Post by Big Dog on Feb 14, 2013 14:27:31 GMT -5
I think we're at a point now where this can be its own thread.
After last night's developments, I would say that it is highly
unlikely that any team in conference is going to finish with a record of 15-3. The only 3 teams who could do it--us, Syracuse, and Marquette--play 3 more games amongst each other, including two on the road for Cuse where they've been bad lately. Marquette gets their toughest games at home (Pitt, Cuse, ND), but they're 2-5 on the road this season and have 4 road games left (Seton Hall, Nova, Rutgers, SJU). They simply aren't going to run the table. We all know the Hoyas brutal road schedule as well.
I'd say that the 2 most likely scenarios are 1) somebody goes 14-4 to win the conference outright, or 2) there's a jumbled mess sorted out by tiebreakers at 13-5.
Here's how I'd rank teams by their chances of going 14-4, along with a prediction of the final record for each. Note: this is NOT a predicted order of league finish. It is ONLY speculation about who is most likely to win 14 games in the conference.
1. Pitt. They'd have to run the table, but they are playing very well and if they can get revenge in Milwaukee against Marquette this weekend, they'll be significant favorites the rest of the way (ND, @sju, USF, Nova, @depaul). I think 13-5 is the best bet though.
2. Syracuse. If they hold serve at home, which they've done for more than 2 years, they would need to go 2-1 at Seton Hall, Marquette, and Georgetown. I think they'll go 1-2 in those games--and there's also the possibility they'll lose at home to Louisville, who always seems to play their best in late Feb/March (kinda the opposite of recently high-ranked Syracuse teams). So the prediction here is 13-5 as well.
3. Marquette. They also have a long winning streak at home, so if they can hold serve there over Pitt, ND, and Cuse, they just need to go 3-1 against a weaker slate of road team. I'm already on record saying I think they'll beat Pitt and Cuse at home, and I have no respect for ND, so 14-4 is within reach. But I don't think they'll do better than 2-2 in those road games, and even if they do, there's a fair shot they'll drop one of those tough ones at home. I think its a coin toss between 12-6 and 13-5 here.
4. Louisville. They're going to lose one, probably at Syracuse, even though their schedule is otherwise relatively soft. I'll go 13-5 here.
5. Connecticut. Maybe the easiest schedule of all these teams--they get Georgetown at home and their toughest road game left is Cincinnati, but otherwise they play a bunch of bottom-feeders. But they're too inconsistent to run the table and get to 14 wins. Seems like they should be thrilled with 12-6, but I'd put my money on 11-7.
6. Georgetown. I'd call it the most difficult schedule left, but that's in part because our home court advantage doesn't rate up there with somebody like Syracuse or Marquette, so even though those teams play as many quality teams as we do, the home/road balance is not in our favor. I think we'll split with Syracuse and go 2-1 vs. Conn/Cincy/Nova and I think everyone around here would have to be extremely pleased with that result. Throw in the DePaul and Rutgers gimmes and that's 13-5. An excellent season.
7. Notre Dame. @ Pitt, @ MU, @ Louisville? 11-7 is their ceiling and I could imagine 10-8 quite readily.
After last night's developments, I would say that it is highly
unlikely that any team in conference is going to finish with a record of 15-3. The only 3 teams who could do it--us, Syracuse, and Marquette--play 3 more games amongst each other, including two on the road for Cuse where they've been bad lately. Marquette gets their toughest games at home (Pitt, Cuse, ND), but they're 2-5 on the road this season and have 4 road games left (Seton Hall, Nova, Rutgers, SJU). They simply aren't going to run the table. We all know the Hoyas brutal road schedule as well.
I'd say that the 2 most likely scenarios are 1) somebody goes 14-4 to win the conference outright, or 2) there's a jumbled mess sorted out by tiebreakers at 13-5.
Here's how I'd rank teams by their chances of going 14-4, along with a prediction of the final record for each. Note: this is NOT a predicted order of league finish. It is ONLY speculation about who is most likely to win 14 games in the conference.
1. Pitt. They'd have to run the table, but they are playing very well and if they can get revenge in Milwaukee against Marquette this weekend, they'll be significant favorites the rest of the way (ND, @sju, USF, Nova, @depaul). I think 13-5 is the best bet though.
2. Syracuse. If they hold serve at home, which they've done for more than 2 years, they would need to go 2-1 at Seton Hall, Marquette, and Georgetown. I think they'll go 1-2 in those games--and there's also the possibility they'll lose at home to Louisville, who always seems to play their best in late Feb/March (kinda the opposite of recently high-ranked Syracuse teams). So the prediction here is 13-5 as well.
3. Marquette. They also have a long winning streak at home, so if they can hold serve there over Pitt, ND, and Cuse, they just need to go 3-1 against a weaker slate of road team. I'm already on record saying I think they'll beat Pitt and Cuse at home, and I have no respect for ND, so 14-4 is within reach. But I don't think they'll do better than 2-2 in those road games, and even if they do, there's a fair shot they'll drop one of those tough ones at home. I think its a coin toss between 12-6 and 13-5 here.
4. Louisville. They're going to lose one, probably at Syracuse, even though their schedule is otherwise relatively soft. I'll go 13-5 here.
5. Connecticut. Maybe the easiest schedule of all these teams--they get Georgetown at home and their toughest road game left is Cincinnati, but otherwise they play a bunch of bottom-feeders. But they're too inconsistent to run the table and get to 14 wins. Seems like they should be thrilled with 12-6, but I'd put my money on 11-7.
6. Georgetown. I'd call it the most difficult schedule left, but that's in part because our home court advantage doesn't rate up there with somebody like Syracuse or Marquette, so even though those teams play as many quality teams as we do, the home/road balance is not in our favor. I think we'll split with Syracuse and go 2-1 vs. Conn/Cincy/Nova and I think everyone around here would have to be extremely pleased with that result. Throw in the DePaul and Rutgers gimmes and that's 13-5. An excellent season.
7. Notre Dame. @ Pitt, @ MU, @ Louisville? 11-7 is their ceiling and I could imagine 10-8 quite readily.
