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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 15, 2017 13:15:53 GMT -5
Really, the way I look at it, every game up to Villanova is a "swing game," in the sense that if we lose any of them, our odds of making the tournament significantly decline. Thus, while I agree Creighton is a "swing game" or "must win," as soon as that game is over, the DePaul game reaches similar status, etc.
But, I do think you have a point in that Creighton is definitely the toughest matchup on paper we have remaining, at least aside from Villanova. These are the odds KenPom gives us for the remaining games: @ Creighton (19%), DePaul (90%), @ St. John's (50%), @ Seton Hall (39%), Villanova (27%).
Now, the reason KenPom gives us better odds against Villanova than Creighton is because we are home for the Villanova game. Plus, one could argue that KenPom over-estimates Creighton's chances given that they don't have Watson. Still, the Creighton game is going to be a tough one.
I may be doing the math wrong, but based on my calculation, that gives us a 3.3% chance or so of going 4-0 leading into Villanova. So, it's certainly possible but not likely. Of course, if we play better than we have been playing (and as reflected by KenPom's metrics), then our odds would certainly go up. That's really what we have to hope for. Or we need to get ridiculously lucky.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 15, 2017 13:34:40 GMT -5
Yeah, I think Creighton will be a very tough game, but it's the biggest because it gives us 4 top 50 wins going down the stretch. If we lose this game, realistically, we have to wait until Nova to pick up a big, marquee win, and by then, it could be over. I hope having the week off helped to focus for this game. It's the biggest of the season, IMO. I would guess that almost every team with 4 top wins has made the tourney, no?
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 15, 2017 13:50:50 GMT -5
4 Top 50 RPI wins really helps. Tulsa, Michigan and Syracuse all got surprising bids last season and one factor was that they had four, four and five wins over top 50 RPI teams respectively. We really want to get that Creighton win.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Feb 15, 2017 14:24:05 GMT -5
It sure would have helped if we didn't blow that MD game! We would be in right now if not for that.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 15, 2017 22:16:03 GMT -5
Fellow bubble dwellers Providence and Seton Hall winning (along with Arkansas) did not make for a very good night for the Hoyas.
Still like to think we control our own destiny if we can go 4-1, but it certainly helps to have less teams there at the end making their case too...
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Post by bicentennial on Feb 15, 2017 23:47:46 GMT -5
Only 31/2 games separates 2nd from 9th place as of today. The only real outliers are Nova in 1st and DePaul in 10th. We have games against St. John's whom we would pass and we can pull into a tie breaker situation with Seton Hall if we win both those games without depending on other teams to lose. We have the same number of losses as Providence. This gives us potential opportunity to move from 9th to 6th even if only the top teams lose the remaining 4 or 5 games they play.
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SSHoya
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Post by SSHoya on Feb 16, 2017 6:36:02 GMT -5
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 16, 2017 6:40:09 GMT -5
Fellow bubble dwellers Providence and Seton Hall winning (along with Arkansas) did not make for a very good night for the Hoyas. Still like to think we control our own destiny if we can go 4-1, but it certainly helps to have less teams there at the end making their case too... I love it. Big East bubble teams stepped up. That's what good teams do. Your move Hoyas.
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Post by JohnnyJones on Feb 16, 2017 9:54:12 GMT -5
But overall their resume isn't nearly as good as ours. Their two wins over us only takes impact if all things are equal. they aren't. We clearly have the better overall resume The 2002 Hoyas beat BC at BC by exactly 112,000 points I believe. They had a worse conference record and a worse overall record. They got the last spot because their RPI was higher. That was 15 years ago. Head to head and conference are even more meaningless now. I was at that game at Conte. My recollection was something like 70-49. Braswell had 20+ if I recall. I distinctly remember on selection Sunday that year having no expectation we would make the field but then being really frustrated when BC got in,
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 16, 2017 12:27:10 GMT -5
Lunardi's just released updated bracket:
Last 8 in (from safest to most at risk): Michigan, TCU, K State, Arkansas, Cuse, Hall, Illinois State, Marquette
First 8 out (from closest to furthest): Clemson, Tennessee, Ga Tech, Wake, Indiana, Tex Tech, Provy, HOYAS.
The opportunity is plainly there, gentlemen. Now get it done!
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 16, 2017 13:28:58 GMT -5
Seems to be that 19 wins (assuming that includes 1 in the BET) is the magic number. Perhaps getting 18 with a win against Nova might still be good enough, but I wouldn't want to chance that... Total Wins NCAA Bid% 22 100.0% 21 99.8% 20 94.7% 19 76.4% 18 43.9% 17 9.8% 16 0.6% 15 0.0% 14 0.0% OVERALL 27.2% www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/georgetown-hoyas/bracketologyBall is still in the Hoyas court and it's still an uphill climb but yesterday certainly didn't help. Our chances to make the tournament dropped almost 5% to 22.7%.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 16, 2017 14:35:41 GMT -5
Our chances did not really drop. We win 4 of 5 and at least one BET game and we are in. If we win 3 of 5 we need to make the BET finals.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 16, 2017 16:26:48 GMT -5
Our chances did not really drop. We win 4 of 5 and at least one BET game and we are in. If we win 3 of 5 we need to make the BET finals. Agreed, we either win 4 of 5 and make it, or do worse and probably don't make it unless we make the BET final or win the BET. It's really up to us at this point. What everyone else does really doesn't matter, except it determines who we play in the BET.
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 16, 2017 16:54:48 GMT -5
I disagree. 4 or 5 wins will most likely do it but if we win 3 and bubble teams all struggle as well, then we still have a chance.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 16, 2017 17:33:57 GMT -5
I disagree. 4 or 5 wins will most likely do it but if we win 3 and bubble teams all struggle as well, then we still have a chance. The 3 would probably have to include Nova, or at least @creighton.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 16, 2017 18:02:06 GMT -5
The wins by seton hall and providence certainly didn't help. At this point, give me the softest bubble possible.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 16, 2017 19:58:27 GMT -5
The wins by seton hall and providence certainly didn't help. At this point, give me the softest bubble possible. Exactly. The goal should be getting in. We certainly don't want it tougher for ourselves by the nature of more teams having arguments too (especially when we'll likely have more losses than them).
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 17, 2017 8:42:05 GMT -5
The wins by seton hall and providence certainly didn't help. At this point, give me the softest bubble possible. Exactly. The goal should be getting in. We certainly don't want it tougher for ourselves by the nature of more teams having arguments too (especially when we'll likely have more losses than them). Michigan beating Wisconsin last night didn't help either. Obviously if we win out or 4 of next 5 things should be in good shape but still would like to see some of these other fringe teams lose. No one really has this week.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 17, 2017 9:55:36 GMT -5
It's kind of eery how much this is like the first season in the BE. I suppose that year we already had a bad loss against Northeastern. But, we are almost in the exact same spot. That year, we had to play Nova on the road for the last game, though. At this point, my hope is that the Nova game means something.
I still think the bubble is soft enough that we can lose 2 more games. But, it obviously depends on the who we beat and the BET.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Feb 17, 2017 10:14:48 GMT -5
why are we getting called out on bubble watch? front page of espn - don't understand this passage:
"They aren't. So, sure, if you want to blame realignment for Georgetown's ongoing proximity to the bubble, by all means do it. But don't overlook the tweeners, who -- at least this season -- simply aren't pulling their weight."
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