HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 11, 2013 16:49:24 GMT -5
I have found the Louisville fans to be a great addition to the conference and am quite sorry that they will not remain in the Big East.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 11, 2013 16:47:24 GMT -5
With 15 league teams, the unbalanced 18-game regular season Big East schedule creates significant disparities between teams' in-conference strength of schedule. I reviewed the regular season conferences schedules of the league's three 14-4 teams: Georgetown, Louisville, and Marquette. Some interesting facts noted below lead me to conclude that Georgetown's conference record of 14-4 is substantially more impressive than both Louisville's and Marquette's 14-4 conference records. Combined Conference Records of 2x Opponents Georgetown 38-34 (Cuse, Quette, SJU, Rutgers) Marquette 32-40 (Pitt, USF, GTown, SH) Louisville 28-44 (SH, ND, USF, Cuse) Combined Conference Records of Away Game Opponents Georgetown 81-81 (Cuse, Quette, SJU, Rutgers, USF, ND, Cincy, Nova, UConn) Marquette 78-84 (Pitt, USF, GTown, SH, Cincy, Ville, Nova, Rutgers, SJU) Louisville 69-93 (SH, ND, USF, Cuse, UConn, Nova, GTown, Rutgers, DePaul) Relative to Marquette and Louisville, Georgetown had the tougher 2x in-conference matchups and also played tougher competition on the road in conference. I hope this bodes well for us in the BET and NCAAs. This is a helpful piece of analysis. Our in conference road wins will be viewed very favorably by the Selection Committee. Of course this would all be moot if we had just won at South Florida. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 8, 2013 4:48:31 GMT -5
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 7, 2013 20:37:33 GMT -5
Leaving from DFW tomorrow - 101 Row B Also flying out of DFW tomorrow, making the Syracuse pilgrimage for perhaps the last time. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 7, 2013 8:11:56 GMT -5
Pomeroy Expected Wins as of Thursday morning.
Louisville 13.89
Marquette 13.70
Hoyas 13.53
Pitt 11.90
Syracuse 11.47
ND 11.11
Nova 10.0
UConn 9.66
Prov 9.34
Cinn 8.90
St Johns 8.30
Rutgers 4.33
S. Hall 3.67
S Fla. 3.10
De Paul 2.10
My forecast
Hoyas 14-4 (1 Seed)
Louisville 14-4 (2 Seed)
Marquette 13-5 (3 Seed)
Pitt 12-6 (4 Seed)
Syracuse 11-7 (5 Seed)
ND 11-7 (6 Seed)
Prov. 10-8 (7 Seed)
Nova 10-8 (8 Seed)
St Johns 9-9 (9 Seed)
Cinn. 9-9 (10 Seed)
UConn 9-9
Rutgers 5-13 (11 Seed)
S. Hall 3-15 (12 Seed)
S. Fla. 3-15 (13 Seed)
De Paul 2-16 (14 Seed)
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 6, 2013 6:17:39 GMT -5
These are the remaining conference and seeding outcomes.
Here are the win possibilities and the finish/seeedings
Hoyas 2-0, other results irrelevant, Hoyas win conference outright and are 1 seed.
Hoyas 1-1, Louisville and Marquette 1-0. 3 way tie for conference, Hoyas are one seed because of miniconference performance.
Hoyas 1-1, Louisville 1-0, Marquette 0-1. Two way tie for conference with Louisville. Hoyas #1 seed because of win over Louisville.
Hoyas 1-1, Louisville 0-1, Marquette 1-0. Two way tie for conference with Marquette. Hoyas #1 seed due to win over Louisville.
Hoyas 1-1, Louisville and Marquette 0-1. Hoyas win conference and #1 seed outright.
Hoyas 0-2. Louisville and Marquette each 1-0. Louisville and Marquette tie for first and Louisville is the 1 seed. Hoyas finish 3rd and have 3 seed.
Hoyas 0-2, Louisville 1-0 and Marquette 0-1. Louisville wins conference and is one seed. Hoyas tie for second and are two seed.
Hoyas 0-2, Louisville 0-1, Marquette 1-0. Marquette wins conference outright. Hoyas are two seed.
Hoyas 0-2. Louisville 0-1 and Marquette 0-1. Three way tie for conference. Hoyas are one seed because of miniconference performance.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 6, 2013 5:48:27 GMT -5
Pomeroy Expected wins as of Wednesday Morning.
Hoyas 14.11
Louisville 13.89
Marquette 13.69
Pitt 11.90
Syracuse 11.41
ND 11.10
UConn 10.45
Vill. 9.44
Prov 9.30
Cinn 8.91
St Johns 8.31
Rutgers 4.34
S. Hall 3.66
S. Fla 2.34
De Paul 2.14
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 5, 2013 4:09:17 GMT -5
Pomeroy Projected Wins as of Tuesday morning.
Hoyas 14.11
Louisville 13.90
Marquette 13.39
Pitt 11.90
Syracuse 11.41
Notre Dame 10.91
UConn 10.45
Nova 9.44
Prov. 9.10
Cinn. 8.91
St Johns 8.53
Rutgers 4.61
S. Hall 3.86
S. Fla 2.34
De Paul 2.14
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 16:22:01 GMT -5
Im guessing we're pulling for Cronin tonight? It depends, the one positive of a Louisville win is that it absolutely guarantees us a one seed in the BET if we win one of our last two games. If Louisville were to lose their next two it could hypothetically pull Pitt into the tiebreaker calculation. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 13:21:34 GMT -5
Sagarin provides a useful example to show the differences between a margin of victory based metric and a pure "won/loss, who did you beat and I don't care by how much metric" since it combines the two methodologies. Sagarin has a "Predictor" component in which we rank 14th and which is based on margin of victor. We are 16th in Pomeroy which is all margin of victory, but the difference between 14th and 16th is a tiny amount. Sagarin's other component is called ELO and does not consider margin of victory, and we rank 4th by that metric. To get a good sense of just how the start of the season hurt us follow the link to ESPN's BPI page for Georgetown which helpfully lists individual game BPIs (BPI is their attempt to play the margin of victory game with a couple of twists) espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/46/year/2013You can see the impact of some of our early season cupcake games where we did not crush the cupcake. MOV systems also aren't very impressed by the Indiana game -- because it ignores the fact that it went to OT. That's just a 10 point loss to it -- better than beating Duquesne by less than 10 but not as impressive as I think a lot of voters feel. If Pomeroy was just a Margin of Victory system, you could deal with the overtime problem by suppressing the overtime results to represent a one point victory or even a tie. I emailed KenPom after the game and suggested as much. The email I received back said that doing so would screw up the per possession efficiencies that are at the core of their team ratings and score estimates, as well as the individual player metrics. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 12:26:20 GMT -5
I think it is very likely that Duke loses at the Dean Dome on Saturday night. That should move us permanently ahead of both ACC teams if we keep winning. But looking at anybody else at this point means nothing. We've got an enormous challenge ahead now of as many as 5 straight games against NCAA tournament-caliber teams. We're talking about winning all of them. And that is the appropriate perspective. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 12:24:32 GMT -5
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 12:13:08 GMT -5
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 11:47:05 GMT -5
Sagarin provides a useful example to show the differences between a margin of victory based metric and a pure "won/loss, who did you beat and I don't care by how much metric" since it combines the two methodologies. Sagarin has a "Predictor" component in which we rank 14th and which is based on margin of victor. We are 16th in Pomeroy which is all margin of victory, but the difference between 14th and 16th is a tiny amount. Sagarin's other component is called ELO and does not consider margin of victory, and we rank 4th by that metric. To get a good sense of just how the start of the season hurt us follow the link to ESPN's BPI page for Georgetown which helpfully lists individual game BPIs (BPI is their attempt to play the margin of victory game with a couple of twists) espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/46/year/2013You can see the impact of some of our early season cupcake games where we did not crush the cupcake. |
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 4, 2013 6:34:51 GMT -5
Pomeroy Expected Wins as of Monday morning.
Hoyas 14.11
Louisville 13.79
Marquette 13.39
Pitt 11.90
Syracuse 11.41
ND 10.91
UConn 10.45
Nova 9.44
Prov. 9.1
Cinn. 9.02
St Johns 8.53
Rutgers 4.61
Seton Hall 3.86
SFla. 2.34
DePaul 2.14
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 3, 2013 6:56:38 GMT -5
Pomeroy Expected wins as of Sunday morning.
Hoyas 14.12
Louisville 13.79
Marquette 13.39
Pitt 11.78
Syracuse 11.41
ND 10.91
UConn 10.46
Nova 9.55
Providence 9.10
Cinn. 9.03
St Johns 8.53
Rutgers 4.61
Seton Hall 3.86
De Paul 2.55
S. Fla. 1.91
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 2, 2013 15:22:23 GMT -5
The Sunday final used to be the norm.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 2, 2013 1:28:24 GMT -5
Jim Master trying to play man defense against David Wingate in the 1984 national semifinal.
Dickie Beal trying to bring the ball upcourt against Gene Smith in the same game.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Mar 1, 2013 4:51:48 GMT -5
Thank you John.
I wonder how many of those 10 million views are mine.
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HoyaChris
Golden Hoya (over 1000 posts)
Posts: 1,414
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Post by HoyaChris on Feb 28, 2013 6:07:45 GMT -5
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