dreamhoya
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Post by dreamhoya on Mar 4, 2013 14:37:16 GMT -5
I think this team will at LEAST reach the Elite 8. GU has pretty good defensive guard play who can also score. The last few tourneys... not so good defensively at the guard position.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2013 14:37:19 GMT -5
First, I think there is nearly no chance we do not get past the first game in the NCAAs. At this point, our worst outcome is probably a #3 seed and we will beat any #14 in the bracket with defense, period. That said, my only concern is this team's over-reliance on Otto to save them on offense. If we are in a dogfight in the second round and Otto turns an ankle or gets in serious foul trouble, we will have big problems. I am not sure you would say that about the other Top 10 teams in the country. We more than any of the other elite teams, have the lowest margin of error (lower possessions) and are more reliant on one specific player. So I can see why people are doubting the Hoyas. I actually do not mind it because it gives our team that extra chip on their shoulder to continue to prove themselves. This may be true of Indiana, but probably not any other team. Is Michigan the same team with out Burke? We've seen Duke is a lesser team with out one of their players in the line up, what about if you took away Mclemore or Withey from Kansas, Olynk from Gonzaga? You take the best player off any team they're going to struggle. Especially mid game when you don't have time to practice a strategy to compensate for that loss. Well, Duke was still a top 10 team without Kelley. I do not think the Hoyas are a Top 35 team without Otto. My real point is we can lose a second round game if Otto is off/out, however, I am not sure that is the case with other Top 10 teams. Our success is very concentrated in one player and becoming more so lately. If it ain't broke don't fix it is nice in theory, but when it happens in the middle of a one game series, look out. Also, we have seen the opposite to be true when Kemba Walker carried UConn to the national title, but that type of run is so rare. More than anything, seeing Markel and DSR get back to being assertive and getting in the paint to either put up a floater or find an open man will really help. This last game against RU did not make me feel better about the team's deep NCAA prospects at all.
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Post by ColumbiaHeightsHoya on Mar 4, 2013 14:45:20 GMT -5
Danny Manning did it (KU). Syracuse did it (melo). MD did it (Dixon). Enough teams have accomplished riding the hot hand come tourney time. We just need the 1a option to step up whether that is Starks, DSR, Trawick, Lubick, or Hopkins. From one game to the next it could be a different guy but I think Starks is the key to a deep tourney run.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2013 14:46:47 GMT -5
First, I think there is nearly no chance we do not get past the first game in the NCAAs. At this point, our worst outcome is probably a #3 seed and we will beat any #14 in the bracket with defense, period. That said, my only concern is this team's over-reliance on Otto to save them on offense. If we are in a dogfight in the second round and Otto turns an ankle or gets in serious foul trouble, we will have big problems. I am not sure you would say that about the other Top 10 teams in the country. We more than any of the other elite teams, have the lowest margin of error (lower possessions) and are more reliant on one specific player. So I can see why people are doubting the Hoyas. I actually do not mind it because it gives our team that extra chip on their shoulder to continue to prove themselves. Can we really say we're "over-relying" on Porter? As Luke Winn has explained, the incredible thing about Otto is that we've used him more and more, his efficiency has stayed the same or gotten better. Perhaps the reason we are different than other elite teams in our reliance is so heavily on Otto is that he's simply better than any player on any of these other elite teams? I think this "over-reliance" talk is driven by the recent cold shooting from Markel and DSR. It isn't a problem of reliance, its an issue of shot-making by those 2. It would definitely help us if those two are knocking things down. Yes, Otto is the best player on the court and we should use him to our advantage at every opportunity. And yes, coming off some recent games where Otto has basically become our offense has started to influence my thinking about this team. In retrospect, the RU game was a really bad showing for Georgetown on offense. No one played well except Otto. All I am saying is Otto is human and will have an off night. Can we survive this against a good team in the NCAAs? Someone mentioned the Depaul game, but Depaul falls well outside of my definition of a good team. It is going to happen, I just hope we have enough offense to win if this happens against any single digit seed in the NCAAs.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 4, 2013 14:47:50 GMT -5
This may be true of Indiana, but probably not any other team. Is Michigan the same team with out Burke? We've seen Duke is a lesser team with out one of their players in the line up, what about if you took away Mclemore or Withey from Kansas, Olynk from Gonzaga? You take the best player off any team they're going to struggle. Especially mid game when you don't have time to practice a strategy to compensate for that loss. Well, Duke was still a top 10 team without Kelley. I do not think the Hoyas are a Top 35 team without Otto. My real point is we can lose a second round game if Otto is off/out, however, I am not sure that is the case with other Top 10 teams. Our success is very concentrated in one player and becoming more so lately. If it ain't broke don't fix it is nice in theory, but when it happens in the middle of a one game series, look out. Also, we have seen the opposite to be true when Kemba Walker carried UConn to the national title, but that type of run is so rare. More than anything, seeing Markel and DSR get back to being assertive and getting in the paint to either put up a floater or find an open man will really help. This last game against RU did not make me feel better about the team's deep NCAA prospects at all. Duke was ranked in the top 10 when Kelly was out. Duke was not one of the top ten teams in the country when Kelly was out. I don't think anyone thinks we are a great team without Otto. If for some reason we lose Otto it becomes a relevant converstation topic. Unless you plan on kidnapping him, injuring him, or making him academically ineligible, I'm not sure why you are trying to compare our team without our our best player (possibly best player in the country) to other teams with and without their best player. Why don't we start comparing our team without Markel or Lubick or DSR or Trawick with other teams? It's about as relevant.
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Post by hoyasaxa2003 on Mar 4, 2013 14:50:43 GMT -5
Even in the last 10 games, Porter's usage is 25.8, which is high but not ridiculously high (it's still lower than Hopkins usage up through the beginning of the conference season). When you consider his offense rating is 132.2 during that period, that's pretty amazing.
Thus, my points are: (a) Porter has been an amazing player over the last 10 games, and (b) even though he is getting the most usage of anybody else on our team, he is still not using so many possessions that the offense completely revolves around him to the exclusion of all else.
Still, Porter should be dominating our team at this point. He's by far the best player on our team, he should take the most shots, and the offense should revolve around him. We may not have the depth we had in 2007 (with two NBA quality talents in Green and Hibbert), but we are still a very good team.
The strength of Porter is that he's the type of guy who can carry the team to victory even if everybody else is playing badly. That's a very good thing, not a bad one. Sure, if Porter has an off day, it's going to hurt us - a lot - but that's true of many other teams, as well.
Also, Porter has been remarkably consistent all year. I have no reason to believe that he'll stop performing this way the rest of the season.
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guru
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Post by guru on Mar 4, 2013 15:02:18 GMT -5
All this fretting ignores a simple FACT: The Hoyas are a very, very good team. They have one great (top 5 nationally) player and a bunch of very effective players around him. This is a smart, heady and yes, talented roster. Porter has deservedly gotten the headlines, but the team defense has been just as important during this run.
I would be very surprised if our season ends during the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and I expect a berth in the Final Four. As I posted earlier in this thread, I already consider this season a great success. But just because I don't think a round of 32 exit would be a "flop" doesn't mean I'm skeptical about our postseason chances. I don't think huge, historical accomplishments are out of the question for this group.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 4, 2013 15:02:26 GMT -5
Danny Manning did it (KU). Syracuse did it (melo). MD did it (Dixon). Enough teams have accomplished riding the hot hand come tourney time. We just need the 1a option to step up whether that is Starks, DSR, Trawick, Lubick, or Hopkins. From one game to the next it could be a different guy but I think Starks is the key to a deep tourney run. Did that MD team have any NBAers? Dixon for a second before he flamed out; Lonny Baxter shot up the White House. Was Blake on that team?
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johnnysnowplow
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 4, 2013 15:09:07 GMT -5
All I am saying is Otto is human Are you sure about this?
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hoyainspirit
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When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
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Post by hoyainspirit on Mar 4, 2013 15:10:18 GMT -5
Blake indeed was on that team.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2013 15:12:28 GMT -5
Danny Manning did it (KU). Syracuse did it (melo). MD did it (Dixon). Enough teams have accomplished riding the hot hand come tourney time. We just need the 1a option to step up whether that is Starks, DSR, Trawick, Lubick, or Hopkins. From one game to the next it could be a different guy but I think Starks is the key to a deep tourney run. Cuse did have McNamara (13ppg) and Hakeem Warrick (15ppg). UM had Baxter (15ppg), Wilcox (12ppg) and Mouton (11ppg). Those 1a options were 1st or 2nd team all-conference players. The hot hand usually has some help. I would like to see Starks take that role on, rather than wait for it to happen organically. I do not want the offense to be set screens and motion to get Otto open and watch him shoot. I fear some of our guys are losing their edge.
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Cambridge
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Post by Cambridge on Mar 4, 2013 15:16:46 GMT -5
Porter only just recently cracked KenPom's discussion of KPOY (his numbers based POY), because Porter doesn't use enough possessions up until recently. He is now #9. The contenders all use upwards of 30% of possessions, while Otto is sitting at around 25%. He's only on the list, despite that lack of possessions, because his efficiency is so high. So, no, I don't think we are relying too much on Otto. Give him the ball more, if anything.
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This Just In
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Post by This Just In on Mar 4, 2013 15:18:54 GMT -5
If we're a 1, we will lose to a 16. It's just gonna happen. Georgetown being Georgetown. Problem of Dog, despite what some posters think, I know you are not a troll and I feel your pain...no one, and I mean no who is a Hoya fan cannot be frustrated by what has happened to Georgetown in the post-season since the 2007 Final Four run. You are entitled to your opinion and are some what correct in your cynicism until the Hoyas take care of the 500lb Gorrilla in the room.
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 4, 2013 15:20:57 GMT -5
All this fretting ignores a simple FACT: The Hoyas are a very, very good team. They have one great (top 5 nationally) player and a bunch of very effective players around him. This is a smart, heady and yes, talented roster. Porter has deservedly gotten the headlines, but the team defense has been just as important during this run. I would be very surprised if our season ends during the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and I expect a berth in the Final Four. As I posted earlier in this thread, I already consider this season a great success. But just because I don't think a round of 32 exit would be a "flop" doesn't mean I'm skeptical about our postseason chances. I don't think huge, historical accomplishments are out of the question for this group. I agree. We all have to remember we aren't supposed to be here. Pretty much all of the teams in the top ten were ranked to start the season and Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Florida Kansas, and Michigan were in the top ten. We are crashing their party so to speak and should be enjoying it! We shouldn't be fretting over being overrated trying to fend off the great underdogs of Louisville, Syracuse, and Florida from overtaking us in the polls or on the court. We should be celebrating our improvement and complete and total overachievement of expectations regardless of what happens in the tournament. If we underachieve our seed again in the tournament so what? We were in a position earlier where the seemed far from a definite. We've completely over achieved compared to every other team in the top ten except Miami so let's act like we are.
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alleninxis
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Post by alleninxis on Mar 4, 2013 15:28:27 GMT -5
I don't buy that the Hoyas are 'destined' to flop nor is their some curse or that III is a poor tournament coach now. Same way that if we had taken a step back in 2008 before the tournament - realize that it was not Georgetown's birth right under III to 'play well at the right time'. The 'we always play better late' mantra lasted on here for quite a while - at least even into mid-season of 2009 until the bottom fell out. And then recently everyone has been scared to death of late Feb/March. Sample size in March is awfully small and you'll have a mixed bag more often than not. Doesn't help when you run into the VCU buzz-saw or Steph Curry. Ohio, for me..is the one that was really inexcusable and stings. But beyond that? Nc St game I felt we did give away..but Stuff happens, you just get beat sometimes. What is it worrisome is this program does not often pull away due to style - and that lends itself to getting into some dicey situations early on. But I do believe this team defends well enough and has enough of a big time player (who is now thriving and embracing that role) - that I'm optimistic for getting out of the first weekend and possibly advancing further. In any given game, Otto is likely to have an off game.
I don't agree, I'd actually say it's become very unlikely. Unless you mean Foul trouble or him rolling an ankle? In that case, sure. But performance wise..he's a rock at this point.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 15:35:38 GMT -5
If we're a 1, we will lose to a 16. It's just gonna happen. Georgetown being Georgetown. Problem of Dog, despite what some posters think, I know you are not a troll and I feel your pain...no one, and I mean no who is a Hoya fan cannot be frustrated by what has happened to Georgetown in the post-season since the 2007 Final Four run. You are entitled to your opinion and are some what correct in your cynicism until the Hoyas take care of the 500lb Gorrilla in the room. Awwww..…lol There is no 500LB gorilla in the room. It’s a one and done tournament anything can happen. Just got to hope we play our best when needed and luck fall on our side if necessary...
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 4, 2013 15:39:25 GMT -5
Danny Manning did it (KU). Syracuse did it (melo). MD did it (Dixon). Enough teams have accomplished riding the hot hand come tourney time. We just need the 1a option to step up whether that is Starks, DSR, Trawick, Lubick, or Hopkins. From one game to the next it could be a different guy but I think Starks is the key to a deep tourney run. Cuse did have McNamara (13ppg) and Hakeem Warrick (15ppg). UM had Baxter (15ppg), Wilcox (12ppg) and Mouton (11ppg). Those 1a options were 1st or 2nd team all-conference players. The hot hand usually has some help. I would like to see Starks take that role on, rather than wait for it to happen organically. I do not want the offense to be set screens and motion to get Otto open and watch him shoot. I fear some of our guys are losing their edge. Have you actually looked at the boxscore of our games during the last 11? Otto is rarely the only guy scoring. Actually it only happened in 2 games during our streak. Syracuse and Rutger and Rutgers was strange because over half Otto's points came from the free throw line, so I personally don't really count it. And even then there were two guys with 9. Uconn- Markel had 19 DSR 14 Cincy- Markel 17 Otto 16 DSR 14 Marquette- Otto 21 Markel 16 Lubick 10 Rugers round 1- Markel 20 Otto 19 Hopkins 14 DSR 13 St Johns Round 2- Lubick 16 Starks 12 Porter 11 Trawick 12 Seton Hall- Otto 20 Markel 16 DSR 12 Louisville- Markel 17 Otto 17 Notre Dame- Porter 19 DSR 14 I didn't include the Depaul game because he didn't really play or even have an effect on it. As others have pointed out Porter doesn't use an unusually high percentage of our offensive possessions and less than Hopkins was using earlier in the year. The myth that Porter is our only offense is simply not true, he's is our most consistent and effective. Almost every night at least one person has stepped up and it's usually Markel. Yet he get's no mention from anyone anywhere.
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johnnysnowplow
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 4, 2013 15:42:42 GMT -5
This talk of relying too much on Otto is getting a little blown out of proportion. As some have pointed out, his usage rate is still relatively low. And at what do we start accepting that this isn't a hot streak, that he's really just this good? I think a lot of us to some extent are waiting for that huge meltdown of a game to come where he goes like 1-12. I thought that way for a while, but I don't think it's coming anymore. The kid just flat out makes shots. As long as our guys keep getting him the ball where he can make a play, I have no doubt he'll continue to play at this level for the rest of the season.
And I think the perception of Markel struggling is getting a little overblown as well. He had 19 against UConn, 17 against Cincy, 8 and 7 against Depaul where he really didn't need to score because of DSR. We all know nodoby else but Otto did anything against Cuse, but I still don't think Markel played poorly. And Rutgers, we had 33 FGA as a team. Otto and Moses combined for 27 FTs so no one else really had any meaningful chances to put up any numbers. Yes, he's had some issues handling the ball recently which do need to be cleaned up, but if the issue is who is going to score if Otto lays an egg one game, I'm not so worried about it. Basically, on any given night, I'll take Markel or DSR (or both) as my 1a. They are both very capable scorers. Our defense will keep us in any game, and the chances that all 3 of them lay eggs in the same game is pretty slim.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 4, 2013 15:49:35 GMT -5
This has been one heck of a "rebuilding" year so far, hasn't it? We are talking about the same team that has gotten double digit rebounding efforts from a guy that was nailed to the bench at the beginning of the year, right? And a freshman that went off for 33? And the same team that played UConn, led by Otto Porter with 22 points. He did it all! Oh wait... Kel had 19 (2 steals also), DSR had 14 (3 steals), Mikael had 8 and 4 and Nate, while he also had some bad plays, contributed 9/7/6. And we didn't even look particularly good for stretches in that game. That one-dimensional team? One ugly slapfest with Rutgers and this is the reaction? That sounds like some of the Hoya fans I know....
On edit - what sleepy said but I didn't read until just now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 15:51:49 GMT -5
If Uconn can win with Kemba Walker and the next top scorer being a freshman Jeremy Lamb at 11 a game?? Well
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