Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
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Post by Bando on Sept 5, 2008 16:29:16 GMT -5
With both conventions done, the talk here is probably only going to get more political over the next 2 months. With so many polls going around, I thought I'd mention the sites I use to follow everything. Feel free to critique these or add the sites you use. Real Clear Politics - probably have the best average national poll, probably the best site for seeing all polls from all races. Right now their average poll is Obama +2.6, their electoral count is Obama 238, McCain 174, Toss Up 126. Five Thirty Eight - Electoral projections based on state polls. Uses a complex formula that weights pollster reputation, sample size, state demographics, et al. to make state projections. Simulates the election 10,000 times after each update and uses those averages. Right now, Obama 310.6, McCain 227.4 ElectoralVote.com - simply uses the last available poll in each state to project the electoral tally. Interesting, but changes wildly sometimes. Right now, Obama 301, McCain 224, Ties 13. |
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Post by PushyGuyFanClub on Sept 5, 2008 16:37:29 GMT -5
Those sites are all incorrect. Idiot. :-)
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thornski
Century (over 100 posts)
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Post by thornski on Sept 5, 2008 16:37:40 GMT -5
Like all those sites - wasn't as familiar with 538, but it's very very interesting. Also, Electionprojection.com is pretty solid, but unless you make a small donation it only updates once per week. He was pretty darn accurate in 04 (only had IA & WI wrong) and in 06 (I think he predicted each Dem Senate pickup correctly).
Right now he has it at 278-260 Obama, Dems +5 in the Senate, +9 in the House.
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Post by williambraskyiii on Sept 5, 2008 16:59:17 GMT -5
Thanks for those Bando - very informative.
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Elvado
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
Posts: 6,080
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Post by Elvado on Sept 5, 2008 17:39:47 GMT -5
Good information.
Do any of them account for what has historically been the 5-7% lag between Obama's pol numbers and actual vote totals.
Throughout his battle with Mrs. Clinton, he routinely underperformed his polling.
Not baiting anyone. Serious question.
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Boz
Blue & Gray (over 10,000 posts)
123 Fireballs!
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Post by Boz on Sept 5, 2008 18:12:05 GMT -5
I only care what Vegas says. What do those numbers look like? Bando's sites are all pretty good....but probably worthless.  |
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Post by strummer8526 on Sept 5, 2008 18:21:50 GMT -5
Dammit Boz, there goes the thread. If we mention Vegas one more time, I will be physically unable to restrain myself from actually placing large, illegal bets on this election.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 6, 2008 10:48:44 GMT -5
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hifigator
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by hifigator on Sept 6, 2008 12:22:13 GMT -5
Try moveon.org and see what they have to say.
Strangely enough, a link from geocities was drastically different.
Edited.--Admin
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 6, 2008 12:43:55 GMT -5
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vcjack
Diamond Hoya (over 2500 posts)
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Post by vcjack on Sept 6, 2008 15:26:08 GMT -5
Very nice sites, and those numbers underscore what we already knew, that this is Obama's to lose. You have to like his chances in all of the states that went for Kerry in 04 and he doesn't have to win all the battleground states in order to get to the White House
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Bando
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
I've got some regrets!
Posts: 2,431
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Post by Bando on Sept 6, 2008 18:35:21 GMT -5
Very nice sites, and those numbers underscore what we already knew, that this is Obama's to lose. You have to like his chances in all of the states that went for Kerry in 04 and he doesn't have to win all the battleground states in order to get to the White House I've liked that about Obama's chances as well: he has a lot more paths to 270 than Kerry had. He can lose Ohio and Florida and still win the election if he picks up Iowa (which is pretty much in the bag), New Mexico, and Colorado. And although I appreciate that he's competitive in places like North Carolina, the Dakotas, and Montana, they're not really going to be the winning factor either way (that is, if he wins those states, he's probably already won the election). |
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Sept 6, 2008 20:12:45 GMT -5
Pollster.com also have some nice graphical summaries of polling data for those of us who like things to be very visual. www.pollster.com/ |
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DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by DFW HOYA on Sept 6, 2008 20:22:43 GMT -5
Electorally speaking, Obama could top 300 electoral votes if he can push voter turnout.
Many of these surveys at 1 and 2 points hinge on "likely" or "registered" voters, but a lot more states come into play if the campaign can really ratchet up voter registration. It is not clear that a higher voter turnout adds significantly more to McCain's numbers.
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 7, 2008 7:50:08 GMT -5
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EasyEd
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 7, 2008 9:57:32 GMT -5
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Post by StPetersburgHoya (Inactive) on Sept 7, 2008 11:13:22 GMT -5
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Post by jerseyhoya34 on Sept 7, 2008 11:45:23 GMT -5
The national polls are not going to mean much this election, and Obama's campaign does not pay them much attention. Obama has his block of states in good shape right now (see Pollster). The question is whether he can put together the 9 electoral votes it will take for him to win the election. A 269-269 tie will go to the House, which Dems will control.
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EasyEd
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Post by EasyEd on Sept 7, 2008 13:29:21 GMT -5
Gallup, McCain up by 3. www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspxI look for the race, after a few more days, will be essentially even but anyone who doesn't think the +3 or +4 in some of the polls for McCain will not also affect the state's electoral races is kidding themselves. If you see a five point shift national shift out of the Republican convention and don't see some of the toss-up state races not changed, it would be amazing. |
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DFW HOYA
Platinum Hoya (over 5000 posts)
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Post by DFW HOYA on Sept 7, 2008 15:22:54 GMT -5
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