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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 18, 2020 21:13:59 GMT -5
Purdue loses and they are now 14-13. What a puzzling case as their metrics (Top 35 in NET and KenPom) are strong, but they are now 7-9 in the B10 and only 1 game over .500, and only have 3 Q1 wins. Not a great night as all 3 OOC teams lose. Really need Dayton and Baylor to hold up tonight.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 18, 2020 23:28:52 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix updated through 2/18 now has the Hoyas in 80/108 brackets (74%), good for 3rd to last team in. Also notably, Hoyas now ahead of UNI (AQ ranked ahead of the last at-large) and ETSU also now in at-large discussion as well.
With Creighton's win over Marquette, the Hoyas are a win tomorrow away from being a game out of 4th in the conference with H2H remaining against T-4, T-4, and 7th. Hard to fathom we'd be in this position 10 days ago.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 19, 2020 8:13:45 GMT -5
Aside from our own game, other Wednesday games to track for the bubble:
Bubble: 6th to last team in: Virginia won vs. BC 4th to last team in: Cincinnati loss vs. UCF 2nd to last team in: Indiana won at 7th to last team out: Minnesota Last team in: Utah St. won vs. Wyoming First team out: Richmond won vs. George Mason 4th team out: Mississippi St. won vs. South Carolina 5th team out: Alabama loss vs. Texas A&M 6th team out: NC State won vs. Duke 10th team out: Memphis won vs. East Carolina
BE: Butler loss at Seton Hall (a Butler loss ties them with us at 7 conference losses) Nova won at Depaul
OOC: Syracuse loss at Louisville Samford loss at Mercer American won vs. Navy UNCG won vs. Wofford Central Arkansas loss at Stephen F. Austin SMU loss at Tulane Texas won vs. TCU
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LCPolo18
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Post by LCPolo18 on Feb 19, 2020 12:26:35 GMT -5
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 19, 2020 13:41:20 GMT -5
While it will make the NCAA road much tougher, the do or die scenario this writer implies simply isn't true.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2020 13:48:48 GMT -5
While it will make the NCAA road much tougher, the do or die scenario this writer implies simply isn't true. I'm tired of hearing it in general. Sure, each win we get brings us that much closer to the goal. I'll be rooting like hell tonight. But just last year, as we were still holding the faintest hopes of an NCAA bid... we beat the #1 and #2 conference teams down the stretch and lost to the #10 seed by 32. Nobody's going to predict the remainder of the season correctly.
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Post by tribeninerhoya on Feb 19, 2020 13:58:58 GMT -5
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 19, 2020 15:37:42 GMT -5
Everyone is looking for clicks. And now that these guys are trying to update their brackets and their thinking on almost a nightly basis, it's simply impossible for them to keep up with all the nuance. Just think about how our metrics change -- sometimes significantly! -- even on days we don't play just based on what our previous opponents do that night.
Ours is especially difficult given that St.J, SMU, Penn St., and OKSt all have veered between Q1 and Q2. Alternating those games between the two extremes: 5-9 looks a lot better than 2-8.
I still think we're in better shape -- right now -- than many give us credit for. Three of our Q1 wins are to "fringe" Q1 teams....but two of them aren't. Creighton and Butler are both in the Net T20. I can't imagine there are too many (any?) bubble teams with: (1) more Q1 wins; (2) more Q1 plus Q2 wins; (3) more top-tier Q1 wins; (4) zero bad (Q3+Q4) losses; AND (5) a top-tier SOS. The biggest warts are our conference record (which is supposedly irrelevant) and our overall winning percentage (which they've ignored in the past given SoS and other metrics).
On Edit: The teams right above us in the matrix are Cincy, Purdue, and UVA. All three currently are worse than us in ALL five of the areas I mentioned. I know I'm cherry-picking metrics to some degree...but only a bit. Those are big ones.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 19, 2020 21:40:06 GMT -5
Cinci just lost at home to UCF which is HUGE!!!
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Post by BeantownHoya on Feb 19, 2020 21:42:11 GMT -5
Cinci just lost at home to UCF which is HUGE!!! Alabama also had a bad loss at home tonight...their bubble probably just burst.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 19, 2020 21:50:03 GMT -5
Cinci just lost at home to UCF which is HUGE!!! Now lets hope we can finish...
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 19, 2020 23:11:02 GMT -5
Shut it down (for the time being).
Too painful.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 19, 2020 23:15:03 GMT -5
Still very much in it. Outside of NC State and to a much lesser extent, Indiana, most of the rest of the bubble either took an even more crippling loss than we did or had a treading water type win.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 19, 2020 23:51:01 GMT -5
Still very much in it. Outside of NC State and to a much lesser extent, Indiana, most of the rest of the bubble either took an even more crippling loss than we did or had a treading water type win. Indiana has a very tough next three games. If Penn State gets Myreon Jones back, I see Penn State taking hat one with relative ease. I don't think this Indiana team is that good. And going into Illinois followed by going into Mackey Arena against Purdue is very tough. That stretch could basically take them off of the bubble. But hey, I've been wrong many times before.
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hoyainla
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Post by hoyainla on Feb 20, 2020 0:04:21 GMT -5
Still very much in it. Outside of NC State and to a much lesser extent, Indiana, most of the rest of the bubble either took an even more crippling loss than we did or had a treading water type win. Indiana has a very tough next three games. If Penn State gets Myreon Jones back, I see Penn State taking hat one with relative ease. I don't think this Indiana team is that good. And going into Illinois followed by going into Mackey Arena against Purdue is very tough. That stretch could basically take them off of the bubble. But hey, I've been wrong many times before. If Indiana gets to 9 conference wins I don’t see how they don’t get in. They have no bad losses and a bunch of good wins. Their only knock is that all their big wins have been at home.
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mdtd
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Post by mdtd on Feb 20, 2020 0:12:34 GMT -5
Indiana has a very tough next three games. If Penn State gets Myreon Jones back, I see Penn State taking hat one with relative ease. I don't think this Indiana team is that good. And going into Illinois followed by going into Mackey Arena against Purdue is very tough. That stretch could basically take them off of the bubble. But hey, I've been wrong many times before. If Indiana gets to 9 conference wins I don’t see how they don’t get in. They have no bad losses and a bunch of good wins. Their only knock is that all their big wins have been at home. Bad metrics, maybe. And you are 100% correct about the home/road difference. I just don't think they're that good. In the games I've watched, they've just looked horribly. On paper, them with 9 conference wins gets in, but their metrics are going to be below par if they only hit 9 Big Ten wins. I'm a huge proponent of quality wins, who you beat should and does matter in making the tournament (you have to beat tourney teams to make the tourney, it's that simple), but I just don't like that team. Nothing to it other than the eye test. I think they start slumping soon. I just don't trust them. Again, I very well could be wrong about them, but I just don't think they are a tournament team.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 20, 2020 7:42:00 GMT -5
Though unlikely, I’m not writing off the NCAA chances until we lose two more games.
That being said, we probably need to win 1-2 games still for the NIT no? I don’t think a 15-16 team gets in? 16-15 (and 16-16 if we lost Weds at the BET) might even be a stretch.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 20, 2020 8:25:10 GMT -5
Though unlikely, I’m not writing off the NCAA chances until we lose two more games. That being said, we probably need to win 1-2 games still for the NIT no? I don’t think a 15-16 team gets in? 16-15 (and 16-16 if we lost Weds at the BET) might even be a stretch. There is no longer a .500 record requirement. The NIT is supposed to select the best teams after regular season champs are placed. If we go 0-6? Almost surely not in. I agree 1-5 would be tough also.
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 20, 2020 10:13:04 GMT -5
Bracket Matrix as of last night has us in 91/116 brackets (78%), good for third to last team in (ahead of both AQs UNI and ETSU). Of course, this will be expected to drop after last night's defeat. However, I would not expect us to drop further than first four out by the time we take the court against Depaul.
Thursday's games to track, with several key P12 games:
Bubble: 9 seed: St. Mary's vs. Loyola Marymount 10 seed: Wichita St. won vs. USF 10 seed: USC loss at Colorado 10 seed: Arizona St. won vs. Oregon 11 seed AQ: UNI loss at Indiana St. 4th team out: Stanford won at Washington
OOC: Georgia St. loss at UT-Arlington UMBC won at Albany
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 20, 2020 11:07:29 GMT -5
Though unlikely, I’m not writing off the NCAA chances until we lose two more games. That being said, we probably need to win 1-2 games still for the NIT no? I don’t think a 15-16 team gets in? 16-15 (and 16-16 if we lost Weds at the BET) might even be a stretch. There is no longer a .500 record requirement. The NIT is supposed to select the best teams after regular season champs are placed. If we go 0-6? Almost surely not in. I agree 1-5 would be tough also. Right. The NIT bids are basically just the last several teams that did not make the NCAA tournament. So, if we are among the 20 or so teams that just miss, we will get a bid. Plus, there are NIT autobids (conference winners who do not make the NCAA tournament), so depending on how that shakes out, it can affect the number of at large bids, too. While there isn't a .500 requirement, if we lost 5 or 6 more games, I really doubt we would be good enough to warrant an NIT bid. That said, I think the odds of our losing 5 or 6 games are very low. KenPom projects us at 17-14, 7-11 in conference. I think that record would get us to the NIT.
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