boxout05
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Post by boxout05 on Dec 2, 2021 0:10:58 GMT -5
Yes, and once conference play begins you should start seeing a marked shift. Typically majors load on cream puffs early in the year, so while they win most games their RPi is dragged down by the opponents low winning pct. When they get in conference, they’ll get a bump from better competition and the teams at the top of those conferences should also end up at the top of RPI. Meanwhile, low and mid majors who scheduled up in OOC will get dragged down by the rest of their conferences.
It’s a system and can be gamed. I think JTIII tried to schedule low major teams he was confident he could beat but who would still finish at the top of their conf, which looked much better for the RPI than pasting the lowest of the low or even mid/high major teams who lost most games in better conferences. Regardless, the selection committee has replaced RPI with BPI and Quad 1/2/3/4 games.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 3:28:53 GMT -5
This has to be a top 10 delusional post. We got beat handily by a bottom of the Ivy League team at home and lost on a neutral court to one of the A10’s worst teams. Do you watch Big East basketball? Which teams are we better than?
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Post by jydhoya on Dec 2, 2021 8:02:48 GMT -5
This has to be a top 10 delusional post. We got beat handily by a bottom of the Ivy League team at home and lost on a neutral court to one of the A10’s worst teams. Do you watch Big East basketball? Which teams are we better than? How many wins are you expecting, wsd?
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 2, 2021 8:07:13 GMT -5
This has to be a top 10 delusional post. We got beat handily by a bottom of the Ivy League team at home and lost on a neutral court to one of the A10’s worst teams. Do you watch Big East basketball? Which teams are we better than? We definitely have more talent than Butler, who is putrid. Creighton is beatable. DePaul is a perennial cellar dweller. Providence has Cooley as head coach. There are a bunch of wins in there alone, plus any upsets.
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wsdhoya
Bulldog (over 250 posts)
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 9:10:03 GMT -5
This has to be a top 10 delusional post. We got beat handily by a bottom of the Ivy League team at home and lost on a neutral court to one of the A10’s worst teams. Do you watch Big East basketball? Which teams are we better than? We definitely have more talent than Butler, who is putrid. Creighton is beatable. DePaul is a perennial cellar dweller. Providence has Cooley as head coach. There are a bunch of wins in there alone, plus any upsets. Providence (7-1) just beat Texas Tech and has beaten Wisconsin and Northwestern. DePaul (6-0) has beaten up on better cupcakes than we have lost to and has beaten a decent Rutgers team. I think we go somewhere between 2-18 and 5-15 in conference. Look at who we’ve lost to. It’s embarrassingly bad.
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CTHoya08
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Bring back Izzo!
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Post by CTHoya08 on Dec 2, 2021 9:55:44 GMT -5
Regarding RPI fluctuations (and I've been beating this dead horse for years), it is idiotic that these websites don't compute the SOS component for all scheduled games from the beginning of the season. The result is that a team will win a game against a weak opponent and drop in the RPI (or lose to a good team and rise). That opponent was always on the schedule; the only change was beating or losing to them. None of this matters, of course, because RPI has been phased out (and was a flawed stat all along).* But it has always bugged me to see teams move wildly up and down as the SOS component is added opponent-by-opponent, when the schedule is (mostly) set before the season starts.
*Because RPI has been phased out, I don't bother looking at these sites any more. Maybe they are better now, and the fluctuations are just due to small sample sizes. But it always bugged me to get deeper into the season and see things like "we just beat DePaul, but that actually hurt our RPI."
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Dec 2, 2021 10:04:40 GMT -5
We definitely have more talent than Butler, who is putrid. Creighton is beatable. DePaul is a perennial cellar dweller. Providence has Cooley as head coach. There are a bunch of wins in there alone, plus any upsets. Providence (7-1) just beat Texas Tech and has beaten Wisconsin and Northwestern. DePaul (6-0) has beaten up on better cupcakes than we have lost to and has beaten a decent Rutgers team. I think we go somewhere between 2-18 and 5-15 in conference. Look at who we’ve lost to. It’s embarrassingly bad. If we were a Butler with a seasoned group and we were getting the results we were getting then I get the sentiment. What is being discounted here is our youth & raw talent. The assumption is once the game slows down and they gel a bit, our growth will be exponentially better then the Butler, Depaul, Marquette, Provy's of the conference. It is a glass half full approach but I think it is the only viable one we have at this point with the roster structure being a heavy dose of freshman in the line-up at all times.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 10:36:06 GMT -5
Providence (7-1) just beat Texas Tech and has beaten Wisconsin and Northwestern. DePaul (6-0) has beaten up on better cupcakes than we have lost to and has beaten a decent Rutgers team. I think we go somewhere between 2-18 and 5-15 in conference. Look at who we’ve lost to. It’s embarrassingly bad. If we were a Butler with a seasoned group and we were getting the results we were getting then I get the sentiment. What is being discounted here is our youth & raw talent. The assumption is once the game slows down and they gel a bit, our growth will be exponentially better then the Butler, Depaul, Marquette, Provy's of the conference. It is a glass half full approach but I think it is the only viable one we have at this point with the roster structure being a heavy dose of freshman in the line-up at all times. By 2-18 to 5-15 projection factors in growth. I don't think you realize just how much growth is needed. We were soundly beaten by two awful teams and one mediocre one in our first 5 games. How can you expect us to go from being worse than teams at the bottom of mid major conferences to competing in a very strong Big East? It's not like these freshmen are guys that should be starting as freshmen even later in the season. The reason the Big East is strong and teams like UCLA are strong is they're not starting freshman. Other than maybe 15-20 kids a year, freshmen shouldn't start in P6 basketball. With the caliber of player we have in our freshmen class, I'd say most of them wouldn't start on an average Big East team until their junior year. One or two months of additional experience doesn't give them the talent to be an 18/19 year old starter in this league.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Dec 2, 2021 11:09:45 GMT -5
If we were a Butler with a seasoned group and we were getting the results we were getting then I get the sentiment. What is being discounted here is our youth & raw talent. The assumption is once the game slows down and they gel a bit, our growth will be exponentially better then the Butler, Depaul, Marquette, Provy's of the conference. It is a glass half full approach but I think it is the only viable one we have at this point with the roster structure being a heavy dose of freshman in the line-up at all times. By 2-18 to 5-15 projection factors in growth. I don't think you realize just how much growth is needed. We were soundly beaten by two awful teams and one mediocre one in our first 5 games. How can you expect us to go from being worse than teams at the bottom of mid major conferences to competing in a very strong Big East? It's not like these freshmen are guys that should be starting as freshmen even later in the season. The reason the Big East is strong and teams like UCLA are strong is they're not starting freshman. Other than maybe 15-20 kids a year, freshmen shouldn't start in P6 basketball. With the caliber of player we have in our freshmen class, I'd say most of them wouldn't start on an average Big East team until their junior year. One or two months of additional experience doesn't give them the talent to be an 18/19 year old starter in this league. It's hard to predict how much growth occurs and how quickly. Certainly, our FR are not at this moment capable of playing pivotal roles in a successful BE campaign for all the reasons you note. Even Aminu. But is it impossible that one or two of them develop a good deal over the next couple months, even if that means finding a niche roll and excelling at it? You're right that the odds are lower by the seemingly big leap we need to make. But....it's not as big a leap when you realize just how minutes we get from FR overall. 78 mins last game! That's 40% of overall minutes played by FR. So if a few of them make even modest leaps, the overall result is significant.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 11:16:47 GMT -5
By 2-18 to 5-15 projection factors in growth. I don't think you realize just how much growth is needed. We were soundly beaten by two awful teams and one mediocre one in our first 5 games. How can you expect us to go from being worse than teams at the bottom of mid major conferences to competing in a very strong Big East? It's not like these freshmen are guys that should be starting as freshmen even later in the season. The reason the Big East is strong and teams like UCLA are strong is they're not starting freshman. Other than maybe 15-20 kids a year, freshmen shouldn't start in P6 basketball. With the caliber of player we have in our freshmen class, I'd say most of them wouldn't start on an average Big East team until their junior year. One or two months of additional experience doesn't give them the talent to be an 18/19 year old starter in this league. It's hard to predict how much growth occurs and how quickly. Certainly, our FR are not at this moment capable of playing pivotal roles in a successful BE campaign for all the reasons you note. Even Aminu. But is it impossible that one or two of them develop a good deal over the next couple months, even if that means finding a niche roll and excelling at it? You're right that the odds are lower by the seemingly big leap we need to make. But....it's not as big a leap when you realize just how minutes we get from FR overall. 78 mins last game! That's 40% of overall minutes played by FR. So if a few of them make even modest leaps, the overall result is significant. That's definitely true but it's just frustrating and unrealistic to rely on the type of freshman we have to produce as much as we need them too. It can stunt their growth as well because they're not coming in and playing in a system with older players. They're being asked to compete surrounded by players that are just as inexperienced. Continuity and experience is so extremely important in college sports, as has been emphasized this season by many college football coaches taking advantage of the covid eligibility year. There hasn't been this much parity in college football in decades because by getting old, programs without 5 star recruits like BYU, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, etc. can match the big boys who are starting 19 and 20 year old 5 stars. This translates to basketball as well. We desperately need to let this team get old, even if it means being bad for a couple years. I want our freshmen recruits to come in and play behind and alongside experience going forward instead of being thrown into the fire.
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Post by professorhoya on Dec 2, 2021 11:19:54 GMT -5
We definitely have more talent than Butler, who is putrid. Creighton is beatable. DePaul is a perennial cellar dweller. Providence has Cooley as head coach. There are a bunch of wins in there alone, plus any upsets. Providence (7-1) just beat Texas Tech and has beaten Wisconsin and Northwestern. DePaul (6-0) has beaten up on better cupcakes than we have lost to and has beaten a decent Rutgers team. I think we go somewhere between 2-18 and 5-15 in conference. Look at who we’ve lost to. It’s embarrassingly bad. Didn’t you promise to withhold judgment to after the season is over. Why are you lying.
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 2, 2021 11:22:57 GMT -5
It's hard to predict how much growth occurs and how quickly. Certainly, our FR are not at this moment capable of playing pivotal roles in a successful BE campaign for all the reasons you note. Even Aminu. But is it impossible that one or two of them develop a good deal over the next couple months, even if that means finding a niche roll and excelling at it? You're right that the odds are lower by the seemingly big leap we need to make. But....it's not as big a leap when you realize just how minutes we get from FR overall. 78 mins last game! That's 40% of overall minutes played by FR. So if a few of them make even modest leaps, the overall result is significant. That's definitely true but it's just frustrating and unrealistic to rely on the type of freshman we have to produce as much as we need them too. It can stunt their growth as well because they're not coming in and playing in a system with older players. They're being asked to compete surrounded by players that are just as inexperienced. Continuity and experience is so extremely important in college football this year, as has been emphasized by many college football coaches taking advantage of the covid eligibility year. We desperately need to let this team get old, even if it means being bad for four years. I want our freshmen recruits to come in and play behind and alongside experience going forward instead of being thrown into the fire. Coach Ewing is continuing to stir the gumbo and the results will get better as the season goes on - just look at last year when we peaked at the right time and won the Big East Tournament. The coaching staff has been preaching patience and we should listen to them and support them. Dartmouth and St. Joe's just happened to catch us at the right time with the gumbo having only been on the stove for a few minutes. This recruiting class was a top 20 class nationally for a reason. Once the Big East rolls around, they will have their feet wet and be ready to go. We have a talent advantage against Butler, Creighton and DePaul - for sure. We have a coaching advantage against Providence and Xavier. We probably have a talent advantage against Marquette and Shaka Smart will be new to the Big East wars - his team probably won't be ready for the physicality of conference play. Nova, Seton Hall, St. John's and UCONN look tough - but we'll probably get 1-2 wins against that group. I can see 7 wins easily in the Big East with the talent on our roster - remember, that gumbo takes a while to simmer.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 11:27:51 GMT -5
That's definitely true but it's just frustrating and unrealistic to rely on the type of freshman we have to produce as much as we need them too. It can stunt their growth as well because they're not coming in and playing in a system with older players. They're being asked to compete surrounded by players that are just as inexperienced. Continuity and experience is so extremely important in college football this year, as has been emphasized by many college football coaches taking advantage of the covid eligibility year. We desperately need to let this team get old, even if it means being bad for four years. I want our freshmen recruits to come in and play behind and alongside experience going forward instead of being thrown into the fire. Coach Ewing is continuing to stir the gumbo and the results will get better as the season goes on - just look at last year when we peaked at the right time and won the Big East Tournament. The coaching staff has been preaching patience and we should listen to them and support them. Dartmouth and St. Joe's just happened to catch us at the right time with the gumbo having only been on the stove for a few minutes. This recruiting class was a top 20 class nationally for a reason. Once the Big East rolls around, they will have their feet wet and be ready to go. We have a talent advantage against Butler, Creighton and DePaul - for sure. We have a coaching advantage against Providence and Xavier. We probably have a talent advantage against Marquette and Shaka Smart will be new to the Big East wars - his team probably won't be ready for the physicality of conference play. Nova, Seton Hall, St. John's and UCONN look tough - but we'll probably get 1-2 wins against that group. I can see 7 wins easily in the Big East with the talent on our roster - remember, that gumbo takes a while to simmer. It's a top 20 class getting the playing time that no other freshman class in the country is getting. They're just not talented enough to play this much this early. Even Aminu is borderline capable of starting on a power conference team as a freshman. If he wasn't asked to do so much he'd look a lot better but still. Look at Nova. Look at UCONN. Old teams beat talented teams, and we are nowhere near talented enough to overcome being the youngest team in the league. You can be good with elite talent or with age/experience, and great with both. With neither, which we currently have, it can be very difficult to compete. Pat and the staff better keep these kids happy through the difficulties and get their butts out recruiting in the DMV like the AAU coaches are criticizing them for not doing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 11:45:40 GMT -5
We were ahead vs Dartmouth with 10+ min to go. We were down 4 to SDSU with under 10 min to go. We had a lead vs SJU with under 10 min to go.
Those are our losses. Virtual tossups through 3/4 of the game.
Not saying that's a murderer's row - or a decent team wouldn't have won any of those games - but there's no reason to make it out worse than it really is. Wouldn't we irrationally feel better about the overall performance if we were 5-1 right now? We're basically a couple of coin flips away from that.
Do you want to be down 36-14 against Dartmouth? No. Never. But we went on a 21-1 run right after that.
Young kids. New players. Up & down. Long season.
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hoyaboya
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Post by hoyaboya on Dec 2, 2021 12:53:12 GMT -5
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95hoya
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Post by 95hoya on Dec 2, 2021 13:38:46 GMT -5
Cooley is definitely a better coach than Ewing. The results bear that out.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 16:20:01 GMT -5
Cooley is definitely a better coach than Ewing. The results bear that out. I don't get why he gets so much criticism. Yes it's time for him and PC to make the next step but taking them from an afterthought to consistent bubble or tourney team is not something to dismiss so easily.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 16:23:05 GMT -5
We were ahead vs Dartmouth with 10+ min to go. We were down 4 to SDSU with under 10 min to go. We had a lead vs SJU with under 10 min to go. Those are our losses. Virtual tossups through 3/4 of the game. Not saying that's a murderer's row - or a decent team wouldn't have won any of those games - but there's no reason to make it out worse than it really is. Wouldn't we irrationally feel better about the overall performance if we were 5-1 right now? We're basically a couple of coin flips away from that. Do you want to be down 36-14 against Dartmouth? No. Never. But we went on a 21-1 run right after that. Young kids. New players. Up & down. Long season. Those are two of the worst teams in their mid major conferences and one bubble team. It's one thing to take a moral victory from a close loss to a top 4 Big East team this year given our roster but you shouldn't from those games.
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wsdhoya
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Post by wsdhoya on Dec 2, 2021 16:32:17 GMT -5
Providence (7-1) just beat Texas Tech and has beaten Wisconsin and Northwestern. DePaul (6-0) has beaten up on better cupcakes than we have lost to and has beaten a decent Rutgers team. I think we go somewhere between 2-18 and 5-15 in conference. Look at who we’ve lost to. It’s embarrassingly bad. Didn’t you promise to withhold judgment to after the season is over. Why are you lying. I said I wouldn't judge the staff based on success this season, because they're working with 20% of a Big East roster. Pointing out the obvious that we're not better than teams like PC and Marquette isn't making a judgement. I think it is fair to judge the staff for the fact that we are putting this roster on the floor and based on local AAU and high school personalities mocking them on social media. As you suggested, yes I still do believe that you can't judge Ewing's actual basketball coaching ability based on the wins and losses for the most part because he has no competent big and the team is generally not ready (Ryan, JBill, Halloway, Harris) or not talented enough (Tim, Malcolm, Rice) to play starring roles on a team in the Big East.
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Post by LoudSoundOfREBOUND on Dec 2, 2021 18:24:46 GMT -5
The team (especially the freshmen) have 5 games to continue to grow/gel before playing a BE opponent. A lot (or for that matter, a little) can happen in that time as far as growth is concerned.
To add to that uncertainty, Holloway didn't log significant ( >10) minutes until the Longwood game. I'm not arguing that he'll average 23ppg from here on out, but I think it's clear he's going to be a meaningful player this season. This to say nothing of Clark, who may or may not have an impact if/when fully healthy.
Against Dartmouth, Wilson was the starting C. Conversely, he hasn't logged >10 minutes since Siena so it seems Georgetown started it's emergency C (and played him over half the game) in its opening upset. Ewing is figuring out lineups/rotations. I'd expect this with any young team, even moreso when the non-freshmen are fighting injuries or recoveries therefrom.
I have a hard time thinking the team (in lineups, rotations, cohesion, and quality of play) will be exactly what we saw as recently as Tuesday. Conference games are a different animal and teams can certainly punch above their weight. We have a BET trophy to prove it.
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