seaweed
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 4,670
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Post by seaweed on Feb 16, 2013 10:56:31 GMT -5
wtf people, we are all alone in first and people are talking about struggling to finish 4th already?
we have nothing in front of us except opportunity, especially the opportunity to beat down our most hated mutherphucking foe twice. somebody please start realizing we are the big dog from here on out.
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hoyainspirit
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
When life puts that voodoo on me, music is my gris-gris.
Posts: 8,394
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Post by hoyainspirit on Feb 16, 2013 11:06:10 GMT -5
Does Pomeroy weigh more recent results more heavily in his rankings? I believe the answer to this is yes. The rankings are based on his "pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage". The primary inputs are adjusted O & D efficiencies, which are weighted for more recent games. Here is a Ratings Explanation he wrote in 2006.
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hoyas1995
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,327
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Post by hoyas1995 on Feb 16, 2013 11:26:37 GMT -5
Cronin is such a little dip but he's right on about Otto
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 16, 2013 14:31:07 GMT -5
Pitt very likely to lose. Marquette thumping them in second half. Up by 12 with 11 to go.
I think this is a good thing.
The way they are playing today, I would't say Pitt is a lock to win the rest of their games, no matter who they are playing.
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TBird41
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
"Roy! I Love All 7'2" of you Roy!"
Posts: 8,740
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Post by TBird41 on Feb 16, 2013 14:32:08 GMT -5
So, at this point, it looks like 5-1 guarantees us a piece of the regular season title, unless Marquette runs the table. We'd finish 14-4. Syracuse could finish no better than 14-4 bc they'd have lost to us at least once. Marquette has road games against SHU, Nova, SJU and Rutgers and home games against Cuse and ND. Louisville and Syracuse can't both finish 14-4 if we go 5-1 and Pitt Just picked up their fifth loss.
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 16, 2013 16:32:13 GMT -5
Its all ours…lets do this! Just win!
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
Posts: 10,355
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Post by Boz on Feb 16, 2013 20:12:11 GMT -5
This thread scares the bejeezus out of me.
But it had not interrupted our win streak, so maybe mojo is on the side of delusional optimism this season.
By all means, continue.
(If or when we lose though, I will blame all of you!) ;D
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KHoyaNYC
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,900
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Post by KHoyaNYC on Feb 16, 2013 21:02:26 GMT -5
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Post by HoyasAreHungry on Feb 16, 2013 21:54:00 GMT -5
Very impressive. Anyone want to argue we're not an elite team?
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 17, 2013 0:45:38 GMT -5
We're gonna pass Kentucky in two weeks. Top 5.
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Post by hoyaatheart55 on Feb 17, 2013 0:52:07 GMT -5
Talk about consistency!
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Just Cos
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Eat 'em up Hoyas
Posts: 1,506
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Post by Just Cos on Feb 17, 2013 1:02:23 GMT -5
Also highest rank is 7 for Georgetown and every other team is either 1 or 2.
I wouldn't have guessed Georgetown would be so high on that list. Very impressive.
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Post by hoyaatheart55 on Feb 17, 2013 2:13:38 GMT -5
Anyone know the last time we were a top 5 team?
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CAHoya07
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 3,598
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Post by CAHoya07 on Feb 17, 2013 3:47:46 GMT -5
Anyone know the last time we were a top 5 team? I am going to guess during December of the 2007-08 season, before we lost at Memphis. I believe we were ranked 4th at the time. I want to say Memphis was 3rd.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 17, 2013 4:46:28 GMT -5
Updated Pomeroy projections for expected wins through Saturday's games.
Marquette is now projected into third place after their Pittsburgh win. Hoyas expected wins edge up to 12.49, exactly tied with Pitt.
Syracuse 13.27 Louisville 13.05 Marquette 12.71 Georgetown 12.49 Pitt 12.49 UConn 10.37 Cinn. 9.79 ND 9.74 Villanova 9.52 St. Johns 8.80 Providence 8.66 Rutgers 5.18 Seton Hall 3.65 De Paul 3.03 South Florida 2.25
Expected likelihood of a Hoya win against
De Paul 92% at Syracuse 21% at UConn 49% Rutgers 90% at Villanova 51% Syracuse 46%
We have more 50/50 games (at UConn and Nova, home against Syracuse) than any other of the contenders.
One final non-Pomeroy thought - watch out for Providence. They had a lot of injuries early, but have now won four in a row and visually they have looked very good in the past few games. They play at Syracuse Wednesday, and I think they have a real shot at an upset. I would really like to avoid them at the BET.
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
Posts: 15,620
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Post by SirSaxa on Feb 17, 2013 7:59:42 GMT -5
Thanks for that info Chris. As for PC... yes, I've noticed too. And I like Ed Cooley. The better PC performs, the stronger our new conference will be. GO PC! JT2's Alma Mater.
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Post by Ranch Dressing on Feb 17, 2013 9:35:58 GMT -5
5 teams split by 0.78 wins. That tells me its a toss up and no sense in worrying too much until 1-2 games remaining.
Beat DePaul.
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rosslynhoya
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
Posts: 2,595
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Post by rosslynhoya on Feb 17, 2013 9:55:18 GMT -5
Anyone know the last time we were a top 5 team? I am going to guess during December of the 2007-08 season, before we lost at Memphis. I believe we were ranked 4th at the time. I want to say Memphis was 3rd. I believe this is correct. We only got as high as 8th when beating UConn before the skid began in 2008-09. We spent three weeks at 7th in 2010, e.g., when beating #2 Villanova in the thundersnow game. We hit 9th several times over the course of 2010-2012, but no higher.
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Post by wahoohoya on Feb 17, 2013 10:20:09 GMT -5
Updated Pomeroy projections for expected wins through Saturday's games. Marquette is now projected into third place after their Pittsburgh win. Hoyas expected wins edge up to 12.49, exactly tied with Pitt. Syracuse 13.27 Louisville 13.05 Marquette 12.71 Georgetown 12.49 Pitt 12.49 UConn 10.37 Cinn. 9.79 ND 9.74 Villanova 9.52 St. Johns 8.80 Providence 8.66 Rutgers 5.18 Seton Hall 3.65 De Paul 3.03 South Florida 2.25 Expected likelihood of a Hoya win against De Paul 92% at Syracuse 21% at UConn 49% Rutgers 90% at Villanova 51% Syracuse 46% We have more 50/50 games (at UConn and Nova, home against Syracuse) than any other of the contenders. One final non-Pomeroy thought - watch out for Providence. They had a lot of injuries early, but have now won four in a row and visually they have looked very good in the past few games. They play at Syracuse Wednesday, and I think they have a real shot at an upset. I would really like to avoid them at the BET. What does Pomeroy see in Syracuse? Does his model overweight ESPN hype?
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 17, 2013 10:28:41 GMT -5
IMO our floor is 13-5. I don't see us losing more than 2 more games and see us losing less than that.
Right now the only team in the top 5 that we would lose the tie breaker to would be pitt. If they lose to ND on Monday or @ St. John's on Saturday then I think we're safely in the double bye. They're not likely to lose any of their last 3: USF, Nova @ DePaul.
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