bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
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Post by bmartin on Feb 17, 2013 11:31:51 GMT -5
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 17, 2013 12:24:17 GMT -5
Updated Pomeroy projections for expected wins through Saturday's games. Marquette is now projected into third place after their Pittsburgh win. Hoyas expected wins edge up to 12.49, exactly tied with Pitt. Syracuse 13.27 Louisville 13.05 Marquette 12.71 Georgetown 12.49 Pitt 12.49 UConn 10.37 Cinn. 9.79 ND 9.74 Villanova 9.52 St. Johns 8.80 Providence 8.66 Rutgers 5.18 Seton Hall 3.65 De Paul 3.03 South Florida 2.25 Expected likelihood of a Hoya win against De Paul 92% at Syracuse 21% at UConn 49% Rutgers 90% at Villanova 51% Syracuse 46% We have more 50/50 games (at UConn and Nova, home against Syracuse) than any other of the contenders. One final non-Pomeroy thought - watch out for Providence. They had a lot of injuries early, but have now won four in a row and visually they have looked very good in the past few games. They play at Syracuse Wednesday, and I think they have a real shot at an upset. I would really like to avoid them at the BET. What does Pomeroy see in Syracuse? Does his model overweight ESPN hype? We all hate Syracuse, but they have the same record as us and an easier schedule. That's all there is to it. They have 4 games at home. In looking at the schedules, I have to admit, we have the toughest aside from Marquette.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2013 12:47:59 GMT -5
Syracuse faces 4 top 25 teams though… Us 2wice, Ville, Marquette (Away) and a suddenly hot Friars team that won 4 in a row including 2 top 25 opponents… They have a tough go at it as well..
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 17, 2013 13:37:21 GMT -5
What does Pomeroy see in Syracuse? Does his model overweight ESPN hype? We all hate Syracuse, but they have the same record as us and an easier schedule. That's all there is to it. They have 4 games at home. In looking at the schedules, I have to admit, we have the toughest aside from Marquette. Really I think Syracuse has the toughest schedule of the contenders. They're the only team that has to play 2 of the teams tied for first on the Road. They have 4 games against teams contending for the double bye: us 2x, Marquette, and Louisville. Marquette, Pitt, and Louisville have easier schedules than Syracuse and I'd put our schedule just on the easier side of Syracuse's. We only play them twice in terms of games against the top 5.
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Feb 17, 2013 13:42:18 GMT -5
Syracuse faces 4 top 25 teams though… Us 2wice, Ville, Marquette (Away) and a suddenly hot Friars team that won 4 in a row including 2 top 25 opponents… They have a tough go at it as well.. I happen to agree here. Maybe it's my rose colored glasses, but I don't think their schedule is significantly easier than ours. Take out the home and home with them and we have: Depaul, @uconn, Rutgers, @nova They have: Providence, @marquette, Louisville, Depaul Is that really that much easier, if at all? Those should be 4 wins for us. A loss in any of those games would be disappointing. @marquette (with their home court winning streak) and Louisville are very difficult games for them. Is Providence likely to break Cuse's home winning streak? Doubtful, but as some have pointed out, they are coming on strong recently and if anyone else watched their game against ND yesterday, they've got 3-4 guys who can be effective scorers on any given night. Bottom line is I like our chances.
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 17, 2013 13:47:34 GMT -5
Syracuse faces 4 top 25 teams though… Us 2wice, Ville, Marquette (Away) and a suddenly hot Friars team that won 4 in a row including 2 top 25 opponents… They have a tough go at it as well.. I happen to agree here. Maybe it's my rose colored glasses, but I don't think their schedule is significantly easier than ours. Take out the home and home with them and we have: Depaul, @uconn, Rutgers, @nova They have: Providence, @marquette, Louisville, Depaul Is that really that much easier? Those should be 4 wins for us. A loss in any of those games would be disappointing. @marquette (with their home court winning streak) and Louisville are very difficult games for them. Is Providence likely to break Cuse's home winning streak? Doubtful, but as some have pointed out, they are coming on strong recently and if anyone else watched their game against ND yesterday, they've got 3-4 guys who can be effective scorers on any given night. Bottom line is I like our chances. Cuse definitely has the hardest remaining schedule. Remember Providence only lost by 6 points in their first game against Syracuse. It was close through out. Providence is tougher than Rutgers especially with Carter out for the season, we both get depaul and Louisville and @ Marquette are harder than @ Uconn and @ Nova.
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Post by wahoohoya on Feb 17, 2013 14:03:41 GMT -5
Right - that's what I don't get. Even if you take away the other games, what has Syracuse done this year (relative to us) to suggest they should be a favorite against us at Verizon? Just curious why KenPom would rate them that much better than us.
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Post by HometownHoya on Feb 17, 2013 14:14:30 GMT -5
So we all know that if we win out we will be looking pretty but what would be the worst we could end up? (Just assuming we lose out) I got 7 but not sure if I did it right.
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GUJook97
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 5,445
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Post by GUJook97 on Feb 17, 2013 14:22:15 GMT -5
4 games at home is still 4 games at home. Syracuse hasn't lost at home since we beat them a couple of years ago. I definitely think we can do it again, but going by Pomeroy, home court is the edge they get. And, also, they have the 16th best offense and a good defense, we have the 99th rated offense. It is what it is.
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Post by wahoohoya on Feb 17, 2013 14:32:29 GMT -5
^ Wouldn't have guessed their offense was rated that high based on what I've seen this year. I think we match up well, but having Greg back sure would help (obvious statement I know).
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bmartin
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 2,459
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Post by bmartin on Feb 17, 2013 14:35:20 GMT -5
Pomeroy has Syracuse rated 3 or 4 points better than Georgetown so the game there is protected as a likely SU win (79%) but the game here is a toss-up. SU vs. Marquette and Louisville also are toss-ups. GU @ UConn & Villanova are toss-ups.
The difference in the Pomeroy projection is SU having a 40% probability of sweeping Georgetown, 50% chance of split, but only 10% of Georgetown sweep.
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Post by johnnysnowplow on Feb 17, 2013 14:37:42 GMT -5
Right - that's what I don't get. Even if you take away the other games, what has Syracuse done this year (relative to us) to suggest they should be a favorite against us at Verizon? Just curious why KenPom would rate them that much better than us. Because KenPom's predictions are based strictly on numbers. There's a set formula for computing predictions. Things that can't be measured with a concrete number are not taken into account, and in a team-oriented game like basketball, this seems silly to me. I spend hours on the site, but mostly as a tool to analyze past performance not predict future performance. Also, predicting the outcome of a game that will take place on 3/9 with 5 games in between is pure lunacy. There's a reason Vegas lines don't come out weeks in advance. I'll take a betting line for it's predictive value over KenPom anyday.
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Post by FrazierFanatic on Feb 17, 2013 14:43:26 GMT -5
So we all know that if we win out we will be looking pretty but what would be the worst we could end up? (Just assuming we lose out) I got 7 but not sure if I did it right. Curse you to damnation you jinxer! ;D
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 17, 2013 15:37:28 GMT -5
Right - that's what I don't get. Even if you take away the other games, what has Syracuse done this year (relative to us) to suggest they should be a favorite against us at Verizon? Just curious why KenPom would rate them that much better than us. Because KenPom's predictions are based strictly on numbers. There's a set formula for computing predictions. Things that can't be measured with a concrete number are not taken into account, and in a team-oriented game like basketball, this seems silly to me. I spend hours on the site, but mostly as a tool to analyze past performance not predict future performance. Also, predicting the outcome of a game that will take place on 3/9 with 5 games in between is pure lunacy. There's a reason Vegas lines don't come out weeks in advance. I'll take a betting line for it's predictive value over KenPom anyday. I read an article last year that said that the oddsmakers had become increasingly reliant on KenPom in setting their initial lines (sorry, no link). The prediction of the outcome of the 3/9 game is not lunacy, it merely reflects the sum of all games played in the NCAA by all teams so far this year. The odds will continue to evolve, and if we continue to play well, we might very well come into the final game as a slight favorite.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2013 16:00:58 GMT -5
A quick glance at Cuse’s sched and it appears their best win at home was either Nati or Notre Dame.. Last year Syracuse was head and shoulder above every body else in the BE so no surprise they didn’t lose a home game, but half of that team is gone.
Cuse is always going to be tough to beat at home but I don’t think it’s outside of the realm of possibility to think Ville or Us could go up there and get a W. Especially Ville, I would be very surprised if Cuse beats them a second time..
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Post by HoyaSinceBirth on Feb 17, 2013 16:04:10 GMT -5
A quick glance at Cuse’s sched and it appears their best win at home was either Nati or Notre Dame.. Last year Syracuse was head and shoulder above every body else in the BE so no surprise they didn’t lose a home game but half of that team is gone. Cuse is always going to be tough to beat at home but I don’t think it’s outside of the realm of possibility to think Ville or Us could go up there and get a W. Especially Ville, I would be very surprised if Cuse beats them a second time.. agreed. I could easily see Cuse with 3 more loses if not 4.
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Post by TrueHoyaBlue on Feb 18, 2013 21:36:11 GMT -5
Or Providence, with the way they're playing.
By the way, it's amazing what a difference three days makes, looking back to the original post. 7 teams with a chance at 14-4 are now down to 4 teams with that chance, and there are 4 games to go among those four teams. (SU-MU, L'ville-SU, GU-SU, SU-GU)
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Big Dog
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by Big Dog on Feb 18, 2013 22:06:16 GMT -5
Pitt is cooked in the race, notwithstanding the KenPom love affair. That is an excellent development for us.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,408
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 19, 2013 4:50:58 GMT -5
Updated Pomeroy anticipated wins as of Tuesday Morning
Syracuse 13.25 Louisville 13.14 Marquette 12.66 Hoyas 12.49 Pitt 11.52 ND 10.67 UConn 10.38 Cinn. 9.72 Nova 9.70 St Johns 8.82 Providence 8.65 Rutgers 5.12 S. Hall 3.66 De Paul 3.05 S. Fla. 2.15
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SirSaxa
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
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Post by SirSaxa on Feb 19, 2013 8:17:30 GMT -5
Sadly, 5 of the bottom 7 teams in the BE will be joining us in our new conference.
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