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Post by bicentennial on Feb 14, 2017 12:29:38 GMT -5
The reality for this team is they have 8 losses. If they can end the season with only 8 or 9 losses that would mean they beat 4 or 5 of DePaul RPI 232, KenPom 191; St. John's RPI 124, KenPom 83; Seton Hall RPI 49, Ken Pom 55; Creighton RPI 17, KenPom 22; and Nova RPI 2, Kenpom 3. Obviously if we win all 5 we end on a better run of wins than some top 50 RPI teams have in their whole season(Gonzaga, St. Mary's). If we win 4 of 5 that would also mean a fantastic run to end the season. The easier way to win the 4 would be to take care of business against the 3 teams we have already beaten namely Creighton, DePaul and St. John's. Then we would need to win at least one of at Seaton Hall or Nova at home. I suspect beating Nova at home will be harder task but thie team has shown in different games at different times that they have all the skill needed to do this. Whether they will do so starts with Creighton Sunday.
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Post by bicentennial on Feb 14, 2017 12:39:53 GMT -5
The amazing thing is that despite all the losses, the schedule the Hoyas played was so tough that none of the losses came to bad teams. Sadly as noted many of the losses came in the closing two minutes a pattern that first occurred in the loss to Maryland. Perhaps if they had not given up the lead to Maryland they would not have given up other leads. I don't claim to understand sports psychology but it seems that is part of this team's problem!
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lda05816
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Post by lda05816 on Feb 14, 2017 13:03:59 GMT -5
From ESPN Bubble Watch www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatchGeorgetown [14-12 (5-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 11] A win over Marquette on Saturday kept the Hoyas from falling to 13-13 overall and took a bit of a bite out of an opponent sitting higher on the current bubble heirarchy, but other than that it doesn't move the needle much. Georgetown has this week off before a trip to Omaha on Sunday, where a road win over Creighton could make a much bigger dent.
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daveg023
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Post by daveg023 on Feb 14, 2017 15:39:12 GMT -5
Seems to be that 19 wins (assuming that includes 1 in the BET) is the magic number. Perhaps getting 18 with a win against Nova might still be good enough, but I wouldn't want to chance that... Total Wins NCAA Bid% 22 100.0% 21 99.8% 20 94.7% 19 76.4% 18 43.9% 17 9.8% 16 0.6% 15 0.0% 14 0.0% OVERALL 27.2% www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/georgetown-hoyas/bracketology
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Feb 14, 2017 16:46:13 GMT -5
I simply can't get into the analysis that takes place on threads like this. I understand it - it's an interesting exercise. But with the home loss to Seton Hall, combined with some of the other clunkers, I simply refuse to even get remotely excited for the possibility of making the tournament. Would love to see it, of course. And I will be following and rooting. But I am scarred and I expect the worst. Tough being a Hoyas fan lately....
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Post by bicentennial on Feb 14, 2017 17:53:20 GMT -5
I agree its very tough having faith in the Hoyas to play to their potential.
Ultimately, I believe after a number of seasons where the team seemed to be doing great and injury or other "bad luck" interfered with the conclusion of the season, GU is due for some good luck. All long time fans remember the Chris Wright injury, the Austin Freeman illness, the Jabril Trawick jaw break, the bad loss seasons including last year. Many fans blame JTIII for some of those bad loss seasons. I think some of it just has to do with luck. Maybe good luck will finally strike this year, maybe not.
For all the complaints about JTIII, it is his scheduling that has allowed this Hoya squad to still be mentioned as a possible tournament team despite all the heart breaking losses. This year it turns out none of the losses were to bad teams. The players are clearly still trying to make it to a winning season and I believe they truly have a chance to change the dialogue about this year's Hoya team. Remember that 3 of the players who get the most minutes and two of the coaches on this team have only been on campus for about 8 months. It has taken some time for this team to gel but the team has lost just four of the last 10 games they played and the two worst losses were to Providence and to Seton Hall. Losing to St. John's or to DePaul would be far worse than any of our current losses. If we lose to Creighton then our season goes on life support with only beating the remaining teams including Nova and making a run to the final game in the BE tournament equaling a chance to make the NCAA tournament. If we win at Creighton then a lot of scenarios exist where this team could still be dancing later in March. Hopefully this is the year lady luck shines on the Hoyas!
So if you don't want the mental exercise or to look at the statistics then you just have to stay away until we lose one more game!
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calhoya
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Post by calhoya on Feb 14, 2017 18:00:05 GMT -5
Totally agree that JT III deserves a lot of credit for his willingness to schedule tough and meaningful games in November and December. In this regard he has kept the Hoyas on the radar even when they have poor seasons.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 14, 2017 19:35:35 GMT -5
I simply can't get into the analysis that takes place on threads like this. I understand it - it's an interesting exercise. But with the home loss to Seton Hall, combined with some of the other clunkers, I simply refuse to even get remotely excited for the possibility of making the tournament. Would love to see it, of course. And I will be following and rooting. But I am scarred and I expect the worst. Tough being a Hoyas fan lately.... I am remotely excited. One more win and I will be vaguely interested. Two more wins and I will be somewhat intrigued. Three more wins - fully engaged. Four more - wildly optimistic. Five more wins and I will be maniacally fanatic.
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Post by bicentennial on Feb 14, 2017 20:33:24 GMT -5
Guardedly hoping for Maniacally Fanatic!
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Feb 15, 2017 1:39:05 GMT -5
No, because Providence doesn't have the quality wins that we have Haha, but Providence has two wins over...Georgetown. But overall their resume isn't nearly as good as ours. Their two wins over us only takes impact if all things are equal. they aren't. We clearly have the better overall resume
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Feb 15, 2017 7:35:41 GMT -5
Haha, but Providence has two wins over...Georgetown. But overall their resume isn't nearly as good as ours. Their two wins over us only takes impact if all things are equal. they aren't. We clearly have the better overall resume The 2002 Hoyas beat BC at BC by exactly 112,000 points I believe. They had a worse conference record and a worse overall record. They got the last spot because their RPI was higher. That was 15 years ago. Head to head and conference are even more meaningless now.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 15, 2017 7:52:52 GMT -5
People are right to point out how damaging the Maryland collapse has been on our season. The Arkansas state game is another. Even though Arkansas state turned out to be pretty good, that loss cost us 8 RPI spots. That's a huge swing when you are on the bubble.
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hoyazeke
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Post by hoyazeke on Feb 15, 2017 9:07:47 GMT -5
Is just me or is the StJ's game really scary? It's really the last possibility for a "bad" loss on the schedule. I know we still have DePaul but it we remotely show up we win that game. StJ has been tough in NY and like Creighton they will be motivated because we spanked them in DC....I know that I shouldn't be getting ahead but I can literally see StJ being the swing game.....
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Elvado
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Post by Elvado on Feb 15, 2017 9:12:09 GMT -5
Isn't SJU ahead of us in the league? We damn well should be serious about that game. This team is not good enough to be anything less than 100% locked in on every game the rest of the way.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2017 9:47:41 GMT -5
But overall their resume isn't nearly as good as ours. Their two wins over us only takes impact if all things are equal. they aren't. We clearly have the better overall resume The 2002 Hoyas beat BC at BC by exactly 112,000 points I believe. They had a worse conference record and a worse overall record. They got the last spot because their RPI was higher. That was 15 years ago. Head to head and conference are even more meaningless now. I know - by all metrics we're the "better" team. Which makes it all the more frustrating that we Editeded away the game at their place, and got run out of the gym by them at ours.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 15, 2017 10:27:27 GMT -5
People are right to point out how damaging the Maryland collapse has been on our season. The Arkansas state game is another. Even though Arkansas state turned out to be pretty good, that loss cost us 8 RPI spots. That's a huge swing when you are on the bubble. I basically blame the Maryland game for the loss to Arkansas State. We lost that game in the first half and we started out horribly because we were still stunned from blowing the Maryland game. Also, considering one of the big things that might keep us out is the # of losses we have, even one more win would be really helpful.
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Post by FromTheBeginning on Feb 15, 2017 10:34:14 GMT -5
Step 1 - We need St. Johns, Providence & Seton Hall to all lose tonight
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 15, 2017 11:07:06 GMT -5
No. And, I think you can go further and say that no team in history has made the tourney with our kind of profile/amount of likely losses, like TBird mentioned. But, that doesnt mean you cant root for it. And, I will say, bad/average teams have made runs through conference tourneys to make the tourney, so there is that, too. The optimism is great, but a team arrives at 14-12 for a reason. We really haven't seen anything from this group that should make us think they will roll off five out of six wins. We know they have the talent to do so, we know they should be able to do it if they play well, but they have not demonstrated the ability to consistently execute in the kind of tight end-game situations that will certainly be required over the next few weeks. The computer numbers that have us on the precipice of a tourney bid are as troubling as they are heartening. We clearly have the pieces and the ability to be much better than our record. A run to a tourney bid by this group, led by this staff, would be among the most surprising things I've ever seen in nearly 40 years of pulling for the Hoyas. I never really said I was optimistic. I said I would be rooting for Gtown to make it. Arent we all? Well, I take that back. Some people have made clear that they arent. But, for the most part, we are at least in a position where we can still realistically make the tournament.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 15, 2017 11:13:02 GMT -5
Is just me or is the StJ's game really scary? It's really the last possibility for a "bad" loss on the schedule. I know we still have DePaul but it we remotely show up we win that game. StJ has been tough in NY and like Creighton they will be motivated because we spanked them in DC....I know that I shouldn't be getting ahead but I can literally see StJ being the swing game..... Creighton is the swing game. Winning or losing that game will probably make the biggest difference for our chances.
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McBricks
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Post by McBricks on Feb 15, 2017 13:14:54 GMT -5
Isn't SJU ahead of us in the league? We damn well should be serious about that game. This team is not good enough to be anything less than 100% locked in on every game the rest of the way. I can somewhat understand the excuses as to why the team didn't "show up" in some games. Came out lazy, uninspired, etc. We have to realize these are kids and this can happen. They aren't going to be motivated for every game. But at this point in the season, every player on any team with a heart needs to be giving it their all. If they don't get fired up for this weekend, then no coach can help. If they start the game lackadaisical, then we are in trouble. At this point in the season, with a light at the end of the tunnel, they should be thinking about each game as a playoff game that they need to win. They need to rebound, box out, get after loose balls and play defense. If they can do those things, they are in it to win it. Shooting well takes skill and sometimes you have an off day. But all those other things on the defensive end take effort (and skill certainly helps). If I see a ton of effort, I'll honestly be happy, win or lose. Let's do this fellas!
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