Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Feb 25, 2015 14:29:55 GMT -5
On the other hand, the relative lack of cupcakes this year seems to have really helped our RPI. Anyone care to take a quick stab at how much lower it would be with a couple of 200 RPI teams added in? I plugged 2 200+ RPI games into our schedule using the RPI Wizard site. Not positive this is accurate but here's what I got. Currently our expected RPI is 21.5. assuming we won both games. adding home games against RPI #201 UC riverside and #202 Colgate would not change our predicted RPI of 21. adding home games against RPI #250 Hartford and #251 St. Peters would not chage out predicted RPI of 21. adding home games against RPI #298 Hampton and #299 SE Lousiana would drop us to a predicted RPI of 23. Even losing one of the worst games at home would've only dropped us to 27th. Losing both would get us down to 33rd. So yeah looks like we would've benefited from adding these games. Based on RPI Wizard it doesn't seem like it would help. If you run the simulator with our expected percentages you get to RPI/SOS of 20/3. You can add wins against Wright State (RPI 213, W-L 9-17) and IUPUI (248, 9-19) and drop our RPI/SOS to 24/8, or you can add Vermont (208, 15-11) and Grand Canyon (259, 14-12) which only drops us to 20/4. The key to gaming the RPI is to find the best team in abominable conferences, especially if they don't otherwise have an otherwise strong OOC slate so they can pick up some wins there, too. We've gone to the NEC (St. Francis NY, Mt. St. Mary's, Robert Morris are the current top 3; and they're KenPom's 28th best out of 33 conferences) well a few times. EDIT: Teams that qualify under this criteria: Bucknell and Lehigh are both top 3 in the Patriot and pretty light on seniors. Any of a number of good teams in the Big South (some of which we've also played before) like High Point, Winthrop, Radford. Any of those NEC teams again. Some good America East teams like Albany, Vermont, Stony Brook. Howard's pretty good for the MEAC and could probably generate some local interest. A fair number of these schools are local and probably have students that are friends with students who could become casual fans at Georgetown; I think that's a good way to get kids who might not otherwise care to at least be aware the season has started and maybe get them to a few games. Especially if that game is played in McDonough.
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SirSaxa on Feb 25, 2015 14:30:12 GMT -5
Thanks for this data on the RPI guys. I was wondering about this all season. I hate leaving possible games on the table for so many reasons, better record/winning % for optical purposes, player dveelopment and hopefully enhanced revenue. I would certainly like to see us reach 20 wins in the regular season, and given the RPI data, I see no downside. We are not losing to Colgate or whoever is an RPI 200 team. I really hope AD Reed and III revisit this strategy in the future. Not so sure about the additional revenue. Home game, so another expensive payment for the Verizon Center. Significant guaranteed payment to get the cupcake to play us. And limited home attendance because it would be a less desirable opponent. IF we net any additional revenue at all, my guess is it would be negligible. On the other hand, we have more time for the kids to attend class, read assignments and write papers. We used to play one major opponent (e.g. Duke) in season. That can be a tough assignment, but we had two occasions this season in which we had only one game per week. That kind of game would certainly generate more interest and income, but would add stress to team and we would probably lose half the time. It would be one more game on the schedule, but would not address your desire for two extra (nearly guaranteed) Ws.
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 25, 2015 15:21:04 GMT -5
On the other hand, the relative lack of cupcakes this year seems to have really helped our RPI. Anyone care to take a quick stab at how much lower it would be with a couple of 200 RPI teams added in? I plugged 2 200+ RPI games into our schedule using the RPI Wizard site. Not positive this is accurate but here's what I got. Currently our expected RPI is 21.5. assuming we won both games. adding home games against RPI #201 UC riverside and #202 Colgate would not change our predicted RPI of 21. adding home games against RPI #250 Hartford and #251 St. Peters would not chage out predicted RPI of 21. adding home games against RPI #298 Hampton and #299 SE Lousiana would drop us to a predicted RPI of 23. Even losing one of the worst games at home would've only dropped us to 27th. Losing both would get us down to 33rd. So yeah looks like we would've benefited from adding these games. Would Hayes get playing time? (ducks!)
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njhoya78
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by njhoya78 on Feb 25, 2015 17:48:27 GMT -5
Prhoya, you had to go there. . . .
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 25, 2015 17:56:05 GMT -5
Prhoya, you had to go there. . . . To not be controversial, I did not include Reggie.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Feb 25, 2015 19:17:13 GMT -5
If I am not mistaken, I believe our OOC games against Syracuse will be in January so that will add an out of conference game during the conference schedule.
That is interesting regarding RPI but I think discussing one or two additional games glosses over the point that the larger scheduling philosophy is most important. Any single game is only going to have so much effect but overall it is a big deal.
For example, there's a huge difference between our schedule this year and a schedule where you load up on 300 level teams or even lower 200 teams. JT3 has never done that which is why our tournament resume is usually stronger than it otherwise could be. Going forward, until the conference gets better established I think high level OOC games are a must. Given what we know now it seems certain we are going in that direction.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Feb 25, 2015 19:56:18 GMT -5
RPI is a math formula, it can be manipulated. The most important part of the equation is your own wins and then your opponents wins. Missouri is rpi 195 with a 7-20 record. South Carolina Upstate is 16-9 with a rpi of 217. Because South Carolina Upstate has 16 wins and Missouri only has 7, South Carolina Upstate actually is the better opponent for RPI purposes. The worst opponents to schedule are horrible BCS conference teams. They have the talent to beat you but hurt you RPI wise. The best teams to schedule are mid majors who will dominate their conferences. (This is obviously for RPI purposes only)
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Feb 25, 2015 20:12:14 GMT -5
I'll go on record and say you should never schedule a bottom tier major conference opponent. They do absolutely nothing for you, resume wise. They can only hurt you. Stanford lost to DePaul. That's an over 150 rpi loss. Huge negative on the resume. A win over them is worth, well, not much. Risk/reward is not good.
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hoyajinx
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by hoyajinx on Feb 25, 2015 20:42:57 GMT -5
RPI is a math formula, it can be manipulated. The most important part of the equation is your own wins and then your opponents wins. Missouri is rpi 195 with a 7-20 record. South Carolina Upstate is 16-9 with a rpi of 217. Because South Carolina Upstate has 16 wins and Missouri only has 7, South Carolina Upstate actually is the better opponent for RPI purposes. The worst opponents to schedule are horrible BCS conference teams. They have the talent to beat you but hurt you RPI wise. The best teams to schedule are mid majors who will dominate their conferences. (This is obviously for RPI purposes only) A team like Utah St. from our 2011 schedule is a great example. They go 30-3 during the regular season and conference tourney, but they really don't have a great shot of winning against the favorite.
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Post by sleepyjackson21 on Feb 25, 2015 20:57:20 GMT -5
Utah St. Perfect example. We beat them by almost 20 yet they were 30-3 and had a rpi of 16. On the resume that's a great win.
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DanMcQ
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Post by DanMcQ on Feb 25, 2015 22:22:34 GMT -5
You guys shoulda collaborated. Agreed. Bad leadership by Dan by not making sure there is proper alignment among posters. Too much siloing here. hm Sorry, was busy loaning Jack my roof rake.
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richfame
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by richfame on Feb 26, 2015 13:14:52 GMT -5
Im always extra nervous about games im going to be in attendance. My first live look at the hoyas this year!! Lets get a W! What's the over/under on how much of a Hoyatalk collection we need to crowdsource to get you to watch from Cafe 31 instead? Hi Dan, Watching the game with my 15 month old and it will be her first live game:) Def need to stick to the seats
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prhoya
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Post by prhoya on Feb 26, 2015 13:26:20 GMT -5
What's the over/under on how much of a Hoyatalk collection we need to crowdsource to get you to watch from Cafe 31 instead? Hi Dan, Watching the game with my 15 month old and it will be her first live game:) Def need to stick to the seats Good luck charm!!
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 26, 2015 13:36:45 GMT -5
Did anyone order their tickets through Georgetown Club of NY? If yes, did you get them yet? I ordered them back in early Feb but have not received any tickets yet and don't know how I get them (mail? will call? e-ticket?) Thanks.
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richfame
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Post by richfame on Feb 26, 2015 13:41:11 GMT -5
Hi Dan, Watching the game with my 15 month old and it will be her first live game:) Def need to stick to the seats Good luck charm!! She has her hoya gear ready my friend:0 Cant wait.
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sead43
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Post by sead43 on Feb 26, 2015 16:36:05 GMT -5
Did anyone order their tickets through Georgetown Club of NY? If yes, did you get them yet? I ordered them back in early Feb but have not received any tickets yet and don't know how I get them (mail? will call? e-ticket?) Thanks. I did not order through them for this game but in the past they've been at Will Call and they send an email with the Will Call instructions only a day or two before the game, so I wouldn't lose hope yet. I'd expect an email today or tomorrow.
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KHoyaNYC
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 26, 2015 17:48:48 GMT -5
Did anyone order their tickets through Georgetown Club of NY? If yes, did you get them yet? I ordered them back in early Feb but have not received any tickets yet and don't know how I get them (mail? will call? e-ticket?) Thanks. I did not order through them for this game but in the past they've been at Will Call and they send an email with the Will Call instructions only a day or two before the game, so I wouldn't lose hope yet. I'd expect an email today or tomorrow. Thanks. I called the St. John's tix office because I was told this was being coordinated with St. John's but they had no idea what I was talking about. Hopefully you are right.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Feb 26, 2015 21:38:22 GMT -5
More than against many other teams, I'd love for the Hoyas to come out fast for a change. The Johnnies are a team that will kill themselves. I just want our guys to help them do it. As always against them, transition D is huge and making them play halfcourt offense will really make things difficult for them. I expect Harrison to have at least 2 push-off fouls and 2 grabs on D within the first 5 minutes that won't be called. And at least 2, if not 3, travels throughout the game that will also not be whistled.
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drquigley
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Post by drquigley on Feb 27, 2015 11:12:24 GMT -5
Reading the articles link it is obvious that this is an absolute must win game for them. They will have trouble at Marquette (is Carlino available?) and unless Nova decides to lay down since they will probably have the conference title clinched in a week I don't see St John's beating them either. Their only hope of getting a bid is if they beat us and win at least one BET game. As I keep saying, and everyone keeps knocking me for saying, this St. John's team is just repulsive and doesn't deserve an NCCA bid. Tons of talent but lack of cohesion, smarts, selflessness and of course horrible coaching (which probably is the cause for the aforementioned). But like a cornered animal they are very dangerous when their backs are up against the wall. My first thought is not to get in a running game with them but we saw in our win at home if you do and can pound them early they will quit. I expect them to hang tough longer tomorrow because they need this win so badly but I would love for us to slaughter them and put both the players and coach out of their misery.
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Post by hoyalove4ever on Feb 27, 2015 11:55:32 GMT -5
I have to disagree about SJU's style of play. They have talented players and play a system that lets those guys play. The results are inconsistent, but still fairly good. I also hope that the Hoyas roll on Saturday, but I would like to see SJU make the NCAAs and win a game or two there.
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