GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2012 15:31:38 GMT -5
I agree. I think it is more just about discussion fodder since we dont really have much else to talk about now ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) Speaking of which, go N.J.I.T! They are in the final of the Great West.
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blueandgray
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Post by blueandgray on Mar 9, 2012 15:34:56 GMT -5
The biggest difference between a 3 and a 4 would be having to play a UNC or UK at the round of 16. Further, chances of one of those teams being upset at the round of 32 before having to play them are slim to none.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 9, 2012 16:03:18 GMT -5
The biggest difference between a 3 and a 4 would be having to play a UNC or UK at the round of 16. Further, chances of one of those teams being upset at the round of 32 before having to play them are slim to none. As long as we never have to play a double-digit seed, we have nothing to worry about. Oh wait, there's the first (second) round.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 9, 2012 16:21:02 GMT -5
Anyone know how the sub-regional sites are assigned? Actually, to phrase the question more clearly, are sub-regional sites and seeds pre-determined? Would hope we still have a shot of staying close to home (Pitt, Greensboro, Columbus) instead of being exiled somewhere out West (Albequerque, Portland) or down south (Nashville). They aren't "pre-determined" any more. Can be two 1-seeds, two 4-seeds, etc. The two "pods" don't necessarily have to be next to each other, even on the same side of the bracket. Pretty sure the cliffs notes version is they'll allocate them from the #1 overall seed on down, keeping the best teams as close to home as possible. A few are obvious: Syracuse is a lock for Pittsburgh, Kentucky and prob. Ohio State for Louisville, Kansas and Mizzou for Omaha, Duke and UNC for Greensboro. It's a little more hairy if we fall to the 4 seed--most bracket projections I see tend to have the two random 4 seeds in Portland, and one in Albuquerque. As the 3--where we've been for a little while--I've seen mostly Pittsburgh, with some Nashville/Columbus sprinkled in. I'm not sure about Ohio State. Pittsburgh is actually a hair closer than Louisville. I know Lunardi keeps putting them in Louisville, but Jerry Palm has then in Pittsburgh and Palm is smarter. It isn't like there's a more deserving team that should get first dibs in Pittsburgh after Syracuse. So there could be a Louisville pod slot open alongside Kentucky. That might go to Marquette.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Mar 9, 2012 16:56:27 GMT -5
On a positive, if you go back to November and say we are debating whether we will get a three or a five we would have been thrilled. I think we end up as a strong four seed. Kentucky is the only team I would just assume avoid but frankly if we get to play them in the sweet 16, I'll be beyond happy.
We are in win one at a time mode now. I would prefer a big conference laggard then a strong mid-major who is coming on.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 9, 2012 16:58:59 GMT -5
I still don't get why anyone is even mentioning a 5 seed.
14 RPI right now, 14 in the polls, 9 in SOS, 13 in kenpom, 13 Sagarin and 6th in top 50 wins.
We're either a 3 or a 4 and I'll put it at 60-40 for the #3 line.
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Post by mikeylikesit on Mar 9, 2012 17:08:00 GMT -5
I still don't get why anyone is even mentioning a 5 seed. 14 RPI right now, 14 in the polls, 9 in SOS, 13 in kenpom, 13 Sagarin and 6th in top 50 wins. We're either a 3 or a 4 and I'll put it at 60-40 for the #3 line. Agreed. I only think we even fall to a 4 if Louisville, Florida State, Wisconsin, or maybe UNLV wins their respective conference tournament. Indiana, Wichita State, and Temple are already gone from their conference tournaments. Don't think Florida or any other team has enough to leapfrog us even with a conference tournament win.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 9, 2012 17:51:19 GMT -5
3 or 4. For me it does not matter. We just have to win. I believe, on a neutral court, in a single game, we have a shot at anyone we play. Cue Bernie Mac.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Mar 9, 2012 19:05:17 GMT -5
The projected 14 seeds are much worse than the projected 13s, if you compare the bracket matrix with Pomeroy. Belmont is an especially scary 13, as they are #24 in the nation per KenPom. So if those seed projections are accurate, that's a strong reason to prefer the 3 seed.
The projected 5s and 6s are all over the place. Getting coupled with Wichita State in the second round would be awful, as they are #8 per Pomeroy. Murray State, on the other hand, looks like a very week 5 (KenPom #44).
Bottom line: there will be at least one 4 seed in a better spot in the bracket than at least one 3 seed. I would rather be that 4 seed than that 3 seed.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 9, 2012 19:41:01 GMT -5
Giga, the problem is that while we are 6th in top 50 wins we are 1-5 against top 50-100. Put together, we are only 9-8 vs the top100. Other teams like Baylor (11-6) and Michigan (12-6) look better in comparison. And if you look really closely at our top 50 wins, only Marquette would be considered a marquee win. We beat Memphis twice and that team is a mirage. They have only beaten 1 top 50 team all season. The committee will see right through those wins. Today's action though, really helps to solidify a 4 seed. Indiana and Temple, teams that could have potentially passed us with a nice tourney run lost. Things still could break our way but right now it looks like we are looking at a 4 seed.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 9, 2012 19:48:03 GMT -5
Go Minnesota!
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2012 19:54:50 GMT -5
The projected 14 seeds are much worse than the projected 13s, if you compare the bracket matrix with Pomeroy. Belmont is an especially scary 13, as they are #24 in the nation per KenPom. So if those seed projections are accurate, that's a strong reason to prefer the 3 seed. The projected 5s and 6s are all over the place. Getting coupled with Wichita State in the second round would be awful, as they are #8 per Pomeroy. Murray State, on the other hand, looks like a very week 5 (KenPom #44). Bottom line: there will be at least one 4 seed in a better spot in the bracket than at least one 3 seed. I would rather be that 4 seed than that 3 seed. It's a fair analysis, but I think you are making a lot of assumptions. Once you get to talking about 13 and 14 seeds, no one knows the real projections. For one, they are all likely based on guessing who the conference champion is. One upset there and it's different. For example, one of the only reasons Ohio was a 14 seed when they beat us is because they were like the 6th place team regular season team in that conference.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Mar 9, 2012 19:55:52 GMT -5
Cincy 12 over Syracuse at half.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 9, 2012 20:02:52 GMT -5
We should be a 4, but I cannot build a case for a 3 seed. The BE is not great this year and we should clearly be seeded behind SU, MU, Cincy (if they beat SU) and perhaps even UL if they win. Also, do not think for a moment this human selection committee forgot the last 2 seasons where we were perceived as over-seeded in hindsight. We will not get the benefit of the doubt in that selection room. I am hoping a 4 and expecting a 5 seed.
Either way the Hoyas need to come out play furious defense and overwhelm. This is where we should thrive, out of conference has always been Georgetown's strength and I still believe last year's performance was easily explained by CW's injury. There is no March jinx and I am looking forward to our guys proving it on the court.
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Locker
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Post by Locker on Mar 9, 2012 20:02:57 GMT -5
The projected 14 seeds are much worse than the projected 13s, if you compare the bracket matrix with Pomeroy. Belmont is an especially scary 13, as they are #24 in the nation per KenPom. So if those seed projections are accurate, that's a strong reason to prefer the 3 seed. The projected 5s and 6s are all over the place. Getting coupled with Wichita State in the second round would be awful, as they are #8 per Pomeroy. Murray State, on the other hand, looks like a very week 5 (KenPom #44). Bottom line: there will be at least one 4 seed in a better spot in the bracket than at least one 3 seed. I would rather be that 4 seed than that 3 seed. It's a fair analysis, but I think you are making a lot of assumptions. Once you get to talking about 13 and 14 seeds, no one knows the real projections. For one, they are all likely based on guessing who the conference champion is. One upset there and it's different. For example, one of the only reasons Ohio was a 14 seed when they beat us is because they were like the 6th place team regular season team in that conference. Yes, I understand that seed projections are just projections. That's all we have to go on at the moment.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2012 20:12:16 GMT -5
Yeah, shouldnt have said it that way. I guess my point is that 13-16 seeds are even more volatile because they are only based on who wins the conference.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2012 20:21:00 GMT -5
We should be a 4, but I cannot build a case for a 3 seed. The BE is not great this year and we should clearly be seeded behind SU, MU, Cincy (if they beat SU) and perhaps even UL if they win. Also, do not think for a moment this human selection committee forgot the last 2 seasons where we were perceived as over-seeded in hindsight. We will not get the benefit of the doubt in that selection room. I am hoping a 4 and expecting a 5 seed. Either way the Hoyas need to come out play furious defense and overwhelm. This is where we should thrive, out of conference has always been Georgetown's strength and I still believe last year's performance was easily explained by CW's injury. There is no March jinx and I am looking forward to our guys proving it on the court. Not sure why you feel that way. Syracuse and Marquette will be ahead of us. So? Lville and Cinci lost bad games this season. We didn't. In addition, for instance, as good as the B10 has been, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin have all had 2 bad losses outside the top 100. Michigan may lose to Minnesota tonight, too. Those are the teams competing with us and why are they better?
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mfk24
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Post by mfk24 on Mar 9, 2012 20:39:21 GMT -5
Most recent Joe Lunardi bracketology update has us as a 3 seed for what its worth.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Mar 9, 2012 20:41:41 GMT -5
Minnesota is in the process of choking. Up 6 with a little over a minute left and they let Michigan shoot two threes to tie it and send it to overtime.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 9, 2012 20:52:38 GMT -5
Yeah, Minnesota choked. Damn. Baylor is beating Kansas too. It is probably us, Indiana and Wisconsin for that last 3 seed. Cinci winning could help us.
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