GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 28, 2012 15:54:02 GMT -5
centercourt said it well, "it's not really a worthy cause of pessimism." ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,397
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 28, 2012 16:05:00 GMT -5
Never tell Han Solo or Hoyatalk members the odds. ;D
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 28, 2012 16:09:44 GMT -5
SF - hop on board the Ranch Dressing express. It's a fun and wild ride. Believe me. You'll go slip sliding all the way into the nut house with fava beans and a nice chiaaaanti.
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,300
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 28, 2012 17:26:34 GMT -5
SF - hop on board the Ranch Dressing express. It's a fun and wild ride. Believe me. You'll go slip sliding all the way into the nut house with fava beans and a nice chiaaaanti. When did you morph into Megafan?
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hoyarooter
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 10,300
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Post by hoyarooter on Feb 28, 2012 17:32:40 GMT -5
SF, it sort of kind of maybe sounds like you are pointing out that in the case of both Seton Hall ('12) and Ohio ('10) we lost to teams that played way above their norm offensively. So I agree but since the scenario of losing to an underdog that is hot offensively is fairly common in all sports, I'm not sure how this is a worthy cause for pessimism. Plus I think your statistical analysis is off... I mean if 4 flips in a row come up tails that doesn't mean the 5th flip is any less likely to come up tails, does it? Each individual flip is always 50 - 50. If we get to the BE Championship game our chances of winning are not lessened because of the previous wins it took to get there. (Stated by someone who got a C- in Statistics 101) ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) You obviously didn't take Othmar Winkler for Statistics. ;D For the sake of simplicity, let's assume our odds of winning each game is 50%. Just like the odds of tossing heads each time is 50%. The odds of tossing heads four consecutive times (or of winning four consecutive games in which you have a 50% chance of success) is 1/2 X 1/2 X 1/2 X 1/2, or 1/16, which = 0.0625 (i.e., 6 1/4%). That doesn't mean our chance of winning any particular game is less than 50%. It just means that winning four straight against good competition is hard.
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whatmaroon
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Posts: 819
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Post by whatmaroon on Feb 28, 2012 17:53:36 GMT -5
This isn't taking into account home-court advantage, but based on current standings, Hoyas log5 KenPom odds to win the BET are 22.7%. Louisville is better by KenPom than Cincinnati, so our log5 odds are better at #3 than #2 right now.
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swhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,137
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Post by swhoya on Feb 28, 2012 18:03:06 GMT -5
Not to be a half-empty type, but since everyone seems to be discussing our ceiling, any thoughts as to what the lowest we could get right now would be? Let's say we lost to Marquette and in our first game in the BE tourney. I still don't see us any lower than a 4?
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MEGAFAN
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Posts: 649
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Post by MEGAFAN on Feb 28, 2012 18:57:15 GMT -5
It's OK. The non-stop express train to MEGAFANLAND sees no harm in an alternative route (i.e. Ranch Dressing Express) to Hoya Hysteria.
WHO'S GOT THEIR NON-REFUNDABLE TICKETS TO THE NON-STOP EXPRESS TRAIN TO MEGAFANLAND? LAST CAL! ALL ABOARD!!!
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 28, 2012 21:59:21 GMT -5
I think our floor is a 5 seed but it would require other teams to pick up some wins and us losing our next two games.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 28, 2012 23:53:03 GMT -5
Toot Toot.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 1, 2012 14:52:41 GMT -5
The latest version of the Matrix has these teams in play for 3 and 4 seeds, in order:
3s - Marquette, Gtown, Baylor and Michigan 4s - Indiana, Wisconsin, Wichita St and Lville.
I think that's really good news for us. It suggests that if we beat Marquette, we are in really good shape to hold a 3-4 no matter what. Unless Lville makes or wins the BET final, I dont see them beating us out. Baylor would have some tough matchups in their tourney, and Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan are likely to play each other out of the B10. Who else is really out there? The next line is Florida, UNLV, Temple, FSU, ND. I cant see any of these teams making a better case than us.
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superan
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by superan on Mar 1, 2012 14:59:17 GMT -5
All I know is I definitely do not want a 2-seed because we would most likely be the worst 2 seed and hence balanced by the best 1-seed, Kentucky. Yes, I'm thinking about who we might play in the Elite Eight. ![:o](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/shocked.png) ;D
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 1, 2012 15:18:55 GMT -5
Ha. I hear you, but I would love to be playing Kentucky 3 weeks from now in the Elite 8.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Mar 1, 2012 15:51:40 GMT -5
There are going to be several losses among that group of 8 teams between now and selection Sunday.
Just win Saturday and everything else will fall into place...
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Mar 1, 2012 16:53:40 GMT -5
Just for comparison's sake:
Marquette : RPI 7 24-6 1-3 against the top 25 6-4 against the top 50 4-2 against 50-100, 14-0 against 100+ Georgetown: RPI 10 21-6 3-2 against the top 25 8-3 against the top 50 0-3 against 50-100, 13-0 against 100+
even with out taking into account the head to head win out resume is better than marquettes.
3 things that don't really matter but would improve our tournament numbers would be 1) WV getting their RPI into the top 50 they're at 52 right now gives us 1 less 50-100 RPI loss 2) Pitt staying in the top 100 of the RPI they're at 94 right now. Don't want a 100+ RPI loss to blemish our record 3) If possible for Cinci's RPI to get into the 50's unlikely to happen they're at 69 now, but maybe with some wins in the BET.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 8, 2012 19:53:38 GMT -5
I think that loss may have cost us the 3 seed. The latest polls before today had a consensus in order:
3s - Michigan, Marquette, Baylor and Gtown 4s- Indiana, Wisconsin, Temple, FSU
Baylor won today. The other problem is that Indiana and Wisconsin play tomorrow, so one of them will win. I still say our floor is 4, and I don't even see us being the lowest 4 seed, which is good because you want to avoid Kentucky. Obviously, one team has to lose the Wisconsin-Indiana game. Temple could win the A10 but they aren't going to beat anyone special, and I don't see an ACC run from FSU.
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lichoya68
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
OK YOUNGINS ARE HERE AND ARE VERY VERY GOOD cant wait GO HOYAS
Posts: 17,440
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Post by lichoya68 on Mar 8, 2012 20:00:04 GMT -5
I THINK AND HOPE FOUR SEED BUT wherever we are MUST DO THE LITTLE THINGs BOX OUT NO LAZY PASSES.. hit foul shots no eight minute draughts. etc etc do those and we win HUSTLE FOR FORTY AND DO THOSE LITTLE THINGS and you never know how we do in the big dance go hoyas MOVE MOVE MOVE AND MOVE ON yes ![:o](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/shocked.png)
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hoyaLS05
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,652
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Post by hoyaLS05 on Mar 8, 2012 20:02:55 GMT -5
I think that loss may have cost us the 3 seed. The latest polls before today had a consensus in order: 3s - Michigan, Marquette, Baylor and Gtown 4s- Indiana, Wisconsin, Temple, FSU Baylor won today. The other problem is that Indiana and Wisconsin play tomorrow, so one of them will win. I still say our floor is 4, and I don't even see us being the lowest 4 seed, which is good because you want to avoid Kentucky. Obviously, one team has to lose the Wisconsin-Indiana game. Temple could win the A10 but they aren't going to beat anyone special, and I don't see an ACC run from FSU. I'm not sure avoiding being the last 4 seed guarantees we avoid Kentucky. For instance, they won't put us with Syracuse. They won't put FSU with Carolina/Duke. They won't put Indiana/Wisconsin with MSU, if they can get a 1. So being with Kentucky could be unavoidable.
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Dhall
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,679
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Post by Dhall on Mar 8, 2012 20:09:32 GMT -5
Give me Kentucky. These Hoyas are not winning four in a row going to the Final Four. So we might as well lose to the best with no shame or best case have the greatest upset in school history before ducking out.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Mar 8, 2012 20:09:43 GMT -5
I do think you are right that it isn't a true s curve if the match ups dont work out, but it seems they could, and I would think it would be a pretty big slap for us to be the 4 seed playing the number 1 overall team. I still think we could even be a 3 right now. It will depend on how the rest of the games play out. We'll see, I guess. And,yeah, I'd be pretty happy with sweet 16 regardless.
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