GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 13, 2017 14:07:35 GMT -5
I think Aleutian is generally right, in that we have a very good chance if we get 18 wins, although 15 losses may be too many for the committee to get over, since it would be the most losses by an at large team in NCAA history. In terms of projections, we're still a long shot to even get to 17-14. KenPom has us finishing at 16-15 (7-11), with a 19% chance to beat Creighton, 91% chance to beat DePaul, 50% chance to beat St. John's, 39% chance to beat Seton Hall and 27% chance to beat Villanova. www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlargeI really think we'd be in with 18 wins. I know that likely means 15 losses, but the bubble is quite awful this year. I agree with GIGA that if we beat Creighton, we'd probably be in every projection at 15-12. And, as crazy as it sounds, even at 8-10, we might finish with the 5th best profile in the BE. All that being said, winning 4 more games this year is a very significant task...
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Post by FromTheBeginning on Feb 13, 2017 14:17:08 GMT -5
Very simple -
The easy part - 9-9 in the league and win 2 games in the BET
The hard part - the chips have to fall where 9-9 is 5th place in the league and we are there alone.
Piece of cake!!!
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 13, 2017 16:22:48 GMT -5
Very simple - The easy part - 9-9 in the league and win 2 games in the BET The hard part - the chips have to fall where 9-9 is 5th place in the league and we are there alone. Piece of cake!!! 1. If we get to 9-9, one game in the BET would do it, since we would be playing a team above us. 2. If we end up 5th, winning 2 games in NYC would mean we beat Nova. A pretty tall order.
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Feb 13, 2017 16:33:46 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 13, 2017 16:41:24 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories. Under JT3, you are certainly correct. But, if you want to go back to 2001, we were a 10 seed. That's probably the most recent example of where we were near the bubble, unless you want to count 2014 (when we were in the first four out after losing to DePaul in the BET), but I don't think anybody in 2014 thought we had any real chance. The funny thing is IF we made it (and that's a gigantic "if") I could definitely see this year's team making the second weekend if the matchups worked in our favor.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 13, 2017 17:04:54 GMT -5
And if we were to make it, that would only happen because we had left our mediocrity behind and played much better down the stretch. If we mirror the inconsistency of the first 2 months of the season, we will not sniff the NCAA's.
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Post by aleutianhoya on Feb 13, 2017 17:07:45 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories. Under JTIII, I think you're right. In 00-01, we qualified as a 10 seed under Craig, so we were pretty darned close to the bubble. That year had a completely different feel though. We were 16-0 to start the year and ranked in the top 10 at the end of that streak, although our record was highly misleading due to our horrific schedule. We then remained ranked the rest of the year, but were fairly middling. We did finish the regular season 4-1 (before a BET first round lost to the Hall). So, in hindsight, we did need a pretty good run at the end to solidify our spot, though I don't think anyone knew it at the time. 96-97, under JTJr., is more akin to this year. We weren't ranked at all the entire year. We got hot at the end, winning our last five regular season games and 8 of our last 9 (and 1-1 in the BET). Again, we had to win almost all of those because we ended up with a 10 seed.
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beenaround
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Post by beenaround on Feb 13, 2017 18:01:08 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories. Under JTIII, I think you're right. In 00-01, we qualified as a 10 seed under Craig, so we were pretty darned close to the bubble. That year had a completely different feel though. We were 16-0 to start the year and ranked in the top 10 at the end of that streak, although our record was highly misleading due to our horrific schedule. We then remained ranked the rest of the year, but were fairly middling. We did finish the regular season 4-1 (before a BET first round lost to the Hall). So, in hindsight, we did need a pretty good run at the end to solidify our spot, though I don't think anyone knew it at the time. 96-97, under JTJr., is more akin to this year. We weren't ranked at all the entire year. We got hot at the end, winning our last five regular season games and 8 of our last 9 (and 1-1 in the BET). Again, we had to win almost all of those because we ended up with a 10 seed. Thanks for the refresh Aleutian..I think 96-97 seems like the closest comparison.
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FLHoya
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Post by FLHoya on Feb 13, 2017 19:10:02 GMT -5
One thing I haven't seen yet this year is the mock selection committee exercise where a bunch of college basketball writers simulate the entire process of choosing and seeding the field of 68. It usually happens around this time of year, and it's pretty well live-tweeted/recapped by those involved. That one always seems to be pretty insightful when it comes to how the (fake) committee distinguishes between the last several teams to make it in.
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Post by daytonahoya31 on Feb 13, 2017 20:47:46 GMT -5
I get the SOS & RPI talk but won't a good part of Gtown's chances depend on what other conference teams do the rest of the year?? If Providence also finishes @ 8-10 in the league would the committee give Prov a longer look over Gtown due to the season record? No, because Providence doesn't have the quality wins that we have
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 13, 2017 20:48:11 GMT -5
In 2014 we were the first four out with an inexplicable Wednesday big east tournament loss to DePaul. We were 18-15, 8-10 in the big east, with an RPI in the 50s before that loss. So we are not as far away as you might think, although I agree 18 wins is a must to feel reasonably safe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2017 8:32:18 GMT -5
I get the SOS & RPI talk but won't a good part of Gtown's chances depend on what other conference teams do the rest of the year?? If Providence also finishes @ 8-10 in the league would the committee give Prov a longer look over Gtown due to the season record? No, because Providence doesn't have the quality wins that we have Haha, but Providence has two wins over...Georgetown.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 14, 2017 10:16:20 GMT -5
Win on Sunday and there is a realistic path for the Hoyas. I think 9-9 and win in first round of BET seals the deal. One game at a time.
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bostonfan
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Post by bostonfan on Feb 14, 2017 10:27:18 GMT -5
The only thing that matters at this point is the next game. They really need to keep that "one game at a time" mentality if they are going to have any chance. They have shown over the last few weeks the ability to compete with, and beat, pretty much any team in the conference. They have also shown earlier in the year the ability to play really poorly for extended periods. Stay focused and locked in on defense and thing might work out for the Hoyas. Start looking too far ahead and they might end up being lucky to end up in the NIT!!! At this point the only game that matters is Sunday!!!
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dailey247
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Post by dailey247 on Feb 14, 2017 11:23:06 GMT -5
The only thing that matters at this point is the next game. They really need to keep that "one game at a time" mentality if they are going to have any chance. They have shown over the last few weeks the ability to compete with, and beat, pretty much any team in the conference. They have also shown earlier in the year the ability to play really poorly for extended periods. Stay focused and locked in on defense and thing might work out for the Hoyas. Start looking too far ahead and they might end up being lucky to end up in the NIT!!! At this point the only game that matters is Sunday!!! Well, that may be a good strategy for the players, and if so I hope they follow your advice, but I'm going to continue taking all the games for the rest of the season at the same time, and there is literally nothing anyone can do to stop me. I'm thinking the other people reading and posting in this thread titled "Tournament Chances" are going to be doing the same.
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TBird41
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 14, 2017 11:40:35 GMT -5
The only thing that matters at this point is the next game. They really need to keep that "one game at a time" mentality if they are going to have any chance. They have shown over the last few weeks the ability to compete with, and beat, pretty much any team in the conference. They have also shown earlier in the year the ability to play really poorly for extended periods. Stay focused and locked in on defense and thing might work out for the Hoyas. Start looking too far ahead and they might end up being lucky to end up in the NIT!!! At this point the only game that matters is Sunday!!! Well, that may be a good strategy for the players, and if so I hope they follow your advice, but I'm going to continue taking all the games for the rest of the season at the same time, and there is literally nothing anyone can do to stop me. I'm thinking the other people reading and posting in this thread titled "Tournament Chances" are going to be doing the same. Personally, I'm already thinking about who might be a good match-up for us in the first round of the NCAAs
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Post by RockawayHoya on Feb 14, 2017 11:47:46 GMT -5
The only thing that matters at this point is the next game. They really need to keep that "one game at a time" mentality if they are going to have any chance. They have shown over the last few weeks the ability to compete with, and beat, pretty much any team in the conference. They have also shown earlier in the year the ability to play really poorly for extended periods. Stay focused and locked in on defense and thing might work out for the Hoyas. Start looking too far ahead and they might end up being lucky to end up in the NIT!!! At this point the only game that matters is Sunday!!! If you're really worried that the team will take to heart what we are writing here on a message board, then you would think boxing out, not fouling jump shooters, and hitting free throws would have happened by now too.
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GUJook97
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 14, 2017 11:54:47 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories. No. And, I think you can go further and say that no team in history has made the tourney with our kind of profile/amount of likely losses, like TBird mentioned. But, that doesnt mean you cant root for it. And, I will say, bad/average teams have made runs through conference tourneys to make the tourney, so there is that, too.
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guru
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Post by guru on Feb 14, 2017 12:11:49 GMT -5
Have we ever had a team this bad/mediocre actually make the tourney? There must be an example, but I do not recall us sneaking in with a late BET run or as a very low seed. Either we've gotten in somewhat comfortably or been NIT or worse. Hope some of you have better memories. No. And, I think you can go further and say that no team in history has made the tourney with our kind of profile/amount of likely losses, like TBird mentioned. But, that doesnt mean you cant root for it. And, I will say, bad/average teams have made runs through conference tourneys to make the tourney, so there is that, too. The optimism is great, but a team arrives at 14-12 for a reason. We really haven't seen anything from this group that should make us think they will roll off five out of six wins. We know they have the talent to do so, we know they should be able to do it if they play well, but they have not demonstrated the ability to consistently execute in the kind of tight end-game situations that will certainly be required over the next few weeks. The computer numbers that have us on the precipice of a tourney bid are as troubling as they are heartening. We clearly have the pieces and the ability to be much better than our record. A run to a tourney bid by this group, led by this staff, would be among the most surprising things I've ever seen in nearly 40 years of pulling for the Hoyas.
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hoyainspirit
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 14, 2017 12:21:24 GMT -5
For some reason, I feel that if we had not given up that win to UMCP, this season would have turned out far differently.
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