SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,785
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 12, 2006 23:04:50 GMT -5
I dunno. A lot of our advantages aren't exactly new to UNI.
Tall? O'Bryant of Bradley is as tall as Roy. Athletic? LSU is more athletic than we are -- and they beat them on the road.
On the other hand, I can't figure out how this team wins so many games. They have a good two point FG%, but not 3. But they don't seem dominant down low. They defend well, and defensive rebound, so maybe that's it.
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Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,304
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Post by Cambridge on Mar 12, 2006 23:05:40 GMT -5
Some more:
Top performance indicators for contenders (3-6 seeds) Three, four, five and six seeds, the contender teams in the tourney, regularly advance one or two rounds -- and occasionally sneak up on the favored seeds to make a championship run. When you fill out your bracket, it's good to know which of these squads has what it takes to perform above seed expectations. The top three indicators of a contending overachiever are: 1. Winning percentage greater than 0.850 (0.388 PASE) 2. At least 20% of scoring from bench (0.130 PASE) 3. More than 60% of scoring from frontcourt (0.123 PASE)
Far and away, the key characteristic for overperformance among three through six seeds is winning percentage.
Nearly 40% of the contender teams with a 0.850 winning rate (a 24-4 record or better) win a game more than seeding expectations. The second highest contributor to overachievement is a strong bench that gets at least 20% of its team's points.
However, with a PASE of 0.130, only about one in eight of these teams advances a game beyond their seed expectations. The same is true for teams that rely on their forwards and centers for more than 60% of their scoring. (There's that stat again. It's amazing how important frontcourt scoring is to overachievement among the top six seeds; these are the teams that ultimately will vie for Final Four slots).
How do you spot an underachieving contender seed? Look at pre-tourney momentum and inflated RPI values.
Contenders that come into the tourney with more than a four-game winning streak have a PASE of -0.215, so at least one in five are likely to fall short of their seed's typical win total. Oddly enough, about one in 12 (-0.085) three through six seeds underachieve when they're seeded at or below where their RPI suggests they ought to be. For instance, last year Kansas had an RPI of two going into the tourney.
By all rights, they could've been a top seed. In fact, they were a third seed -- a position where you'd expect teams with RPI values of 9 to 12 to be. If the RPI was a true indicator of the relative quality of teams, teams like Kansas should perform better than seed expectations. In fact, they do the opposite -- just one more indication of the questionable value of the RPI.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Mar 12, 2006 23:08:14 GMT -5
SF, I'm not so sure that LSU is more athletic than us, other than Tyrus Thomas. I've watched them and I think we're 10 points better than them playing our A game
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GIGAFAN99
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,487
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 12, 2006 23:09:22 GMT -5
Yeah O'Bryant is big...
...and he DESTROYED them, twice.
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Cambridge
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Canes Pugnaces
Posts: 5,304
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Post by Cambridge on Mar 12, 2006 23:09:39 GMT -5
Top performance indicators for toss-ups (7-10 seeds) Seven, eight, nine and 10 seeds have a 50/50 chance of advancing past the first round (because they play each other) and about a one in four chance of getting to the Sweet 16. Here are the top three signs of an overachieving toss-up seed: 1. More than four straight tourney trips (0.182 PASE) 2. Scoring per game better than field average (0.157 PASE) 3. Playing within 500 miles of campus (0.134 PASE)
Nearly one in five toss-up seeds that have been to the tourney more than four consecutive times outperform expectations. One in six of these seeds overachieve when they average more points per game than the tourney field. And about one in seven toss-up squads beat seed expectations when they're playing within a day's trip of their campus.
Ironically, while team experience is the key to overachievement, coaching experience is the biggest sign of an underachiever. Seven through 10 seeds with coaches who've been to the tourney more than 10 times have a PASE of -0.116. Why do one in nine veteran coaches underperform as toss-up seeds? One theory is that they're overseeded. Sometimes, the reputation of a high-profile coach forces his team to be seeded higher than performance warrants.
There's no mystery to the second biggest contributor to toss-up underachievement. Seven through 10 seeds that score less than the average tourney entrant have a PASE of -0.112 -- further confirmation that scoring offense is a key litmus test of tourney performance across all seed categories.
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YB
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,494
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Post by YB on Mar 12, 2006 23:32:34 GMT -5
We have to play our game and defend well. Get out on those 3s, don't let them McNamara us from the outside. The UNI Dome will be worthless in this matchup.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 12, 2006 23:34:49 GMT -5
yeah great so they've seen o'bryant twice - he was the leading scorer in both games, including a 71-49 stinker AT UNI...roy should have a field day as long as he gets good position and keeps the ball high.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Mar 12, 2006 23:44:13 GMT -5
He's GOT to keep the ball high. He hasn't been doing that of late. Green should have a field day as well, and the refs need to call the game fairly. If they let UNI beat the crap out of Roy just because he's big, we'll have some problems. But if they call the game down the middle, and we
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Mar 12, 2006 23:46:29 GMT -5
I feel a big Bobo game coming on - a senior shall lead us.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Mar 12, 2006 23:48:30 GMT -5
Frazier, I hope to the heavens that you're right about BoBo
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2006 0:37:12 GMT -5
Top performance indicators for toss-ups (7-10 seeds) Seven, eight, nine and 10 seeds have a 50/50 chance of advancing past the first round (because they play each other) and about a one in four chance of getting to the Sweet 16. Here are the top three signs of an overachieving toss-up seed: 1. More than four straight tourney trips (0.182 PASE) 2. Scoring per game better than field average (0.157 PASE) 3. Playing within 500 miles of campus (0.134 PASE) Nearly one in five toss-up seeds that have been to the tourney more than four consecutive times outperform expectations. One in six of these seeds overachieve when they average more points per game than the tourney field. And about one in seven toss-up squads beat seed expectations when they're playing within a day's trip of their campus. Ironically, while team experience is the key to overachievement, coaching experience is the biggest sign of an underachiever. Seven through 10 seeds with coaches who've been to the tourney more than 10 times have a PASE of -0.116. Why do one in nine veteran coaches underperform as toss-up seeds? One theory is that they're overseeded. Sometimes, the reputation of a high-profile coach forces his team to be seeded higher than performance warrants. There's no mystery to the second biggest contributor to toss-up underachievement. Seven through 10 seeds that score less than the average tourney entrant have a PASE of -0.112 -- further confirmation that scoring offense is a key litmus test of tourney performance across all seed categories. I'd like to nominate my old friend 'Bridge to the position of: "HoyaTalk StatBoy" Anyone second?
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Mar 13, 2006 0:49:04 GMT -5
I would 2nd, but I think SFHoya can lay claim to that spot.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2006 0:57:40 GMT -5
I would 2nd, but I think SFHoya can lay claim to that spot. Don't get me wrong, SF is Kool And The Gang with the stats... ... but I think 'Bridge has a greater percentage of posts with numbers I need an astro-physics professor to decipher.
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Locker
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,265
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Post by Locker on Mar 13, 2006 8:51:21 GMT -5
Northern Iowa is #24 in Pomeroy's power ratings....ahead of Gonzaga, among others. That's troubling, as I've found those ratings to be a pretty good predictor of success. Pomeroy's numbers saw us as a Top 25 team long before most on this board did.
Does anyone know whether UNI has a big guy who can shoot the three? The big glaring hole in our defense right now is Roy's inability to guard shooters on the perimeter (either his man or, a la GMac Friday, the person for whom Roy's man sets a screen).
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Mar 13, 2006 9:16:18 GMT -5
Fair enough, but the Hoyas come in at #17 according to Pomeroy.
Similarly Sagarin has the Hoyas at #17 and UNI at #32.
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DrumsGoBang
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
DrumsGoBang - Bang Bang
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Post by DrumsGoBang on Mar 13, 2006 9:30:24 GMT -5
I'm not scared of these guys. Plus I will be at the game. They will fear me, my towel and my beer with a straw.
Second round I'm not even scared of Ohio State. We are battle tested in the Big East. I bet OSU chokes too. Another 15 over 2 upset. (Hampton is in the playin game which is good luck) Plus I can taunt them about taking down their banner.
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HealyHoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Victory!!!
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Post by HealyHoya on Mar 13, 2006 9:39:51 GMT -5
UNI will be tough. First, let's all remember how we began each of our BET games. Flat, flat and flat. Outscored, outhustled and down double-digits after the first 5-6 minutes. I submit that we cannot start our tournament games in this manner.
Next, UNI plays in a competitive conference, No, it's not the BE but they're sending the same number of teams as the ACC and PAC-10.
We ought to win but this will be a tough game.
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Jack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Jack on Mar 13, 2006 9:41:59 GMT -5
I'm not scared of these guys. Plus I will be at the game. They will fear me, my towel and my beer with a straw. Alas, no beers, with or without straws, at NCAA tournament venues.
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geedell
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
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Post by geedell on Mar 13, 2006 9:56:31 GMT -5
I'm not scared of these guys. Plus I will be at the game. They will fear me, my towel and my beer with a straw. Alas, no beers, with or without straws, at NCAA tournament venues. That's what I though...but on to the topic Northern Iowa is going to be Really REALLY motivated to play on Friday and that worries me a lot. We're definitely going to have to match their intensity.
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SFHoya99
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 17,785
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 13, 2006 10:38:45 GMT -5
UNI will be tough. First, let's all remember how we began each of our BET games. Flat, flat and flat. Outscored, outhustled and down double-digits after the first 5-6 minutes. I submit that we cannot start our tournament games in this manner. Next, UNI plays in a competitive conference, No, it's not the BE but they're sending the same number of teams as the ACC and PAC-10. We ought to win but this will be a tough game. We seem to win the games we come out flat. It's the games we're up at halftime we have to worry about.
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