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Post by rustyshackleford on Mar 3, 2013 23:27:07 GMT -5
Why is our "Non-Conference RPI" so high (now 5th) when our "Non-Conference SoS" is as we've all recognized so incredibly low? What does that number represent? In addition, you may recall that Duquesne and Liberty were foisted upon us for participating in the Legends Classic. Scheduling Longwood, Western Carolina and AU are all our own fault of course. Thank goodness Towson overperformed. ? This says our non conference rpi and sos are 11 and 200! respectively: espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpiKenpom says our non conf sos is even worse. Some of its bad luck - Texas was supposed to be way better and we never got Florida in but part of it was our own doing. |
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rosslynhoya
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Post by rosslynhoya on Mar 3, 2013 23:34:08 GMT -5
? This says our non conference rpi and sos are 11 and 200! respectively: espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpiKenpom says our non conf sos is even worse. Some of its bad luck - Texas was supposed to be way better and we never got Florida in but part of it was our own doing. On the espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty matrix, it shows our NCRP as 5 and NCSS as 201. Maybe that sheet freezes each time Lunardi updates the big bracket and the "RPI" page is in constant flux? Does NCRP mean anything at all? |
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Post by rustyshackleford on Mar 3, 2013 23:39:13 GMT -5
? This says our non conference rpi and sos are 11 and 200! respectively: espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpiKenpom says our non conf sos is even worse. Some of its bad luck - Texas was supposed to be way better and we never got Florida in but part of it was our own doing. On the espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty matrix, it shows our NCRP as 5 and NCSS as 201. Maybe that sheet freezes each time Lunardi updates the big bracket and the "RPI" page is in constant flux? Does NCRP mean anything at all? Yeah - it looks like it (the nitty gritty report) hasn't updated w/yesterday or today's games - though why our non conference rpi should drop so much w/out a big corresponding drop in NCSS doesn't make sense. I did just notice that I'm pretty much making the same argument as Lunardi according to his 'preferred formula' so i much just stop now. |
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Post by rustyshackleford on Mar 3, 2013 23:42:23 GMT -5
Lunardi's 'power 25':
Power 25 ballot: 01-Indiana, 02-Gonzaga, 03-Kansas, 04-Georgetown, 05-Duke, 06-Louisville, 07-Miami, 08-Michigan, 09-Florida, 10-Michigan St 11-NMex, 12-KState, 13-Marq, 14-Cuse, 15-OhioSt, 16-OkSt, 17-Wisc, 18-Zona, 19-UNLV, 20-Pitt, 21-StLouis, 22-ND, 23-VCU, 24-Oregon, 25-UCLA
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 3, 2013 23:54:30 GMT -5
? This says our non conference rpi and sos are 11 and 200! respectively: espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpiKenpom says our non conf sos is even worse. Some of its bad luck - Texas was supposed to be way better and we never got Florida in but part of it was our own doing. On the espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty matrix, it shows our NCRP as 5 and NCSS as 201. Maybe that sheet freezes each time Lunardi updates the big bracket and the "RPI" page is in constant flux? Does NCRP mean anything at all? Its because the RPI is a flawed metric and you can easily game the system. So no NCRP doesnt mean anything. Even more to the point, for the committee beating cupcakes is rather meaning less, they are ambivalent to it. If you only beat cup cakes they care and if you lose to them they care, but if you play tough teams (or at least try to) they will ignore crappy teams that you beat. Also there have been two Committee members who have publicly said they look at Sagarin and KenPom: the WCC Commish and the Committee Chairman (im not going to look their names up). So RPI isnt everything anymore. |
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Post by HoyaLawya on Mar 4, 2013 0:26:06 GMT -5
Nitty gritty report shows all kinds of stats showing how we stack up against the other contenders. espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nittyWe know that one of the voters, from Springfield VA, is going to favor us with a #1 vote AGAIN. This time, maybe more of the voters will join him since the past week is sure to find a lot more vote splitting going on. www.pollspeak.com/component/option,com_psreport/Itemid,3/lang,en/p,49/r,V/s,22/t1,124/t2,/v,619/w,17/ More importantly, Dunleavy was the biggest Gonzaga-skeptic last week. That bodes well for us to be #1 or #2 on his ballot tomorrow. The guy is a real WCC hater, in general. Which he terms "putrid" in this bit of handiwork. washingtonexaminer.com/gonzaga-about-to-become-no.-1-by-default/article/2523122I think there might be more than just his lone, and probably heavily anti-WCC biased, vote cast for Hoyas as a #1. But I think the Zags will emerge as #1 in the rankings tomorrow. Watch for voting that goes even more in the direction of split votes for different #1 favorites. |
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Post by wahoohoya on Mar 4, 2013 8:26:40 GMT -5
W/respect to Duke's away schedule - I agree it's weak but there are very few teams who have neutral court wins as impressive as Louisville, VCU, Minnesota and Ohio State. Ohio State was a home game for Duke. And they played Louisville without Dieng. They have had some nice wins, for sure, but I don't find their body of work overly impressive. |
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 4, 2013 9:19:40 GMT -5
Though Duke presents a strong resume, I still find it difficult to move them up one spot to #2 after a 1-1 week. The win was great, and the loss wasn't bad, but I would drop them a notch or two. At best, they stay even.
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SDHoya
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Post by SDHoya on Mar 4, 2013 9:27:50 GMT -5
Was Duke's win on Saturday really that great? It was a home win against a team they came into the game ranked higher than. I agree the loss at UVA wasn't a bad loss, but if Duke doesn't drop this week it is entirely due to Ryan Kelly's performance (I can't believe I just said that). He had an incredible game, and now (if you listen to ESPN) Duke is a complete team that can make a deep run. But it will be interesting to see this week whether that was a one off emotion driven fluke, or whether he really has turned into this year's Ryan Zoubek.
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hoya9797
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Post by hoya9797 on Mar 4, 2013 9:33:19 GMT -5
All Saturday did was confirm that Miami is better than Duke. Based on the results of the two games, a massive home win and a very close road loss, I'd definitely bet on Miami to beat Duke in a neutral site game.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Mar 4, 2013 10:04:04 GMT -5
All Saturday did was confirm that Miami is better than Duke. Based on the results of the two games, a massive home win and a very close road loss, I'd definitely bet on Miami to beat Duke in a neutral site game. That's a good analysis |
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hoyajmw
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Post by hoyajmw on Mar 4, 2013 10:17:11 GMT -5
Kornheiser just said on his local radio show he thinks Hoyas are #1 in the country. So we got that goin' for us . . .
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HoNYaSaxa
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Post by HoNYaSaxa on Mar 4, 2013 10:21:42 GMT -5
Was Duke's win on Saturday really that great? It was a home win against a team they came into the game ranked higher than. I agree the loss at UVA wasn't a bad loss, but if Duke doesn't drop this week it is entirely due to Ryan Kelly's performance (I can't believe I just said that). He had an incredible game, and now (if you listen to ESPN) Duke is a complete team that can make a deep run. But it will be interesting to see this week whether that was a one off emotion driven fluke, or whether he really has turned into this year's Ryan Zoubek. This caused me to look back into the Zoubek archive. Hilarity ensued. From his Wikipedia page, on life after basketball: After working with a technology start-up for year, Zoubek decided to follow his own "dreams" and open his own bakery, named Dream Puffz, which specializes in cream puffs. Dream Puffz opened in Haddonfield, New Jersey on July 30, 2012. However, Zoubek shut down Dream Puffz on February 16, 2013 to pursue real estate opportunities. Zoubek said he is in negotiations to sell the rights to the Dream Puffz name.He should license the name back to Duke... |
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lichoya68
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Post by lichoya68 on Mar 4, 2013 10:41:05 GMT -5
hmmm duke loss to uva not a bad loss hmmmm didnt bc who stinks just beat..... uva just saying look at the total portfolio of work guys but need to beat nova NOW. ;D
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 4, 2013 10:45:02 GMT -5
Was Duke's win on Saturday really that great? It was a home win against a team they came into the game ranked higher than. I agree the loss at UVA wasn't a bad loss, but if Duke doesn't drop this week it is entirely due to Ryan Kelly's performance (I can't believe I just said that). He had an incredible game, and now (if you listen to ESPN) Duke is a complete team that can make a deep run. But it will be interesting to see this week whether that was a one off emotion driven fluke, or whether he really has turned into this year's Ryan Zoubek. This caused me to look back into the Zoubek archive. Hilarity ensued. From his Wikipedia page, on life after basketball: After working with a technology start-up for year, Zoubek decided to follow his own "dreams" and open his own bakery, named Dream Puffz, which specializes in cream puffs. Dream Puffz opened in Haddonfield, New Jersey on July 30, 2012. However, Zoubek shut down Dream Puffz on February 16, 2013 to pursue real estate opportunities. Zoubek said he is in negotiations to sell the rights to the Dream Puffz name.He should license the name back to Duke... That's a floor slapper of a story! |
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Post by vamosalaplaya on Mar 4, 2013 10:56:19 GMT -5
I am familiar with the weightings math in RPI and how you get 50% more credit for beating a 200 RPI than a 300 RPI and therefore among other issues it overpenalizes you for playing weak teams - and that is killing the Hoyas this year in that regard. I am a bit confused though as to why Georgetown has a 16 rating in Pomeroy and an 11 in Sagarin this year - is it the perfect storm of close games against bad teams that hurt the efficiency numbers, plus that blow out loss to Pitt? I have been poking around and I don't get it. Wisconsin has 9 losses including a 13 point loss at home to Purdue and they are way above the Hoyas in Pomeroy.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 4, 2013 11:05:02 GMT -5
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 4, 2013 11:07:39 GMT -5
I am familiar with the weightings math in RPI and how you get 50% more credit for beating a 200 RPI than a 300 RPI and therefore among other issues it overpenalizes you for playing weak teams - and that is killing the Hoyas this year in that regard. I am a bit confused though as to why Georgetown has a 16 rating in Pomeroy and an 11 in Sagarin this year - is it the perfect storm of close games against bad teams that hurt the efficiency numbers, plus that blow out loss to Pitt? I have been poking around and I don't get it. Wisconsin has 9 losses including a 13 point loss at home to Purdue and they are way above the Hoyas in Pomeroy. There are two things that ultimately work against the Hoyas in things like the Pomeroy ratings or Sagarin. 1. Not blowing out bad teams. Particularly, beating teams like Duquesne by less than ten points at home. 2. Getting blown out by Pitt, at home. While Sagarin and Pomeroy use different data and methods, remove the Pitt game and most of the home cupcake games, and the Hoyas probably jump to the top 5 in both ratings. |
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 4, 2013 11:16:31 GMT -5
Was Duke's win on Saturday really that great? It was a home win against a team they came into the game ranked higher than. I agree the loss at UVA wasn't a bad loss, but if Duke doesn't drop this week it is entirely due to Ryan Kelly's performance (I can't believe I just said that). He had an incredible game, and now (if you listen to ESPN) Duke is a complete team that can make a deep run. But it will be interesting to see this week whether that was a one off emotion driven fluke, or whether he really has turned into this year's Ryan Zoubek. I think it was a great win for their resume. I agree with you on Kelly. Tremendous game. Joe Harris scored 36 against Duke in UVA's win, and followed that up with 14 in the BC loss. Not bad, but not otherworldly. We'll see for Kelly and Duke. |
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 4, 2013 11:20:40 GMT -5
THB is right on the Pomeroy rankings. I know capping MOV makes it less accurate on the aggregate, but I still think there's something there -- the system requires he treat every team the same and in that assumption is that every team treats cupcakes or blowouts the same. I'm not surprised in aggregate, capping blowouts doesn't help, but it may actually still be a flaw.
It also generally overrates Duke and Wisconsin and I think every team that is remarkable consistent on effort. I always think of this as an NBA phenomenon. Every year there's a team that performs really well in the regular season because they go 100% while the very best teams pace themselves for the long playoffs. Leading to the harder working team to be overrated when they face the sandbagging team -- which is now at 100% effort.
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