020 12:50:55 GMT -5
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 21, 2020 13:21:33 GMT -5
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 21, 2020 14:01:09 GMT -5
www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology?wjbLunardi released his and we are first four out. Though, I think our resume is very comparable to UVA and Indiana and is better than Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and USC. Here's why: While the Hoyas have a worse record than all of these teams, the Hoyas have a better Q1 record than all of these teams. USC is 2-7 vs. Q1, Oklahoma is 1-9 and Cincy is 2-5. The Hoyas have as many Q1 wins as these guys combined, with twelve fewer losses. Cincy's is the only record that's close to ours and that's in half as many games. The Hoyas had a tougher NCSOS than 2 of the three teams (Cincy is 25 compared to our 50 according to warrennolan, but has 0 Non-conference Q1 wins) and a better SOS than all of these three. The Hoyas also have the best win of the three at Butler. Cincy's NET is 56, Oklahoma is 46 and USC is 44. The Hoyas have a better NET than Cincy and aa better Q1 record. Cincy is an impressive 7-0 against Q2, but a whopping 5-4 against Q3. Does Cincy's better record against Q2 and better NCSOS, outweigh their worse Q1 record, slightly worse NET, FOUR bad losses, and worse SOS? Oklahoma again has ONE Q1 win. Oklahoma has one impressive win. They are 8-1 against Q2 which is impressive but doesn't outweigh their horrible performances against good teams. Another big win and it at least would make sense to me. A top tier expert in this, Brad Evans, formerly of Yahoo and ranked #20 in the bracket matric, said this about Oklahoma. *Note Evans has us as an 11 seed, outside of the first four.* Here's Brad Evans's Big Board docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SGzOC1oX7_BUQ9ql7mQ-MbP9QuoTBgYa9_sHxlmGK4c/edit#gid=326221186As for USC, they have two Q1 wins with one being at 73. That is in serious danger of falling down to Q2. USC has a solid 6-0 record vs Q2, but a bad loss at home to Temple. USC has a solid road record and a better NET. USC has a Q1 opportunity against Arizona a week from yesterday, one that they may need. USC's weaker SOS and NCSOS, plus lack of Q1 wins should ave them below the Hoyas in my eyes. This one is the closest to me, though. USC has a better NET and shares a .500 road record with the Hoyas, with a solid q2 record, but I still don't see that being better than the Hoyas.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 21, 2020 16:18:51 GMT -5
Light Friday slate, but two games of interest:
Bubble: 8th team out: VCU loss at Saint Louis (VCU's at-large hopes are done now if they weren't already)
OOC: Mt. St. Mary's loss at Robert Morris
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Feb 21, 2020 16:22:16 GMT -5
Just wanted to say thanks to RockawayHoya and those of you that keep this updated with relevant info. Very convenient to be able to come to one spot and get an up to date picture of where we stand and our rooting interests in other games.
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jester
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Post by jester on Feb 21, 2020 20:05:09 GMT -5
BYU vs Wichita State in first round in Lunardi bracket.
Less Q1 victories than Hoyas combined. Their best wins combined are :
Houston (lower than Creighton and Butler) Oklahoma state UConn Utah State (lower than Creighton and Butler)
Also have 6 Q2 losses.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 21, 2020 22:20:11 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix is updated through 2/21: Hoyas are now the first team out, included in 42/93 (45%) of brackets. Richmond is the last team in at 58/93 brackets, but I would say Cincinnati (4th to last team in) at 51/93 brackets but with a higher average seed is the true last team in. It's as close as it can get to the cut line right now for us.
A win tomorrow should put us back on the right side, no question.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 21, 2020 22:57:34 GMT -5
Saturday's games to track for the bubble:
Bubble: 9 seed: Rhode Island loss at Davidson 9 seed: Florida loss at Kentucky 9 seed: St. Mary's won vs. San Diego 10 seed: Arizona St. won vs. Oregon St. 6th to last team in: Virginia won at Pitt 3rd to last team in: NC St. loss vs. Florida St. Last team in: Richmond loss at St. Bonaventure 2nd team out: Purdue loss vs. Michigan 3rd team out: Mississippi St. loss at Texas A&M 6th team out: Arkansas won vs. Missouri 7th team out: Alabama won at Ole Miss 8th team out: Memphis won vs. Houston
BE: Marquette loss at 5th to last team out: Providence Nova won at 9 seed: Xavier
OOC: Texas won at Kansas St. Samford loss vs. ETSU (big for both our SOS and to damage ETSU's at-large hopes) SMU loss at Tulsa Oklahoma St. won vs. 10 seed: Oklahoma (doubly important to maintain a Q1 win and hurt another bubble team) Central Arkansas won vs. Nicholls St. Georgia St. loss at Texas St. UMBC won vs. Vermont UNCG won at VMI Syracuse won vs. Georgia Tech Duke won vs. Virginia Tech
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 21, 2020 23:36:14 GMT -5
VCU is toast
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