GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 24, 2013 21:44:36 GMT -5
I can't believe we're actually complaining we got a hot team in the tourney. It's the NCAA tournament. Here's who the three seeds got
Harvard, Davidson, Northwestern St., Valparaiso
Three of those programs had pulled off big tourney upsets before. Guess who hadn't? Yep, the one who won.
So giving us a low major making their first appearance wasn't a screw job. We screwed ourselves.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 24, 2013 21:51:28 GMT -5
I can't believe we're actually complaining we got a hot team in the tourney. It's the NCAA tournament. Here's who the three seeds got Harvard, Davidson, Northwestern St., Valparaiso Three of those programs had pulled off big tourney upsets before. Guess who hadn't? Yep, the one who won. So giving us a low major making their first appearance wasn't a screw job. We screwed ourselves. I don't think anyone thinks it was a screw job. FGCU obviously earned a 15 seed during the season. It doesn't change the fact that at their best( the way they are playing now) they are clearly one of the best 16 teams in this tourney. Usually you get to avoid those teams as a 2 seed until at least the second weekend. VCU probably shouldn't have made the stupid tournament in 2011. Yet they were one of the best teams tournament that year. There is a reason no other 15 seed has made sweet sixteen before and it's because they have never been as good as FGCU. I don't think anyone is excusing the loss so much as lamenting the fact that once again we faced a team clearly better than their seed.
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Mar 24, 2013 21:54:16 GMT -5
Teams that beat us can go on runs because they get past the first game. This is Matt Millen/Doris Burke-quality analysis, based on nothing. Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed?
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 24, 2013 22:02:45 GMT -5
This is Matt Millen/Doris Burke-quality analysis, based on nothing. Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed? What do you mean? This definitely means that we are the BEST 2 seed ever to lose to a 15 seed. That sort of specious analysis makes some people around here feel better about a truly horrid, embarrassing loss.
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GIGAFAN99
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Post by GIGAFAN99 on Mar 24, 2013 22:04:44 GMT -5
This is Matt Millen/Doris Burke-quality analysis, based on nothing. Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed? Exactly. There's a lot more compression in these seeds now as evidenced by three 15s winning the last two years. So when you go into a game, you're going to be getting a team that might be a 15 or might be an 11. It's not Georgetown-specific. There's just more parity. So be prepared to take on a good team. Marquette drew Davidson and Butler and they're playing next week.
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Buckets
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Post by Buckets on Mar 24, 2013 22:11:40 GMT -5
Parity is increasing, the field's expansion to 68 means the best 15 is the committee's tenth worst team, as opposed to eighth or ninth worst in a field of 64 or 65, and that was the best 15 seed this year (based on Bracket Matrix). So by historical standards, that's a very good 15 and that's with only pre-Tournament knowledge. FGCU is nowhere near Lehigh of last year, though, for best 15 ever.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 24, 2013 22:20:38 GMT -5
This is Matt Millen/Doris Burke-quality analysis, based on nothing. Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed? Find me one 15 seed that has beaten 3 teams that have been ranked during the season, 2 of which were top five teams at various points and you might have a point that there have been other equally good 15 seeds. Not just beat, but blew out. All three of them. The fact is we choked yesterday. No one is disputing that. However, I certainly don't think if we had to play them again tomorrow that we would win. They aren't an average 15 seed and we seem to have a pattern of drawing teams that are much better than their seed, deserved or not. I think that's all anyone is saying.
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hoyatables
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Post by hoyatables on Mar 24, 2013 22:20:50 GMT -5
The counterargument to the "we keep getting stuck with Cinderellas-in-waiting" is probably that, by losing to these teams in the first round and giving them confidence, we help to fuel their little runs.
But yeah, I think that dumb (bad) luck is part of the problem. That's not to say that we couldn't have won any of these games, but whatever the chance is that we would be in the path of a "destined for greatness" team this many times in a row, we have managed to hit it.
I feel like it is all karmic payback for Green's non-call that allowed us to beat Vandy . . . .
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 24, 2013 22:23:10 GMT -5
The counterargument to the "we keep getting stuck with Cinderellas-in-waiting" is probably that, by losing to these teams in the first round and giving them confidence, we help to fuel their little runs. But yeah, I think that dumb (bad) luck is part of the problem. That's not to say that we couldn't have won any of these games, but whatever the chance is that we would be in the path of a "destined for greatness" team this many times in a row, we have managed to hit it. I feel like it is all karmic payback for Green's non-call that allowed us to beat Vandy . . . . This exactly. We also got quite lucky against UNC so maybe we have 3 more Cinderella's in our future.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 24, 2013 22:25:16 GMT -5
Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed? Exactly. There's a lot more compression in these seeds now as evidenced by three 15s winning the last two years. So when you go into a game, you're going to be getting a team that might be a 15 or might be an 11. It's not Georgetown-specific. There's just more parity. So be prepared to take on a good team. Marquette drew Davidson and Butler and they're playing next week. What do Davidson's and Butler's past successes have to do with anything? Is Stephen Curry playing for that Davidson team? The committee got it wrong this time. It just so happens they've also gotten it very wrong to our detriment in 2008 and 2011. That's all people are saying. The odds of being this unlucky are pretty long. But they are undeniable. This isn't some 2001 Hampton we lost to.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 24, 2013 22:25:58 GMT -5
Yes, there's no selection bias in the counterargument at all. FGCU has to be the greatest 15 seed of all time because they won two games. Or, very possibly, there have been other equally good 15 seeds that would've won a game against a 7 seed, except they never got the chance because the 2 seed won the game they were supposed to. Hell, maybe FGCU is the greatest 15 seed of all time. Maybe they should've been a 12. But shouldn't we, as a 2 seed, be able to go out and beat a 12 seed? What do you mean? This definitely means that we are the BEST 2 seed ever to lose to a 15 seed. That sort of specious analysis makes some people around here feel better about a truly horrid, embarrassing loss. Great strawman point.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 24, 2013 22:30:01 GMT -5
What do you mean? This definitely means that we are the BEST 2 seed ever to lose to a 15 seed. That sort of specious analysis makes some people around here feel better about a truly horrid, embarrassing loss. Great strawman point. Really? My goodness your entire argument is one giant... Oh god forget it.
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Post by Problem of Dog on Mar 24, 2013 22:32:32 GMT -5
Do you think we're better than FGCU? I do. So, no, I am not feeling any better.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 24, 2013 22:32:47 GMT -5
Exactly. There's a lot more compression in these seeds now as evidenced by three 15s winning the last two years. So when you go into a game, you're going to be getting a team that might be a 15 or might be an 11. It's not Georgetown-specific. There's just more parity. So be prepared to take on a good team. Marquette drew Davidson and Butler and they're playing next week. What do Davidson's and Butler's past successes have to do with anything? Is Stephen Curry playing for that Davidson team? The committee got it wrong this time. It just so happens they've also gotten it very wrong to our detriment in 2008 and 2011. That's all people are saying. The odds of being this unlucky are pretty long. But they are undeniable. This isn't some 2001 Hampton we lost to. I think this is the point. We aren't losing to bad teams. It doesn't mean we shouldn't still win, but if people are going to keep saying we are losing to double digit seeds it's fair to point out they clearly a level above your average double digit seed. Davidson, VCU, and now of course FGCU. Even NC State was a good 11 seed. Ohio is the only game that was as bad as it sounds/looks. J
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 24, 2013 22:33:40 GMT -5
Do you think we're better than FGCU? I do. So, no, I am not feeling any better. Would you want to play them again tomorrow? I wouldn't.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 24, 2013 22:36:32 GMT -5
Really? My goodness your entire argument is one giant... Oh god forget it. Do you know what strawman means?
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 24, 2013 22:46:27 GMT -5
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Post by drjimcooper on Mar 24, 2013 22:48:14 GMT -5
Edited. --Admin
Why was this edited? It was clearly a joke.
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chep3
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Post by chep3 on Mar 24, 2013 22:49:48 GMT -5
Find me one 15 seed that has beaten 3 teams that have been ranked during the season, 2 of which were top five teams at various points and you might have a point that there have been other equally good 15 seeds. Not just beat, but blew out. All three of them. The fact is we choked yesterday. No one is disputing that. However, I certainly don't think if we had to play them again tomorrow that we would win. They aren't an average 15 seed and we seem to have a pattern of drawing teams that are much better than their seed, deserved or not. I think that's all anyone is saying. I probably overstated the point. I just don't like anything that comes off as "woe is us, we got a bad draw", when it's happened so frequently. But, point taken that no one may be going that far in their assessment.
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Post by professorhoya on Mar 24, 2013 22:54:04 GMT -5
Find me one 15 seed that has beaten 3 teams that have been ranked during the season, 2 of which were top five teams at various points and you might have a point that there have been other equally good 15 seeds. Not just beat, but blew out. All three of them. The fact is we choked yesterday. No one is disputing that. However, I certainly don't think if we had to play them again tomorrow that we would win. They aren't an average 15 seed and we seem to have a pattern of drawing teams that are much better than their seed, deserved or not. I think that's all anyone is saying. I probably overstated the point. I just don't like anything that comes off as "woe is us, we got a bad draw", when it's happened so frequently. But, point taken that no one may be going that far in their assessment. I think it's an important point (That Davidson, VCU, FGCU are high caliber teams in their respective years) considering the narrative the last 3 days has been that JT3 and the players are Keystone Cops & clowns that are falling over themselves getting upset by community college caliber teams.
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