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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 4, 2013 15:52:11 GMT -5
I agree. We all have to remember we aren't supposed to be here. Pretty much all of the teams in the top ten were ranked to start the season and Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Florida Kansas, and Michigan were in the top ten. We are crashing their party so to speak and should be enjoying it! We shouldn't be fretting over being overrated trying to fend off the great underdogs of Louisville, Syracuse, and Florida from overtaking us in the polls or on the court. We should be celebrating our improvement and complete and total overachievement of expectations regardless of what happens in the tournament. If we underachieve our seed again in the tournament so what? We were in a position earlier where the seemed far from a definite. We've completely over achieved compared to every other team in the top ten except Miami so let's act like we are. It's funny, most of us like to think of ourselves as in the discussion with teams like UNC, UL, Duke, etc (at least we do when we are talking about being the Marquee team in the New Big East) and yet we have this "nice to be here" attitude about being in position to be a #1 seed. Those are the teams that underachieve in the NCAAs for sure. You are right sleepy among many others. I will just give up on my point. I will hope that Otto continues to single-handedly win games for us for the next month and enjoy the ride. Just because my expectations for the Hoyas is now the Final Four, given the seeding we are about to get, I need to realize this board is no place for having critical discussion about what the team needs to do better to reach what the real goal of every college basketball team should be - a National Championship. There's your problem right there - if you think Otto is single-handedly winning these games, you're not watching very closely. Otto does the bulk of the scoring, yes, but it takes more than just one guy scoring some points to win 11 in a row. There are many other valuable pieces on this team that have gotten us to where we are. DSR made as many big plays in crunch time against UConn as Otto did. Kid was phenomenal when it looked like we were all but finished. Performances like that have come consistently from our supporting cast throughout the year, and I think in claiming Otto is winning these by himself, you are inherently discrediting the contributions of everyone else. And yes, we have the best player in the country who is an absolute nightmare to defend all over the floor. He is wildly efficient and no combination of coach/players has been able to figure out how to make him miss shots yet. By all means, keep giving this kid the ball.
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tashoya
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Post by tashoya on Mar 4, 2013 15:54:33 GMT -5
Not to mention, when a guy is playing at the level Porter is playing at, he OTTO have the ball!
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 4, 2013 15:57:51 GMT -5
It's funny, most of us like to think of ourselves as in the discussion with teams like UNC, UL, Duke, etc (at least we do when we are talking about being the Marquee team in the New Big East) and yet we have this "nice to be here" attitude about being in position to be a #1 seed. Those are the teams that underachieve in the NCAAs for sure. You are right sleepy among many others. I will just give up on my point. I will hope that Otto continues to single-handedly win games for us for the next month and enjoy the ride. Just because my expectations for the Hoyas is now the Final Four, given the seeding we are about to get, I need to realize this board is no place for having critical discussion about what the team needs to do better to reach what the real goal of every college basketball team should be - a National Championship. There's your problem right there - if you think Otto is single-handedly winning these games, you're not watching very closely. Otto does the bulk of the scoring, yes, but it takes more than just one guy scoring some points to win 11 in a row. There are many other valuable pieces on this team that have gotten us to where we are. And yes, we have the best player in the country who is an absolute nightmare to defend all over the floor. He is wildly efficient and no combination of coach/players has been able to figure out how to make him miss shots yet. By all means, keep giving this kid the ball. Thank you. Anyone who thinks Otto has single-handely won 11 straight Big East games for us, well, I don't know what to say. It's simply wrong no matter how you slice it.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 4, 2013 15:59:29 GMT -5
I need to realize this board is no place for having critical discussion about what the team needs to do better to reach what the real goal of every college basketball team should be - a National Championship. Stop pouting. The problem isn't that no one wants to have a critical discussion about what the team needs to do better. Its that people think your analysis on that issue is wanting.
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Post by hoyatmf02 on Mar 4, 2013 16:06:59 GMT -5
This over-reliance concern is a misnomer because of Otto's huge games in the last three. Even though he's obviously our leading scorer, these last three games stand out. And even there, if Markel makes the front end against UConn, he is our leading scorer that game and not Otto.
I think this team is actually really put together to make a run for several reasons. (1) We have an elite team defense. We really get stops when we need them, and we have been consistent in that effort. (2) We have a star. As others ahve mentioned, you can ride a star pretty far in the tournament as Davidson did with Curry, UConn did with Kemba, Cuse did with Melo, and Memphis did with Rose. Last year, I remember wanting Hank to take the last shot in the NC State game, because he was the senior and he had played so well in the BET. But now there is no question where we need to go to win the game and most temas need that kind of scorer, but don't have it. We do. (3) We have two other dynamic scorers. Markel and DSR can score a ton of points and have on occasions over this stretch. (4) Our role players are really good at what they do. Jabril plays great defense, attacks the basket and scores when he needs to. Nate is the ultimate glue guy with hustle points, good defense, rebounding and assists. And while Mikael is much maligned, folks need to realize that we knew we would be playing center by Committee this year. Coach has done a great job of using Mikael and Moses to stabilize the center position really well. Together they are quite serviceable together at center. (5) Great coaching. JTII does not panic and neither do his teams. We could have lost our composure against Cuse and certainly in overtime against UConn, but we kept playing and did what was necessary to win. We have the resolve to win in March, which makes all the difference in the world.
I think everyone in college basketball is surprised by what we've been able to do this season which is why we will continue to be downgraded, but we have already done a great job this season. Here's hopign we get these next two and close out the Big East in style. march will take care of itself.
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Filo
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Post by Filo on Mar 4, 2013 16:09:07 GMT -5
I agree. We all have to remember we aren't supposed to be here. Pretty much all of the teams in the top ten were ranked to start the season and Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Florida Kansas, and Michigan were in the top ten. We are crashing their party so to speak and should be enjoying it! We shouldn't be fretting over being overrated trying to fend off the great underdogs of Louisville, Syracuse, and Florida from overtaking us in the polls or on the court. We should be celebrating our improvement and complete and total overachievement of expectations regardless of what happens in the tournament. If we underachieve our seed again in the tournament so what? We were in a position earlier where the seemed far from a definite. We've completely over achieved compared to every other team in the top ten except Miami so let's act like we are. It's funny, most of us like to think of ourselves as in the discussion with teams like UNC, UL, Duke, etc (at least we do when we are talking about being the Marquee team in the New Big East) and yet we have this "nice to be here" attitude about being in position to be a #1 seed. Those are the teams that underachieve in the NCAAs for sure. You are right sleepy among many others. I will just give up on my point. I will hope that Otto continues to single-handedly win games for us for the next month and enjoy the ride. Just because my expectations for the Hoyas is now the Final Four, given the seeding we are about to get, I need to realize this board is no place for having critical discussion about what the team needs to do better to reach what the real goal of every college basketball team should be - a National Championship. So critical discussion is you making blanket statements in response to one post? I do not think it means what you think it means.
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AltoSaxa
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Post by AltoSaxa on Mar 4, 2013 16:13:07 GMT -5
I would add, unlike prior years, our offense is really clicking. This presents a problem to teams outside of the Big East. Our offensive style is not easy to prepare for and will help us in the tournament.
Second, our defense has been excellent and when the offensive output is down our best offense is our very good defense.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2013 16:17:26 GMT -5
I get it, I get it. I will back down and retract my posts. The Hoyas are great, and Otto has plenty of help. All these facts and figures have proven me wrong. I get it, I can admit it.
I hope to see this balance play out against Nova this week. Can I at least have that if they play like they did at RU or Cuse against Nova and Cuse this week that there could be at least a symptom of something wrong?
I do like the fact the board is engaged and riled up. It had been quiet for a while.
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NCHoya
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Post by NCHoya on Mar 4, 2013 16:19:59 GMT -5
I need to realize this board is no place for having critical discussion about what the team needs to do better to reach what the real goal of every college basketball team should be - a National Championship. Stop pouting. The problem isn't that no one wants to have a critical discussion about what the team needs to do better. Its that people think your analysis on that issue is wanting. I know, I came off like a Edited. However, I cannot stand the whole - "happy to be here" mentality anymore. Not when you are the #5 team in the country. It is time to raise expectations.
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jgalt
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Post by jgalt on Mar 4, 2013 16:20:16 GMT -5
Im going to repost this because it is very relevant to this discussion: fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/in-n-c-a-a-tournament-overachievers-often-disappoint/Its not destiny, its just that history is not on the Hoyas side. Also here is a very interesting summary of some of the stuff that went on at the Sloan Conference (the premier conference on Sports Analytics): www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=417374The first part is the very important and you should keep it in mind when thinking about what happens in individual games in every sport. The title of this thread is very misleading. There is no destiny in sports. The title would be better if it said "How likely is it that the Hoyas underperform their seed?". The answer to that is likely.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Mar 4, 2013 16:20:53 GMT -5
I get it, I get it. I will back down and retract my posts. The Hoyas are great, and Otto has plenty of help. All these facts and figures have proven me wrong. I get it, I can admit it. I hope to see this balance play out against Nova this week. Can I at least have that if they play like they did at RU or Cuse against Nova and Cuse this week that there could be at least a symptom of something wrong? I do like the fact the board is engaged and riled up. It had been quiet for a while. If we play like we did @cuse this week, we go 2-0. Our team defense in that game was suffocating.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 4, 2013 16:27:43 GMT -5
If we get a 1 seed, it's very likely we under-perform. Simply because you have to make the final four to simply perform. With such high expectations, there's more downside than upside.
People are taking this Pre-Season Top 25/Talent stuff a bit too definitively.
But the general gist is right: this team does not have the talent profile of a typical Final Four team. So what? Neither did George Mason and a bunch of other teams. Yes, making the Final Four without 2-3 NBA players is tougher and less likely, but this if any team is going to do it, it's this group.
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AltoSaxa
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Post by AltoSaxa on Mar 4, 2013 16:34:55 GMT -5
If we get a 1 seed, it's very likely we under-perform. Simply because you have to make the final four to simply perform. With such high expectations, there's more downside than upside. People are taking this Pre-Season Top 25/Talent stuff a bit too definitively. But the general gist is right: this team does not have the talent profile of a typical Final Four team. So what? Neither did George Mason and a bunch of other teams. Yes, making the Final Four without 2-3 NBA players is tougher and less likely, but this if any team is going to do it, it's this group. I agree, on paper, we do not have the "talent" of a final four team but ... 1. This team is clearly better than the sum of its individual parts. 2. Under-performing as a one seed is a self-fulfilling prophecy. When you are deemed the top anything less is the bottom. 3. The sixth man on this team is team defense. 4. As a fan I feel like what the hell, we are playing with house money ... let it ride.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 4, 2013 16:36:58 GMT -5
To get into it a bit more detailed:
For a 1 seed to meet seed expectations, they must win four games. I set those chances of winning at 100% (it's probably lower for the 16, but I'm being convservative), 70%, 60%, and 55%. I think those are about right, probably a bit in the 1 seed's favor.
The chance that the 1 seed wins all four games to MEET expectations is 23%. The chance it wins another 50/50 game to exceed is 12%. There's a 77% chance ANY 1 seed misses expectations.
The chance that a 2 seed meets expectations? I'm estimating about a 40% chance of making the Elite Eight. And, at best, a 20% chance at exceeding.
The word expectation isn't fair here. Being favored in four games doesn't mean you are favored to go 4-0.
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Mar 4, 2013 16:37:38 GMT -5
I know, I came off like a Edited. However, I cannot stand the whole - "happy to be here" mentality anymore. Not when you are the #5 team in the country. It is time to raise expectations. This I agree with you on. I am not happy to be here. This team is really, really good and has the recipe for tournament success. Sweet 16 is my minimum expectation. Anything less will be utterly disappointing. There will probably come a time in the offseason where it sets in that this was an incredible season given the expectations and performance at the outset, but right now is not the time for that. Right now this team is playing great ball and we have the best player in the country. I want/expect postseason success at this point.
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Post by hoyatmf02 on Mar 4, 2013 16:42:39 GMT -5
Still, i feel like all of this "realism" as some folks call it, is pretty smug and more useful after the season is over. The fact is that this team is better than any of us could have imagined after winn 11 straight in one of the toughest conferences in the nation, it's not incoceivable to think we could win six in the big dance. I have co-workers and sportscasters and lots of other people to try and rain on the parade. i think most people come here for information and community. that includes a tiny bit of delusion. but its pretty weird that some folks want to point out every reason why a team ranked number five in the country on march 4th will lose as opposed to considering all of the reasons we might win this whole danm thing.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 4, 2013 16:50:32 GMT -5
Two wins in the NCAAs is what's needed here to calm everybody down. Losing on the first weekend again will be a morale disaster around here and a huge national story of embarrassment.
I think people realize that once you get to the Sweet 16 its all good teams and anything can happen. For one thing, particularly this year, I'd bet my life that at least 1 no. 1 or no. 2 seed will be gone by the end of the first weekend. So it won't be the first big upset and thus won't get the most attention.
Maybe the one exception to the notion that losing in the Sweet Sixteen isn't an embarrassing disaster would be to lose to some kind of garbage double-digit seed that won like a 12 vs. 13 game in the second round.
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SFHoya99
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Post by SFHoya99 on Mar 4, 2013 16:51:20 GMT -5
Still, i feel like all of this "realism" as some folks call it, is pretty smug and more useful after the season is over. The fact is that this team is better than any of us could have imagined after winn 11 straight in one of the toughest conferences in the nation, it's not incoceivable to think we could win six in the big dance. I have co-workers and sportscasters and lots of other people to try and rain on the parade. i think most people come here for information and community. that includes a tiny bit of delusion. but its pretty weird that some folks want to point out every reason why a team ranked number five in the country on march 4th will lose as opposed to considering all of the reasons we might win this whole danm thing. There's a lot of reason for realism: 1. My post above. Even if the Hoyas were really the best team in the country, the chances of winning a single elimination tourney are lower than you'd think. In other words, some of this realism is just true. 2. Managing personal expectations. Winning when you don't expect it is awesome. Winning when you do is a relief. Losing when you do is awful. A lot of folks manage personal expectations because you'll be happier no matter what when the game is over. 3. Managing board expectations. If we were to be a #1 seed and lose in the Sweet Sixteen, though that is not unusual, unexpected or rare across many top-flight programs, there would be a slew of trolls pounding this boards blaming the offensive system/recruiting and the coaching staff and calling for massive changes. But not setting "Final Four or Bust" expectations, people hope to avoid the annoying trolls if we do have a reasonable loss.
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Big Dog
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Post by Big Dog on Mar 4, 2013 16:52:53 GMT -5
And by the way, this used to be the time of year around here when crazy people would tell us how they'd rather win the BET than get to the Sweet Sixteen or Final Four. I think given where the program is and what the recent NCAA reputation is, all of us would trade a Thursday BET loss for a Sweet Sixteen berth right now if given the chance.
Part of me thinks we need to lose one more time to get it out of our system before the NCAAs, but of course that's journalistic nonsense, not real analysis. Still, we're talking about a 22-game winning streak here to win the national championship. If that happens, this will be one of the all-time great teams and one of the biggest turnaround stories around.
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Boz
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Post by Boz on Mar 4, 2013 16:54:00 GMT -5
Not to mention, when a guy is playing at the level Porter is playing at, he OTTO have the ball! Please curl your fingers into a fist and hurl it at your face at a high velocity. Because I am not there to do it for you.
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