24-25 Hoya Basketball

[SFHoya99]

Oct 7, 2024 12:37:24 GMT -5 dense said:

That shows me he has never seen Peavy play. Peavy is a team first guy through and through. He didn't live up to his high school billing but he became a great player who probably will make a NBA roster because of his willingness to do the little things and play great D.

His argument is basically "OMG, why would anyone good to go Georgetown except to selfishly jack up shots!"

Ignoring that players don't suddenly go from a defensive, team player to ballhog overnight.

[DFW HOYA]

Oct 7, 2024 12:57:53 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

His argument is basically "OMG, why would anyone good to go Georgetown except to selfishly jack up shots!"

Ignoring that players don't suddenly go from a defensive, team player to ballhog overnight.

Putting NIL aside, grad transfers are essentially on audition to see if they can land somewhere after college, so you could expect grad transfers to be more aggressive in getting shots: certainly we saw this with the likes of Rice, Mozone, and Massoud. Cam Spencer passed on Georgetown to play for a championship at UConn, and it worked out for him, but for everyone else, they have to make the most of it while they still can.

The more salient quote from the article is as follows: "It looks like Georgetown has too many players who want to be the star and not enough players who are there because they will accept a role." This may well be a mere assumption but we haven't seen enough... check that, we haven't seen anything of this team to determine if there are true role players that will contribute in situations rather than cast a glance at the transfer portal. Ed Croswell went from 2.3 PPG and 1.9 RPG at Providence to 13.3 and 7.5 by his third season. Does this roster have the players willing to build a resume like this, or is it the opposite? We'll find out in a month, but not before that.

[SFHoya99]

Oct 7, 2024 13:43:23 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

"It looks like Georgetown has too many players who want to be the star and not enough players who are there because they will accept a role."

If someone is going to make an assertion, then it is up to them to back it up. What evidence is there that this rosters has too many players who want to be the star?

I've seen interviews of all the incoming guys. What part of Jordan Burks' comment that he really takes pride in defense or Micah Peavy's long career of playing as a defensive force scream "wants to be a star"? Have you watched Mack's interviews? Does he seem like he's all about himself? Where the quote from Curtis Williams that he's here to dominate?

Oh, sure, sometimes people are just saying that, but the article wasn't "with all the new guys, we don't know how they'll mesh."

Nope, this was an assertion that there are a lot of players on this team that will damn the team with their selfish play. Nevermind that only one of these players is anywhere near a "grad" transfer needing to showcase themselves for the next job this year.

Do we know if any of these guys will stay and develop? Of course not. But why the assumption that none of them will? And since DePaul has 11 new guys, and more of them upperclassmen and grad transfers, why is this not more of a concern for DePaul?

[dense]

Oct 7, 2024 12:57:53 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Oct 7, 2024 12:37:24 GMT -5 dense said:

That shows me he has never seen Peavy play. Peavy is a team first guy through and through. He didn't live up to his high school billing but he became a great player who probably will make a NBA roster because of his willingness to do the little things and play great D.

His argument is basically "OMG, why would anyone good to go Georgetown except to selfishly jack up shots!"

Ignoring that players don't suddenly go from a defensive, team player to ballhog overnight.

Exactly 💯

[dense]

DePaul's new guys were all decent players at mid majors. I dont see Skogman, Benson or D'Amico being anymore different they they were at previous spots. JJ Traynor and Isiah Rivera are ok players but they were on bad teams too. I don't rate Holtzman as a miracle worker coach. He is a decent coach. I think Depaul maybe wins 2 games at most.

[jwp91]

Oct 7, 2024 14:10:02 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Oct 7, 2024 13:43:23 GMT -5 DFW HOYA said:

"It looks like Georgetown has too many players who want to be the star and not enough players who are there because they will accept a role."

If someone is going to make an assertion, then it is up to them to back it up. What evidence is there that this rosters has too many players who want to be the star?

I've seen interviews of all the incoming guys. What part of Jordan Burks' comment that he really takes pride in defense or Micah Peavy's long career of playing as a defensive force scream "wants to be a star"? Have you watched Mack's interviews? Does he seem like he's all about himself? Where the quote from Curtis Williams that he's here to dominate?

Oh, sure, sometimes people are just saying that, but the article wasn't "with all the new guys, we don't know how they'll mesh."

Nope, this was an assertion that there are a lot of players on this team that will damn the team with their selfish play. Nevermind that only one of these players is anywhere near a "grad" transfer needing to showcase themselves for the next job this year.

Do we know if any of these guys will stay and develop? Of course not. But why the assumption that none of them will? And since DePaul has 11 new guys, and more of them upperclassmen and grad transfers, why is this not more of a concern for DePaul?

Agree. I think noting that we have two players with a history of 30%+ usage is fair. That is high. I expect it to continue to be high but perhaps not as high as their usage last year combined. Hopefully, both will see the need to involve their teammates especially for easy buckets.

[SFHoya99]

Oct 7, 2024 15:13:11 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Agree. I think noting that we have two players with a history of 30%+ usage is fair. That is high. I expect it to continue to be high but perhaps not as high as their usage last year combined. Hopefully, both will see the need to involve their teammates especially for easy buckets.

Yes, managing how Mack and Epps play together is going to be a key part of the season. Of course, having redundancy also means that foul trouble, injuries and simple rests are less negatively impactful. Every team should have multiple ball handlers -- we just have two that have been "the man."

There is a potential clash -- neither is big enough to play in the NBA as a two (even if NBA right now is somewhat far to fixate on). But this is hardly the first time this has occurred, and I'm more worried about defense than them meshing on offense. To be honest, given how little help Epps got last year, it has to be an upgrade at the other guard.

The bigger thing to me is simply the stretching on these players' motivations and frankly character. Something tells me the transfers into Marquette are not seen as selfish glory hunters looking to sacrifice team goals for personal gain.

And especially since I don't know who on this roster has any rep as a ball controlling player who doesn't do things off ball. I mean, even a player like Mulready is known for his defense, and that was in AAU and high school games!

I don't think Mack and Epps combine for 60% usage, but I am sure it will be high -- between 50-60%. Still, because they are probably going to combine for 10 assists or so a game, that means about 15% of that is on assists, which is not quite the same as a shot or turnover.

I'd be there's plenty to go around for the other three slots out there to grab about 20% each. And given it is historically a defense first player, freshmen, a 3 & D wing (we hope) ... I'm not really sure that's as big a deal as made out.

So yeah, I could see Mack and Epps fighting over that lead spot at some point ... or not. And either way, who else on this team is going to create? It's not like they aren't going to get their shots. I'm not really worried about Micah Peavy thinking he can be a 20 ppg scorer or something. And I'll be estatic if we have a freshman that offensively capable.

[dense]

Oct 7, 2024 17:10:15 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Oct 7, 2024 15:13:11 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Agree. I think noting that we have two players with a history of 30%+ usage is fair. That is high. I expect it to continue to be high but perhaps not as high as their usage last year combined. Hopefully, both will see the need to involve their teammates especially for easy buckets.

Yes, managing how Mack and Epps play together is going to be a key part of the season. Of course, having redundancy also means that foul trouble, injuries and simple rests are less negatively impactful. Every team should have multiple ball handlers -- we just have two that have been "the man."

There is a potential clash -- neither is big enough to play in the NBA as a two (even if NBA right now is somewhat far to fixate on). But this is hardly the first time this has occurred, and I'm more worried about defense than them meshing on offense. To be honest, given how little help Epps got last year, it has to be an upgrade at the other guard.

The bigger thing to me is simply the stretching on these players' motivations and frankly character. Something tells me the transfers into Marquette are not seen as selfish glory hunters looking to sacrifice team goals for personal gain.

And especially since I don't know who on this roster has any rep as a ball controlling player who doesn't do things off ball. I mean, even a player like Mulready is known for his defense, and that was in AAU and high school games!

I don't think Mack and Epps combine for 60% usage, but I am sure it will be high -- between 50-60%. Still, because they are probably going to combine for 10 assists or so a game, that means about 15% of that is on assists, which is not quite the same as a shot or turnover.

I'd be there's plenty to go around for the other three slots out there to grab about 20% each. And given it is historically a defense first player, freshmen, a 3 & D wing (we hope) ... I'm not really sure that's as big a deal as made out.

So yeah, I could see Mack and Epps fighting over that lead spot at some point ... or not. And either way, who else on this team is going to create? It's not like they aren't going to get their shots. I'm not really worried about Micah Peavy thinking he can be a 20 ppg scorer or something. And I'll be estatic if we have a freshman that offensively capable.

Talking to that guy on burner ball. He basically pulled his assessment out his ass

[hoyasaxa2003]

I would also add that while at Illinois as a freshman, Jayden Epps usage stats were very reasonable and not high for a guard (% Possessions was 20.1, % shots was 24.1).

Obviously, Epps' usage was way higher last year, but I really think that is in large part because he was the last and best option in most situations. Did he take some bad shots at bad moments? Yes. Was he the only person who could create for himself? Yes. Hopefully that won't be true anymore with Mack on the team.

I recognize Illinois was a good team and Epps was a freshman, but Epps' stats from Illinois make me feel better about him not being a ball-hog with Mack. Usually, the guys who are serial ball-hogs will have higher usage stats than Epps had at Illinois, even if they're playing in more limited time.

(Lastly, I would add that even at such a high usage, Epps' efficiency rating was 100.8--not spectacular, but not horrible like Primo Spears, for example. If his usage goes down, his efficiency should go up, which should make him a more valuable player for us.)

[EtomicB]

10 - Georgetown

I expect the Hoyas to reach the NCAA Tournament under Ed Cooley, but this doesn't look like the roster that's going to get there. It's Cooley's second season and a big jump in production should be the expectation. Georgetown won just nine games last season; I think it gets to at least 14 in Year 2. Jayden Epps (18.5 ppg) returns for his junior season. He'll likely flirt with leading the Big East in scoring, though I suspect Harvard transfer Malik Mack winds up being the most important player for the Hoyas. TCU transfer Micah Peavy should also contribute significantly to what I expect to be a borderline top-100 team. (Which would be huge! G'town ranked 192 at KenPom.) Cooley's defense has to improve significantly to change its standing in the league. That remains TBD.

[jwp91]

Oct 7, 2024 17:10:15 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

Oct 7, 2024 15:13:11 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Agree. I think noting that we have two players with a history of 30%+ usage is fair. That is high. I expect it to continue to be high but perhaps not as high as their usage last year combined. Hopefully, both will see the need to involve their teammates especially for easy buckets.

Yes, managing how Mack and Epps play together is going to be a key part of the season. Of course, having redundancy also means that foul trouble, injuries and simple rests are less negatively impactful. Every team should have multiple ball handlers -- we just have two that have been "the man."

There is a potential clash -- neither is big enough to play in the NBA as a two (even if NBA right now is somewhat far to fixate on). But this is hardly the first time this has occurred, and I'm more worried about defense than them meshing on offense. To be honest, given how little help Epps got last year, it has to be an upgrade at the other guard.

The bigger thing to me is simply the stretching on these players' motivations and frankly character. Something tells me the transfers into Marquette are not seen as selfish glory hunters looking to sacrifice team goals for personal gain.

And especially since I don't know who on this roster has any rep as a ball controlling player who doesn't do things off ball. I mean, even a player like Mulready is known for his defense, and that was in AAU and high school games!

I don't think Mack and Epps combine for 60% usage, but I am sure it will be high -- between 50-60%. Still, because they are probably going to combine for 10 assists or so a game, that means about 15% of that is on assists, which is not quite the same as a shot or turnover.

I'd be there's plenty to go around for the other three slots out there to grab about 20% each. And given it is historically a defense first player, freshmen, a 3 & D wing (we hope) ... I'm not really sure that's as big a deal as made out.

So yeah, I could see Mack and Epps fighting over that lead spot at some point ... or not. And either way, who else on this team is going to create? It's not like they aren't going to get their shots. I'm not really worried about Micah Peavy thinking he can be a 20 ppg scorer or something. And I'll be estatic if we have a freshman that offensively capable.

I did an analysis last Spring of the Elite 8 and added the usage % of the two highest players per team. As I recall, the highest in the elite 8 was roughly 53%. I expect Mack + Epps’s usage to be > 53%. If it goes too much over 60%, I think the imbalance will mean that we are really struggling. Hopefully, the effectiveness of one other player (maybe Sorber or Fielder) will keep the combined usage of Mack and Epps in check.

[FrazierFanatic]

Oct 8, 2024 14:00:14 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

10 - Georgetown

I expect the Hoyas to reach the NCAA Tournament under Ed Cooley, but this doesn't look like the roster that's going to get there. It's Cooley's second season and a big jump in production should be the expectation. Georgetown won just nine games last season; I think it gets to at least 14 in Year 2. Jayden Epps (18.5 ppg) returns for his junior season. He'll likely flirt with leading the Big East in scoring, though I suspect Harvard transfer Malik Mack winds up being the most important player for the Hoyas. TCU transfer Micah Peavy should also contribute significantly to what I expect to be a borderline top-100 team. (Which would be huge! G'town ranked 192 at KenPom.) Cooley's defense has to improve significantly to change its standing in the league. That remains TBD.

I would certainly be satisfied with becoming a team around #100 this season, would be a big jump with a future that has a lot of very young talent.

[EtomicB]

Oct 7, 2024 15:13:11 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

Oct 7, 2024 14:10:02 GMT -5 SFHoya99 said:

If someone is going to make an assertion, then it is up to them to back it up. What evidence is there that this rosters has too many players who want to be the star?

I've seen interviews of all the incoming guys. What part of Jordan Burks' comment that he really takes pride in defense or Micah Peavy's long career of playing as a defensive force scream "wants to be a star"? Have you watched Mack's interviews? Does he seem like he's all about himself? Where the quote from Curtis Williams that he's here to dominate?

Oh, sure, sometimes people are just saying that, but the article wasn't "with all the new guys, we don't know how they'll mesh."

Nope, this was an assertion that there are a lot of players on this team that will damn the team with their selfish play. Nevermind that only one of these players is anywhere near a "grad" transfer needing to showcase themselves for the next job this year.

Do we know if any of these guys will stay and develop? Of course not. But why the assumption that none of them will? And since DePaul has 11 new guys, and more of them upperclassmen and grad transfers, why is this not more of a concern for DePaul?

Agree. I think noting that we have two players with a history of 30%+ usage is fair. That is high. I expect it to continue to be high but perhaps not as high as their usage last year combined. Hopefully, both will see the need to involve their teammates especially for easy buckets.

IMHO this shouldn't be up to individual players, the offensive system/sets should automatically involve many players especially if the team has bigs capable of facilitating.

By putting the ball in the hands of the bigs it will force Epps & Mack to learn to play without the ball in their hands which will help the team grow faster in both the short & long term.

[kettlehill]

The article shows that the writer(s) knows the roster and knows how Cooley's teams like to play. Otherwise, statements like: "His best teams thrive because they have unselfish players, but this team looks like the antithesis of that" are just plain stupid. What evidence is there that this is a selfish group? BS.

[SFHoya99]

Oct 8, 2024 14:34:37 GMT -5 jwp91 said:

I did an analysis last Spring of the Elite 8 and added the usage % of the two highest players per team. As I recall, the highest in the elite 8 was roughly 53%. I expect Mack + Epps’s usage to be > 53%. If it goes too much over 60%, I think the imbalance will mean that we are really struggling. Hopefully, the effectiveness of one other player (maybe Sorber or Fielder) will keep the combined usage of Mack and Epps in check.

Well, combined, but on separate teams last year, they basically hit 60%, so I don't think going over 60% is very likely. If I had to pick a number, I'd probably peg it at 56%, but my hope is that the combined shot percentage is lower than that. I don't mind if they are assisting jointly at a high level; but we need to get some scoring from somewhere else.

I will say that Cooley has historically loves to play through the post. He always has a big over 20% but it's pretty common to be in the mid-20s in either usage or shot (if the turnovers are low, a 25% shot and 20% usage is just says the dude takes care of the ball).

I expect a very healthy amount of pick and roll, plus that lob over a fronting player that his teams do all the time, plus a decent amount of Sorber high post. He really tried to do this last year with Cook, but Cook just really lacked the skill set. I think we see a whole lot less freestyling dribble drive and more interaction with the post. Especially with all of them being good passers.

[78HOYA78]

Are we assuming all teams will play us man to man. No pick and roll in zone coverage?? Hopefully our bigs can command a double team then look for the kick out or easy pass down low.

[78HOYA78]

Question: We are about a month out with 6 games in the month of November. Has any heard of any scrimmages or are they just beating up on themselves. Or did I miss the news.

[hoyasaxa2003]

Oct 9, 2024 12:19:23 GMT -5 78HOYA78 said:

Are we assuming all teams will play us man to man. No pick and roll in zone coverage?? Hopefully our bigs can command a double team then look for the kick out or easy pass down low.

I am sure we will hit zone at times, but in the modern game with good three point shooting, it's hard to play zone for extened periods of time unless the opposing team cannot shoot from three well (and even then it creates openings for even bad-shooting teams). There may be websites that track this, but if I had to guess, our opponents will be man to man 85% or more of the time.

It will be interesting to see what Syracuse does.

[SFHoya99]

Oct 8, 2024 14:00:14 GMT -5 EtomicB said:

10 - Georgetown

I expect the Hoyas to reach the NCAA Tournament under Ed Cooley, but this doesn't look like the roster that's going to get there. It's Cooley's second season and a big jump in production should be the expectation. Georgetown won just nine games last season; I think it gets to at least 14 in Year 2. Jayden Epps (18.5 ppg) returns for his junior season. He'll likely flirt with leading the Big East in scoring, though I suspect Harvard transfer Malik Mack winds up being the most important player for the Hoyas. TCU transfer Micah Peavy should also contribute significantly to what I expect to be a borderline top-100 team. (Which would be huge! G'town ranked 192 at KenPom.) Cooley's defense has to improve significantly to change its standing in the league. That remains TBD.

It's really hard to argue with that assessment. Especially from a national perspective, where the risk that Epps doesn't improve his efficiency, Mack doesn't translate easily and the freshmen struggle with being freshmen, there's not enough shooting ... there's so much risk that to predict higher seems a bit crazy.

And yet ... there's real upside this year there simply wasn't last year. I don't think it is particularly likely we hit our full potential because those risks above (along with the usual bugaboos like injuries) are simply too numerous for it all fall right.

But Micah Peavy is a legit top defender in college basketball. Malik Mack lit up the major conference teams he played and brings a second player to the team that can create their own shot, something that we were desperately missing when Epps was out or struggling, and frankly contributed to a lot of the forced shots and late game failures because everyone knew where the ball was going. And Sorber and Fielder and Halaifonua have the talent to significantly outplay Cook and ... no one.

It's too many ifs, for sure.

But you couldn't paint that level of upside last year. Styles came in with Curtis Williams like stats (if a better freshman pedigree), not Peavy's extended excellence. We heard about Epps' scoring in Kenner, but the best we could really wish for in terms of upside was that the team would be really good from three, upset guys and that Cooley would magick some toughness and defense. There were a lot of ifs then ... but the best case scenario was to cobble together a six wins or something by shooting 40%+ from three, on the backs of Jay Heath and Ish Massoud.

There's still a lot of ifs ... but having three young centers (even if one is likely out for a while) taller than 6'8" and with strong pedigrees, having All-Defense team level wing defender, having basically two Epps instead of one (or better!) -- the best case scenario on this team is actually really good.

We aren't likely to reach it for all the reasons listed above. But it's a real difference that the things that can go right can fundamentally go more right than they could have gone last year. There was no way Jay Heath or Ish Massoud was going to be a good defender. There was no way Supreme Cook could handle all the big man work. There was no upside to the bench beyond a little bit with Brumbaugh -- but guys like Bristol were who they were and the fact that we had to play Bacote quite a bit tells you everything. Curtis Williams and Mulready will be better than Bacote simply because Bacote was a worse defender than Heath. And that's hard to do.

[SFHoya99]

Oct 9, 2024 12:19:23 GMT -5 78HOYA78 said:

Are we assuming all teams will play us man to man. No pick and roll in zone coverage?? Hopefully our bigs can command a double team then look for the kick out or easy pass down low.

Sorber, Fielder and Halaifonua all seem pretty built to perform well at the high point. All have a jumper, can dribble a bit and all are good passers.

They are young, so it's still going to be tough. But we have a weapon to attack it, I think.