Hoyas destined to flop?

[hoyatmf02]

Saw this on ESPN Insider, but couldn't read the whole thing. Anybody got the Georgetown excerpt?

insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9014093/ncb-georgetown-hoyas-miami-hurricanes-michigan-wolverines-likely-disappoint

Seems bogus since in any one and done tournament, you can ride a player to the Elite Eight ala Seth Curry or a title like Magoo did. Still I'd love to see their stupid argument.

[PhillyHoya]

Sent the text to your PMs.

It basically says we don't score enough, we don't get enough offensive rebounds and we have too many turnovers to advance beyond the Sweet 16.

[Ranch Dressing]

I don't necessarily agree with the scoring and rebounding, but I do agree that in our possession value offense, we turn it over too much sometimes - more than the 2007 and 2008 teams. If you are in close contests, 4 avoidable turnovers means 4-5 points. When your games are often 60-55, that is a huge difference.

We need to protect the ball better than the opponent to advance.

[calhoya]

The key is going to be the play of Starks. His ball handling has ranged wildly lately from excellent to very poor. Otto is a constant. Lubick is a constant and so too is Hopkins. DSR is making steady progress, but the bottom-line is that Starks helps to keep other defenses honest. Without steady play and controlled play by Markel, the defense can collapse around Otto and every game will look like the twonRutgers games.

[Filo]

The article also has: Most likely seed: 2 ; NCAA championship odds: 1 percent; Final Four odds: 7 percent; Sweet 16 odds: 41 percent

The analysis admits that it is driven by points differential (as has been discussed in other threads recently, that is also why the Hoyas are not ranked as high with some other ratings services). Points outs the team's struggle to score but then says the offense is not bad, but limited in several ways (offensive rebounding and turnover rate).

My take -- not completely unfair if you are looking at in a vacuum, since O-reb and turnovers can be a problem for the team (although I did not think turnovers was as much of a problem this year - the article says we are bottom 4 in turnover rate in the BE).

There has been a very slow buy-in on this team. However, they just keep getting it done. And the analysis ignores everything else - like team defense!

[guru]

Beyond a first round defeat, I'm not sure I can see any NCAA tourney outcome that could be termed a "flop." Outsiders would hoot and holler obviously, and we'd all be very disappointed, of course, but this team has been such a huge and pleasant surprise, I already consider this season to be an enormous success.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Mar 4, 2013 11:43:58 GMT -5 guru said:

Beyond a first round defeat, I'm not sure I can see any NCAA tourney outcome that could be termed a "flop." Outsiders would hoot and holler obviously, and we'd all be very disappointed, of course, but this team has been such a huge and pleasant surprise, I already consider this season to be an enormous success.

From a fan's perspective, I think a lot of us want to see this team make it to the Sweet 16, at least, since it's been so long. Also, I think this team is more talented than some of the teams that lost in the past (like last year's), so my hope is at least a Sweet 16.

That said, I realize the NCAA is dependent on an awful lot of luck, too. I expect a full HoyaTalk meltdown if we don't make it past the first weekend (with all of the ridiculous posts that come with it, like the suggestions that we need a new coach).

[Deleted]

Yawn…..

[HoyaSinceBirth]

Mar 4, 2013 11:36:14 GMT -5 Ranch Dressing said:

I don't necessarily agree with the scoring and rebounding, but I do agree that in our possession value offense, we turn it over too much sometimes - more than the 2007 and 2008 teams. If you are in close contests, 4 avoidable turnovers means 4-5 points. When your games are often 60-55, that is a huge difference.

We need to protect the ball better than the opponent to advance.

This team has the 3rd lowest turnover % of any JT3 team. The only lower one was 2005-2006.

our turnover % is 19.8%. 2007 it was 22% and 2008 was 21.2%

2007's was actually the very worst mark under JT3 and we went to the final 4.

of course that offense was incredibly efficient when they didn't turn it over.

[Big Dog]

Mar 4, 2013 11:41:42 GMT -5 Filo said:

The article also has: Most likely seed: 2 ; NCAA championship odds: 1 percent; Final Four odds: 7 percent; Sweet 16 odds: 41 percent

The analysis admits that it is driven by points differential (as has been discussed in other threads recently, that is also why the Hoyas are not ranked as high with some other ratings services). Points outs the team's struggle to score but then says the offense is not bad, but limited in several ways (offensive rebounding and turnover rate).

My take -- not completely unfair if you are looking at in a vacuum, since O-reb and turnovers can be a problem for the team (although I did not think turnovers was as much of a problem this year - the article says we are bottom 4 in turnover rate in the BE).

There has been a very slow buy-in on this team. However, they just keep getting it done. And the analysis ignores everything else - like team defense!

Sounds like the same odds projected here:
www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracket-predictions/

Look, the team as it is playing now is much different than its been at other points in the season. III almost seems willing to scrap the standard offense when necessary to have Porter with the ball in his hands. Whittington isn't there. Jabril and Starks are getting significant minutes.

We have beaten teams with as much physical talent as we're going to see anywhere in the country and we've done it not just at home but on the road.

Yes, we could lose to anyone. In a one-off situation, when you incorporate the possibility of foul trouble or crazy hot 3-point shooting or an underseeded team carrying a Steph Curry/Steve Nash-type, nothing is certain.

But we go into the tournament with possibly the very best player in the entire country, and an incredibly suffocating defense. That's a better recipe than anything we've presented since at least 2008.

[FrazierFanatic]

Mar 4, 2013 11:43:58 GMT -5 guru said:

Beyond a first round defeat, I'm not sure I can see any NCAA tourney outcome that could be termed a "flop." Outsiders would hoot and holler obviously, and we'd all be very disappointed, of course, but this team has been such a huge and pleasant surprise, I already consider this season to be an enormous success.

The season is, of course, a great success given the expectations in October, and where we have come from since mid-January. That being said, as an almost certain 3 seed or better, we should absolutely expect to make it past the first weekend, and anything less would certainly be very disappointing. Not crazy meltdown disappointing (unless we choke away a big lead), but some gnashing of teeth.

[jgalt]

They are not destined to flop, but the history of preseason unranked teams in the tournament suggests playing below seed.

[This Just In]

All I can say is this, there is a 500 pound Gorilla (I even heard about the Gorilla this morning in passing conversation) in the room that shows up in March, every year since '08, the Gorilla is going to show up again around March 21st or 22nd, what is Hoya Nation going to do about it?

[guru]

Mar 4, 2013 12:15:30 GMT -5 This Just In said:

All I can say is this, there is a 500 pound Gorilla (I even heard about the Gorilla this morning in passing conversation) in the room that shows up in March, every year since '08, the Gorilla is going to show up again around March 21st or 22nd, what is Hoya Nation going to do about it?

Yes. The Gorilla's name is crisi-tunity. 14% of all people know that, Kent.

[Big Dog]

Mar 4, 2013 12:09:33 GMT -5 jgalt said:

They are not destined to flop, but the history of preseason unranked teams in the tournament suggests playing below seed.

Like VCU?

People do realize that KemPom ranking is not destiny, right?

Maybe we should just stop paying attention, since so many have come to conclusion this season couldn't possibly end well.

[Filo]

Mar 4, 2013 12:28:55 GMT -5 Big Dog said:

Mar 4, 2013 12:09:33 GMT -5 jgalt said:

They are not destined to flop, but the history of preseason unranked teams in the tournament suggests playing below seed.

Like VCU?

People do realize that KemPom ranking is not destiny, right?

Maybe we should just stop paying attention, since so many have come to conclusion this season couldn't possibly end well.

I am getting pretty close to that. I just refuse to stress out about losing in the tourney early again based on past performance. If it happens, it happens. But it won't. Because this team isn't going to let it happen.

[hoyainspirit]

Well, noted twerp slurp Kevin Sheehan on 980 just said that he hopes the Hoyas win out, grab a #1 seed, then lose in the first round to a 16 seed! He admitted he hates us. Said he would prefer Duke to win, and he's UMCP alum. Love that 980 coverage. At least Loverro called him out.

[hoyasaxa2003]

We need to be confident going into this year's tournament. Sure, we have had a series of bad results on March. So what? This is a different year, a different team, and a different set of opponents. We got the monkey off our backs last year by beating Belmont. Yes, we lost to NC State, but we were probably over-seeded and NC State underseeded. It wasn't a "bad" loss like Ohio.

I also refuse to subscribe to the "we could lose to anybody" mentality. Sure, we could lose to anybody, but so can every other team in the tournament. That's why the tournament is some portion luck and some portion skill and talent.

We have won 11 in a row, won against several good teams away (Syracuse, Connecticut), and we have defeated the better teams in the Big East (Marquette, Louisville). We are a very good team, and we should be able to beat anybody we will see in the first weekend. That doesn't mean we will beat them, but we certainly have the talent for it.

The stats like KenPom are also misleading, because they account for success for the year - they are not a statement on who is playing best NOW. Our defense has consistently been top 10 all year, pretty much, so we know that's solid. The offense is only ranked 81 on KenPom, but it's gone up substantially over the course of this winning streak. Are we playing better than an 81st ranked offense now? Yes, I would say so. Porter has hit his stride, we get contributions from other players, and our defense consistently keeps us in the game. I think the odds of a team like Ohio going off against us are much lower given our defense.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I like our chances better than in 2011 or 2012, for sure.

[Big Dog]

Mar 4, 2013 12:49:42 GMT -5 hoyasaxa2003 said:

I also refuse to subscribe to the "we could lose to anybody" mentality. Sure, we could lose to anybody, but so can every other team in the tournament. That's why the tournament is some portion luck and some portion skill and talent.

This is an important point that gets overlooked, and it is what I was trying to say with my earlier post--on any given day, any team in the tournament can lose. More often than not recently, the champ has not been some clear, consensus dominant team. To play in the tournament is to risk losing. This sure beats the Esherick era. Get the best seed you can and just go out there and play hard. That's all you can do.

[This Just In]

Mar 4, 2013 12:45:43 GMT -5 hoyainspirit said:

Well, noted twerp slurp Kevin Sheehan on 980 just said that he hopes the Hoyas win out, grab a #1 seed, then lose in the first round to a 16 seed! He admitted he hates us. Said he would prefer Duke to win, and he's UMCP alum. Love that 980 coverage. At least Loverro called him out.

Thanks for the info, I was tuning in out of 980 ESPN and missed that tidbit...