hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,486 
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Post by hoyaboya on Nov 29, 2021 10:29:28 GMT -5
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Post by BeantownHoya on Nov 29, 2021 11:09:45 GMT -5
HoyaBoya 7 wins right now feels very optimistic for the "regular" Hoya Fan let alone you!  |
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,486
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Post by hoyaboya on Nov 29, 2021 11:13:37 GMT -5
HoyaBoya 7 wins right now feels very optimistic for the "regular" Hoya Fan let alone you! I see a decent amount of talent on this roster - young talent, but talent nonetheless. If/when Ewing gets the right combinations on the floor, the team will have a pretty good chance of being competitive in most Big East games. Butler, DePaul, and Creighton in particular do not scare me. Marquette and Providence seem better than expected, but with Cooley coaching, I think we win at least one against the Friars. |
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Nov 29, 2021 11:30:19 GMT -5
HoyaBoya 7 wins right now feels very optimistic for the "regular" Hoya Fan let alone you! I see a decent amount of talent on this roster - young talent, but talent nonetheless. If/when Ewing gets the right combinations on the floor, the team will have a pretty good chance of being competitive in most Big East games. Butler, DePaul, and Creighton in particular do not scare me. Marquette and Providence seem better than expected, but with Cooley coaching, I think we win at least one against the Friars. This is true but Dartmouth and St. Joe's didn't scare me and here we are. By January, I expect a more coherent team and strategy but I also don't see a miracle run through the BET. I would guess 6-14 at this point in conference. Nobody is really all that soft in conference like you could usually expect out of Depaul, ST. Johns or Providence. Every game will be a dog fight and I am afraid that being picked 10th in conference is probably a bit high at this point. |
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DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,777
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Post by DFW HOYA on Nov 29, 2021 12:06:41 GMT -5
Marquette and Providence seem better than expected, but with Cooley coaching, I think we win at least one against the Friars. Georgetown records vs. current Big East coaches (at that school): Jordan (Butler): 4-4 McDermott (Creighton): 9-9 Hurley (Connecticut): 0-2 Stubblefield (DePaul) : 0-0 Smart (Marquette): 0-0 Cooley (Providence): 7-11Willard (Seton Hall): 7-13 Anderson (St. John's): 3-2 Wright (Villanova): 13-22 Steele (Xavier): 2-3 Since 2013: Jordan (Butler): 4-4 McDermott (Creighton): 9-9 Hurley (Connecticut): 0-2 Stubblefield (DePaul) : 0-0 Smart (Marquette): 0-0 Cooley (Providence): 4-11Willard (Seton Hall): 6-12 Anderson (St. John's): 3-2 Wright (Villanova): 3-15 Steele (Xavier): 2-3 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2021 15:17:00 GMT -5
Marquette and Providence seem better than expected, but with Cooley coaching, I think we win at least one against the Friars. Georgetown records vs. current Big East coaches (at that school): Jordan (Butler): 4-4 McDermott (Creighton): 9-9 Hurley (Connecticut): 0-2 Stubblefield (DePaul) : 0-0 Smart (Marquette): 0-0 Cooley (Providence): 7-11Willard (Seton Hall): 7-13 Anderson (St. John's): 3-2 Wright (Villanova): 13-22 Steele (Xavier): 2-3 Since 2013: Jordan (Butler): 4-4 McDermott (Creighton): 9-9 Hurley (Connecticut): 0-2 Stubblefield (DePaul) : 0-0 Smart (Marquette): 0-0 Cooley (Providence): 4-11Willard (Seton Hall): 6-12 Anderson (St. John's): 3-2 Wright (Villanova): 3-15 Steele (Xavier): 2-3 Weird cherry picking ... I'll play ... Since 2018: Cooley (Providence): 3-2 |
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DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,777
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Post by DFW HOYA on Nov 29, 2021 15:24:46 GMT -5
Weird cherry picking ... I'll play ... Since 2018: Cooley (Providence): 3-2Not weird at all. 2013 is the cutover date for the current 10/11 team Big East setup. |
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,486
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Post by hoyaboya on Nov 29, 2021 15:47:03 GMT -5
Weird cherry picking ... I'll play ... Since 2018: Cooley (Providence): 3-2Not weird at all. 2013 is the cutover date for the current 10/11 team Big East setup. I like our chances against Cooley. When was the last time he won an NCAA Tournament game? |
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hoya9797
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,207
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Post by hoya9797 on Nov 29, 2021 15:49:51 GMT -5
Not weird at all. 2013 is the cutover date for the current 10/11 team Big East setup. I like our chances against Cooley. When was the last time he won an NCAA Tournament game? Distilling a guy down to just a few games is a bad idea. When you do that, you can end up with one four game run sticking you with a coach forever. |
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iowa80
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,402
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Post by iowa80 on Nov 29, 2021 16:00:20 GMT -5
Not weird at all. 2013 is the cutover date for the current 10/11 team Big East setup. I like our chances against Cooley. When was the last time he won an NCAA Tournament game? He beat Wisconsin on the road this year. I think I’d take that. |
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daveg023
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,352
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Post by daveg023 on Nov 29, 2021 16:23:44 GMT -5
Providence the last 10 years has been a program where our floor should be; make the tournament 75% of the time, consistently top half of the league.
If Ewing had the record and results of Cooley people would be doing cartwheels around these parts. Really Cooley and JTIII aren’t that different, with JTIII having higher highs, but lower lows.
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hoyaboya
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 12,486
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 1, 2021 14:10:44 GMT -5
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,605
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Post by guru on Dec 1, 2021 14:28:09 GMT -5
These updates are very useful - thank you for sharing them and I look forward to many more! 🙄🙄 |
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
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Post by rhw485 on Dec 1, 2021 14:29:35 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but there's a reason RPI is so far off from the other metrics. Both Bart Torvik and KenPom are still relying on their preseason predictions somewhat, I think for at least the first 10 games. While I definitely highlighted down the stretch last year how great we were doing in the last 10 games, it unfortunately paints a bleaker picture this season. For Bart Torvik our current to season rank would be 229. Now there's a reason they still rely on the preseason predictions, as that tends to be more accurate especially early in the season. But something to monitor if our current level of play continues. RPI is going to be wildly volatile, highlighted by us magically picking up 3 big east predicted wins by simply beating a team at home by the spread without their best player. |
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guru
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,605
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Post by guru on Dec 1, 2021 14:34:34 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but there's a reason RPI is so far off from the other metrics. Both Bart Torvik and KenPom are still relying on their preseason predictions somewhat, I think for at least the first 10 games. While I definitely highlighted down the stretch last year how great we were doing in the last 10 games, it unfortunately paints a bleaker picture this season. For Bart Torvik our current to season rank would be 229. Now there's a reason they still rely on the preseason predictions, as that tends to be more accurate especially early in the season. But something to monitor if our current level of play continues. RPI is going to be wildly volatile, highlighted by us magically picking up 3 big east predicted wins by simply beating a team at home by the spread without their best player. OK, but I would bet a good amount of money on the over at 4 BE wins - maybe not way over, but over |
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rhw485
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 742
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Post by rhw485 on Dec 1, 2021 14:38:14 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but there's a reason RPI is so far off from the other metrics. Both Bart Torvik and KenPom are still relying on their preseason predictions somewhat, I think for at least the first 10 games. While I definitely highlighted down the stretch last year how great we were doing in the last 10 games, it unfortunately paints a bleaker picture this season. For Bart Torvik our current to season rank would be 229. Now there's a reason they still rely on the preseason predictions, as that tends to be more accurate especially early in the season. But something to monitor if our current level of play continues. RPI is going to be wildly volatile, highlighted by us magically picking up 3 big east predicted wins by simply beating a team at home by the spread without their best player. OK, but I would bet a good amount of money on the over at 4 BE wins - maybe not way over, but over oh agreed, the 1 win was laughable, the 4 wins is still low imo |
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bigskyhoya
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,095
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Post by bigskyhoya on Dec 1, 2021 14:44:15 GMT -5
If there was a transitive property in college hoops you wouldn't have a Loyola-Chicago advance deep into the tournament. These projections are interesting to read but provide little guidance on how we will actually perform against BE competition. The team may come together, there could be key injuries and many other factors that come into play. Let's hope we bounced off the bottom with these early losses.
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conshyhoya
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 810
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Post by conshyhoya on Dec 1, 2021 18:14:36 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but there's a reason RPI is so far off from the other metrics. Both Bart Torvik and KenPom are still relying on their preseason predictions somewhat, I think for at least the first 10 games. While I definitely highlighted down the stretch last year how great we were doing in the last 10 games, it unfortunately paints a bleaker picture this season. For Bart Torvik our current to season rank would be 229. Now there's a reason they still rely on the preseason predictions, as that tends to be more accurate especially early in the season. But something to monitor if our current level of play continues. RPI is going to be wildly volatile, highlighted by us magically picking up 3 big east predicted wins by simply beating a team at home by the spread without their best player. I don't like the RPI at all. How is Oakland number 1? FSU got destroyed by Purdue and goes UP 2 spots to 19 while Purdue is undefeated and at 33. I'm sure it was thought up by some Moneyball stat lover but I'm not a fan. |
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boxout05
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 573
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Post by boxout05 on Dec 1, 2021 19:22:16 GMT -5
RPI is calculated by using 25 percent of the team's winning percentage; 50 percent of its opponents' average winning percentage; and 25 percent of its opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. It’s a simple tool and useful for quick comparisons over the course of a season, but will fluctuate wildly at the beginning when winning %s can go from 1.000 to .500 to .666 overnight.
I think the others involve offensive and defensive efficiencies, home-road splits, injuries, projections, etc. much more “moneyball”, oddly enough.
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conshyhoya
Silver Hoya (over 500 posts)
Posts: 810
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Post by conshyhoya on Dec 1, 2021 19:26:06 GMT -5
RPI is calculated by using 25 percent of the team's winning percentage; 50 percent of its opponents' average winning percentage; and 25 percent of its opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. It’s a simple tool and useful for quick comparisons over the course of a season, but will fluctuate wildly at the beginning when winning %s can go from 1.000 to .500 to .666 overnight. I think the others involve offensive and defensive efficiencies, home-road splits, injuries, projections, etc. much more “moneyball”, oddly enough.
Thanks for the explanation. Basically it shouldn't even be released until conference play and then it is more useful.
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