2012 Tourney Ranking thread

[GUJook97]

Mods free free to close if it's not appropriate at this point, but there has been significant chatter on the topic. Also, I think it's worth highlighting this site, which is a really good resource every year.

bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Like brasky pointed out, I think we are in play for #2. I think OSU gets too much credit compared to their numbers.

We are now 8-6 against the top 100. They are 10-6. But, all 8 of our wins are against the top 50. Marq compares favorably, too. Moreover, look at their road wins. The best one is Minnesota. I think if they lose to NW and/or MSU on the road, whoever wins Saturday between us and Marquette claims that 2 seed for the time being.

[hoyas big supporter]

Honestly I think if we beat Marquette convincingly (8-10 at home?) and win the BET by beating Cuse we could been in contention for a #1 seed. We only have the ability to control how we play and the rest will fall into place.

[Boz]

Feb 28, 2012 13:24:58 GMT -5 hoyas big supporter said:

Honestly I think if we beat Marquette convincingly (8-10 at home?) and win the BET by beating Cuse we could been in contention for a #1 seed. We only have the ability to control how we play and the rest will fall into place.

Sweet Jeebus!

Pay this man no mind, basketball gods.

He does not speak for the rest of us!

And really? You had to say this twice??

Frak. I am now doing a Rick Perry rain dance for no injuries in practice this week.

[SFHoya99]

It's like the Seton Hall game never happened.

How anyone can think this team is capable of winning four in a row (six back to Nova) against mostly quality opponents... it's possible, but the chances are less than 5% at best (40% chance of beating Marquette, say 60% chance against our first opponent, then 50% in the Semi and say 40% in the Finals at best means 4.8% chance).

The team that lost to Seton Hall and the team that whupped Notre Dame are the same team. We haven't suddenly gotten much better in two games. They're the same team! Am I the only one who notices this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here!

[williambraskyiii]

Were you saying that in 06-07 when GU got blown at at the Carrier Dome by an unranked 'Cuse team? Yes I know we were coming off a sick winning streak, but the point is even very good teams lay stinkers. Outside of Kentucky and Syracuse, there are no teams that have avoided off-nights altogether. If that is your logic then we are going to have a 2-team Final 4.

[hoyasaxa2003]

While the team played badly at Seton Hall, I think the other factor that is causing people to discount the game is that Seton Hall's scoring was unreasonably good for that game (particularly Theodore) and probably a fluke to some degree.

As far as odds of winning, it depends on the matchups. If we happen to get a matchup with USF, I'd say our odds go up. Also, we could theoretically face a situation where the semi-final is tougher than a final (for example, if we are the #4 seed, or if we face Marquette in the semi-finals which is very possible), so it's really tough to place odds on anything right now.

Winning the Big East Tournament is difficult under any circumstances, but I think Georgetown's odds are certainly better than last year.

[GUJook97]

Feb 28, 2012 13:42:06 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

It's like the Seton Hall game never happened.

How anyone can think this team is capable of winning four in a row (six back to Nova) against mostly quality opponents... it's possible, but the chances are less than 5% at best (40% chance of beating Marquette, say 60% chance against our first opponent, then 50% in the Semi and say 40% in the Finals at best means 4.8% chance).

The team that lost to Seton Hall and the team that whupped Notre Dame are the same team. We haven't suddenly gotten much better in two games. They're the same team! Am I the only one who notices this? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here!

Where is this coming from? We havent lost two games in a row all season. Like Brasky said, I understand the trepidation, but we are certainly in the conversation as one of the top 8-10 teams in the country? Do you think that OSU, Duke and UNC have played much better than us as a whole this season? If so, how would you make that case? if not, than why cant we make a deep tourney run?

ON EDIT: I forgot we lost to Cinci and WV back to back.

[SFHoya99]

Feb 28, 2012 14:09:35 GMT -5 williambraskyiii said:

Were you saying that in 06-07 when GU got blown at at the Carrier Dome by an unranked 'Cuse team? Yes I know we were coming off a sick winning streak, but the point is even very good teams lay stinkers. Outside of Kentucky and Syracuse, there are no teams that have avoided off-nights altogether. If that is your logic then we are going to have a 2-team Final 4.

Brasky, you bring up 2006-07. That team was coming off 11 straight BE wins, and 10 of those were 8 points or more (both of those 8 points wins were double digit leads much of the game closed at the end).

My logic here (and my post isn't clear so I understand your response) isn't "We lost to Seton Hall, we Suck!" It's "We most likely the team we are when taking into account all our games and not suddenly a juggernaut because of two blowout wins."

The Hall was a fluke, and in some ways Notre Dame probably was, too. We're somewhere in between.

That 2006-07 team was a juggernaut by the time of that loss. The loss was a blip. We were 12-2 in the BE before that game.

This team is 12-5, went 4-2 in the first six games, 4-2 in the second and can go 4-2 or 5-1 in the third. We've lost more games than 2006-07 AND played a lot more close games.

We may be improving. There's a lot of reason to think so. Whit & the Frosh, the sophs pulling out of their slumps, Henry showing signs of better play.

But I don't think we're immune to a hot shooting team suddenly, and I don't think the SHU game made our players guaranteed to never have another letdown.

I think a 5% chance of completely winning out is about right. I think a 10%-15% of winning the BET is about right.

I'd love to see this be real improvement of this level of magnitude. Count me as cautious.

[GUJook97]

Who has a better chance of winning that many games in a row? If we can beat Marquette, we go in to the BE tourney as a #3 seed. Is it really a stretch to think the 3 seed has a good chance to win the BET?

[Madgesdiq]

Feb 28, 2012 14:19:45 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

Winning the Big East Tournament is difficult under any circumstances, but I think Georgetown's odds are certainly better than last year.

Considering that we would have been a coinflip to beat DePaul if we had been the 9 instead of the 8, I think we can reach consensus on that statement.

[bigelephant]

If we can beat Marquette then we certainly can run the table as far as the BET is concerned. Not saying we will - but it is more than just possible.

[SFHoya99]

It's painful to even bring this up, but the Seton Hall game was very reminiscent of the Ohio game -- ultra-hot opponent, offense couldn't keep up, defense completely broke down as the team collapsed.

That Georgetown team was 10-8 in conference, but the BE was better than. Their Kenpom ranking was very similar. We stumbled along to about .500 towards the end of the conference season (you can pick endpoints that make us better or worse).

Then we figure it out in the BET team, running through until barely losing to a FF-bound WVU team in the final seconds. Even with the loss, the team had put it together.

And then, Ohio.

I know everyone wants to say it can't happen again -- that team had no character; it was all O and no D and D doesn't allow that; this team has each other's back -- the fight in China! etc. But while those things may have played a role, part of it was just an insanely hot Ohio -- they had an eFG% of 70%. No, the defense was not good, but they were ridiculous.

I will now stop being a downer on this thread, even though, like Boz, I think you folks are inviting a 30-point beatdown by Marquette. I swear, if Jae Crowder draws seven charges against us, I'm blaming HSB.

[GUJook97]

The Marquette game will be extremely tough. I have no delusions about that. That's why I have been saying over and over that we needed to beat ND and get some help from Marq and Lville tomorrow night.

I also have nightmares playing a team like Belmont or Akron in the first round.

But, that said, I think you are overselling the low percentages. We should still regard the team as the 2-3rd best team in the BE and around the 10th best team in the country. I think that is very fair for a 22-6, 12-5 team, no?

[SFHoya99]

Here's my math, quickly breaking my rule: 40% chance of beating 'Quette, 60% chance of beating our first opponent, 50% in the semis, 40% in the Finals if we play Syracuse (better if they get knocked out).

The chances of winning those games seem about right -- but when you have to win them ALL, you have to multiply the odds.

There's only a 40% chance of beating Quette, so 60% of time we can't go 4-0. Of the 40% of the time we win, only 60% of the time do we win our first game in the BET -- 60% of 40% is 24%.

Of the 24% where we win both our first two games, we win 50% of those in the Semis -- 12%. And if we only win 40% of the time against 'Cuse, that puts us at about 5%. Take out the Marquette game -- it's 12% to win the BET. Say we're improving (+10% chance each round) and it's a 21% chance to win BET (but not including the Quette game).

It's just hard to not lose a game.

[Boz]

Never tell Han Solo or Hoyatalk members the odds.

[Deleted]

Feb 28, 2012 14:46:24 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Feb 28, 2012 14:09:35 GMT -5 williambraskyiii said:

Were you saying that in 06-07 when GU got blown at at the Carrier Dome by an unranked 'Cuse team? Yes I know we were coming off a sick winning streak, but the point is even very good teams lay stinkers. Outside of Kentucky and Syracuse, there are no teams that have avoided off-nights altogether. If that is your logic then we are going to have a 2-team Final 4.

Brasky, you bring up 2006-07. That team was coming off 11 straight BE wins, and 10 of those were 8 points or more (both of those 8 points wins were double digit leads much of the game closed at the end).

My logic here (and my post isn't clear so I understand your response) isn't "We lost to Seton Hall, we Suck!" It's "We most likely the team we are when taking into account all our games and not suddenly a juggernaut because of two blowout wins."

The Hall was a fluke, and in some ways Notre Dame probably was, too. We're somewhere in between.

That 2006-07 team was a juggernaut by the time of that loss. The loss was a blip. We were 12-2 in the BE before that game.

This team is 12-5, went 4-2 in the first six games, 4-2 in the second and can go 4-2 or 5-1 in the third. We've lost more games than 2006-07 AND played a lot more close games.

We may be improving. There's a lot of reason to think so. Whit & the Frosh, the sophs pulling out of their slumps, Henry showing signs of better play.

But I don't think we're immune to a hot shooting team suddenly, and I don't think the SHU game made our players guaranteed to never have another letdown.

I think a 5% chance of completely winning out is about right. I think a 10%-15% of winning the BET is about right.

I'd love to see this be real improvement of this level of magnitude. Count me as cautious.

Unfair to compare these guys to a Final Four team that buzzsawed the Big East in February 2007. That said, this team has - aside from Seton Hall - been REALLY good this month:

6-2

Losses: SHU debacle, and OT at Syracuse. No shame in that one

Wins by 14, 30, 10, 10, 21, and 18

The schedule hasn't been crazy-tough, but those numbers are starting to point to a pretty solid run in conference play. We haven't had to squeak out any close wins in 5 weeks (Rutgers). Even in the 10 point wins (St. John's and Providence), I don't think we trailed in either.

[GUJook97]

I think that math makes sense, but I go back to my point - Do you think Marquette has like a 73% chance of winning the BET? Of course not. They are probably at 23%. So, what is the math really proving? I wouldn't even say Syracuse has a better than 50% chance of winning it.

[centercourt400s]

SF, it sort of kind of maybe sounds like you are pointing out that in the case of both Seton Hall ('12) and Ohio ('10) we lost to teams that played way above their norm offensively.

So I agree but since the scenario of losing to an underdog that is hot offensively is fairly common in all sports, I'm not sure how this is a worthy cause for pessimism.

Plus I think your statistical analysis is off... I mean if 4 flips in a row come up tails that doesn't mean the 5th flip is any less likely to come up tails, does it? Each individual flip is always 50 - 50. If we get to the BE Championship game our chances of winning are not lessened because of the previous wins it took to get there.

(Stated by someone who got a C- in Statistics 101)

[Jack]

Feb 28, 2012 15:32:46 GMT -5 centercourt400s said:

Plus I think your statistical analysis is off... I mean if 4 flips in a row come up tails that doesn't mean the 5th flip is any less likely to come up tails, does it? Each individual flip is always 50 - 50. If we get to the BE Championship game our chances of winning are not lessened because of the previous wins it took to get there.

(Stated by someone who got a C- in Statistics 101)

That's not what he said.

[FrazierFanatic]

SF how dare you dampen our wild enthusiasm?! It is just nice to be able to dream big at this point, none of us thought we would ever be in that position this season. And of course you have a very valid point that we can't get too caught up in the last couple of games - but we have played much better this February than in the last couple of years, and the vast improvement in our defense gives me more confidence as we move forward.
I think the Seton Hall loss will actually help us; while SH did play over their heads, our intensity, especially on defense, was lacking. Hopefully they were reminded that they have to bring it on every play - which we have seen the last 2 games(and the Markel situation has helped hammer home the lesson). Every game from here on in will have huge implications, which will help with the focus.